bijaya devkota - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by bijaya devkota
Deleted Journal, Mar 22, 2024
The text discusses the importance of indirect estimation techniques in understanding population d... more The text discusses the importance of indirect estimation techniques in understanding population dynamics, particularly in countries with limited or flawed data like Nepal. Indirect methods offer valuable insights into fertility and mortality rates when direct measures are unavailable or unreliable. Techniques like Brass P/F ratio and the logistic curve function are explored for estimating fertility trends and projecting Total Fertility Rates (TFR). These methods involve meticulous analysis and adjustment for data inconsistencies. Indirect estimation plays a crucial role in bridging data gaps and informing demographic analysis and planning, especially in regions undergoing demographic transition. Through these techniques, researchers gain valuable insights into fertility dynamics, contributing to a better understanding of population trends. The text explores fertility estimation in Nepal using Arriaga's method, analyzing data from the 2011 and 2021 censuses. It reveals disparities in lifetime fertility indices, particularly after age 20, with higher rates among women aged 20-24 and 25-34, tapering towards the end of the reproductive span. Arriaga's adjustments address issues like misreporting of children's ages, aiming to rectify discrepancies and estimate the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) for both years. Additionally, the study discusses fertility projections for 2026 and 2031, highlighting the importance of trend extrapolation models and the logistic curve for accurate estimation. The findings underscore the significance of meticulous adjustments and reliable methodologies in understanding fertility dynamics in Nepal.
Deleted Journal, Dec 31, 2019
Voice of Teacher
Information on fertility levels and patterns can assist to formulate and evaluate policies relate... more Information on fertility levels and patterns can assist to formulate and evaluate policies related to population change (Brass, 2015). Policy infertility can affect the population change. Fertility relies upon accepted practices and desired family size (Bongaart, 2017). Fertility provides positive contribution to population growth if it is above the replacement level. The negative contribution occurs if it is below replacement level (Pressat,1973). So, actual scenario of fertility data is essential for policy formulation. Fertility decline in Nepal has been tested and tried with different studies gives different figures like demographic health survey and national census data but varies data in provincial level. This study describes number of children ever born and number of births before 12 months who were given birth by reproductive (15-49) age group of women. The study has utilized census data from CBS that were conducted in 2001 and 2011. From census data files 1156521 and 158306...
Curriculum Development Journal, 2021
Fertility is an essential tool of population growth which levels and patterns can assist to formu... more Fertility is an essential tool of population growth which levels and patterns can assist to formulate and evaluate policies related to population change. Fertility decline in Nepal has been tested and tried with different studies gives different figures like demographic health survey and national census data but varies data in provincial level. This study describes number of children ever born and number of birth before 12 months who were given birth by reproductive (15-49) age group of women. The study has utilized census data from CBS that were conducted in 2001 and 2011. These national household censuses were carried out in 12.5 percent of total household. From census data files 1,063,903 and 1,304,079 number of reproductive age group of women were identified through analysis. The study was carried out adhering to the Arriaga method and changing P/F ratio method. Age sex pyramids and frequency table represent demographic scenario of provincial 2. The TFR values of province 2 exac...
Nepal Population Journal, Dec 31, 2018
Fertility plays an important role in any demographic transition and total fertility rate (TFR) is... more Fertility plays an important role in any demographic transition and total fertility rate (TFR) is one of the basic measurements of fertility. Absences of complete and reliable data, a large number of indirect techniques have been developed to estimate the demographic parameters with incomplete data. Some of these techniques are based on utilizing the data from stable population theory while others are based on the regression technique in which the parameters are estimated through regression equations between the dependent variable which is the TFR and the independent variables which is the socio economic well as demographic variables. The first method is based on the relationship between the Total fertility rate (TFR) and contraceptive prevalence rate for all women. By using this modified estimate of TFR, demographic analysis can easily calculate the birth averted for different regions as well as states also. In fact, provide reasonable estimates of births averted due to contraceptive use by national populations. The variables are CPR that about 51.2 percent variation in TFR can be explained by the first regression approach. The second is based on the relationship between total fertility rate (TFR) and Additive combination of CPR and proportion of currently married females having open birth interval. Using new predictor variable, the improved model explained about 55percent of the variation in TFR. The findings reveal that the values of TFR calculated by the present method are quite close to the observed values of the TFR without involving much computational complexities at different background characteristics. Estimates of births averted and the percent change in births in the absence of contraception, based on the two methods, are fairly consistent.
Journal of Business and Social Sciences Research
Fertility has an important role for demographic transition and total fertility rate (TFR) which... more Fertility has an important role for demographic transition and total fertility rate (TFR) which is one component measurements of fertility. Absences of complete and reliable data, a large number of indirect techniques have been developed to estimate demographic parameters. Some of these techniques are based on stable population theory and others are regression equations between the dependent variables, the TFR and the independent variables, the socio economic as well as demographic variables. The unwanted or unintended pregnancies can be avoided through the use of contraceptives; it becomes very important to estimate the births averted or pregnancies stopped by use of contraception. Though there is increase in the use of contraception, still many couples do not use contraception in spite of the fact that they require to use contraception. To satisfy this unmet need of contraception is one of the policy targets of national population policy for population stabilization. In this stu...
Deleted Journal, Mar 22, 2024
The text discusses the importance of indirect estimation techniques in understanding population d... more The text discusses the importance of indirect estimation techniques in understanding population dynamics, particularly in countries with limited or flawed data like Nepal. Indirect methods offer valuable insights into fertility and mortality rates when direct measures are unavailable or unreliable. Techniques like Brass P/F ratio and the logistic curve function are explored for estimating fertility trends and projecting Total Fertility Rates (TFR). These methods involve meticulous analysis and adjustment for data inconsistencies. Indirect estimation plays a crucial role in bridging data gaps and informing demographic analysis and planning, especially in regions undergoing demographic transition. Through these techniques, researchers gain valuable insights into fertility dynamics, contributing to a better understanding of population trends. The text explores fertility estimation in Nepal using Arriaga's method, analyzing data from the 2011 and 2021 censuses. It reveals disparities in lifetime fertility indices, particularly after age 20, with higher rates among women aged 20-24 and 25-34, tapering towards the end of the reproductive span. Arriaga's adjustments address issues like misreporting of children's ages, aiming to rectify discrepancies and estimate the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) for both years. Additionally, the study discusses fertility projections for 2026 and 2031, highlighting the importance of trend extrapolation models and the logistic curve for accurate estimation. The findings underscore the significance of meticulous adjustments and reliable methodologies in understanding fertility dynamics in Nepal.
Deleted Journal, Dec 31, 2019
Voice of Teacher
Information on fertility levels and patterns can assist to formulate and evaluate policies relate... more Information on fertility levels and patterns can assist to formulate and evaluate policies related to population change (Brass, 2015). Policy infertility can affect the population change. Fertility relies upon accepted practices and desired family size (Bongaart, 2017). Fertility provides positive contribution to population growth if it is above the replacement level. The negative contribution occurs if it is below replacement level (Pressat,1973). So, actual scenario of fertility data is essential for policy formulation. Fertility decline in Nepal has been tested and tried with different studies gives different figures like demographic health survey and national census data but varies data in provincial level. This study describes number of children ever born and number of births before 12 months who were given birth by reproductive (15-49) age group of women. The study has utilized census data from CBS that were conducted in 2001 and 2011. From census data files 1156521 and 158306...
Curriculum Development Journal, 2021
Fertility is an essential tool of population growth which levels and patterns can assist to formu... more Fertility is an essential tool of population growth which levels and patterns can assist to formulate and evaluate policies related to population change. Fertility decline in Nepal has been tested and tried with different studies gives different figures like demographic health survey and national census data but varies data in provincial level. This study describes number of children ever born and number of birth before 12 months who were given birth by reproductive (15-49) age group of women. The study has utilized census data from CBS that were conducted in 2001 and 2011. These national household censuses were carried out in 12.5 percent of total household. From census data files 1,063,903 and 1,304,079 number of reproductive age group of women were identified through analysis. The study was carried out adhering to the Arriaga method and changing P/F ratio method. Age sex pyramids and frequency table represent demographic scenario of provincial 2. The TFR values of province 2 exac...
Nepal Population Journal, Dec 31, 2018
Fertility plays an important role in any demographic transition and total fertility rate (TFR) is... more Fertility plays an important role in any demographic transition and total fertility rate (TFR) is one of the basic measurements of fertility. Absences of complete and reliable data, a large number of indirect techniques have been developed to estimate the demographic parameters with incomplete data. Some of these techniques are based on utilizing the data from stable population theory while others are based on the regression technique in which the parameters are estimated through regression equations between the dependent variable which is the TFR and the independent variables which is the socio economic well as demographic variables. The first method is based on the relationship between the Total fertility rate (TFR) and contraceptive prevalence rate for all women. By using this modified estimate of TFR, demographic analysis can easily calculate the birth averted for different regions as well as states also. In fact, provide reasonable estimates of births averted due to contraceptive use by national populations. The variables are CPR that about 51.2 percent variation in TFR can be explained by the first regression approach. The second is based on the relationship between total fertility rate (TFR) and Additive combination of CPR and proportion of currently married females having open birth interval. Using new predictor variable, the improved model explained about 55percent of the variation in TFR. The findings reveal that the values of TFR calculated by the present method are quite close to the observed values of the TFR without involving much computational complexities at different background characteristics. Estimates of births averted and the percent change in births in the absence of contraception, based on the two methods, are fairly consistent.
Journal of Business and Social Sciences Research
Fertility has an important role for demographic transition and total fertility rate (TFR) which... more Fertility has an important role for demographic transition and total fertility rate (TFR) which is one component measurements of fertility. Absences of complete and reliable data, a large number of indirect techniques have been developed to estimate demographic parameters. Some of these techniques are based on stable population theory and others are regression equations between the dependent variables, the TFR and the independent variables, the socio economic as well as demographic variables. The unwanted or unintended pregnancies can be avoided through the use of contraceptives; it becomes very important to estimate the births averted or pregnancies stopped by use of contraception. Though there is increase in the use of contraception, still many couples do not use contraception in spite of the fact that they require to use contraception. To satisfy this unmet need of contraception is one of the policy targets of national population policy for population stabilization. In this stu...