michele bruni - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by michele bruni
ILO Regional Office for Arab States, 2014
Yemen’s development depends on the government’s ability to generate employment, promote education... more Yemen’s development depends on the government’s ability to generate employment, promote education and skills development, and provide decent employment conditions for its young generation and women. This, in turn, requires a strong commitment to social and economic reform, and the transformation of state institutions. The increase in labour market entrants means that the number of additional jobs the Yemeni economy would have to create on a yearly average to maintain an employment-to-population ratio of 75 per cent equates to 150,000 jobs a year. In this situation, Yemen’s economy is evidently struggling to absorb the increasing number of new entrants into the labour market.
The paper covers the findings of Employer Skills Needs Survey in 2012. This survey is the first o... more The paper covers the findings of Employer Skills Needs Survey in 2012. This survey is the first of its kind and coverage in Cambodia that aimed at understanding the needs of employers in finding and hiring workers. It reports on the existence of skills, as well as skilled and unskilled labour shortages in the six recently growing sectors in Cambodia including accommodation, construction, finance and insurance, food and beverages, garments, apparel and footwear, and rubber and plastics.
Since 1967 / Science to cultivate change www.ciat.cgiar.org According to climate model prediction... more Since 1967 / Science to cultivate change www.ciat.cgiar.org According to climate model predictions, most parts of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) will see significant temperature increases and changes in precipitation by 2050. In Guatemala, Colombia, and Jamaica, for example, such shifts will pose serious challenges for food supply chains in the face of increasing demand. If crop production is allowed to fall behind, this will not only lower national income and private sector growth but also jeopardize the food security and livelihoods of thousands of smallholder farmers. Policy makers must begin now to minimize the socioeconomic impacts of climate change through a coordinated effort to identify pro-active options for adaptation, which take into account the different impacts and degrees of vulnerability across locations, crops, supply chains, and cultures.
Many of the jobs created in the past ten years were not attractive to nationals, being predominan... more Many of the jobs created in the past ten years were not attractive to nationals, being predominantly low skilled, poorly paid and protected. The creation of jobs that are filled in by foreigners will continue for the foreseeable future. The case of Maldives appears therefore similar, from an economic point of view, to that of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. The review of the quota system will have to be done hand in hand with the Jobs Strategy, focusing on medium- and high-skilled jobs that are attractive to nationals. The low presence of Maldivians in higher-end occupations can be explained by several factors. First, as well documented in the existing literature, the weaknesses of the education and labour market training system play a critical role. The creation of jobs in high standard tourism activities since the 1990s required certain skills that were not available among nationals. TVET system did not effectively adapt and employers found it more convenient to recr...
The authors attempt to redefine the concepts "pressure to migrate" and "propensity... more The authors attempt to redefine the concepts "pressure to migrate" and "propensity to migrate" by developing a flow model of the labor market and applying it to migration in the Mediterranean region. The implications of the analysis for migration policies in both sending and receiving countries are discussed. (ANNOTATION)
The paper provides a stock-flow analysis of San Marino labor market in the framework of the demog... more The paper provides a stock-flow analysis of San Marino labor market in the framework of the demographic evolution of the country. The research covers the period 2003-2013 during which WAP was declining under the impact of the Demographic transition, while the economy of the country was first affected by a notable economic expansion and then by a deep crisis. After presenting jointly build labor market and demographic scenarios, the paper outlines some demographic and development policies that could be of interest in the incoming dialogue with EU.
A short summary of human population history, a critical analysis of available empirical evidence ... more A short summary of human population history, a critical analysis of available empirical evidence and an interpretation of data free of reverence toward the dominant theories bring to the conclusion that up to now the human population has experienced only two demographic regimes. The first was characterized by high rates of mortality and fertility. Its main characteristic was that man did not have the capability to control fertility and intervene on mortality so that periods of high demographic growth were followed by periods of pronounced demographic decline. In spite of this, at the end, the demographic history of men has been a success story. It is then argued that around 1850 an unprecedented demographic revolution was ignited by extraordinary advancements in medicine, chemistry and biology, as well as the development of new laboratory tools and techniques that opened the way to the introduction of powerful vaccines. This allowed defeating the most dangerous infectious diseases a...
L’apologo del Cinema Italia (che raccontai per la prima volta circa 35 anni or sono e ho poi rego... more L’apologo del Cinema Italia (che raccontai per la prima volta circa 35 anni or sono e ho poi regolarmente utilizzato per spiegare ai miei studenti le dinamiche del mercato del lavoro) viene qui rivisitato per spiegare le cause dei flussi migratori internazionali, mostrare che il fenomeno e ineludibile, capire perche i flussi stiano progressivamente aumentando e continueranno a farlo nel corso del secolo. Dopo averci fatto capire che i flussi migratori sono spiegati dalla carenza strutturale di offerta di lavoro che caratterizza i paesi ricchi, in presenza di una offerta illimitata nei paesi piu poveri, l’apologo mostra qual e l’unica soluzione soluzione razionale che contribuisce a risolvere gli opposti, ma ugualmente gravi, problemi dei paesi ricchi e dei paesi poveri: flussi migratori commisurati al fabbisogno quantitativo e qualitativo dei paesi economicamente sviluppati, ma organizzati congiuntamente dai paesi di destinazione e di partenza, dopo aver fornito ai futuri migranti l...
Different interpretations of migration confront themselves in the political arena. Considering tw... more Different interpretations of migration confront themselves in the political arena. Considering two factors, necessity and acceptability, the paper identifies four stereotyped visions: the society of the walls, the society of mercy, the society of ghettos, and the society of reason. The first three share the ideological assumption that migration flows are supply determined, that they are pushed by poverty, lack of jobs, and desperation due to the lack of perspectives of a better future. The fourth vision states, based on robust empirical evidence, that migrations are determined by the structural shortage of labour that characterizes an increasing number of Developed countries, in the presence of an unlimited supply of labour in the Least developed countries. The implication of this idea is that international migrations flows of increasing size are unavoidable and indispensable to both groups of countries that should reach a political agreement to jointly manage them with mutual advan...
Italy's traditionally high unemployment has often been linked to the supposed rigidity of the... more Italy's traditionally high unemployment has often been linked to the supposed rigidity of the labour market. In fact, the situation resembles a leopard skin, where competitive, dynamic activities coexist with protected, inefficient sectors. This carefully researched and topical book provides keys to understanding these contradictory features. It also shows how the crisis of 1992 has provided the impetus for radical reforms.
A brief analysis of the different demographic tendencies that will affect the 65 countries of the... more A brief analysis of the different demographic tendencies that will affect the 65 countries of the Belt and Road Initiative allows to point out that they are largely spread along the path of the demographic transition so that in some working age population will dramatically decline, in others will dramatically increase. The implication is that the first group of countries (epitomized by China, Russia, Thailand, but also by Singapore) will be affected by a structural shortage of labour, the second (well represented by India, but also by Pakistan, Egypt and Philippines) by a structural excess of labour. Therefore, for the countries of the first group immigration will not be an option but a necessity, while for the countries of the second group emigration will not be an option but a necessity. The situation suggests that it would be in the interest of all BRI countries to design, develop and implement a policy framework that would allow them to jointly manage migration flows in the amou...
The paper tries to synthesize the different interpretations of migration present on the ongoing d... more The paper tries to synthesize the different interpretations of migration present on the ongoing discussion. Considering only two factors, necessity and social acceptability, four stereotyped visions (the society of the walls, the society of mercy, the society of ghettos, and the society of reason) are identified. The first three share the ideological assumption that migration flows are supply determined, that they are pushed by poverty, lack of jobs, and desperation due to the lack of perspectives of a better future. The fourth vision strongly supports the idea that migrations are determined by the structural lack of labour that characterize many developed regions, in the presence of an unlimited supply of labour in many developing and underdeveloped countries. The implications and consequences of this approach is that migrations flows are are unavoidable and useful to both groups of countries that should reach political agreements to manage them in the advantage of both.
The aim of the research is to introduce a generational stock-flow model to estimate international... more The aim of the research is to introduce a generational stock-flow model to estimate international migration needs and provide long terms demographic forecasts in which migration is an endogenous variables determined by demographic trends and additional labor demand. At the empirical levels, it provides long term scenarios of net migratory balances and demographic trends for Italy. The main conclusion is that the decrease in fertility experienced by Italy, as by all industrialized countries, will not determine a contraction of population and working age population, as forecasted by all national and international statistical institutions, but will generate unprecedented population increases and international migratory flows
The paper proposes a new logical system to build demographic scenarios based on a model that expl... more The paper proposes a new logical system to build demographic scenarios based on a model that explain migration infl ows as a function of the manpower needs that countries with below replacement fertility are experiencing, as a result both of the decline in Working Age Population and employment growth. Using this approach we show that the WAP of countries characterized by low fertility will necessarily increase; that the migration balance of numerous countries will turn from negative to positive well before 2050; that the level of the international migration fl ows will progressively increase to unprecedented values so that at least 250-300 million people will move from developing countries to developed countries in the next 50 years; that the decline in fertility and the relative rates of employment growth of developed and developing countries will determine radical changes in the pattern of international migrations. The last part of the paper discusses some policy implications of t...
After recalling the classical definitions of stock and flow introduced by Fisher, the paper brief... more After recalling the classical definitions of stock and flow introduced by Fisher, the paper briefly summarizes Georgescu-Roegen’s analysis of the production process and his definitions of the concepts of stock and flow, and also of those of fund and services necessary in his approach. The paper does then propose new definitions of the same four concepts and explore their implications for a different and more realistic approach to labor market analysis.
ILO Regional Office for Arab States, 2014
Yemen’s development depends on the government’s ability to generate employment, promote education... more Yemen’s development depends on the government’s ability to generate employment, promote education and skills development, and provide decent employment conditions for its young generation and women. This, in turn, requires a strong commitment to social and economic reform, and the transformation of state institutions. The increase in labour market entrants means that the number of additional jobs the Yemeni economy would have to create on a yearly average to maintain an employment-to-population ratio of 75 per cent equates to 150,000 jobs a year. In this situation, Yemen’s economy is evidently struggling to absorb the increasing number of new entrants into the labour market.
The paper covers the findings of Employer Skills Needs Survey in 2012. This survey is the first o... more The paper covers the findings of Employer Skills Needs Survey in 2012. This survey is the first of its kind and coverage in Cambodia that aimed at understanding the needs of employers in finding and hiring workers. It reports on the existence of skills, as well as skilled and unskilled labour shortages in the six recently growing sectors in Cambodia including accommodation, construction, finance and insurance, food and beverages, garments, apparel and footwear, and rubber and plastics.
Since 1967 / Science to cultivate change www.ciat.cgiar.org According to climate model prediction... more Since 1967 / Science to cultivate change www.ciat.cgiar.org According to climate model predictions, most parts of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) will see significant temperature increases and changes in precipitation by 2050. In Guatemala, Colombia, and Jamaica, for example, such shifts will pose serious challenges for food supply chains in the face of increasing demand. If crop production is allowed to fall behind, this will not only lower national income and private sector growth but also jeopardize the food security and livelihoods of thousands of smallholder farmers. Policy makers must begin now to minimize the socioeconomic impacts of climate change through a coordinated effort to identify pro-active options for adaptation, which take into account the different impacts and degrees of vulnerability across locations, crops, supply chains, and cultures.
Many of the jobs created in the past ten years were not attractive to nationals, being predominan... more Many of the jobs created in the past ten years were not attractive to nationals, being predominantly low skilled, poorly paid and protected. The creation of jobs that are filled in by foreigners will continue for the foreseeable future. The case of Maldives appears therefore similar, from an economic point of view, to that of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. The review of the quota system will have to be done hand in hand with the Jobs Strategy, focusing on medium- and high-skilled jobs that are attractive to nationals. The low presence of Maldivians in higher-end occupations can be explained by several factors. First, as well documented in the existing literature, the weaknesses of the education and labour market training system play a critical role. The creation of jobs in high standard tourism activities since the 1990s required certain skills that were not available among nationals. TVET system did not effectively adapt and employers found it more convenient to recr...
The authors attempt to redefine the concepts "pressure to migrate" and "propensity... more The authors attempt to redefine the concepts "pressure to migrate" and "propensity to migrate" by developing a flow model of the labor market and applying it to migration in the Mediterranean region. The implications of the analysis for migration policies in both sending and receiving countries are discussed. (ANNOTATION)
The paper provides a stock-flow analysis of San Marino labor market in the framework of the demog... more The paper provides a stock-flow analysis of San Marino labor market in the framework of the demographic evolution of the country. The research covers the period 2003-2013 during which WAP was declining under the impact of the Demographic transition, while the economy of the country was first affected by a notable economic expansion and then by a deep crisis. After presenting jointly build labor market and demographic scenarios, the paper outlines some demographic and development policies that could be of interest in the incoming dialogue with EU.
A short summary of human population history, a critical analysis of available empirical evidence ... more A short summary of human population history, a critical analysis of available empirical evidence and an interpretation of data free of reverence toward the dominant theories bring to the conclusion that up to now the human population has experienced only two demographic regimes. The first was characterized by high rates of mortality and fertility. Its main characteristic was that man did not have the capability to control fertility and intervene on mortality so that periods of high demographic growth were followed by periods of pronounced demographic decline. In spite of this, at the end, the demographic history of men has been a success story. It is then argued that around 1850 an unprecedented demographic revolution was ignited by extraordinary advancements in medicine, chemistry and biology, as well as the development of new laboratory tools and techniques that opened the way to the introduction of powerful vaccines. This allowed defeating the most dangerous infectious diseases a...
L’apologo del Cinema Italia (che raccontai per la prima volta circa 35 anni or sono e ho poi rego... more L’apologo del Cinema Italia (che raccontai per la prima volta circa 35 anni or sono e ho poi regolarmente utilizzato per spiegare ai miei studenti le dinamiche del mercato del lavoro) viene qui rivisitato per spiegare le cause dei flussi migratori internazionali, mostrare che il fenomeno e ineludibile, capire perche i flussi stiano progressivamente aumentando e continueranno a farlo nel corso del secolo. Dopo averci fatto capire che i flussi migratori sono spiegati dalla carenza strutturale di offerta di lavoro che caratterizza i paesi ricchi, in presenza di una offerta illimitata nei paesi piu poveri, l’apologo mostra qual e l’unica soluzione soluzione razionale che contribuisce a risolvere gli opposti, ma ugualmente gravi, problemi dei paesi ricchi e dei paesi poveri: flussi migratori commisurati al fabbisogno quantitativo e qualitativo dei paesi economicamente sviluppati, ma organizzati congiuntamente dai paesi di destinazione e di partenza, dopo aver fornito ai futuri migranti l...
Different interpretations of migration confront themselves in the political arena. Considering tw... more Different interpretations of migration confront themselves in the political arena. Considering two factors, necessity and acceptability, the paper identifies four stereotyped visions: the society of the walls, the society of mercy, the society of ghettos, and the society of reason. The first three share the ideological assumption that migration flows are supply determined, that they are pushed by poverty, lack of jobs, and desperation due to the lack of perspectives of a better future. The fourth vision states, based on robust empirical evidence, that migrations are determined by the structural shortage of labour that characterizes an increasing number of Developed countries, in the presence of an unlimited supply of labour in the Least developed countries. The implication of this idea is that international migrations flows of increasing size are unavoidable and indispensable to both groups of countries that should reach a political agreement to jointly manage them with mutual advan...
Italy's traditionally high unemployment has often been linked to the supposed rigidity of the... more Italy's traditionally high unemployment has often been linked to the supposed rigidity of the labour market. In fact, the situation resembles a leopard skin, where competitive, dynamic activities coexist with protected, inefficient sectors. This carefully researched and topical book provides keys to understanding these contradictory features. It also shows how the crisis of 1992 has provided the impetus for radical reforms.
A brief analysis of the different demographic tendencies that will affect the 65 countries of the... more A brief analysis of the different demographic tendencies that will affect the 65 countries of the Belt and Road Initiative allows to point out that they are largely spread along the path of the demographic transition so that in some working age population will dramatically decline, in others will dramatically increase. The implication is that the first group of countries (epitomized by China, Russia, Thailand, but also by Singapore) will be affected by a structural shortage of labour, the second (well represented by India, but also by Pakistan, Egypt and Philippines) by a structural excess of labour. Therefore, for the countries of the first group immigration will not be an option but a necessity, while for the countries of the second group emigration will not be an option but a necessity. The situation suggests that it would be in the interest of all BRI countries to design, develop and implement a policy framework that would allow them to jointly manage migration flows in the amou...
The paper tries to synthesize the different interpretations of migration present on the ongoing d... more The paper tries to synthesize the different interpretations of migration present on the ongoing discussion. Considering only two factors, necessity and social acceptability, four stereotyped visions (the society of the walls, the society of mercy, the society of ghettos, and the society of reason) are identified. The first three share the ideological assumption that migration flows are supply determined, that they are pushed by poverty, lack of jobs, and desperation due to the lack of perspectives of a better future. The fourth vision strongly supports the idea that migrations are determined by the structural lack of labour that characterize many developed regions, in the presence of an unlimited supply of labour in many developing and underdeveloped countries. The implications and consequences of this approach is that migrations flows are are unavoidable and useful to both groups of countries that should reach political agreements to manage them in the advantage of both.
The aim of the research is to introduce a generational stock-flow model to estimate international... more The aim of the research is to introduce a generational stock-flow model to estimate international migration needs and provide long terms demographic forecasts in which migration is an endogenous variables determined by demographic trends and additional labor demand. At the empirical levels, it provides long term scenarios of net migratory balances and demographic trends for Italy. The main conclusion is that the decrease in fertility experienced by Italy, as by all industrialized countries, will not determine a contraction of population and working age population, as forecasted by all national and international statistical institutions, but will generate unprecedented population increases and international migratory flows
The paper proposes a new logical system to build demographic scenarios based on a model that expl... more The paper proposes a new logical system to build demographic scenarios based on a model that explain migration infl ows as a function of the manpower needs that countries with below replacement fertility are experiencing, as a result both of the decline in Working Age Population and employment growth. Using this approach we show that the WAP of countries characterized by low fertility will necessarily increase; that the migration balance of numerous countries will turn from negative to positive well before 2050; that the level of the international migration fl ows will progressively increase to unprecedented values so that at least 250-300 million people will move from developing countries to developed countries in the next 50 years; that the decline in fertility and the relative rates of employment growth of developed and developing countries will determine radical changes in the pattern of international migrations. The last part of the paper discusses some policy implications of t...
After recalling the classical definitions of stock and flow introduced by Fisher, the paper brief... more After recalling the classical definitions of stock and flow introduced by Fisher, the paper briefly summarizes Georgescu-Roegen’s analysis of the production process and his definitions of the concepts of stock and flow, and also of those of fund and services necessary in his approach. The paper does then propose new definitions of the same four concepts and explore their implications for a different and more realistic approach to labor market analysis.