devrim Yilmaz - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by devrim Yilmaz

Research Papers in Economics, 2021

Journal of Economic Policy Reform, 2011

The performance of alternative fiscal rules is examined in an endogenous growth model. The govern... more The performance of alternative fiscal rules is examined in an endogenous growth model. The government spends money on infrastructure, maintenance, and health. Infrastructure affects the production of both commodities and health services. The performance of a balanced budget rule, as well as standard and modified golden rules (including and excluding productive spending) and primary surplus rules are compared numerically. Under a range of plausible parameter configurations, a primary surplus rule that excludes productive spending performs better (in a growth sense, although not necessarily from the perspective of short-run macro stability) than alternative rules in response to a variety of shocks.

The recent global crisis not only led to a questioning of mainstream macroeconomic theories and t... more The recent global crisis not only led to a questioning of mainstream macroeconomic theories and their relevance in designing economic policy, among the academic community and policymakers, but it also sparked a growing dissatisfaction with the way economics is taught in universities around the world. Recently, the student movement to reform economics education has consolidated globally and managed to find extensive media coverage. Here, we present a brief outline of the recent history of this student movement in Europe and in the UK, provide a critical assessment of its main strengths and weaknesses, and draw some broad conclusions and lessons for students, heterodox economists and similar social movements. We argue that the student movement should be seen as part of the broader social struggle against unfettered capitalism in the post-crisis period. However, in our opinion, while the student movement has been successful in drawing public attention to the problems in economics educa...

Economists have predicted that damages from global warming will be as low as 2.1% of global econo... more Economists have predicted that damages from global warming will be as low as 2.1% of global economic production for a 3◦C rise in global average surface temperature, and 7.9% for a 6◦C rise. Such relatively trivial estimates of economic damages—when these economists otherwise assume that human economic productivity will be an order of magnitude higher than today—contrast strongly with predictions made by scientists of significantly reduced human habitability from climate change. Nonetheless, the coupled economic and climate models used to make such predictions have been influential in the international climate change debate and policy prescriptions. Here we review the empirical work done by economists and show that it severely underestimates damages from climate change by committing several methodological errors, including neglecting tipping points, and assuming that economic sectors not exposed to the weather are insulated from climate change. Most fundamentally, the influential In...

The performance of alternative fiscal rules is examined in an endogenous growth model with public... more The performance of alternative fiscal rules is examined in an endogenous growth model with public capital and debt. In addition to investing in infrastructure, the government spends on maintenance and health. Infrastructure affects the production of both commodities and health services. The performance of a balanced budget rule, as well as standard and modified (including and excluding productive spending) golden rules and primary surplus rules are compared numerically. Under a range of plausible parameter configurations and spending shares, and as long as the debt-related risk premium is not too elastic, a primary surplus rule that excludes productive spending is shown to perform better than alternative rules in response to a variety of shocks. As a practical policy implication, we propose the definition of a transparent Core Productive Expenditure Program. JEL Classification Numbers: O41, H54, I28. ∗Hallsworth Professor of International Macroeconomics and Development Economics, Un...

Centre For Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, 2013

International Journal of Finance & Economics, 2012

Centre for Growth and Business …, 2008

This paper studies the optimal taxation structure and public main% tenance spending in an endogen... more This paper studies the optimal taxation structure and public main% tenance spending in an endogenous growth model where public main% tenance spending effects the effi ciency of public and private capital. Private firms also spend on maintenance, which increases the effi e% icieny of ...

Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2016

This paper analyzes the dynamics of public debt in a simple two-period overlapping-generations mo... more This paper analyzes the dynamics of public debt in a simple two-period overlapping-generations model of endogenous growth with productive public goods. Alternative fiscal rules are defined, with particular attention devoted to the golden rule. Conditions under which multiple equilibria may emerge are characterized. The analysis is then extended to consider the case of partial depreciation, an endogenous risk premium, an endogenous primary surplus rule, a generalized golden rule, a nonseparable utility function, and network externalities. If network effects are sufficiently strong, an increase in public investment may shift the economy from a low-growth equilibrium to a steady state characterized by both higher public debt ratios and higher output growth. This shift may enhance welfare as well. These results illustrate the importance of preserving, even in a context of fiscal retrenchment, the allocation of resources to specific types of public investment.

Research Papers in Economics, 2021

Journal of Economic Policy Reform, 2011

The performance of alternative fiscal rules is examined in an endogenous growth model. The govern... more The performance of alternative fiscal rules is examined in an endogenous growth model. The government spends money on infrastructure, maintenance, and health. Infrastructure affects the production of both commodities and health services. The performance of a balanced budget rule, as well as standard and modified golden rules (including and excluding productive spending) and primary surplus rules are compared numerically. Under a range of plausible parameter configurations, a primary surplus rule that excludes productive spending performs better (in a growth sense, although not necessarily from the perspective of short-run macro stability) than alternative rules in response to a variety of shocks.

The recent global crisis not only led to a questioning of mainstream macroeconomic theories and t... more The recent global crisis not only led to a questioning of mainstream macroeconomic theories and their relevance in designing economic policy, among the academic community and policymakers, but it also sparked a growing dissatisfaction with the way economics is taught in universities around the world. Recently, the student movement to reform economics education has consolidated globally and managed to find extensive media coverage. Here, we present a brief outline of the recent history of this student movement in Europe and in the UK, provide a critical assessment of its main strengths and weaknesses, and draw some broad conclusions and lessons for students, heterodox economists and similar social movements. We argue that the student movement should be seen as part of the broader social struggle against unfettered capitalism in the post-crisis period. However, in our opinion, while the student movement has been successful in drawing public attention to the problems in economics educa...

Economists have predicted that damages from global warming will be as low as 2.1% of global econo... more Economists have predicted that damages from global warming will be as low as 2.1% of global economic production for a 3◦C rise in global average surface temperature, and 7.9% for a 6◦C rise. Such relatively trivial estimates of economic damages—when these economists otherwise assume that human economic productivity will be an order of magnitude higher than today—contrast strongly with predictions made by scientists of significantly reduced human habitability from climate change. Nonetheless, the coupled economic and climate models used to make such predictions have been influential in the international climate change debate and policy prescriptions. Here we review the empirical work done by economists and show that it severely underestimates damages from climate change by committing several methodological errors, including neglecting tipping points, and assuming that economic sectors not exposed to the weather are insulated from climate change. Most fundamentally, the influential In...

The performance of alternative fiscal rules is examined in an endogenous growth model with public... more The performance of alternative fiscal rules is examined in an endogenous growth model with public capital and debt. In addition to investing in infrastructure, the government spends on maintenance and health. Infrastructure affects the production of both commodities and health services. The performance of a balanced budget rule, as well as standard and modified (including and excluding productive spending) golden rules and primary surplus rules are compared numerically. Under a range of plausible parameter configurations and spending shares, and as long as the debt-related risk premium is not too elastic, a primary surplus rule that excludes productive spending is shown to perform better than alternative rules in response to a variety of shocks. As a practical policy implication, we propose the definition of a transparent Core Productive Expenditure Program. JEL Classification Numbers: O41, H54, I28. ∗Hallsworth Professor of International Macroeconomics and Development Economics, Un...

Centre For Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, 2013

International Journal of Finance & Economics, 2012

Centre for Growth and Business …, 2008

This paper studies the optimal taxation structure and public main% tenance spending in an endogen... more This paper studies the optimal taxation structure and public main% tenance spending in an endogenous growth model where public main% tenance spending effects the effi ciency of public and private capital. Private firms also spend on maintenance, which increases the effi e% icieny of ...

Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2016

This paper analyzes the dynamics of public debt in a simple two-period overlapping-generations mo... more This paper analyzes the dynamics of public debt in a simple two-period overlapping-generations model of endogenous growth with productive public goods. Alternative fiscal rules are defined, with particular attention devoted to the golden rule. Conditions under which multiple equilibria may emerge are characterized. The analysis is then extended to consider the case of partial depreciation, an endogenous risk premium, an endogenous primary surplus rule, a generalized golden rule, a nonseparable utility function, and network externalities. If network effects are sufficiently strong, an increase in public investment may shift the economy from a low-growth equilibrium to a steady state characterized by both higher public debt ratios and higher output growth. This shift may enhance welfare as well. These results illustrate the importance of preserving, even in a context of fiscal retrenchment, the allocation of resources to specific types of public investment.