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Papers by Zenón Quispe

Research paper thumbnail of Política macro-prudencial en los países de la región

Aplicación de políticas macro-prudenciales en los países emergentes y el contraste con lo realiza... more Aplicación de políticas macro-prudenciales en los países emergentes y el contraste con lo realizado en las economías desarrolladas.

Research paper thumbnail of Monetary Policy in a Dollarized Economy: The Case of Peru (Preliminary Version)

ABSTRACT ABSTRACT In recent years The Central Reserve Bank of Perú has made important progress in... more ABSTRACT ABSTRACT In recent years The Central Reserve Bank of Perú has made important progress in attaining its goal of price stability. Since 1994, inflation rates were kept within its announced target ranges (6,5 percent in 1997 and 6 percent in 1998), in spite of two thirds of domestic banking deposits being denominated in dollars as consequence of the hyperinflation process of 1988-1990. Despite dollarization of asset holdings, Monetary Policy has proved,to be effective since current transactions are primarily denominated,in domestic currency. First, we identify VARs of prices, output and monetary aggregates using procedures of Christiano, Eichenbaum and Evans (1996) and Sims and Zha (1995). The VAR includes real and nominal variables and focuses on the role of domestic and foreign components,of M3 in explaining the variance of inflation. Results show that: •,Shocks to domestically denominated,cash holdings explain most of the variance ofinflation •,Fiscal discipline is important because of its impact on aggregate demand. •,The Central Bank seems to react inversely to positive deviations of forecasted inflation from its target range. This finding is stronger since 1994, when the Central Bank,in co-ordination with the Finance Ministry, began to announce the target range for the inflation rate. Second, this paper also examines which indicator of monetary policy operations best explains Central Bank reaction to shocks in the money,and reserves markets. It does so by applying the structural VAR approach proposed by Bernanke and Mihov (1995). It extends this approach by introducing the exchange market interventions as an additional operating instrument of the Central Bank. The results show,that non- borrowed reserves are the optimal indicator of the Central Reserve Bank of Perú monetary policy, although we cannot reject the interest rate of the Central Bank Certificates of Deposits and the base money,(mainly composed,by household cash holdings: 75 percent). Taking these results together show,that inflation targets have become,the most important factor in the setting of monetary policy instruments in Perú. To achieve the target, The Central Reserve Bank of Perú uses a variety of different indicators of monetary policy operations which depend on monetary conditions. ,,,,,,, ,,,,,,, Preliminary version. This paper is part of the CCBS’s Project on Intermediate Targets in Developing and Transitional Economies. Any opinions expressed are those of the author and not those of the Centre for Central Banking Studies neither those of the Central Reserve Bank of Perú.

Research paper thumbnail of The global crisis and financial intermediation in emerging market economies

In terms of the implications for emerging market economies, the recent global financial crisis ha... more In terms of the implications for emerging market economies, the recent global financial crisis has had two main stages. The first stage, between the last quarter of 2007 and the collapse of Lehman Brothers, was characterised by important capital inflows and the second, post-Lehman, stage was associated with a rapid and severe deterioration of external conditions. The management of the crisis by emerging market central banks required, in both stages, a combination of conventional and unconventional monetary policy measures due to the need to preserve the monetary policy transmission mechanism. It is interesting to note that in several countries, including Peru, the sequence of monetary policy adoption began with the set of unconventional measures due to the weakening of the interest rate channel during the high uncertainty period in the last quarter of 2008.

Research paper thumbnail of Capital flows, commodity price movements and foreign exchange intervention

Research paper thumbnail of Capital Flows, Monetary Policy and FOREX Interventions in Peru

This article explains the main features of the sterilized intervention in the foreign exchange ma... more This article explains the main features of the sterilized intervention in the foreign exchange market and the use of non-conventional policy instruments as applied by the Central Reserve Bank of Peru in order to avoid credit booms or busts in a context of a partially dollarized financial system. This monetary policy framework is based on a risk management approach that includes as the main policy tool the short-term interest rate within an inflation targeting regime. This framework helped to reduce the impact of the recent global financial crisis on the Peruvian economy and allowed to rejoin the path of growth with low inflation, avoiding major disruptions from the surge of capital inflows.

Research paper thumbnail of Fiscal Policy Considerations in the Design of Monetary Policy in Peru

We evaluate the financial and real linkages between fiscal and monetary policy in Peru, and show ... more We evaluate the financial and real linkages between fiscal and monetary policy in Peru, and show that during the recent export commodity price boom, public finances supported the implementation of monetary policy. In particular, the reduction of the net public debt has translated into a greater capability by the Central Bank to sterilize its FOREX interventions. Also, an active policy to enhance the development of the local capital markets, using the issuance of public bonds denominated in local currency as a benchmark, has created the incentive to de-dollarize banking credit. On the other hand, difficulty in fine-tuning public investment around the business cycle in recent years has led to periods of a fiscal stance that does not counteract the real business cycle. This raises the question of the possibility of adopting a structural rule for the public sector balance, based on structural fundamentals. Full publication: Fiscal Policy, Public Debt and Monetary Policy in Emerging Mark...

Research paper thumbnail of Monetary policy during the global financial crisis of 2007–09: the case of Peru

In terms of the implications for emerging market economies, the recent global financial crisis ha... more In terms of the implications for emerging market economies, the recent global financial crisis has had two main stages. The first stage, between the last quarter of 2007 and the collapse of Lehman Brothers, was characterised by important capital inflows and the second, post-Lehman, stage was associated with a rapid and severe deterioration of external conditions. The management of the crisis by emerging market central banks required, in both stages, a combination of conventional and unconventional monetary policy measures due to the need to preserve the monetary policy transmission mechanism. It is interesting to note that in several countries, including Peru, the sequence of monetary policy adoption began with the set of unconventional measures due to the weakening of the interest rate channel during the high uncertainty period in the last quarter of 2008.

Research paper thumbnail of Financial globalisation and emerging market capital flows

Research paper thumbnail of Independencia del Banco Central y estabilidad de precios

Este artículo analiza uno de los elementos fundamentales de las reformas de las autoridades monet... more Este artículo analiza uno de los elementos fundamentales de las reformas de las autoridades monetarias, la independencia del banco central, concepto trascendental en el objetivo de mantener la estabilidad de precios.

Research paper thumbnail of Las reformas y el impacto de Basilea III

Revista Moneda, 2011

Presenta el último programa de reformas generadas por el Comité de Supervisores Bancarios de Basi... more Presenta el último programa de reformas generadas por el Comité de Supervisores Bancarios de Basilea orientadas a mejorar la capacidad del sistema financiero de absorber shocks en escenarios de estrés económico y financiero.

Research paper thumbnail of La crisis global 2007-2009 y la Política Monetaria del Banco Central de Reserva del Perú

Revista Moneda, 2009

En un contexto de crisis financiera global, el Perú tiene una de las inflaciones más bajas de la ... more En un contexto de crisis financiera global, el Perú tiene una de las inflaciones más bajas de la región, mantiene la normal fluidez de la cadena de pagos y del crédito; y presenta un tipo de cambio sin volatilidades extremas. Aquí se evalúan las medidas adoptadas por el ...

Research paper thumbnail of El exitoso desarrollo de las microfinanzas en el Perú

Analizan el dinamismo de las microfinanzas en el país en la última década.

Research paper thumbnail of El encaje como instrumento no convencional de Política Monetaria

Estudian el uso que el BCRP dio al encaje en su esfuerzo por recuperar los canales de transmisión... more Estudian el uso que el BCRP dio al encaje en su esfuerzo por recuperar los canales de transmisión de la tasa de interés en el contexto de la crisis financiera global.

Research paper thumbnail of De metas monetarias a metas de inflación en una economía con dolarización parcial: El caso peruano

Estudios Económicos, 2001

Como consecuencia del largo período de persistente incremento de la tasa de inflación (1975-1990)... more Como consecuencia del largo período de persistente incremento de la tasa de inflación (1975-1990), que derivó en un proceso hiperinflacionario (1988-1990), la economía peruana muestra un alto grado de dolarización de activos. Cerca del 70 por ciento del total de ...

Research paper thumbnail of Es conveniente una dolarización total en una economía parcialmente dolarizada

Banco Central de Reserva del Perú: Revista de …, 2002

En los últimos años, uno de los debates que ha cobrado más fuerza es el que se refiere a la adopc... more En los últimos años, uno de los debates que ha cobrado más fuerza es el que se refiere a la adopción de un régimen de dolarización por política -es decir, la adopción del dólar norteamericano como moneda de curso forzoso, en contraposición a la dolarización de facto-, a raíz de las propuestas presentadas en Argentina a comienzos de 1999 y en Ecuador a comienzos del 2000. En la sección 2 se revisan los principales temas tratados por la literatura económica respecto del régimen de dolarización total: La eliminación del riesgo cambiario; el abandono de la política monetaria y cambiaria; el señoreaje; la desaparición del banco central como prestamista de última instancia, el desempeño inflacionario; el efecto sobre la profundidad financiera; y en qué medida la dolarización contribuye al objetivo de aumentar la integración hacia una economía regional o global. La sección 3 contiene una discusión acerca de los aspectos involucrados en la adopción de un régimen de dolarización en una economía como la peruana. En esta sección se analiza además, en forma comparativa con el caso de Argentina, el desempeño del sistema financiero peruano en términos de disciplina de mercado mediante el análisis del balance de los bancos.

Research paper thumbnail of Política monetaria en una economía con dolarización parcial

Revista Moneda, 2008

By Paul Castillo, Carlos Montoro and Vicente Tuesta; Abstract: Los autores analizan la importanci... more By Paul Castillo, Carlos Montoro and Vicente Tuesta; Abstract: Los autores analizan la importancia de seguir reduciendo la dolarización de la economía para garantizar una mayor. ... Paul Castillo, Carlos Montoro and Vicente Tuesta. ...

Research paper thumbnail of Macroeconomic Implications of Capital Inflows in India

Research paper thumbnail of The Influence of External Factors on Monetary Policy Frameworks and Operations

Abstract: Economic and financial integration has reshaped the monetary policy frameworks and tran... more Abstract: Economic and financial integration has reshaped the monetary policy frameworks and transmission channels in the emerging market economies (EMEs) over the past two decades. Economic and financial linkages have become stronger, resulting in greater synchronization of business cycles across advanced and emerging market economies. This has led to the faster transmission of shocks, especially through financial channels.

Research paper thumbnail of Política macro-prudencial en los países de la región

Aplicación de políticas macro-prudenciales en los países emergentes y el contraste con lo realiza... more Aplicación de políticas macro-prudenciales en los países emergentes y el contraste con lo realizado en las economías desarrolladas.

Research paper thumbnail of Política macro-prudencial en los países de la región

Aplicación de políticas macro-prudenciales en los países emergentes y el contraste con lo realiza... more Aplicación de políticas macro-prudenciales en los países emergentes y el contraste con lo realizado en las economías desarrolladas.

Research paper thumbnail of Monetary Policy in a Dollarized Economy: The Case of Peru (Preliminary Version)

ABSTRACT ABSTRACT In recent years The Central Reserve Bank of Perú has made important progress in... more ABSTRACT ABSTRACT In recent years The Central Reserve Bank of Perú has made important progress in attaining its goal of price stability. Since 1994, inflation rates were kept within its announced target ranges (6,5 percent in 1997 and 6 percent in 1998), in spite of two thirds of domestic banking deposits being denominated in dollars as consequence of the hyperinflation process of 1988-1990. Despite dollarization of asset holdings, Monetary Policy has proved,to be effective since current transactions are primarily denominated,in domestic currency. First, we identify VARs of prices, output and monetary aggregates using procedures of Christiano, Eichenbaum and Evans (1996) and Sims and Zha (1995). The VAR includes real and nominal variables and focuses on the role of domestic and foreign components,of M3 in explaining the variance of inflation. Results show that: •,Shocks to domestically denominated,cash holdings explain most of the variance ofinflation •,Fiscal discipline is important because of its impact on aggregate demand. •,The Central Bank seems to react inversely to positive deviations of forecasted inflation from its target range. This finding is stronger since 1994, when the Central Bank,in co-ordination with the Finance Ministry, began to announce the target range for the inflation rate. Second, this paper also examines which indicator of monetary policy operations best explains Central Bank reaction to shocks in the money,and reserves markets. It does so by applying the structural VAR approach proposed by Bernanke and Mihov (1995). It extends this approach by introducing the exchange market interventions as an additional operating instrument of the Central Bank. The results show,that non- borrowed reserves are the optimal indicator of the Central Reserve Bank of Perú monetary policy, although we cannot reject the interest rate of the Central Bank Certificates of Deposits and the base money,(mainly composed,by household cash holdings: 75 percent). Taking these results together show,that inflation targets have become,the most important factor in the setting of monetary policy instruments in Perú. To achieve the target, The Central Reserve Bank of Perú uses a variety of different indicators of monetary policy operations which depend on monetary conditions. ,,,,,,, ,,,,,,, Preliminary version. This paper is part of the CCBS’s Project on Intermediate Targets in Developing and Transitional Economies. Any opinions expressed are those of the author and not those of the Centre for Central Banking Studies neither those of the Central Reserve Bank of Perú.

Research paper thumbnail of The global crisis and financial intermediation in emerging market economies

In terms of the implications for emerging market economies, the recent global financial crisis ha... more In terms of the implications for emerging market economies, the recent global financial crisis has had two main stages. The first stage, between the last quarter of 2007 and the collapse of Lehman Brothers, was characterised by important capital inflows and the second, post-Lehman, stage was associated with a rapid and severe deterioration of external conditions. The management of the crisis by emerging market central banks required, in both stages, a combination of conventional and unconventional monetary policy measures due to the need to preserve the monetary policy transmission mechanism. It is interesting to note that in several countries, including Peru, the sequence of monetary policy adoption began with the set of unconventional measures due to the weakening of the interest rate channel during the high uncertainty period in the last quarter of 2008.

Research paper thumbnail of Capital flows, commodity price movements and foreign exchange intervention

Research paper thumbnail of Capital Flows, Monetary Policy and FOREX Interventions in Peru

This article explains the main features of the sterilized intervention in the foreign exchange ma... more This article explains the main features of the sterilized intervention in the foreign exchange market and the use of non-conventional policy instruments as applied by the Central Reserve Bank of Peru in order to avoid credit booms or busts in a context of a partially dollarized financial system. This monetary policy framework is based on a risk management approach that includes as the main policy tool the short-term interest rate within an inflation targeting regime. This framework helped to reduce the impact of the recent global financial crisis on the Peruvian economy and allowed to rejoin the path of growth with low inflation, avoiding major disruptions from the surge of capital inflows.

Research paper thumbnail of Fiscal Policy Considerations in the Design of Monetary Policy in Peru

We evaluate the financial and real linkages between fiscal and monetary policy in Peru, and show ... more We evaluate the financial and real linkages between fiscal and monetary policy in Peru, and show that during the recent export commodity price boom, public finances supported the implementation of monetary policy. In particular, the reduction of the net public debt has translated into a greater capability by the Central Bank to sterilize its FOREX interventions. Also, an active policy to enhance the development of the local capital markets, using the issuance of public bonds denominated in local currency as a benchmark, has created the incentive to de-dollarize banking credit. On the other hand, difficulty in fine-tuning public investment around the business cycle in recent years has led to periods of a fiscal stance that does not counteract the real business cycle. This raises the question of the possibility of adopting a structural rule for the public sector balance, based on structural fundamentals. Full publication: Fiscal Policy, Public Debt and Monetary Policy in Emerging Mark...

Research paper thumbnail of Monetary policy during the global financial crisis of 2007–09: the case of Peru

In terms of the implications for emerging market economies, the recent global financial crisis ha... more In terms of the implications for emerging market economies, the recent global financial crisis has had two main stages. The first stage, between the last quarter of 2007 and the collapse of Lehman Brothers, was characterised by important capital inflows and the second, post-Lehman, stage was associated with a rapid and severe deterioration of external conditions. The management of the crisis by emerging market central banks required, in both stages, a combination of conventional and unconventional monetary policy measures due to the need to preserve the monetary policy transmission mechanism. It is interesting to note that in several countries, including Peru, the sequence of monetary policy adoption began with the set of unconventional measures due to the weakening of the interest rate channel during the high uncertainty period in the last quarter of 2008.

Research paper thumbnail of Financial globalisation and emerging market capital flows

Research paper thumbnail of Independencia del Banco Central y estabilidad de precios

Este artículo analiza uno de los elementos fundamentales de las reformas de las autoridades monet... more Este artículo analiza uno de los elementos fundamentales de las reformas de las autoridades monetarias, la independencia del banco central, concepto trascendental en el objetivo de mantener la estabilidad de precios.

Research paper thumbnail of Las reformas y el impacto de Basilea III

Revista Moneda, 2011

Presenta el último programa de reformas generadas por el Comité de Supervisores Bancarios de Basi... more Presenta el último programa de reformas generadas por el Comité de Supervisores Bancarios de Basilea orientadas a mejorar la capacidad del sistema financiero de absorber shocks en escenarios de estrés económico y financiero.

Research paper thumbnail of La crisis global 2007-2009 y la Política Monetaria del Banco Central de Reserva del Perú

Revista Moneda, 2009

En un contexto de crisis financiera global, el Perú tiene una de las inflaciones más bajas de la ... more En un contexto de crisis financiera global, el Perú tiene una de las inflaciones más bajas de la región, mantiene la normal fluidez de la cadena de pagos y del crédito; y presenta un tipo de cambio sin volatilidades extremas. Aquí se evalúan las medidas adoptadas por el ...

Research paper thumbnail of El exitoso desarrollo de las microfinanzas en el Perú

Analizan el dinamismo de las microfinanzas en el país en la última década.

Research paper thumbnail of El encaje como instrumento no convencional de Política Monetaria

Estudian el uso que el BCRP dio al encaje en su esfuerzo por recuperar los canales de transmisión... more Estudian el uso que el BCRP dio al encaje en su esfuerzo por recuperar los canales de transmisión de la tasa de interés en el contexto de la crisis financiera global.

Research paper thumbnail of De metas monetarias a metas de inflación en una economía con dolarización parcial: El caso peruano

Estudios Económicos, 2001

Como consecuencia del largo período de persistente incremento de la tasa de inflación (1975-1990)... more Como consecuencia del largo período de persistente incremento de la tasa de inflación (1975-1990), que derivó en un proceso hiperinflacionario (1988-1990), la economía peruana muestra un alto grado de dolarización de activos. Cerca del 70 por ciento del total de ...

Research paper thumbnail of Es conveniente una dolarización total en una economía parcialmente dolarizada

Banco Central de Reserva del Perú: Revista de …, 2002

En los últimos años, uno de los debates que ha cobrado más fuerza es el que se refiere a la adopc... more En los últimos años, uno de los debates que ha cobrado más fuerza es el que se refiere a la adopción de un régimen de dolarización por política -es decir, la adopción del dólar norteamericano como moneda de curso forzoso, en contraposición a la dolarización de facto-, a raíz de las propuestas presentadas en Argentina a comienzos de 1999 y en Ecuador a comienzos del 2000. En la sección 2 se revisan los principales temas tratados por la literatura económica respecto del régimen de dolarización total: La eliminación del riesgo cambiario; el abandono de la política monetaria y cambiaria; el señoreaje; la desaparición del banco central como prestamista de última instancia, el desempeño inflacionario; el efecto sobre la profundidad financiera; y en qué medida la dolarización contribuye al objetivo de aumentar la integración hacia una economía regional o global. La sección 3 contiene una discusión acerca de los aspectos involucrados en la adopción de un régimen de dolarización en una economía como la peruana. En esta sección se analiza además, en forma comparativa con el caso de Argentina, el desempeño del sistema financiero peruano en términos de disciplina de mercado mediante el análisis del balance de los bancos.

Research paper thumbnail of Política monetaria en una economía con dolarización parcial

Revista Moneda, 2008

By Paul Castillo, Carlos Montoro and Vicente Tuesta; Abstract: Los autores analizan la importanci... more By Paul Castillo, Carlos Montoro and Vicente Tuesta; Abstract: Los autores analizan la importancia de seguir reduciendo la dolarización de la economía para garantizar una mayor. ... Paul Castillo, Carlos Montoro and Vicente Tuesta. ...

Research paper thumbnail of Macroeconomic Implications of Capital Inflows in India

Research paper thumbnail of The Influence of External Factors on Monetary Policy Frameworks and Operations

Abstract: Economic and financial integration has reshaped the monetary policy frameworks and tran... more Abstract: Economic and financial integration has reshaped the monetary policy frameworks and transmission channels in the emerging market economies (EMEs) over the past two decades. Economic and financial linkages have become stronger, resulting in greater synchronization of business cycles across advanced and emerging market economies. This has led to the faster transmission of shocks, especially through financial channels.

Research paper thumbnail of Política macro-prudencial en los países de la región

Aplicación de políticas macro-prudenciales en los países emergentes y el contraste con lo realiza... more Aplicación de políticas macro-prudenciales en los países emergentes y el contraste con lo realizado en las economías desarrolladas.