jeffrey lee funk - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by jeffrey lee funk

Global Competition Between and Within Standards, 2002

This chapter looks at a number of theoretical issues that play a key role in this competition bet... more This chapter looks at a number of theoretical issues that play a key role in this competition between and within standards. It begins by placing the competition between and within standards within the context of the technology change literature. The technology change literature argues that standards are created in response to the emergence of new technologies, often called technological discontinuities. The chapter examines the theoretical issues surrounding this competition between standards, including the literature on the roles of markets and comrnittees in the competition between standards and the hypotheses that investment size and interface ambiguity moderate the role of these committees and markets.

Research Policy, Apr 1, 2001

The existing literature on industrial standards almost exclusively focuses on pure market competi... more The existing literature on industrial standards almost exclusively focuses on pure market competition; this paper shows how and why both governments and firms have had a strong effect on the creation of global standards in the mobile communication industry through a hybrid system of committees and markets. According to our model, governments can and did influence forecasted and actual installed base for systems in the mobile communications industry through their influence Ž. on product demand e.g., by determining the amount of competition in the market and the number of and degree of Ž. openness in the standards. In particular, the choice of a single standard by either a large single country or region dramatically and instantaneously increased the forecast for the standard's domestic installed base, thus causing other countries to also adopt the standard.

IEEE Spectrum, 2020

In the 5G system, we foresee the use of LOS-dominated mm-wave radio links to moving users being s... more In the 5G system, we foresee the use of LOS-dominated mm-wave radio links to moving users being subject to slow fading resulting from the users' random locations and orientations. We refer to this as a random-LOS channel. MIMO processing algorithms will be used in 5G to improve performance in slow fading, similar to how they are used in Rayleigh fading. To this end, we study the probability of detection in the random-LOS channel when there are dual-polarized antennas on both sides of the link. We introduce two polarization deficiencies: the polarization non-orthogonality and the amplitude imbalance between the ports of a two-port antenna. The MIMO efficiency is evaluated as a function of these deficiencies. In the analysis, we consider the MRC algorithm for one bitstream, and the ZF and SVD algorithms for two bitstreams. We also present two analytical formulas for the MIMO efficiency that can be used to determine performance. We use the formulas on two ideally orthogonal dipoles, and show by means of coverage plots how much the 1-and 2-bitstream performances degrade due to the polarization deficiencies in off-boresight directions. INDEX TERMS Antenna theory, line-of-sight, polarization-MIMO, antenna measurements.

This paper analyzes the process by which new technologies replace old ones and in particular the ... more This paper analyzes the process by which new technologies replace old ones and in particular the process by which improvements in the new technologies occur. Before new technologies can be considered for implementation or adoption, they must reach certain levels of performance and cost. How do they reach such levels? The predominant viewpoint is that the onset of limits or slowdowns in old technologies motivate or lead to the development and improvement of new technologies. This paper addresses the issue by analyzing performance vs. time curves and the history behind these curves for 15 pairs of new and old technologies. It finds that most new technologies experienced improvements long before slowdowns occurred in the old technologies and it proposes a different explanation for what motivates the development and improvement of new technologies.

Long Range Planning, 2012

This article shows how the emergence of vertical disintegration has been a major source of entrep... more This article shows how the emergence of vertical disintegration has been a major source of entrepreneurial opportunities in three sectors of the U.S. economy. Not only does it enable more than one hundred thousand firms to co-exist in these sectors, but changes in the levels of vertical disintegration continue to occur, and continue to create entrepreneurial opportunities. This suggests that recognizing how and when vertical disintegration emerges are critical issues for entrepreneurs. This article shows how reductions in transaction costs, which can come from the emergence of open modular designs, open standards, and legal, regulatory and firm decisions, drive the emergence of vertical disintegration and thus the emergence of many entrepreneurial opportunities.

Industrial and Corporate Change, 2017

This article shows how new forms of electronic products and services become economically feasible... more This article shows how new forms of electronic products and services become economically feasible and thus candidates for commercialization and creative destruction as improvements in standard electronic components such as microprocessors, memory, and displays occur. Unlike the predominant viewpoint in which commercialization is reached, as advances in science facilitate design changes that enable improvements in performance and cost, most new forms of electronic products and services are not invented in a scientific sense, and the cost and performance of them are primarily driven by improvements in standard components. They become candidates for commercialization, as the cost and performance of standard components reach the levels necessary for the final products and services to have the required levels of performance and cost. This suggests that when managers, policy makers, engineers, and entrepreneurs consider the choice and timing of commercializing new electronic products and services, they should understand the composition of new technologies, the impact of components on a technology’s cost, performance and design, and the rates of improvement in the components.

PloS one, 2017

Although high degrees of reliability have been found for many types of forecasts purportedly due ... more Although high degrees of reliability have been found for many types of forecasts purportedly due to the existence of accountability, public forecasts of technology are rarely assessed and continue to have a poor reputation. This paper's analysis of forecasts made by MIT's Technology Review provides a rare assessment and thus a means to encourage accountability. It first shows that few of the predicted "breakthrough technologies" currently have large markets. Only four have sales greater than 10billionwhileeighttechnologiesnotpredictedbyTechnologyReviewhavesalesgreaterthan10 billion while eight technologies not predicted by Technology Review have sales greater than 10billionwhileeighttechnologiesnotpredictedbyTechnologyReviewhavesalesgreaterthan10 billion including three with greater than 100billionandoneotherwithgreaterthan100 billion and one other with greater than 100billionandoneotherwithgreaterthan50 billion. Second, possible reasons for these poor forecasts are then discussed including an over emphasis on the science-based process of technology change, sometimes called the linear model of innovation. Third, this paper describes a different model of technology change, one that is widely...

Although high degrees of reliability have been found for many types of forecasts purportedly due ... more Although high degrees of reliability have been found for many types of forecasts purportedly due to the existence of accountability, public forecasts of technology are rarely assessed and continue to have a poor reputation. This paper's analysis of forecasts made by MIT's Technology Review provides a rare assessment and thus a means to encourage accountability. It first shows that few of the predicted " breakthrough technologies " currently have large markets. Only four have sales greater than 10billionwhileeighttechnologiesnotpredictedbyTechnologyReviewhavesalesgreaterthan10 billion while eight technologies not predicted by Technology Review have sales greater than 10billionwhileeighttechnologiesnotpredictedbyTechnologyReviewhavesalesgreaterthan10 billion including three with greater than 100billionandoneotherwithgreaterthan100 billion and one other with greater than 100billionandoneotherwithgreaterthan50 billion. Second, possible reasons for these poor forecasts are then discussed including an over emphasis on the science-based process of technology change, sometimes called the linear model of innovation. Third, this paper describes a different model of technology change, one that is widely used by private companies and that explains the emergence of those technologies that have greater than $10 billion in sales. Fourth, technology change and forecasts are discussed in terms of cog-nitive biases and mental models.

This paper empirically examines 13 technologies in which significant cost and performance improve... more This paper empirically examines 13 technologies in which significant cost and performance improvements occurred even while no commercial production occurred. Since the literature emphasizes cost reductions through increases in cumulative production, this paper explores cost and performance improvements from a new perspective. The results demonstrate that learning in these pre-commercial production cases arises through mechanisms utilized in deliberate R&D efforts. We identity three mechanisms – materials creation, process changes, and reductions in feature scale – that enable these improvements to occur and use them to extend models of learning and invention. These mechanisms can also apply during post-commercial time periods and further research is needed to quantify the relative contributions of these three mechanisms and those of production-based learning in a variety of technologies.

This article shows how new forms of electronic products and services become economically feasible... more This article shows how new forms of electronic products and services become economically feasible and thus candidates for commercialization and creative destruction as improvements in standard electronic components such as microprocessors, memory, and displays occur. Unlike the predominant viewpoint in which commercialization is reached, as advances in science facilitate design changes that enable improvements in performance and cost, most new forms of electronic products and services are not invented in a scientific sense, and the cost and performance of them are primarily driven by improvements in standard components. They become candidates for commercialization, as the cost and performance of standard components reach the levels necessary for the final products and services to have the required levels of performance and cost. This suggests that when managers, policy makers, engineers, and entrepreneurs consider the choice and timing of commercializing new electronic products and services, they should understand the composition of new technologies, the impact of components on a technology's cost, performance and design, and the rates of improvement in the components.

Technology in Society, 2005

... It seemed an appropriate moment to consider the implications of these types of services as th... more ... It seemed an appropriate moment to consider the implications of these types of services as they affect the future of the mobile Internet. ... This article utilizes the concepts of technological trajectories and lead users to forecast the future of mobile phone Internet applications. ...

2007 IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management, 2007

2008 4th IEEE International Conference on Management of Innovation and Technology, 2008

2010 IEEE International Conference on Management of Innovation & Technology, 2010

Complex Systems Design & Management Asia, 2015

2010 IEEE International Conference on Management of Innovation & Technology, 2010

Global Competition Between and Within Standards, 2002

Research Policy, Apr 1, 2001

IEEE Spectrum, 2020

Long Range Planning, 2012

Industrial and Corporate Change, 2017

PloS one, 2017

Although high degrees of reliability have been found for many types of forecasts purportedly due ... more Although high degrees of reliability have been found for many types of forecasts purportedly due to the existence of accountability, public forecasts of technology are rarely assessed and continue to have a poor reputation. This paper's analysis of forecasts made by MIT's Technology Review provides a rare assessment and thus a means to encourage accountability. It first shows that few of the predicted " breakthrough technologies " currently have large markets. Only four have sales greater than 10billionwhileeighttechnologiesnotpredictedbyTechnologyReviewhavesalesgreaterthan10 billion while eight technologies not predicted by Technology Review have sales greater than 10billionwhileeighttechnologiesnotpredictedbyTechnologyReviewhavesalesgreaterthan10 billion including three with greater than 100billionandoneotherwithgreaterthan100 billion and one other with greater than 100billionandoneotherwithgreaterthan50 billion. Second, possible reasons for these poor forecasts are then discussed including an over emphasis on the science-based process of technology change, sometimes called the linear model of innovation. Third, this paper describes a different model of technology change, one that is widely used by private companies and that explains the emergence of those technologies that have greater than $10 billion in sales. Fourth, technology change and forecasts are discussed in terms of cog-nitive biases and mental models.

This article shows how new forms of electronic products and services become economically feasible... more This article shows how new forms of electronic products and services become economically feasible and thus candidates for commercialization and creative destruction as improvements in standard electronic components such as microprocessors, memory, and displays occur. Unlike the predominant viewpoint in which commercialization is reached, as advances in science facilitate design changes that enable improvements in performance and cost, most new forms of electronic products and services are not invented in a scientific sense, and the cost and performance of them are primarily driven by improvements in standard components. They become candidates for commercialization, as the cost and performance of standard components reach the levels necessary for the final products and services to have the required levels of performance and cost. This suggests that when managers, policy makers, engineers, and entrepreneurs consider the choice and timing of commercializing new electronic products and services, they should understand the composition of new technologies, the impact of components on a technology's cost, performance and design, and the rates of improvement in the components.

Technology in Society, 2005

2007 IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management, 2007

2008 4th IEEE International Conference on Management of Innovation and Technology, 2008

2010 IEEE International Conference on Management of Innovation & Technology, 2010

Complex Systems Design & Management Asia, 2015

2010 IEEE International Conference on Management of Innovation & Technology, 2010