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Papers by omar bello

Research paper thumbnail of Planning for disaster risk reduction within the framework of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development

Documentos de Proyectos, Feb 5, 2021

A disaster can cause countries to lose the economic and social ground that they have worked for d... more A disaster can cause countries to lose the economic and social ground that they have worked for decades to gain and can have even more severe impacts on the most vulnerable groups in their populations. The extent of its impacts will depend on the countries’ ability to identify and address their vulnerabilities. This study, which is intended for use by policymakers, in particular, explores the ways in which development planning can lay the foundation for a comprehensive transition from disaster management to disaster risk management. It advocates the adoption of system-based approaches, in keeping with those outlined in global development frameworks, and the attainment of a fuller understanding of the nature of disaster risk that will pave the way for new lines of research and for new methodologies and opportunities for planning before, during and after a disaster.Introduction .-- I. Disasters caused by natural phenomena .-- II. Sustainable development planning and disaster risk management .-- III. Information systems, statistics and indicators for disaster risk management .-- IV. Conclusions

Research paper thumbnail of Planificación para la reducción del riesgo de desastres en el marco de la Agenda 2030 para el Desarrollo Sostenible

Documentos de Proyectos, Sep 11, 2020

Un desastre puede suponer retrocesos en los avances económicos y sociales logrados por los países... more Un desastre puede suponer retrocesos en los avances económicos y sociales logrados por los países a lo largo de las décadas, y sus efectos pueden verse exacerbados en el caso de los grupos más vulnerables. La gravedad del impacto dependerá de la capacidad de los países para detectar y superar sus vulnerabilidades. Este documento, especialmente dirigido a los encargados de la formulación de políticas, pone de manifiesto cómo, a través de la planificación para el desarrollo, pueden sentarse las bases para un abordaje integral, transitando de la gestión de los desastres a la gestión del riesgo de desastres. Para ello, se propone adoptar enfoques basados en sistemas, en concordancia con lo que establecen los marcos mundiales de desarrollo, así como mejorar la comprensión de la naturaleza de los riesgos mediante el impulso de nuevas líneas de investigación, metodologías y oportunidades para la planificación antes, durante y después de un desastre.Introducción .-- I. Desastres causados por fenómenos naturales .-- II. Planificación para el desarrollo sostenible y gestión del riesgo de desastres .-- III. Sistemas de información, estadísticas e indicadores para la gestión del riesgo de desastres .-- IV. Conclusiones

Research paper thumbnail of Evidencia estadística de superciclos en las series de precios de los metales y el petróleo, 1900-2015

La bonanza de los recursos naturales para el desarrollo, 2019

En este capitulo se evalua la evidencia estadistica de componentes ciclicos de largo plazo en las... more En este capitulo se evalua la evidencia estadistica de componentes ciclicos de largo plazo en las series historicas del precio real de los metales y el petroleo crudo. Se encuentran pruebas de entre tres y cuatro superciclos en las series anuales de 1900-2015, con una duracion media respectiva de 31,6 y 16 anos en las fases de auge y caidas de los precios. El ultimo superciclo se inicio alrededor del ano 2000, tuvo una duracion media de 15 anos y supera a los anteriores en la magnitud que alcanzo, con niveles de precio que no se veian desde la decada de 1970. Sin embargo, este ultimo periodo de auge ya concluyo.

Research paper thumbnail of Proposal for a revitalized Caribbean Development and Cooperation Committee - Regional Coordinating Mechanism for Sustainable Development (CDCC-RCM): Repositioning CDCC-RCM as the mechanism for sustainable development in Caribbean small island developing States (SIDS)

Research paper thumbnail of Assessment of the Effects and Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic in The Bahamas

This DALA Assessment report collects and integrates relevant data for the authorities of the gove... more This DALA Assessment report collects and integrates relevant data for the authorities of the government of the Bahamas, on the effects on the different social, productive, services and infrastructure sectors, which have been caused in the country for the period 2020 -2023 due to the impact generated by the Covid-19 pandemic in the Bahamas. The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the world's economic order and global public health. Social distancing measures to curb the spread of the virus created significant challenges for global economic activity. Sectors such as tourism which depend on the movement of people virtually shut down. The economy of The Bahamas is heavily reliant on tourism, which accounts for approximately 50% of the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The pandemic also highlighted the country's socio-economic vulnerability as businesses and citizens felt the crunch These impacts highlighted the need for comprehensive Disaster Risk Management (DRM) and Heal...

Research paper thumbnail of 4 The Incidence of Labor Market Reforms on Employment in the Venezuelan Manufacturing Sector, 1995–2001

Research paper thumbnail of The Incidence of Labor Market Reforms on Employment in the Venezuelan Manufacturing Sector, 1995–2001

Research paper thumbnail of La elasticidad PIB del gasto social en países seleccionados en América Latina

En este documento se caracteriza la relacion entre el gasto social, sus clasificaciones funcional... more En este documento se caracteriza la relacion entre el gasto social, sus clasificaciones funcionales y el PIB en la region en el periodo1980-2008 a traves de la estimacion de las elasticidades PIB de corto y de largo plazo del gasto social y sus componentes para diez paisesseleccionados de America Latina. Desde el punto de vista del corto plazo, el principal resultado es que las erogaciones en educacion ysalud fueron las clasificaciones funcionales que resultaron prociclicas para mas paises. Tomado en su conjunto, esto es evidencia de queel gasto social en la region no tiende a cumplir su papel compensatorio. Con respecto al largo plazo, los resultados obtenidos senalanque las prioridades de los gobiernos regionales en la asignacion del gasto social estan orientadas a educacion, salud y seguridad social.Igualmente, los resultados no rechazan la Hipotesis de la Expansion del Gasto Publico.

Research paper thumbnail of Mainstreaming disaster risk management strategies in development instruments (II): policy briefs for Barbados, Guyana, Saint Lucia, Suriname, and Trinidad and Tobago

This set of policy briefs has the objective of profiling disaster risk management (DRM) policies ... more This set of policy briefs has the objective of profiling disaster risk management (DRM) policies in five selected member States of the Caribbean Development and Cooperation Committee: Barbados, Guyana, Saint Lucia, Suriname, and Trinidad and Tobago. The present publication is the second that ECLAC has released on the mainstreaming of DRM strategies on this topic area. In 2017, a similar document was published for the following countries: The Bahamas, Belize, Dominican Republic, Haiti and Jamaica. It also aims at analysing these policies and their interactions with broader development issues and instruments such as national development plans and climate change adaptation strategies.

Research paper thumbnail of Mainstreaming disaster risk management strategies in development instruments: Policy briefs for selected member countries of the Caribbean Development and Cooperation Committee

This policy brief has the objective of profiling disaster risk management policies in five select... more This policy brief has the objective of profiling disaster risk management policies in five selected member states of the Caribbean Development and Cooperation Committee: The Bahamas, Belize, The Dominican Republic, Haiti and Jamaica, and analyze their interactions with broader development issues and instruments, such as national development plans and climate change adaptation strategies. To this end, firstly, it presents the five pillars for Disaster Risk Managenent (DRM), namely risk identification, risk reduction, preparedness, financial protection, and resilient recovery, as well as their applications to disaster assessments.1 Secondly, it describes the integration of DRM into development policies. The structure of the analysis will allow countries to identify strengths and weaknesses of the DRM policies and how they interact with other planning and development instruments. Finally, it presents policy recommendations to strengthen the role of DRM and to improve the use of resourc...

Research paper thumbnail of Indicadores adelantados para América Latina

En el presente trabajo se construyen indicadores compuestos que adelantan los puntos de giro de l... more En el presente trabajo se construyen indicadores compuestos que adelantan los puntos de giro de la actividad economica para Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico y Peru a partir de datos mensuales; en terminos generales, se emplea la metodologia desarrollada por el NBER. En cada uno de ellos, ademas de la serie del indicador lider, se calculo una probabilidad secuencial de cambio de fase (de una expansion a una contraccion y viceversa). Con la informacion disponible hasta septiembre de 2009, cada uno de los indicadores lideres senala que la recuperacion economica es inminente, dado que la probabilidad de cambio de fase ha superado, en cada caso y desde hace ya varios meses, el umbral de 80%. Con esta senal, se puede esperar que la actividad en estas economias repunte durante el segundo semestre de 2009. Este resultado podria extenderse a America Latina por medio de una agregacion de los seis indicadores regionales, al ser estos paises responsables de aproximadamente el 85% del ...

Research paper thumbnail of The use of technology and innovative approaches in disaster and risk management: a characterization of Caribbean countries’ experiences

The application of technologies, research, development, promotion of innovative approaches and lo... more The application of technologies, research, development, promotion of innovative approaches and local knowledge to confront complex issues posed by hazards are important components of managing disaster risks and guiding informed decision-making. Hence commitments to support and enhance access to technologies and to foster innovative approaches to risk reduction, preparedness and resilient recovery are essential requirements for the management of current and future disasters in the Caribbean subregion. Considering the importance of Disaster and Risk Management (DRM), the aim of this study is to assess and discuss the application of technologies and innovative approaches related to DRM in the subregion. The study will consider the five pillars of DRM: risk identification, risk reduction, preparedness, financial protection and resilient recovery. It will examine the types of available and applied technologies, discuss selected innovative approaches, evaluate and recommend strategies to ...

Research paper thumbnail of Towards a demand model for maritime passenger transportation in the Caribbean: a regional study of passenger ferry services

In this paper, the main factors that influence the demand for maritime passenger transportation i... more In this paper, the main factors that influence the demand for maritime passenger transportation in the Caribbean were studied. While maritime studies in the Caribbean have focused on infrastructural and operational systems for intensifying trade and movement of goods, there is little information on the movement of persons within the region and its potential to encourage further integration and sustainable development. Data to inform studies and policies in this area are particularly difficult to source. For this study, an unbalanced data set for the 2000-2014 period in 15 destinations with a focus on departing ferry passengers was compiled. Further a demand equation for maritime passenger transportation in the Caribbean using panel data methods was estimated. The results showed that this demand is related to the real fare of the service, international economic activity and the number of passengers arriving in the country by air.

Research paper thumbnail of Assessment of the Effects and Impacts caused by Hurricane Irma, The Bahamas 2017

Research paper thumbnail of Disasters, economic growth and fiscal response in the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean, 1972-2010: Omar D. Bello

CEPAL Review, 2017

The aim of this study is to estimate the impact of geological and climate-related disasters on th... more The aim of this study is to estimate the impact of geological and climate-related disasters on the per capita growth rates of gross domestic product (GDP) and fiscal expenditure in Latin American and Caribbean countries. The results show that the effects vary by type of disaster and by subregion. In the Caribbean countries, the per capita GDP growth rate has typically responded negatively to climate disasters, whereas the response to a geological disaster has generally not been statistically significant. In Central American countries, the response of the per capita GDP growth rate was found to be negative in the first year and positive in the third year in the case of climate disasters, but positive in the second and third years for disasters of geological origin.

Research paper thumbnail of Assessment of the Effects and Impacts of Hurricane Dorian in the Bahamas

The Bahamas 9 MACROECONOMIC SECTOR Economic impact Evolution of the economy before Hurricane Matt... more The Bahamas 9 MACROECONOMIC SECTOR Economic impact Evolution of the economy before Hurricane Matthew Economic Activity Fiscal developments Monetary developments Balance of payments Impact of Hurricane Matthew on the macro-economy Impact on GDP and Prices Fiscal Impact of Hurricane Matthew The Impact of the balance of payments PART II: RECOMMENDATIONS

Research paper thumbnail of Assessment of the Effects and Impacts of Hurricane Matthew, The Bahamas

The Bahamas 9 MACROECONOMIC SECTOR Economic impact Evolution of the economy before Hurricane Matt... more The Bahamas 9 MACROECONOMIC SECTOR Economic impact Evolution of the economy before Hurricane Matthew Economic Activity Fiscal developments Monetary developments Balance of payments Impact of Hurricane Matthew on the macro-economy Impact on GDP and Prices Fiscal Impact of Hurricane Matthew The Impact of the balance of payments PART II: RECOMMENDATIONS

Research paper thumbnail of Desastres, crecimiento económico y respuesta fiscal en los países de América Latina y el Caribe, 1972-2010

Revista de la CEPAL, 2017

Research paper thumbnail of Variabilidad y persistencia de los precios de los productos básicos en América Latina

Revista de la CEPAL, 2011

Research paper thumbnail of Latin America: Variability and persistence in commodity prices

CEPAL Review, 2011

Thi s article describes variability and persistence in the real prices of Latin America's main ex... more Thi s article describes variability and persistence in the real prices of Latin America's main export commodities. The results of this research show that real price index series for a large majority of commodities display high persistence to shocks; and, as they repeatedly suffer both positive and negative shocks, all commodities display multiple cycles. The rising price phase that began in the early 2000s differed from previous upswings in terms of its duration, nature and the number of products involved. As this is a just one cycle, however, it is impossible to claim that a definitive change has occurred in the cyclical pattern of commodity price series.

Research paper thumbnail of Planning for disaster risk reduction within the framework of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development

Documentos de Proyectos, Feb 5, 2021

A disaster can cause countries to lose the economic and social ground that they have worked for d... more A disaster can cause countries to lose the economic and social ground that they have worked for decades to gain and can have even more severe impacts on the most vulnerable groups in their populations. The extent of its impacts will depend on the countries’ ability to identify and address their vulnerabilities. This study, which is intended for use by policymakers, in particular, explores the ways in which development planning can lay the foundation for a comprehensive transition from disaster management to disaster risk management. It advocates the adoption of system-based approaches, in keeping with those outlined in global development frameworks, and the attainment of a fuller understanding of the nature of disaster risk that will pave the way for new lines of research and for new methodologies and opportunities for planning before, during and after a disaster.Introduction .-- I. Disasters caused by natural phenomena .-- II. Sustainable development planning and disaster risk management .-- III. Information systems, statistics and indicators for disaster risk management .-- IV. Conclusions

Research paper thumbnail of Planificación para la reducción del riesgo de desastres en el marco de la Agenda 2030 para el Desarrollo Sostenible

Documentos de Proyectos, Sep 11, 2020

Un desastre puede suponer retrocesos en los avances económicos y sociales logrados por los países... more Un desastre puede suponer retrocesos en los avances económicos y sociales logrados por los países a lo largo de las décadas, y sus efectos pueden verse exacerbados en el caso de los grupos más vulnerables. La gravedad del impacto dependerá de la capacidad de los países para detectar y superar sus vulnerabilidades. Este documento, especialmente dirigido a los encargados de la formulación de políticas, pone de manifiesto cómo, a través de la planificación para el desarrollo, pueden sentarse las bases para un abordaje integral, transitando de la gestión de los desastres a la gestión del riesgo de desastres. Para ello, se propone adoptar enfoques basados en sistemas, en concordancia con lo que establecen los marcos mundiales de desarrollo, así como mejorar la comprensión de la naturaleza de los riesgos mediante el impulso de nuevas líneas de investigación, metodologías y oportunidades para la planificación antes, durante y después de un desastre.Introducción .-- I. Desastres causados por fenómenos naturales .-- II. Planificación para el desarrollo sostenible y gestión del riesgo de desastres .-- III. Sistemas de información, estadísticas e indicadores para la gestión del riesgo de desastres .-- IV. Conclusiones

Research paper thumbnail of Evidencia estadística de superciclos en las series de precios de los metales y el petróleo, 1900-2015

La bonanza de los recursos naturales para el desarrollo, 2019

En este capitulo se evalua la evidencia estadistica de componentes ciclicos de largo plazo en las... more En este capitulo se evalua la evidencia estadistica de componentes ciclicos de largo plazo en las series historicas del precio real de los metales y el petroleo crudo. Se encuentran pruebas de entre tres y cuatro superciclos en las series anuales de 1900-2015, con una duracion media respectiva de 31,6 y 16 anos en las fases de auge y caidas de los precios. El ultimo superciclo se inicio alrededor del ano 2000, tuvo una duracion media de 15 anos y supera a los anteriores en la magnitud que alcanzo, con niveles de precio que no se veian desde la decada de 1970. Sin embargo, este ultimo periodo de auge ya concluyo.

Research paper thumbnail of Proposal for a revitalized Caribbean Development and Cooperation Committee - Regional Coordinating Mechanism for Sustainable Development (CDCC-RCM): Repositioning CDCC-RCM as the mechanism for sustainable development in Caribbean small island developing States (SIDS)

Research paper thumbnail of Assessment of the Effects and Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic in The Bahamas

This DALA Assessment report collects and integrates relevant data for the authorities of the gove... more This DALA Assessment report collects and integrates relevant data for the authorities of the government of the Bahamas, on the effects on the different social, productive, services and infrastructure sectors, which have been caused in the country for the period 2020 -2023 due to the impact generated by the Covid-19 pandemic in the Bahamas. The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the world's economic order and global public health. Social distancing measures to curb the spread of the virus created significant challenges for global economic activity. Sectors such as tourism which depend on the movement of people virtually shut down. The economy of The Bahamas is heavily reliant on tourism, which accounts for approximately 50% of the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The pandemic also highlighted the country's socio-economic vulnerability as businesses and citizens felt the crunch These impacts highlighted the need for comprehensive Disaster Risk Management (DRM) and Heal...

Research paper thumbnail of 4 The Incidence of Labor Market Reforms on Employment in the Venezuelan Manufacturing Sector, 1995–2001

Research paper thumbnail of The Incidence of Labor Market Reforms on Employment in the Venezuelan Manufacturing Sector, 1995–2001

Research paper thumbnail of La elasticidad PIB del gasto social en países seleccionados en América Latina

En este documento se caracteriza la relacion entre el gasto social, sus clasificaciones funcional... more En este documento se caracteriza la relacion entre el gasto social, sus clasificaciones funcionales y el PIB en la region en el periodo1980-2008 a traves de la estimacion de las elasticidades PIB de corto y de largo plazo del gasto social y sus componentes para diez paisesseleccionados de America Latina. Desde el punto de vista del corto plazo, el principal resultado es que las erogaciones en educacion ysalud fueron las clasificaciones funcionales que resultaron prociclicas para mas paises. Tomado en su conjunto, esto es evidencia de queel gasto social en la region no tiende a cumplir su papel compensatorio. Con respecto al largo plazo, los resultados obtenidos senalanque las prioridades de los gobiernos regionales en la asignacion del gasto social estan orientadas a educacion, salud y seguridad social.Igualmente, los resultados no rechazan la Hipotesis de la Expansion del Gasto Publico.

Research paper thumbnail of Mainstreaming disaster risk management strategies in development instruments (II): policy briefs for Barbados, Guyana, Saint Lucia, Suriname, and Trinidad and Tobago

This set of policy briefs has the objective of profiling disaster risk management (DRM) policies ... more This set of policy briefs has the objective of profiling disaster risk management (DRM) policies in five selected member States of the Caribbean Development and Cooperation Committee: Barbados, Guyana, Saint Lucia, Suriname, and Trinidad and Tobago. The present publication is the second that ECLAC has released on the mainstreaming of DRM strategies on this topic area. In 2017, a similar document was published for the following countries: The Bahamas, Belize, Dominican Republic, Haiti and Jamaica. It also aims at analysing these policies and their interactions with broader development issues and instruments such as national development plans and climate change adaptation strategies.

Research paper thumbnail of Mainstreaming disaster risk management strategies in development instruments: Policy briefs for selected member countries of the Caribbean Development and Cooperation Committee

This policy brief has the objective of profiling disaster risk management policies in five select... more This policy brief has the objective of profiling disaster risk management policies in five selected member states of the Caribbean Development and Cooperation Committee: The Bahamas, Belize, The Dominican Republic, Haiti and Jamaica, and analyze their interactions with broader development issues and instruments, such as national development plans and climate change adaptation strategies. To this end, firstly, it presents the five pillars for Disaster Risk Managenent (DRM), namely risk identification, risk reduction, preparedness, financial protection, and resilient recovery, as well as their applications to disaster assessments.1 Secondly, it describes the integration of DRM into development policies. The structure of the analysis will allow countries to identify strengths and weaknesses of the DRM policies and how they interact with other planning and development instruments. Finally, it presents policy recommendations to strengthen the role of DRM and to improve the use of resourc...

Research paper thumbnail of Indicadores adelantados para América Latina

En el presente trabajo se construyen indicadores compuestos que adelantan los puntos de giro de l... more En el presente trabajo se construyen indicadores compuestos que adelantan los puntos de giro de la actividad economica para Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico y Peru a partir de datos mensuales; en terminos generales, se emplea la metodologia desarrollada por el NBER. En cada uno de ellos, ademas de la serie del indicador lider, se calculo una probabilidad secuencial de cambio de fase (de una expansion a una contraccion y viceversa). Con la informacion disponible hasta septiembre de 2009, cada uno de los indicadores lideres senala que la recuperacion economica es inminente, dado que la probabilidad de cambio de fase ha superado, en cada caso y desde hace ya varios meses, el umbral de 80%. Con esta senal, se puede esperar que la actividad en estas economias repunte durante el segundo semestre de 2009. Este resultado podria extenderse a America Latina por medio de una agregacion de los seis indicadores regionales, al ser estos paises responsables de aproximadamente el 85% del ...

Research paper thumbnail of The use of technology and innovative approaches in disaster and risk management: a characterization of Caribbean countries’ experiences

The application of technologies, research, development, promotion of innovative approaches and lo... more The application of technologies, research, development, promotion of innovative approaches and local knowledge to confront complex issues posed by hazards are important components of managing disaster risks and guiding informed decision-making. Hence commitments to support and enhance access to technologies and to foster innovative approaches to risk reduction, preparedness and resilient recovery are essential requirements for the management of current and future disasters in the Caribbean subregion. Considering the importance of Disaster and Risk Management (DRM), the aim of this study is to assess and discuss the application of technologies and innovative approaches related to DRM in the subregion. The study will consider the five pillars of DRM: risk identification, risk reduction, preparedness, financial protection and resilient recovery. It will examine the types of available and applied technologies, discuss selected innovative approaches, evaluate and recommend strategies to ...

Research paper thumbnail of Towards a demand model for maritime passenger transportation in the Caribbean: a regional study of passenger ferry services

In this paper, the main factors that influence the demand for maritime passenger transportation i... more In this paper, the main factors that influence the demand for maritime passenger transportation in the Caribbean were studied. While maritime studies in the Caribbean have focused on infrastructural and operational systems for intensifying trade and movement of goods, there is little information on the movement of persons within the region and its potential to encourage further integration and sustainable development. Data to inform studies and policies in this area are particularly difficult to source. For this study, an unbalanced data set for the 2000-2014 period in 15 destinations with a focus on departing ferry passengers was compiled. Further a demand equation for maritime passenger transportation in the Caribbean using panel data methods was estimated. The results showed that this demand is related to the real fare of the service, international economic activity and the number of passengers arriving in the country by air.

Research paper thumbnail of Assessment of the Effects and Impacts caused by Hurricane Irma, The Bahamas 2017

Research paper thumbnail of Disasters, economic growth and fiscal response in the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean, 1972-2010: Omar D. Bello

CEPAL Review, 2017

The aim of this study is to estimate the impact of geological and climate-related disasters on th... more The aim of this study is to estimate the impact of geological and climate-related disasters on the per capita growth rates of gross domestic product (GDP) and fiscal expenditure in Latin American and Caribbean countries. The results show that the effects vary by type of disaster and by subregion. In the Caribbean countries, the per capita GDP growth rate has typically responded negatively to climate disasters, whereas the response to a geological disaster has generally not been statistically significant. In Central American countries, the response of the per capita GDP growth rate was found to be negative in the first year and positive in the third year in the case of climate disasters, but positive in the second and third years for disasters of geological origin.

Research paper thumbnail of Assessment of the Effects and Impacts of Hurricane Dorian in the Bahamas

The Bahamas 9 MACROECONOMIC SECTOR Economic impact Evolution of the economy before Hurricane Matt... more The Bahamas 9 MACROECONOMIC SECTOR Economic impact Evolution of the economy before Hurricane Matthew Economic Activity Fiscal developments Monetary developments Balance of payments Impact of Hurricane Matthew on the macro-economy Impact on GDP and Prices Fiscal Impact of Hurricane Matthew The Impact of the balance of payments PART II: RECOMMENDATIONS

Research paper thumbnail of Assessment of the Effects and Impacts of Hurricane Matthew, The Bahamas

The Bahamas 9 MACROECONOMIC SECTOR Economic impact Evolution of the economy before Hurricane Matt... more The Bahamas 9 MACROECONOMIC SECTOR Economic impact Evolution of the economy before Hurricane Matthew Economic Activity Fiscal developments Monetary developments Balance of payments Impact of Hurricane Matthew on the macro-economy Impact on GDP and Prices Fiscal Impact of Hurricane Matthew The Impact of the balance of payments PART II: RECOMMENDATIONS

Research paper thumbnail of Desastres, crecimiento económico y respuesta fiscal en los países de América Latina y el Caribe, 1972-2010

Revista de la CEPAL, 2017

Research paper thumbnail of Variabilidad y persistencia de los precios de los productos básicos en América Latina

Revista de la CEPAL, 2011

Research paper thumbnail of Latin America: Variability and persistence in commodity prices

CEPAL Review, 2011

Thi s article describes variability and persistence in the real prices of Latin America's main ex... more Thi s article describes variability and persistence in the real prices of Latin America's main export commodities. The results of this research show that real price index series for a large majority of commodities display high persistence to shocks; and, as they repeatedly suffer both positive and negative shocks, all commodities display multiple cycles. The rising price phase that began in the early 2000s differed from previous upswings in terms of its duration, nature and the number of products involved. As this is a just one cycle, however, it is impossible to claim that a definitive change has occurred in the cyclical pattern of commodity price series.