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Research paper thumbnail of Lockdown and licensed premises: COVID ‐19 lessons for alcohol policy

Drug and Alcohol Review, 2021

Introduction. The COVID-19 pandemic necessitated unprecedented changes in alcohol availability, i... more Introduction. The COVID-19 pandemic necessitated unprecedented changes in alcohol availability, including closures, curfews and restrictions. We draw on new data from three UK studies exploring these issues to identify implications for premises licensing and wider policy. Methods. (i) Semi-structured interviews (n = 17) with licensing stakeholders in Scotland and England reporting how COVID-19 has reshaped local licensing and alcohol-related harms; (ii) semi-structured interviews (n = 15) with ambulance clinicians reporting experiences with alcohol during the pandemic; and (iii) descriptive and time series analyses of alcohol-related ambulance callouts in Scotland before and during the first UK lockdown (1 January 2019 to 30 June 2020). Results. COVID-19 restrictions (closures, curfews) affected on-trade premises only and licensing stakeholders highlighted the relaxation of some laws (e.g. on takeaway alcohol) and a rise in home drinking as having long-term risks for public health. Ambulance clinicians described a welcome break from pre-pandemic mass public intoxication and huge reductions in alcohol-related callouts at night-time. They also highlighted potential long-term risks of increased home drinking. The national lockdown was associated with an absolute fall of 2.14 percentage points [95% confidence interval (CI) À3.54, À0.74; P = 0.003] in alcohol-related callouts as a percentage of total callouts, followed by a daily increase of +0.03% (95% CI 0.010, 0.05; P = 0.004). Discussion and Conclusions. COVID-19 gave rise to both restrictions on premises and relaxations of licensing, with initial reductions in alcohol-related ambulance callouts, a rise in home drinking and diverse impacts on businesses. Policies which may protect on-trade businesses, while reshaping the night-time economy away from alcohol-related harms, could offer a 'win-win' for policymakers and health advocates.

Research paper thumbnail of Hospital discharge location and socioeconomic deprivation as risk factors for alcohol dependence relapses: A cohort study

Drug and Alcohol Dependence, 2021

BACKGROUND There is evidence that social support can improve the ability of an individual with al... more BACKGROUND There is evidence that social support can improve the ability of an individual with alcohol use disorder to manage relapses. However, the role of families and friends in this context is debated as family history and co-drinking are also risk factors for initiating alcohol drinking or maintaining addictive behaviours. AIM To quantitatively evaluate whether the hospital discharge location (in company or alone) after an alcohol dependence hospitalisation can influence the risk of relapses and whether this impact is modified by socioeconomic deprivation. METHODS A cohort of 1141 patients hospitalised for the first time for alcohol dependence in Scotland between 2010 and 2019 was derived from a routine healthcare database. Relapses were defined as recurrent alcohol-related hospitalisation. Survival analysis was undertaken to compare the risk of relapse for different discharge locations and socioeconomic deprivation groups. RESULTS On average, living in company of others was associated with a significant lower risk of relapses compared to living alone (HR: 0.84 95%CI: 0.71-0.99). This association differed across socioeconomic groups, being greater for those living in areas with the highest level of socioeconomic deprivation (HR: 0.76 95%CI: 0.57-1.01) and lower elsewhere. While this effect was not statistically significant (p = 0.056), its extent varied based on how we defined our cohort: it was not detectable when we expanded the cohort to all individuals with alcohol use disorders. CONCLUSION Home settings and the environment where individuals reside should be considered as significant psychosocial factors when clinicians design therapies and hospital discharge planning for patients with alcohol dependence.

Research paper thumbnail of HCV screening strategies targeting prisoners and immigrants from endemic countries: are they cost-effective?

Journal of Hepatology, 2020

Research paper thumbnail of Eradicating hepatitis C: Are novel screening strategies for people who inject drugs cost-effective?

International Journal of Drug Policy, 2020

Background: In developed countries, people who inject drugs (PWID) have a high prevalence of hepa... more Background: In developed countries, people who inject drugs (PWID) have a high prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV), yet they are often under-diagnosed. The World Health Organization has set 2030 as a target year for HCV elimination. To meet this target, improving screening in convenient community settings in order to reach infected undiagnosed individuals is a priority. This study assesses the cost-effectiveness of alternative novel strategies for diagnosing HCV infection in PWID. Methods: A cost-effectiveness analysis was undertaken to compare HCV screening at needle exchange centres, substance misuse services and at community pharmacies, with the standard practice of detection during general practitioners' consultations. A decision tree model was developed to assess the incremental cost per positive diagnosis, and a Markov model explored the net monetary benefit (NMB) and the cost per Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) gained over a lifetime horizon. Results: Needle exchange services provided a 7.45-fold increase in detecting positive individuals and an incremental cost of £12,336 per QALY gained against current practice (NMB £163,827), making this the most cost-effective strategy over a lifetime horizon. Screening at substance misuse services and pharmacies was cost-effective only at a £30,000/QALY threshold. With a 24% discount to HCV treatment list prices, all three screening strategies become cost-effective at £20,000/QALY. Conclusions: Targeting PWID populations with screening at needle exchange services is a highly cost-effective strategy for reaching undiagnosed HCV patients. When applying realistic discounts to list prices of drug treatments, all three strategies were highly cost-effective from a UK NHS perspective. All of these strategies have the potential to make a cost-effective contribution to the eradication of HCV by 2030. equivalent to the general population. However, most chronic HCV infections are asymptomatic and are therefore only diagnosed in the later, most severe stages of the disease, where cure is less likely. In 2016, the World Health Organization (WHO) set 2030 as a target for HCV elimination (World Health Orrganization, 2016), followed by various countries setting even more ambitious elimination deadlines, such as

Research paper thumbnail of PTU-033 Hepatitis c; pathways reaching the population other pathways can’t reach

Research paper thumbnail of Estimating the Burden of Alcohol on Ambulance Callouts through Development and Validation of an Algorithm Using Electronic Patient Records

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2021

Background: Alcohol consumption places a significant burden on emergency services, including ambu... more Background: Alcohol consumption places a significant burden on emergency services, including ambulance services, which often represent patients’ first, and sometimes only, contact with health services. We aimed to (1) improve the assessment of this burden on ambulance services in Scotland using a low-cost and easy to implement algorithm to screen free-text in electronic patient record forms (ePRFs), and (2) present estimates on the burden of alcohol on ambulance callouts in Scotland. Methods: Two paramedics manually reviewed 5416 ePRFs to make a professional judgement of whether they were alcohol-related, establishing a gold standard for assessing our algorithm performance. They also extracted all words or phrases relating to alcohol. An automatic algorithm to identify alcohol-related callouts using free-text in EPRs was developed using these extracts. Results: Our algorithm had a specificity of 0.941 and a sensitivity of 0.996 in detecting alcohol-related callouts. Applying the alg...

Research paper thumbnail of Lockdown and licensed premises: COVID ‐19 lessons for alcohol policy

Drug and Alcohol Review, 2021

Introduction. The COVID-19 pandemic necessitated unprecedented changes in alcohol availability, i... more Introduction. The COVID-19 pandemic necessitated unprecedented changes in alcohol availability, including closures, curfews and restrictions. We draw on new data from three UK studies exploring these issues to identify implications for premises licensing and wider policy. Methods. (i) Semi-structured interviews (n = 17) with licensing stakeholders in Scotland and England reporting how COVID-19 has reshaped local licensing and alcohol-related harms; (ii) semi-structured interviews (n = 15) with ambulance clinicians reporting experiences with alcohol during the pandemic; and (iii) descriptive and time series analyses of alcohol-related ambulance callouts in Scotland before and during the first UK lockdown (1 January 2019 to 30 June 2020). Results. COVID-19 restrictions (closures, curfews) affected on-trade premises only and licensing stakeholders highlighted the relaxation of some laws (e.g. on takeaway alcohol) and a rise in home drinking as having long-term risks for public health. Ambulance clinicians described a welcome break from pre-pandemic mass public intoxication and huge reductions in alcohol-related callouts at night-time. They also highlighted potential long-term risks of increased home drinking. The national lockdown was associated with an absolute fall of 2.14 percentage points [95% confidence interval (CI) À3.54, À0.74; P = 0.003] in alcohol-related callouts as a percentage of total callouts, followed by a daily increase of +0.03% (95% CI 0.010, 0.05; P = 0.004). Discussion and Conclusions. COVID-19 gave rise to both restrictions on premises and relaxations of licensing, with initial reductions in alcohol-related ambulance callouts, a rise in home drinking and diverse impacts on businesses. Policies which may protect on-trade businesses, while reshaping the night-time economy away from alcohol-related harms, could offer a 'win-win' for policymakers and health advocates.

Research paper thumbnail of Hospital discharge location and socioeconomic deprivation as risk factors for alcohol dependence relapses: A cohort study

Drug and Alcohol Dependence, 2021

BACKGROUND There is evidence that social support can improve the ability of an individual with al... more BACKGROUND There is evidence that social support can improve the ability of an individual with alcohol use disorder to manage relapses. However, the role of families and friends in this context is debated as family history and co-drinking are also risk factors for initiating alcohol drinking or maintaining addictive behaviours. AIM To quantitatively evaluate whether the hospital discharge location (in company or alone) after an alcohol dependence hospitalisation can influence the risk of relapses and whether this impact is modified by socioeconomic deprivation. METHODS A cohort of 1141 patients hospitalised for the first time for alcohol dependence in Scotland between 2010 and 2019 was derived from a routine healthcare database. Relapses were defined as recurrent alcohol-related hospitalisation. Survival analysis was undertaken to compare the risk of relapse for different discharge locations and socioeconomic deprivation groups. RESULTS On average, living in company of others was associated with a significant lower risk of relapses compared to living alone (HR: 0.84 95%CI: 0.71-0.99). This association differed across socioeconomic groups, being greater for those living in areas with the highest level of socioeconomic deprivation (HR: 0.76 95%CI: 0.57-1.01) and lower elsewhere. While this effect was not statistically significant (p = 0.056), its extent varied based on how we defined our cohort: it was not detectable when we expanded the cohort to all individuals with alcohol use disorders. CONCLUSION Home settings and the environment where individuals reside should be considered as significant psychosocial factors when clinicians design therapies and hospital discharge planning for patients with alcohol dependence.

Research paper thumbnail of HCV screening strategies targeting prisoners and immigrants from endemic countries: are they cost-effective?

Journal of Hepatology, 2020

Research paper thumbnail of Eradicating hepatitis C: Are novel screening strategies for people who inject drugs cost-effective?

International Journal of Drug Policy, 2020

Background: In developed countries, people who inject drugs (PWID) have a high prevalence of hepa... more Background: In developed countries, people who inject drugs (PWID) have a high prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV), yet they are often under-diagnosed. The World Health Organization has set 2030 as a target year for HCV elimination. To meet this target, improving screening in convenient community settings in order to reach infected undiagnosed individuals is a priority. This study assesses the cost-effectiveness of alternative novel strategies for diagnosing HCV infection in PWID. Methods: A cost-effectiveness analysis was undertaken to compare HCV screening at needle exchange centres, substance misuse services and at community pharmacies, with the standard practice of detection during general practitioners' consultations. A decision tree model was developed to assess the incremental cost per positive diagnosis, and a Markov model explored the net monetary benefit (NMB) and the cost per Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) gained over a lifetime horizon. Results: Needle exchange services provided a 7.45-fold increase in detecting positive individuals and an incremental cost of £12,336 per QALY gained against current practice (NMB £163,827), making this the most cost-effective strategy over a lifetime horizon. Screening at substance misuse services and pharmacies was cost-effective only at a £30,000/QALY threshold. With a 24% discount to HCV treatment list prices, all three screening strategies become cost-effective at £20,000/QALY. Conclusions: Targeting PWID populations with screening at needle exchange services is a highly cost-effective strategy for reaching undiagnosed HCV patients. When applying realistic discounts to list prices of drug treatments, all three strategies were highly cost-effective from a UK NHS perspective. All of these strategies have the potential to make a cost-effective contribution to the eradication of HCV by 2030. equivalent to the general population. However, most chronic HCV infections are asymptomatic and are therefore only diagnosed in the later, most severe stages of the disease, where cure is less likely. In 2016, the World Health Organization (WHO) set 2030 as a target for HCV elimination (World Health Orrganization, 2016), followed by various countries setting even more ambitious elimination deadlines, such as

Research paper thumbnail of PTU-033 Hepatitis c; pathways reaching the population other pathways can’t reach

Research paper thumbnail of Estimating the Burden of Alcohol on Ambulance Callouts through Development and Validation of an Algorithm Using Electronic Patient Records

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2021

Background: Alcohol consumption places a significant burden on emergency services, including ambu... more Background: Alcohol consumption places a significant burden on emergency services, including ambulance services, which often represent patients’ first, and sometimes only, contact with health services. We aimed to (1) improve the assessment of this burden on ambulance services in Scotland using a low-cost and easy to implement algorithm to screen free-text in electronic patient record forms (ePRFs), and (2) present estimates on the burden of alcohol on ambulance callouts in Scotland. Methods: Two paramedics manually reviewed 5416 ePRFs to make a professional judgement of whether they were alcohol-related, establishing a gold standard for assessing our algorithm performance. They also extracted all words or phrases relating to alcohol. An automatic algorithm to identify alcohol-related callouts using free-text in EPRs was developed using these extracts. Results: Our algorithm had a specificity of 0.941 and a sensitivity of 0.996 in detecting alcohol-related callouts. Applying the alg...