Zhengyu Wu - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by Zhengyu Wu
International Affairs, 2024
This article examines the concept of the ‘middle tier of states’ proposed by Halford Mackinder in... more This article examines the concept of the ‘middle tier of states’ proposed by Halford Mackinder in 1919, its failure to prevent German–Soviet Union rapprochement in the interwar years, its recent revival and its geopolitical implications. Mackinder's ‘heartland thesis’ comprises two interrelated parts: the geopolitical significance of the heartland, and the middle tier of states, which he suggested could counteract the pernicious impact of the heartland. Although the middle tier of states paralleled the 1919 Versailles settlement in east-central Europe, its failure to play the role that Mackinder suggested has never been properly investigated. Over the past decade, the middle tier of states has been revived by a range of regional cooperation projects in east-central Europe, while the Russia–Ukraine war attests to its necessity and viability in the current context. The Russia–Ukraine war has shown that a strengthened middle tier of NATO and European Union states will not just reshape the geopolitical landscape of Europe but will have significant implications for world politics.
Journal of Strategic Studies, 2017
ABSTRACT Since the end of World War II, classical geopolitics as a particular form of realism has... more ABSTRACT Since the end of World War II, classical geopolitics as a particular form of realism has been disengaged from the development of mainstream realist theories. This disengagement has not only concealed the value of classical geopolitics as a framework of analysis for policy and strategy, but also created an increasing rift between theory and policy in contemporary realist theories. This paper seeks to reengage classical geopolitics with mainstream realist theories by clarifying its realist traits and analytical characteristics, (re)stating its core propositions and probing into its potential contribution to the development of mainstream realist theories. This paper contends that classical geopolitics, while having a distinctive pedigree, can arguably be considered an integral part of the family of realist theories in view of its basic theoretical assumptions concerning international anarchy, the unit of analysis and power politics. As a framework of analysis, classical geopolitics incorporates three interrelated strategic propositions. Those three propositions not only constitute the theoretical core of classical geopolitics, but also manifest a peculiar balance-of-power conception that is essentially distinct from those proposed by mainstream realist theories. This paper argues that those three propositions combined promise to fill in prominent lacuna in the balance-of-power research programme, and also have significant implications for contemporary world politics.
Economic and Political Studies, 2013
Abstract This paper seeks to place China’s ongoing maritime transformation in a larger context, a... more Abstract This paper seeks to place China’s ongoing maritime transformation in a larger context, and thereby clarify the strategic implications of its pursuit of maritime capabilities. It argues that, given their amphibious nature, rimland powers are bound to encounter more challenges in the pursuit of maritime transformation, and more importantly, such pursuits easily backfire and cause undesirable ramifications. This paper examines the underlying mechanism which led to the failed maritime transformation of rimland powers in modern history. Then, based on the strategic lessons from modern history, it examines the strategic challenges concomitant with China’s pursuit of maritime capabilities, and contends that, if China hopes to escape similar fate, it has to pay serious attention to three strategic issues.
Journal of Strategic Studies, 2016
ABSTRACT Many contemporary academics and policy analysts have revisited the Anglo-German rivalry ... more ABSTRACT Many contemporary academics and policy analysts have revisited the Anglo-German rivalry before 1914 to predict what may await China and the United States in the twenty-first century. However, few, if indeed any, have specified in what sense this comparison can be made. This paper attempts to fill this gap with a detailed analysis of the strategic parallels between the Anglo-German rivalry then and the China–US competition now through the lens of the Crowe Memorandum. The author argues that the basic parallel between the rise of Germany and the rise of China lies in the challenges they posed or pose to the dominant maritime power and system leader – Great Britain then and the United States today. This parallel also explains the similarity between the Triple Entente initiated by Great Britain prior to 1914 and the Rebalance to Asia launched by the United States in 2011. Furthermore, as in the case of the Anglo-German rivalry before 1914, the most crucial problem underlying the mounting China–US competition in recent years has been America’s deepening apprehension about the development of China’s anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) and naval capabilities. This development, from the US perspective, is threatening to deprive the US of its most crucial instrument to influence the strategic equilibrium on the East Asian littorals. Based on the lessons of the Anglo-German rivalry prior to 1914, the essay also examines the potential for mitigating, if not eliminating, the mounting competition and misgivings between China and the United States.
Grand Strategy and China's Sea Power: A Review Essay, 2021
This paper is an academic review of Red Star over the Pacific: China's Rise and the Challenge to ... more This paper is an academic review of Red Star over the Pacific: China's Rise and the Challenge to US Maritime Strategy (2nd Edition). It starts with a critical review of the book's analytical framework for interpreting the development of China's sea power in the previous decades. Then it scrutinizes respectively the book's discussions of the logic and grammar of China's sea power, and reveals simultaneously the contradictions embedded in China's maritime policy and practice today. The paper ends up with an evaluation of the prospects of China's sea power and its implications in view of the contradictions revealed.
The Pacific Review, 2019
On May 26th, 2015, China published its 10th Defense White Paper which integrated 'open seas prote... more On May 26th, 2015, China published its 10th Defense White Paper which integrated 'open seas protection', along with 'offshore waters defense', into its naval strategy. This shift in naval strategy, albeit largely anticipated, raises a series of important questions about China's maritime ambitions. This article seeks to analyze the causes, nature and challenges of China's latest shift in naval strategy, and its implications for Sino-US maritime relations. The article argues that China's latest shift in naval strategy is a logical corollary of the tension between China's expanding global interests and its asymmetric approach to sea power, and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) provides the necessary stimulus and justification for such a shift. China's new naval strategy, the paper contends, denotes that it will develop a Mahanian blue-water navy and a basic network of overseas bases in the years ahead. Those two developments are expected to pose a series of significant challenges for China's foreign policy. The article argues that China's new naval strategy presents both challenges and opportunities for China and the world. To accomplish 'open seas protection', China will probably have to modify its policies on a range of issues, and moderate its competitive stance in the near seas. Although China's new naval strategy need not be interpreted in a competitive framework, it does present China with a stark choice: either it pursues more friendly attitudes towards its maritime ambitions by modifying its current policy, or it will be increasingly confronted by a coalition of hostile states.
The Pacific Review, 2019
On May 26th, 2015, China published its 10th Defense White Paper which integrated 'open seas prote... more On May 26th, 2015, China published its 10th Defense White Paper which integrated 'open seas protection', along with 'offshore waters defense', into its naval strategy. This shift in naval strategy, albeit largely anticipated, raises a series of important questions about China's maritime ambitions. This paper seeks to analyze the causes, nature and challenges of China's latest shift in naval strategy, and its implications for Sino-US maritime relations. The paper argues that China's latest shift in naval strategy is a logical corollary of the tension between China's expanding global interests and its asymmetric approach to sea power, and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) provides the necessary stimulus and justification for such a shift. China's new naval strategy, the paper contends, denotes that it will develop a Mahanian blue-water navy and a basic network of overseas bases in the years ahead. Those two developments are expected to pose a series of significant challenges for China's foreign policy. The paper argues that China's new naval strategy presents both challenges and opportunities for China and the world. To accomplish 'open seas protection', China will probably have to modify its policies on a range of issues, and moderate its competitive stance in the near seas. Although China's new naval strategy need not be interpreted in a competitive framework, it does present China with a stark choice: either it pursues more friendly attitudes towards its maritime ambitions by modifying its current policy, or it will be increasingly confronted by a coalition of hostile states.
Journal of Strategic Studies, 2018
Since the end of World War II, classical geopolitics as a particular form of realism has been dis... more Since the end of World War II, classical geopolitics as a particular form of realism has been disengaged from the development of mainstream realist theories. This disengagement has not only concealed the value of classical geopolitics as a framework of analysis for policy and strategy, also created an increasing rift between theory and policy in contemporary realist theories. This paper seeks to reengage classical geopolitics with mainstream realist theories by clarifying its realist traits and analytical characteristics, (re)stating its core propositions, and probing into its potential contribution to the development of mainstream realist theories. This paper contends that classical geopolitics, while having a distinctive pedigree, can be arguably considered an integral part of the family of realist theories in view of its basic theoretical assumptions concerning international anarchy, the unit of analysis, and power politics. As a framework of analysis, classical geopolitics incorporates three interrelated strategic propositions. Those three propositions not only constitute the theoretical hardcore of classical geopolitics, also manifest a peculiar balance-of-power conception that is essentially distinct from those proposed by mainstream realist theories. This paper argues that those three propositions combined promise to fill in a prominent lacunae in the balance-of-power research program, as well as have significant implications for contemporary world politics.
Journal of Strategic Studies, 2016
Many academics and policy analysts today have revisited the Anglo-German rivalry before 1914 to p... more Many academics and policy analysts today have revisited the Anglo-German rivalry before 1914 to predict what may await China and the United States in the 21st century. However, few, if indeed any, have specified in what sense this comparison can be made. This paper purports to fill this gap with a detailed analysis of the strategic parallels between the Anglo-German rivalry then and the China-U.S. competition now through the lenses of the Crowe Memorandum. The author argues that the basic parallel between the rise of Germany and the rise of China lies with the challenges they posed to the dominant maritime power and system leader -- Great Britain then and the United States today. This parallel also explains the similarity between the Triple Entente initiated by Great Britain prior to 1914 and the Rebalance to Asia launched by the United States since 2011. Furthermore, as in the case of the Anglo-German rivalry before 1914, the most crucial problem underlying the mounting China-U.S. competition in recent years is America's deepening apprehension of the development of China’s A2/AD and naval capabilities. This development, from the U. S. perspective, is threatening to deprive it of the most crucial instrument to influence the strategic equilibrium in the East Asian littorals. Based on the lessons of the Anglo-German rivalry prior to 1914, the essay also examines the potential for mitigating, if not eliminating, the mounting competition and misgivings between China and the United States.
International Affairs, 2024
This article examines the concept of the ‘middle tier of states’ proposed by Halford Mackinder in... more This article examines the concept of the ‘middle tier of states’ proposed by Halford Mackinder in 1919, its failure to prevent German–Soviet Union rapprochement in the interwar years, its recent revival and its geopolitical implications. Mackinder's ‘heartland thesis’ comprises two interrelated parts: the geopolitical significance of the heartland, and the middle tier of states, which he suggested could counteract the pernicious impact of the heartland. Although the middle tier of states paralleled the 1919 Versailles settlement in east-central Europe, its failure to play the role that Mackinder suggested has never been properly investigated. Over the past decade, the middle tier of states has been revived by a range of regional cooperation projects in east-central Europe, while the Russia–Ukraine war attests to its necessity and viability in the current context. The Russia–Ukraine war has shown that a strengthened middle tier of NATO and European Union states will not just reshape the geopolitical landscape of Europe but will have significant implications for world politics.
Journal of Strategic Studies, 2017
ABSTRACT Since the end of World War II, classical geopolitics as a particular form of realism has... more ABSTRACT Since the end of World War II, classical geopolitics as a particular form of realism has been disengaged from the development of mainstream realist theories. This disengagement has not only concealed the value of classical geopolitics as a framework of analysis for policy and strategy, but also created an increasing rift between theory and policy in contemporary realist theories. This paper seeks to reengage classical geopolitics with mainstream realist theories by clarifying its realist traits and analytical characteristics, (re)stating its core propositions and probing into its potential contribution to the development of mainstream realist theories. This paper contends that classical geopolitics, while having a distinctive pedigree, can arguably be considered an integral part of the family of realist theories in view of its basic theoretical assumptions concerning international anarchy, the unit of analysis and power politics. As a framework of analysis, classical geopolitics incorporates three interrelated strategic propositions. Those three propositions not only constitute the theoretical core of classical geopolitics, but also manifest a peculiar balance-of-power conception that is essentially distinct from those proposed by mainstream realist theories. This paper argues that those three propositions combined promise to fill in prominent lacuna in the balance-of-power research programme, and also have significant implications for contemporary world politics.
Economic and Political Studies, 2013
Abstract This paper seeks to place China’s ongoing maritime transformation in a larger context, a... more Abstract This paper seeks to place China’s ongoing maritime transformation in a larger context, and thereby clarify the strategic implications of its pursuit of maritime capabilities. It argues that, given their amphibious nature, rimland powers are bound to encounter more challenges in the pursuit of maritime transformation, and more importantly, such pursuits easily backfire and cause undesirable ramifications. This paper examines the underlying mechanism which led to the failed maritime transformation of rimland powers in modern history. Then, based on the strategic lessons from modern history, it examines the strategic challenges concomitant with China’s pursuit of maritime capabilities, and contends that, if China hopes to escape similar fate, it has to pay serious attention to three strategic issues.
Journal of Strategic Studies, 2016
ABSTRACT Many contemporary academics and policy analysts have revisited the Anglo-German rivalry ... more ABSTRACT Many contemporary academics and policy analysts have revisited the Anglo-German rivalry before 1914 to predict what may await China and the United States in the twenty-first century. However, few, if indeed any, have specified in what sense this comparison can be made. This paper attempts to fill this gap with a detailed analysis of the strategic parallels between the Anglo-German rivalry then and the China–US competition now through the lens of the Crowe Memorandum. The author argues that the basic parallel between the rise of Germany and the rise of China lies in the challenges they posed or pose to the dominant maritime power and system leader – Great Britain then and the United States today. This parallel also explains the similarity between the Triple Entente initiated by Great Britain prior to 1914 and the Rebalance to Asia launched by the United States in 2011. Furthermore, as in the case of the Anglo-German rivalry before 1914, the most crucial problem underlying the mounting China–US competition in recent years has been America’s deepening apprehension about the development of China’s anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) and naval capabilities. This development, from the US perspective, is threatening to deprive the US of its most crucial instrument to influence the strategic equilibrium on the East Asian littorals. Based on the lessons of the Anglo-German rivalry prior to 1914, the essay also examines the potential for mitigating, if not eliminating, the mounting competition and misgivings between China and the United States.
Grand Strategy and China's Sea Power: A Review Essay, 2021
This paper is an academic review of Red Star over the Pacific: China's Rise and the Challenge to ... more This paper is an academic review of Red Star over the Pacific: China's Rise and the Challenge to US Maritime Strategy (2nd Edition). It starts with a critical review of the book's analytical framework for interpreting the development of China's sea power in the previous decades. Then it scrutinizes respectively the book's discussions of the logic and grammar of China's sea power, and reveals simultaneously the contradictions embedded in China's maritime policy and practice today. The paper ends up with an evaluation of the prospects of China's sea power and its implications in view of the contradictions revealed.
The Pacific Review, 2019
On May 26th, 2015, China published its 10th Defense White Paper which integrated 'open seas prote... more On May 26th, 2015, China published its 10th Defense White Paper which integrated 'open seas protection', along with 'offshore waters defense', into its naval strategy. This shift in naval strategy, albeit largely anticipated, raises a series of important questions about China's maritime ambitions. This article seeks to analyze the causes, nature and challenges of China's latest shift in naval strategy, and its implications for Sino-US maritime relations. The article argues that China's latest shift in naval strategy is a logical corollary of the tension between China's expanding global interests and its asymmetric approach to sea power, and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) provides the necessary stimulus and justification for such a shift. China's new naval strategy, the paper contends, denotes that it will develop a Mahanian blue-water navy and a basic network of overseas bases in the years ahead. Those two developments are expected to pose a series of significant challenges for China's foreign policy. The article argues that China's new naval strategy presents both challenges and opportunities for China and the world. To accomplish 'open seas protection', China will probably have to modify its policies on a range of issues, and moderate its competitive stance in the near seas. Although China's new naval strategy need not be interpreted in a competitive framework, it does present China with a stark choice: either it pursues more friendly attitudes towards its maritime ambitions by modifying its current policy, or it will be increasingly confronted by a coalition of hostile states.
The Pacific Review, 2019
On May 26th, 2015, China published its 10th Defense White Paper which integrated 'open seas prote... more On May 26th, 2015, China published its 10th Defense White Paper which integrated 'open seas protection', along with 'offshore waters defense', into its naval strategy. This shift in naval strategy, albeit largely anticipated, raises a series of important questions about China's maritime ambitions. This paper seeks to analyze the causes, nature and challenges of China's latest shift in naval strategy, and its implications for Sino-US maritime relations. The paper argues that China's latest shift in naval strategy is a logical corollary of the tension between China's expanding global interests and its asymmetric approach to sea power, and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) provides the necessary stimulus and justification for such a shift. China's new naval strategy, the paper contends, denotes that it will develop a Mahanian blue-water navy and a basic network of overseas bases in the years ahead. Those two developments are expected to pose a series of significant challenges for China's foreign policy. The paper argues that China's new naval strategy presents both challenges and opportunities for China and the world. To accomplish 'open seas protection', China will probably have to modify its policies on a range of issues, and moderate its competitive stance in the near seas. Although China's new naval strategy need not be interpreted in a competitive framework, it does present China with a stark choice: either it pursues more friendly attitudes towards its maritime ambitions by modifying its current policy, or it will be increasingly confronted by a coalition of hostile states.
Journal of Strategic Studies, 2018
Since the end of World War II, classical geopolitics as a particular form of realism has been dis... more Since the end of World War II, classical geopolitics as a particular form of realism has been disengaged from the development of mainstream realist theories. This disengagement has not only concealed the value of classical geopolitics as a framework of analysis for policy and strategy, also created an increasing rift between theory and policy in contemporary realist theories. This paper seeks to reengage classical geopolitics with mainstream realist theories by clarifying its realist traits and analytical characteristics, (re)stating its core propositions, and probing into its potential contribution to the development of mainstream realist theories. This paper contends that classical geopolitics, while having a distinctive pedigree, can be arguably considered an integral part of the family of realist theories in view of its basic theoretical assumptions concerning international anarchy, the unit of analysis, and power politics. As a framework of analysis, classical geopolitics incorporates three interrelated strategic propositions. Those three propositions not only constitute the theoretical hardcore of classical geopolitics, also manifest a peculiar balance-of-power conception that is essentially distinct from those proposed by mainstream realist theories. This paper argues that those three propositions combined promise to fill in a prominent lacunae in the balance-of-power research program, as well as have significant implications for contemporary world politics.
Journal of Strategic Studies, 2016
Many academics and policy analysts today have revisited the Anglo-German rivalry before 1914 to p... more Many academics and policy analysts today have revisited the Anglo-German rivalry before 1914 to predict what may await China and the United States in the 21st century. However, few, if indeed any, have specified in what sense this comparison can be made. This paper purports to fill this gap with a detailed analysis of the strategic parallels between the Anglo-German rivalry then and the China-U.S. competition now through the lenses of the Crowe Memorandum. The author argues that the basic parallel between the rise of Germany and the rise of China lies with the challenges they posed to the dominant maritime power and system leader -- Great Britain then and the United States today. This parallel also explains the similarity between the Triple Entente initiated by Great Britain prior to 1914 and the Rebalance to Asia launched by the United States since 2011. Furthermore, as in the case of the Anglo-German rivalry before 1914, the most crucial problem underlying the mounting China-U.S. competition in recent years is America's deepening apprehension of the development of China’s A2/AD and naval capabilities. This development, from the U. S. perspective, is threatening to deprive it of the most crucial instrument to influence the strategic equilibrium in the East Asian littorals. Based on the lessons of the Anglo-German rivalry prior to 1914, the essay also examines the potential for mitigating, if not eliminating, the mounting competition and misgivings between China and the United States.