alenka kajzer - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by alenka kajzer
© IMAD, 2007. The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided tha... more © IMAD, 2007. The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged. ... Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development Janez uterič, Director DTP: Katarina Cimprič, Saa Brečko Graphs: Marjeta igman ...
Urad Republike Slovenije za makroekonomske analize in razvoj, 2005
The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source i... more The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged According to IMAD analyses, the structural imbalances in Slovenia have been accumulating for several years, which have in turn impeded economic recovery and, in particular, the achievement of lasting, stable economic growth and long-term fiscal sustainability. We have used the Development Report 1 and Economic Issues, 2 our annual publications, as the basis for identifying the main challenges to Slovenia's economic policy. In these reports a wide range of indicators are used to analyse the main factors affecting Slovenia's long-term development. They reveal that the key structural imbalances in Slovenia include low productivity, low activity on the part of some population groups, inadequate adjustment to demographic changes, a persistently high structural public deficit and high general government debt. The difficulties in these areas, which are closely interlinked, are considered to be the key reason for the weakness in the current economic recovery. Owing to their structural nature, they also dampen potential for long-term growth and undermine the long-term sustainability of the public finances. In view of the gradual economic recovery, we estimate that the time is now ripe for Slovenia to implement a set of comprehensive structural reforms. In times of deep recession, structural measures were more difficult to introduce because the unstable economic and political situation meant that economic policy makers had to focus on short-term counter-cyclical measures. The factors that are now assisting Slovenia regarding the implementation of structural reforms include: (i) the recovery of economic activity, which is at least partly based on domestic demand; (ii) the elimination of uncertainties related to the stabilisation of the banking system; (iii) favourable pricing terms of funding; and (iv) political stability. In such an environment, economic policy has some leeway regarding the design and implementation of measures, which are usually easier to carry out in the first half of the political cycle. This analysis presents simulations of selected measures that address the key challenges ahead for Slovenia. They have been selected on the basis of various criteria, the most important of which include their ability to improve the situation in targeted areas, the empirically supported effectiveness of measures in other countries, and their acceptability in relation to other imbalances in the economy or their impact on its well-being as a whole. The choice of simulated measures was also conditional on the limitations inherent to the models used. In contrast to the measures that have been used the most in recent years, the simulated measures are primarily intended to remedy multiple problems at the same time rather than address only one area. In order to enhance the effectiveness of the set of measures, it will be necessary to define and list them by priority, as too broad a set can reduce the focus on those which are the most important. The credibility and speed of implementation also have a positive impact on the effectiveness of the reform programme, particularly in the short and medium term. 3 Empirical estimates suggest that, despite some negative short-term effects, these structural measures would have a significant and permanent positive impact on long-term economic potential and fiscal sustainability in Slovenia. As expected, positive macroeconomic and fiscal effects dominate in the long term. However, it is also necessary to point to certain, albeit small, negative long-term consequences of the simulated measures: for example, according to the model-based assessments conducted, some of the measures on the product market reduce employment. The model-based simulations also indicate that there are considerable short-term positive effects for measures aimed at reducing administrative barriers as well as those which match supply and demand on the labour market and reduce costs for businesses. Some other measures on the product market could also lower costs and prices, but this would further exacerbate current deflationary pressures. Moreover, some measures could decelerate the urgently needed fiscal consolidation process, at least in the short term. However, it should be noted that, in the long term, structural measures tend to have a positive impact on public finances through endogenously stimulated economic growth. These measures must be defined and implemented by taking full advantage of the flexibility offered within the existing rules of the Stability and Growth Pact 4 regarding temporary deviations from the medium-term budgetary objective. This holds particularly true for the years to come, when the general government deficit in Slovenia is forecast to fall significantly below 3% of GDP. Since there are several factors which can increase the uncertainty of the estimates, the results of the simulations should be interpreted with caution. The results of model-based simulations or estimates relying on parameters taken from other studies may be biased due to changes in the economy's structure,
Eastern European Economics, 1995
© IMAD, 2007. The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided tha... more © IMAD, 2007. The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged. ... Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development Janez uterič, Director DTP: Katarina Cimprič, Saa Brečko Graphs: Marjeta igman ...
umar.gov.si
... http://www.gov.si/umar/public/dz.html Urednica zbirke: Eva ZVER ... Uredila: mag. Marijana Be... more ... http://www.gov.si/umar/public/dz.html Urednica zbirke: Eva ZVER ... Uredila: mag. Marijana Bednaš Avtorji prispevkov: Barbara Ferk, Marjan Hafner, Slavica Jurančič, Jasna Kondža, Mojca Koprivnikar Šušteršič, Mateja Kovač, mag. Gorazd Kovačič, Tomaž Kraigher, mag. ...
Post-Communist Economies, 2007
© IMAD, 2007. The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided tha... more © IMAD, 2007. The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged. ... Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development Janez uterič, Director DTP: Katarina Cimprič, Saa Brečko Graphs: Marjeta igman ...
Urad Republike Slovenije za makroekonomske analize in razvoj, 2005
The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source i... more The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged According to IMAD analyses, the structural imbalances in Slovenia have been accumulating for several years, which have in turn impeded economic recovery and, in particular, the achievement of lasting, stable economic growth and long-term fiscal sustainability. We have used the Development Report 1 and Economic Issues, 2 our annual publications, as the basis for identifying the main challenges to Slovenia's economic policy. In these reports a wide range of indicators are used to analyse the main factors affecting Slovenia's long-term development. They reveal that the key structural imbalances in Slovenia include low productivity, low activity on the part of some population groups, inadequate adjustment to demographic changes, a persistently high structural public deficit and high general government debt. The difficulties in these areas, which are closely interlinked, are considered to be the key reason for the weakness in the current economic recovery. Owing to their structural nature, they also dampen potential for long-term growth and undermine the long-term sustainability of the public finances. In view of the gradual economic recovery, we estimate that the time is now ripe for Slovenia to implement a set of comprehensive structural reforms. In times of deep recession, structural measures were more difficult to introduce because the unstable economic and political situation meant that economic policy makers had to focus on short-term counter-cyclical measures. The factors that are now assisting Slovenia regarding the implementation of structural reforms include: (i) the recovery of economic activity, which is at least partly based on domestic demand; (ii) the elimination of uncertainties related to the stabilisation of the banking system; (iii) favourable pricing terms of funding; and (iv) political stability. In such an environment, economic policy has some leeway regarding the design and implementation of measures, which are usually easier to carry out in the first half of the political cycle. This analysis presents simulations of selected measures that address the key challenges ahead for Slovenia. They have been selected on the basis of various criteria, the most important of which include their ability to improve the situation in targeted areas, the empirically supported effectiveness of measures in other countries, and their acceptability in relation to other imbalances in the economy or their impact on its well-being as a whole. The choice of simulated measures was also conditional on the limitations inherent to the models used. In contrast to the measures that have been used the most in recent years, the simulated measures are primarily intended to remedy multiple problems at the same time rather than address only one area. In order to enhance the effectiveness of the set of measures, it will be necessary to define and list them by priority, as too broad a set can reduce the focus on those which are the most important. The credibility and speed of implementation also have a positive impact on the effectiveness of the reform programme, particularly in the short and medium term. 3 Empirical estimates suggest that, despite some negative short-term effects, these structural measures would have a significant and permanent positive impact on long-term economic potential and fiscal sustainability in Slovenia. As expected, positive macroeconomic and fiscal effects dominate in the long term. However, it is also necessary to point to certain, albeit small, negative long-term consequences of the simulated measures: for example, according to the model-based assessments conducted, some of the measures on the product market reduce employment. The model-based simulations also indicate that there are considerable short-term positive effects for measures aimed at reducing administrative barriers as well as those which match supply and demand on the labour market and reduce costs for businesses. Some other measures on the product market could also lower costs and prices, but this would further exacerbate current deflationary pressures. Moreover, some measures could decelerate the urgently needed fiscal consolidation process, at least in the short term. However, it should be noted that, in the long term, structural measures tend to have a positive impact on public finances through endogenously stimulated economic growth. These measures must be defined and implemented by taking full advantage of the flexibility offered within the existing rules of the Stability and Growth Pact 4 regarding temporary deviations from the medium-term budgetary objective. This holds particularly true for the years to come, when the general government deficit in Slovenia is forecast to fall significantly below 3% of GDP. Since there are several factors which can increase the uncertainty of the estimates, the results of the simulations should be interpreted with caution. The results of model-based simulations or estimates relying on parameters taken from other studies may be biased due to changes in the economy's structure,
Eastern European Economics, 1995
© IMAD, 2007. The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided tha... more © IMAD, 2007. The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged. ... Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development Janez uterič, Director DTP: Katarina Cimprič, Saa Brečko Graphs: Marjeta igman ...
umar.gov.si
... http://www.gov.si/umar/public/dz.html Urednica zbirke: Eva ZVER ... Uredila: mag. Marijana Be... more ... http://www.gov.si/umar/public/dz.html Urednica zbirke: Eva ZVER ... Uredila: mag. Marijana Bednaš Avtorji prispevkov: Barbara Ferk, Marjan Hafner, Slavica Jurančič, Jasna Kondža, Mojca Koprivnikar Šušteršič, Mateja Kovač, mag. Gorazd Kovačič, Tomaž Kraigher, mag. ...
Post-Communist Economies, 2007