isa shuaibu - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by isa shuaibu

This paper examines the residential demand for electricity in Nigeria as a function of real gross... more This paper examines the residential demand for electricity in Nigeria as a function of real gross domestic product per capita, and the price of electricity, the price of substitute and population between 1970 and 2006. We make use of the bounds testing approach to cointegration within an autoregressive distributed framework, suggested by Pesaran et al. [2001. Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics 16(3) 289–326]. In the long run, we find that income, the price of substitute and population emerges as the main determinant of electricity demand in Nigeria, while electricity price is insignificant. The relationship among variables is more stable and significant. The relationship among variables is more stable and significant

Nigeria continues its recovery from the 2016 recession, sustaining an estimated 2 percent growthr... more Nigeria continues its recovery from the 2016 recession, sustaining an estimated 2 percent growthrate in 2019. The collapse of global oil prices during 2014–16, combined with lower domestic oil production, led to a sudden slowdown in economic activity. Nigeria’s annual real GDP growth rate, which averaged 7 percent from 2000 to 2014, fell to 2.7 percent in 2015 and to -1.6 percent in 2016. Growth rebounded to 0.8 percent in 2017, 1.9 percent in 2018, and then plateaued at 2 percent in the first half of 2019, where it is expected to remain for the rest of the year. Services, particularly telecoms, remained the main driver of growth in 2019, although trade started contracting amidst increasing use of policy measures aimed at import substitution. Agricultural growth picked up slightly but remains affected by insurgency in the Northeast region and ongoing farmer-herder conflicts. Industrial performance was mixed: growth in the oil sector remained stable, but manufacturing production slow...

Nigeria's emergence from recession remains slow: real GDP grew by 1.9 percent in 2018. While ... more Nigeria's emergence from recession remains slow: real GDP grew by 1.9 percent in 2018. While this was above the 0.8 percent growth of 2017, it was below the population growth rate, government projections and pre-recession levels. The oil and gas sector reverted to contraction from the second quarter of the year and the non-oil economy was thus the main driver of growth in 2018. While agriculture slowed down significantly due to conflict and weather events, whose effects were not counteracted by direct interventions by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), non-oil, non-agricultural growth, which remained negative up to the third quarter of 2017 strengthened through 2018 - but remained weak – with services (primarily ICT) resuming as the key driver. As the oil sector is not labor-intensive, and the non-oil economy was still relatively weak, nearly a quarter of the work force was unemployed in 2018; and another 20 percent under-employed. With 3.9 million net entrants into the labor fo...

The Indian Economic Journal, 2011

This paper estimates an inflation model for Nigeria by examining the existence of a significant l... more This paper estimates an inflation model for Nigeria by examining the existence of a significant long-run relationship between inflation and bank lending and to identify the main economic fundamentals that influence the relationship as well as other variables that determined inflation between 1980 and 2008. We make use of the bounds testing approach to cointegration within an autoregressive distributed framework, suggested by Pesaran et al., (2001). In the long run, we find that bank lending and real income emerge as the main determinants of inflation in Nigeria, while fiscal deficits and exchange rates are insignificant. The relationships among the variables are stable and significant.

Greener Journal of Microbiology and Antimicrobials, 2013

This study was conducted on the incidence of tuberculosis among patients attending Tuberculosis L... more This study was conducted on the incidence of tuberculosis among patients attending Tuberculosis Laborarory (TBL) of Gombe State Specialist Hospital Gombe. Three hundred (300) samples from 100 patients were collected in three phases as initial spot, morning and final spot, and were analysed for the presence of the tubercle bacilli. Of the 100 patients scrutinised, 55 were males and the remaining 45 were females. Out of the 55 males, 17(30.1%) were found to be positive for TB and the remaining 38(69.9%) were negative. For the females however, 8 (17.8%) were positive for TB while the remaining 37(82.2%) were negative. Of the 300 samples, 28(82.4) were found to be positive for TB in both spots (initial and final) while 16(94%) were found positive for morning spot. In all, males were having the higher incidence than their female's counterparts (Stybio, 1986) because of the higher expossure and lesser hygienic condition than their female counterparts.

Economics Bulletin, Dec 23, 2013

This paper examined the nexus between energy consumption, CO2 emissions and economic growth in Ni... more This paper examined the nexus between energy consumption, CO2 emissions and economic growth in Nigeria, for the period 1970-2011 within a dynamic multivariate framework. Specifically, we rely on the Zivot-Andrews unit root test, Gregory-Hansen cointegration test and subsequently estimate our model using the Granger non-causality test (proposed by Toda and Yomamoto). Our findings showed that even with the observed break points in 1991 and 1992, energy consumption, CO2 emissions and economic growth were cointegrated. However, perhaps due to the structural shifts, no causal relationship running from CO2 emission and energy consumption to economic growth was observed. We also found that the effect of CO2 emissions and energy consumption on growth in Nigeria is time-varying between, before and after the structural breakpoint. An important policy implication resulting from our analysis is the need for government to re-focus its energy policies in pursuit of renewable energy sources that are environmentally friendly and which will have minimal effects on long-term growth in terms of CO2 emissions.

African Development Review, 2015

This paper conducts an empirical investigation of the relationship between trade liberalization a... more This paper conducts an empirical investigation of the relationship between trade liberalization and intra-ECOWAS in selected economies. Using system and difference generalized method of moments, findings showed that trade liberalization has contributed to intra-regional trade in West Africa. Our results also show that better institutional quality and infrastructure are associated with higher intra-ECOWAS trade. Furthermore, using fixed and random effect estimators our findings were validated, thus reinforcing support to the hypothesis that removal of trade restrictions particularly in the manufacturing and primary sectors, good governance and infrastructural developments enhance trade amongst ECOWAS countries.

Journal of Reviews on Global Economics, 2014

In this paper, we reassess the traditional import demand function and an augmented version that i... more In this paper, we reassess the traditional import demand function and an augmented version that includes volatility of external reserves and oil revenue inflows as explanatory variables. In each version, we examine the role of regime shifts on the stability of Nigeria's import demand function which has been ignored in previous studies. Our findings suggest the existence of a long-run relationship between import demand and its determinants. We also present evidence of one-way causality running from changes in relative prices, oil revenue inflows and volatility of international reserves to import demand in Nigeria. However, when structural breaks were introduced, bi-directional causality is observed; indicating the critical role of regime shifts in determining the stability of Nigeria's import demand. The results make a case for diversifying Nigeria's revenue inflows in a bid to dampen the effect of contemporaneous shocks that affect external reserve accumulation thereby weakening its import financing capacity.

africametrics.org

This paper examines the residential demand for electricity in Nigeria as a function of real gross... more This paper examines the residential demand for electricity in Nigeria as a function of real gross domestic product per capita, and the price of electricity, the price of substitute and population between 1970 and 2006. We make use of the bounds testing approach to cointegration within an autoregressive distributed framework, suggested by Pesaran et al. [2001. Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics 16(3) 289-326]. In the long run, we find that income, the price of substitute and population emerges as the main determinant of electricity demand in Nigeria, while electricity price is insignificant. The relationship among variables is more stable and significant. The relationship among variables is more stable and significant

This paper examines the residential demand for electricity in Nigeria as a function of real gross... more This paper examines the residential demand for electricity in Nigeria as a function of real gross domestic product per capita, and the price of electricity, the price of substitute and population between 1970 and 2006. We make use of the bounds testing approach to cointegration within an autoregressive distributed framework, suggested by Pesaran et al. [2001. Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics 16(3) 289–326]. In the long run, we find that income, the price of substitute and population emerges as the main determinant of electricity demand in Nigeria, while electricity price is insignificant. The relationship among variables is more stable and significant. The relationship among variables is more stable and significant

Nigeria continues its recovery from the 2016 recession, sustaining an estimated 2 percent growthr... more Nigeria continues its recovery from the 2016 recession, sustaining an estimated 2 percent growthrate in 2019. The collapse of global oil prices during 2014–16, combined with lower domestic oil production, led to a sudden slowdown in economic activity. Nigeria’s annual real GDP growth rate, which averaged 7 percent from 2000 to 2014, fell to 2.7 percent in 2015 and to -1.6 percent in 2016. Growth rebounded to 0.8 percent in 2017, 1.9 percent in 2018, and then plateaued at 2 percent in the first half of 2019, where it is expected to remain for the rest of the year. Services, particularly telecoms, remained the main driver of growth in 2019, although trade started contracting amidst increasing use of policy measures aimed at import substitution. Agricultural growth picked up slightly but remains affected by insurgency in the Northeast region and ongoing farmer-herder conflicts. Industrial performance was mixed: growth in the oil sector remained stable, but manufacturing production slow...

Nigeria's emergence from recession remains slow: real GDP grew by 1.9 percent in 2018. While ... more Nigeria's emergence from recession remains slow: real GDP grew by 1.9 percent in 2018. While this was above the 0.8 percent growth of 2017, it was below the population growth rate, government projections and pre-recession levels. The oil and gas sector reverted to contraction from the second quarter of the year and the non-oil economy was thus the main driver of growth in 2018. While agriculture slowed down significantly due to conflict and weather events, whose effects were not counteracted by direct interventions by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), non-oil, non-agricultural growth, which remained negative up to the third quarter of 2017 strengthened through 2018 - but remained weak – with services (primarily ICT) resuming as the key driver. As the oil sector is not labor-intensive, and the non-oil economy was still relatively weak, nearly a quarter of the work force was unemployed in 2018; and another 20 percent under-employed. With 3.9 million net entrants into the labor fo...

The Indian Economic Journal, 2011

This paper estimates an inflation model for Nigeria by examining the existence of a significant l... more This paper estimates an inflation model for Nigeria by examining the existence of a significant long-run relationship between inflation and bank lending and to identify the main economic fundamentals that influence the relationship as well as other variables that determined inflation between 1980 and 2008. We make use of the bounds testing approach to cointegration within an autoregressive distributed framework, suggested by Pesaran et al., (2001). In the long run, we find that bank lending and real income emerge as the main determinants of inflation in Nigeria, while fiscal deficits and exchange rates are insignificant. The relationships among the variables are stable and significant.

Greener Journal of Microbiology and Antimicrobials, 2013

This study was conducted on the incidence of tuberculosis among patients attending Tuberculosis L... more This study was conducted on the incidence of tuberculosis among patients attending Tuberculosis Laborarory (TBL) of Gombe State Specialist Hospital Gombe. Three hundred (300) samples from 100 patients were collected in three phases as initial spot, morning and final spot, and were analysed for the presence of the tubercle bacilli. Of the 100 patients scrutinised, 55 were males and the remaining 45 were females. Out of the 55 males, 17(30.1%) were found to be positive for TB and the remaining 38(69.9%) were negative. For the females however, 8 (17.8%) were positive for TB while the remaining 37(82.2%) were negative. Of the 300 samples, 28(82.4) were found to be positive for TB in both spots (initial and final) while 16(94%) were found positive for morning spot. In all, males were having the higher incidence than their female's counterparts (Stybio, 1986) because of the higher expossure and lesser hygienic condition than their female counterparts.

Economics Bulletin, Dec 23, 2013

This paper examined the nexus between energy consumption, CO2 emissions and economic growth in Ni... more This paper examined the nexus between energy consumption, CO2 emissions and economic growth in Nigeria, for the period 1970-2011 within a dynamic multivariate framework. Specifically, we rely on the Zivot-Andrews unit root test, Gregory-Hansen cointegration test and subsequently estimate our model using the Granger non-causality test (proposed by Toda and Yomamoto). Our findings showed that even with the observed break points in 1991 and 1992, energy consumption, CO2 emissions and economic growth were cointegrated. However, perhaps due to the structural shifts, no causal relationship running from CO2 emission and energy consumption to economic growth was observed. We also found that the effect of CO2 emissions and energy consumption on growth in Nigeria is time-varying between, before and after the structural breakpoint. An important policy implication resulting from our analysis is the need for government to re-focus its energy policies in pursuit of renewable energy sources that are environmentally friendly and which will have minimal effects on long-term growth in terms of CO2 emissions.

African Development Review, 2015

This paper conducts an empirical investigation of the relationship between trade liberalization a... more This paper conducts an empirical investigation of the relationship between trade liberalization and intra-ECOWAS in selected economies. Using system and difference generalized method of moments, findings showed that trade liberalization has contributed to intra-regional trade in West Africa. Our results also show that better institutional quality and infrastructure are associated with higher intra-ECOWAS trade. Furthermore, using fixed and random effect estimators our findings were validated, thus reinforcing support to the hypothesis that removal of trade restrictions particularly in the manufacturing and primary sectors, good governance and infrastructural developments enhance trade amongst ECOWAS countries.

Journal of Reviews on Global Economics, 2014

In this paper, we reassess the traditional import demand function and an augmented version that i... more In this paper, we reassess the traditional import demand function and an augmented version that includes volatility of external reserves and oil revenue inflows as explanatory variables. In each version, we examine the role of regime shifts on the stability of Nigeria's import demand function which has been ignored in previous studies. Our findings suggest the existence of a long-run relationship between import demand and its determinants. We also present evidence of one-way causality running from changes in relative prices, oil revenue inflows and volatility of international reserves to import demand in Nigeria. However, when structural breaks were introduced, bi-directional causality is observed; indicating the critical role of regime shifts in determining the stability of Nigeria's import demand. The results make a case for diversifying Nigeria's revenue inflows in a bid to dampen the effect of contemporaneous shocks that affect external reserve accumulation thereby weakening its import financing capacity.

africametrics.org

This paper examines the residential demand for electricity in Nigeria as a function of real gross... more This paper examines the residential demand for electricity in Nigeria as a function of real gross domestic product per capita, and the price of electricity, the price of substitute and population between 1970 and 2006. We make use of the bounds testing approach to cointegration within an autoregressive distributed framework, suggested by Pesaran et al. [2001. Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics 16(3) 289-326]. In the long run, we find that income, the price of substitute and population emerges as the main determinant of electricity demand in Nigeria, while electricity price is insignificant. The relationship among variables is more stable and significant. The relationship among variables is more stable and significant