Xiaoyi Mu - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by Xiaoyi Mu
Journal of Commodity Markets, Jun 1, 2021
This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the ad... more This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the addition of a cover page and metadata, and formatting for readability, but it is not yet the definitive version of record. This version will undergo additional copyediting, typesetting and review before it is published in its final form, but we are providing this version to give early visibility of the article. Please note that, during the production process, errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain.
The Energy Journal, Oct 1, 2011
We thank Kevin Forbs, Ian Lange, Zhen Zhu, two anonymous referees, the journal editor James Smith... more We thank Kevin Forbs, Ian Lange, Zhen Zhu, two anonymous referees, the journal editor James Smith and other seminar participants at University of Stirling and University of Dundee for helpful comments, Audrey McLaughlin for helping us proofread the paper. Xiaoyi acknowledges the travel grant from the Carnegie Trust. All errors remain our own.
Social Science Research Network, 2012
Operations research proceedings, 2017
The distortionary effect of upstream petroleum taxation has been discussed extensively by economi... more The distortionary effect of upstream petroleum taxation has been discussed extensively by economists. The literature however, has largly neglected the Production Sharing Contract (PSC) which is widely used by the internationl petroleum industry. We examine how a PSC can distort the optimal time path of production from an oil reservoir. To do that, we use optimal control theory and solve the problem with Hamiltonian function. We show that, regardless of the contract parameters, a PSC always distort the time path of production unless the oil price changes at the rate of interest rate.
Social Science Research Network, 2015
The paper studies the benefit incidence of fuel subsidies in Nigeria household sector. Combining ... more The paper studies the benefit incidence of fuel subsidies in Nigeria household sector. Combining annual subsidy estimates with the households' expenditure data from the 2009/10 Harmonized Living Standard Survey, we investigate how the benefits from fuel subsidies are accrued to each income groups in Nigeria. The results show that while the kerosene subsidy is more evenly distributed across income groups, petrol subsidy is concentrated to high income groups. In aggregate, the top 20% households enjoy twice as much the benefit of fuel subsidies as the bottom 20% households. We also examine the concentration and progressivity of fuel subsidies using Gini coefficient measures and Lorenz concentration curves and find both fuel subsidies are more regressive than the per capita expenditure.
Petroleum Science, 2020
Following three generations of buyback contracts, the new model of Iranian petroleum contracts (I... more Following three generations of buyback contracts, the new model of Iranian petroleum contracts (IPC) was introduced by the Iranian cabinet to incentivize investments in the country. This paper analyzes the fiscal terms of the contract with technical information from one of the candidate fields for licensing. The financial simulation shows that, in general, the IPC resembles more a service contract than a production sharing contract as the contractor’s take is relatively low—below 5% across different scenarios of crude oil price. Second, the IPC is progressive in that as the overall profitability of the project improves the government takes an increasing share of the economic rent. The results are confirmed in a sensitivity analysis of each party’s profitability and takes on oil price, CAPEX, OPEX and the fee.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2020
This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the ad... more This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the addition of a cover page and metadata, and formatting for readability, but it is not yet the definitive version of record. This version will undergo additional copyediting, typesetting and review before it is published in its final form, but we are providing this version to give early visibility of the article. Please note that, during the production process, errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain.
Operations Research Proceedings, 2017
The distortionary effect of upstream petroleum taxation has been discussed extensively by economi... more The distortionary effect of upstream petroleum taxation has been discussed extensively by economists. The literature however, has largly neglected the Production Sharing Contract (PSC) which is widely used by the internationl petroleum industry. We examine how a PSC can distort the optimal time path of production from an oil reservoir. To do that, we use optimal control theory and solve the problem with Hamiltonian function. We show that, regardless of the contract parameters, a PSC always distort the time path of production unless the oil price changes at the rate of interest rate.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2015
The paper studies the benefit incidence of fuel subsidies in Nigeria household sector. Combining ... more The paper studies the benefit incidence of fuel subsidies in Nigeria household sector. Combining annual subsidy estimates with the households' expenditure data from the 2009/10 Harmonized Living Standard Survey, we investigate how the benefits from fuel subsidies are accrued to each income groups in Nigeria. The results show that while the kerosene subsidy is more evenly distributed across income groups, petrol subsidy is concentrated to high income groups. In aggregate, the top 20% households enjoy twice as much the benefit of fuel subsidies as the bottom 20% households. We also examine the concentration and progressivity of fuel subsidies using Gini coefficient measures and Lorenz concentration curves and find both fuel subsidies are more regressive than the per capita expenditure.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2015
China has become the largest emitter of carbon dioxide in the world. However, the Chinese public'... more China has become the largest emitter of carbon dioxide in the world. However, the Chinese public's willingness to pay (WTP) for climate change mitigation is, at best, under-researched. This study draws upon a large national survey of Chinese public cognition and attitude towards climate change and analyzes the determinants of consumers' WTP for energy-efficient and environment-friendly products. Eighty-five percent of respondents indicate that they are willing to pay at least 10 percent more than the market price for these products. The econometric analysis indicates that income, education, age and gender, as well as public awareness and concerns about climate change are significant factors influencing WTP. Respondents who are more knowledgeable and more concerned about the adverse effect of climate change show higher WTP. In comparison, income elasticity is small. The results are robust to different model specifications and estimation techniques.
The Energy Journal, 2011
We thank Kevin Forbs, Ian Lange, Zhen Zhu, two anonymous referees, the journal editor James Smith... more We thank Kevin Forbs, Ian Lange, Zhen Zhu, two anonymous referees, the journal editor James Smith and other seminar participants at University of Stirling and University of Dundee for helpful comments, Audrey McLaughlin for helping us proofread the paper. Xiaoyi acknowledges the travel grant from the Carnegie Trust. All errors remain our own.
The Journal of Industrial Economics, 2010
This paper investigates the effect of uncertainty on the investment decisions of petroleum refi n... more This paper investigates the effect of uncertainty on the investment decisions of petroleum refi neries in the US. We construct uncertainty measures from commodity futures market and use data on actual capacity changes to measure investment episodes. Capacity changes in US refi neries occur infrequently and a small number of investment spikes account for a large fraction of the change in industry capacity. Given the lumpy nature of investment adjustment in this industry, we empirically model the investment process using hazard models. An increase in uncertainty decreases the probability a refi nery adjusts its capacity. The results are robust to various investment thresholds. Our fi ndings lend support to theories that emphasize the role of irreversibility in investment decisions. An earlier version of the paper was presented at the 25 th North American Conference of International Association for Energy Economics (IAEE) in Denver in 2005. We thank Kevin Forbes, Shu Lin, and Dan Sutter for helpful comments. We also benefi t from conversations with Dennis O'Brien, Sid Gale, and Stephen Patterson.
Economic Inquiry, 2013
ABSTRACT This article employs hazard models to investigate the role of exchange rate regimes in t... more ABSTRACT This article employs hazard models to investigate the role of exchange rate regimes in the timing of current account adjustment in developing countries. We identify high current account deficit spells and find that fixed exchange rate regimes increase the duration of high deficit spells and thus delay current account adjustment. The result is robust to a variety of model specifications and alternative classifications of exchange rate regimes. When distinguishing between hard pegs and soft pegs, we notice that the delay in the current account adjustment is primarily driven by hard pegs rather than soft pegs.
Energy economics, 2007
This paper assesses how market fundamentals affect asset return volatility by drawing on evidence... more This paper assesses how market fundamentals affect asset return volatility by drawing on evidence from the U.S. natural gas futures market. One of the novel features of this paper is the use of the deviation of temperatures from normal (weather surprise) as a proxy for demand shocks and a determinant of the conditional volatility of natural gas futures returns. I estimate a GARCH model using daily natural gas futures data from January 1997 to December 2000. The empirical result shows that the weather surprise variable has a significant effect on the conditional volatility of natural gas prices and the inclusion of the weather surprise variable in the conditional variance equation reduces volatility persistence. Combined with the evidence that volatility is considerably higher on Monday and the day when natural gas storage report is released, these results show that information about market fundamentals are important determinants of natural gas price volatility. Aside from these findings, I also document that returns of the first month futures are more volatile than those of the second month futures, which is consistent with Samuelson's (1965) hypothesis that commodity futures price volatility declines with contract horizon. Acknowledgement This paper is based on a chapter of my dissertation. I am grateful to Timothy Dunne, Aaron Smallwood and Daniel Sutter for their guidance. Also I thank Dennis O'Brien and the Institute for Energy Economics and Policy for financial support to acquire natural gas futures trading data, Peter Lamb, Mark Richmond and Reed Timmer for help on weather data. All errors remain mine.
Journal of Commodity Markets, Jun 1, 2021
This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the ad... more This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the addition of a cover page and metadata, and formatting for readability, but it is not yet the definitive version of record. This version will undergo additional copyediting, typesetting and review before it is published in its final form, but we are providing this version to give early visibility of the article. Please note that, during the production process, errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain.
The Energy Journal, Oct 1, 2011
We thank Kevin Forbs, Ian Lange, Zhen Zhu, two anonymous referees, the journal editor James Smith... more We thank Kevin Forbs, Ian Lange, Zhen Zhu, two anonymous referees, the journal editor James Smith and other seminar participants at University of Stirling and University of Dundee for helpful comments, Audrey McLaughlin for helping us proofread the paper. Xiaoyi acknowledges the travel grant from the Carnegie Trust. All errors remain our own.
Social Science Research Network, 2012
Operations research proceedings, 2017
The distortionary effect of upstream petroleum taxation has been discussed extensively by economi... more The distortionary effect of upstream petroleum taxation has been discussed extensively by economists. The literature however, has largly neglected the Production Sharing Contract (PSC) which is widely used by the internationl petroleum industry. We examine how a PSC can distort the optimal time path of production from an oil reservoir. To do that, we use optimal control theory and solve the problem with Hamiltonian function. We show that, regardless of the contract parameters, a PSC always distort the time path of production unless the oil price changes at the rate of interest rate.
Social Science Research Network, 2015
The paper studies the benefit incidence of fuel subsidies in Nigeria household sector. Combining ... more The paper studies the benefit incidence of fuel subsidies in Nigeria household sector. Combining annual subsidy estimates with the households' expenditure data from the 2009/10 Harmonized Living Standard Survey, we investigate how the benefits from fuel subsidies are accrued to each income groups in Nigeria. The results show that while the kerosene subsidy is more evenly distributed across income groups, petrol subsidy is concentrated to high income groups. In aggregate, the top 20% households enjoy twice as much the benefit of fuel subsidies as the bottom 20% households. We also examine the concentration and progressivity of fuel subsidies using Gini coefficient measures and Lorenz concentration curves and find both fuel subsidies are more regressive than the per capita expenditure.
Petroleum Science, 2020
Following three generations of buyback contracts, the new model of Iranian petroleum contracts (I... more Following three generations of buyback contracts, the new model of Iranian petroleum contracts (IPC) was introduced by the Iranian cabinet to incentivize investments in the country. This paper analyzes the fiscal terms of the contract with technical information from one of the candidate fields for licensing. The financial simulation shows that, in general, the IPC resembles more a service contract than a production sharing contract as the contractor’s take is relatively low—below 5% across different scenarios of crude oil price. Second, the IPC is progressive in that as the overall profitability of the project improves the government takes an increasing share of the economic rent. The results are confirmed in a sensitivity analysis of each party’s profitability and takes on oil price, CAPEX, OPEX and the fee.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2020
This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the ad... more This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the addition of a cover page and metadata, and formatting for readability, but it is not yet the definitive version of record. This version will undergo additional copyediting, typesetting and review before it is published in its final form, but we are providing this version to give early visibility of the article. Please note that, during the production process, errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain.
Operations Research Proceedings, 2017
The distortionary effect of upstream petroleum taxation has been discussed extensively by economi... more The distortionary effect of upstream petroleum taxation has been discussed extensively by economists. The literature however, has largly neglected the Production Sharing Contract (PSC) which is widely used by the internationl petroleum industry. We examine how a PSC can distort the optimal time path of production from an oil reservoir. To do that, we use optimal control theory and solve the problem with Hamiltonian function. We show that, regardless of the contract parameters, a PSC always distort the time path of production unless the oil price changes at the rate of interest rate.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2015
The paper studies the benefit incidence of fuel subsidies in Nigeria household sector. Combining ... more The paper studies the benefit incidence of fuel subsidies in Nigeria household sector. Combining annual subsidy estimates with the households' expenditure data from the 2009/10 Harmonized Living Standard Survey, we investigate how the benefits from fuel subsidies are accrued to each income groups in Nigeria. The results show that while the kerosene subsidy is more evenly distributed across income groups, petrol subsidy is concentrated to high income groups. In aggregate, the top 20% households enjoy twice as much the benefit of fuel subsidies as the bottom 20% households. We also examine the concentration and progressivity of fuel subsidies using Gini coefficient measures and Lorenz concentration curves and find both fuel subsidies are more regressive than the per capita expenditure.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2015
China has become the largest emitter of carbon dioxide in the world. However, the Chinese public'... more China has become the largest emitter of carbon dioxide in the world. However, the Chinese public's willingness to pay (WTP) for climate change mitigation is, at best, under-researched. This study draws upon a large national survey of Chinese public cognition and attitude towards climate change and analyzes the determinants of consumers' WTP for energy-efficient and environment-friendly products. Eighty-five percent of respondents indicate that they are willing to pay at least 10 percent more than the market price for these products. The econometric analysis indicates that income, education, age and gender, as well as public awareness and concerns about climate change are significant factors influencing WTP. Respondents who are more knowledgeable and more concerned about the adverse effect of climate change show higher WTP. In comparison, income elasticity is small. The results are robust to different model specifications and estimation techniques.
The Energy Journal, 2011
We thank Kevin Forbs, Ian Lange, Zhen Zhu, two anonymous referees, the journal editor James Smith... more We thank Kevin Forbs, Ian Lange, Zhen Zhu, two anonymous referees, the journal editor James Smith and other seminar participants at University of Stirling and University of Dundee for helpful comments, Audrey McLaughlin for helping us proofread the paper. Xiaoyi acknowledges the travel grant from the Carnegie Trust. All errors remain our own.
The Journal of Industrial Economics, 2010
This paper investigates the effect of uncertainty on the investment decisions of petroleum refi n... more This paper investigates the effect of uncertainty on the investment decisions of petroleum refi neries in the US. We construct uncertainty measures from commodity futures market and use data on actual capacity changes to measure investment episodes. Capacity changes in US refi neries occur infrequently and a small number of investment spikes account for a large fraction of the change in industry capacity. Given the lumpy nature of investment adjustment in this industry, we empirically model the investment process using hazard models. An increase in uncertainty decreases the probability a refi nery adjusts its capacity. The results are robust to various investment thresholds. Our fi ndings lend support to theories that emphasize the role of irreversibility in investment decisions. An earlier version of the paper was presented at the 25 th North American Conference of International Association for Energy Economics (IAEE) in Denver in 2005. We thank Kevin Forbes, Shu Lin, and Dan Sutter for helpful comments. We also benefi t from conversations with Dennis O'Brien, Sid Gale, and Stephen Patterson.
Economic Inquiry, 2013
ABSTRACT This article employs hazard models to investigate the role of exchange rate regimes in t... more ABSTRACT This article employs hazard models to investigate the role of exchange rate regimes in the timing of current account adjustment in developing countries. We identify high current account deficit spells and find that fixed exchange rate regimes increase the duration of high deficit spells and thus delay current account adjustment. The result is robust to a variety of model specifications and alternative classifications of exchange rate regimes. When distinguishing between hard pegs and soft pegs, we notice that the delay in the current account adjustment is primarily driven by hard pegs rather than soft pegs.
Energy economics, 2007
This paper assesses how market fundamentals affect asset return volatility by drawing on evidence... more This paper assesses how market fundamentals affect asset return volatility by drawing on evidence from the U.S. natural gas futures market. One of the novel features of this paper is the use of the deviation of temperatures from normal (weather surprise) as a proxy for demand shocks and a determinant of the conditional volatility of natural gas futures returns. I estimate a GARCH model using daily natural gas futures data from January 1997 to December 2000. The empirical result shows that the weather surprise variable has a significant effect on the conditional volatility of natural gas prices and the inclusion of the weather surprise variable in the conditional variance equation reduces volatility persistence. Combined with the evidence that volatility is considerably higher on Monday and the day when natural gas storage report is released, these results show that information about market fundamentals are important determinants of natural gas price volatility. Aside from these findings, I also document that returns of the first month futures are more volatile than those of the second month futures, which is consistent with Samuelson's (1965) hypothesis that commodity futures price volatility declines with contract horizon. Acknowledgement This paper is based on a chapter of my dissertation. I am grateful to Timothy Dunne, Aaron Smallwood and Daniel Sutter for their guidance. Also I thank Dennis O'Brien and the Institute for Energy Economics and Policy for financial support to acquire natural gas futures trading data, Peter Lamb, Mark Richmond and Reed Timmer for help on weather data. All errors remain mine.