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Papers by massimo ortolani

GEOECONOMICS AND The CONFLICT SPILLOVER INDEX, 2024

The article summarizes the work of some IMF economists who have recently devised and estimated th... more The article summarizes the work of some IMF economists who have recently devised and estimated the Conflict Spill Over Index. A normalized statistical indicator of macroeconomic spillover effects in countries close to those affected by armed conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. These spillover effects, although mitigated by geographical distance, have a significant impact on GDP, inflation, imports, as well as generating social impacts related to the migration factor. But the methodology used is certainly also useful for refining the assessment of the country-risk, in view of prospective exports or investments in this area. Moreover, in Italy it could also be considered for the development of the government's Mattei Plan, of financial-economic assistance to African countries.

La reale capacità antagonistica del BRICS, 2023

The article investigates the institutional, geopolitical and geoeconomic factors that can measure... more The article investigates the institutional, geopolitical and geoeconomic factors that can measure the degree of assertiveness of the enlarged BRICS towards the industrialized West.

sicurezza economica e geoeconomia, 2023

The article begins by dealing with the well-known confusion often noted between the proper conten... more The article begins by dealing with the well-known confusion often noted between the proper content of geopolitics and that of geoeconomics. It then first identifies Economic Statecraft as the core of geoeconomic activities, as well as recent academic studies of New Political Economy and Behavioural Economics. But the fall of ideologies after the Cold War, and the emergence of instances of a geoeconomic nature, have currently created an entanglement with geopolitics. With the consequence that two competing geopolitical and geoeconomic blocs, such as that between the U.S. and China, are now replaced by a jagged geostrategic landscape of groups of states, and states, opportunistically pragmatic in nurturing alliances with China for trade aspects, and with the U.S. for national security

The article dwells on the identification of the vital interests and values to be considered funda... more The article dwells on the identification of the vital interests and values to be considered fundamental components of a country's national interest (NI). Focus is in particular shed on the ways, both political and institutional, by which in Italy various types of indicators serve to identify the contents of a policy program of enhancement of NI, necessarily changing over time in relation to exogenous constraints on economic policy, represented by international tensions of a geopolitical and geoeconomic nature. While the partial shift of national sovereignty to the EU, as a member state of the Union, is both a constraint and an opportunity for NI enhancement policies in Italy. Moreover the analysis is targeted to explain how also the monetary policy, managed by the European Central Bank, can potentially create complex interdependencies with Italian economic policies for the protection of economic and social security, particularly in times of inflation

This article is aimed at pointing out the difficulties to attract and retain foreign investors in... more This article is aimed at pointing out the difficulties to attract and retain foreign investors into Italy

Come noto le molteplici forme di guerra economica attualmente esplicate nelle svariate declinazio... more Come noto le molteplici forme di guerra economica attualmente esplicate nelle svariate declinazioni operative dell'economic warfare, sono andate nel tempo caratterizzandosi per il sempre più frequente ricorso all'elemento giurdico. Questo variegato insieme di fattori generatori di eventi "non cinetici"tra paesi o gruppi di Paesi -descrive al meglio le caratteristiche del conflitto geoeconomico attuale che, nella misura in cui riesce a surrogare effetti assimilabili a quelli di un conflitto bellicosta divenendo una componente strutturale del sistema economico-finanziario contemporaneo, come lucidamente messo in luce da G. della Torre (op cit.1)

It's a synthetic analysis of most relevant issues of the difficult relationship that characteri... more It's a synthetic analysis of most relevant issues of the difficult relationship that characterizes the U.S. policy towards N. Korea directly, and China indirectly

The paper discusses the main fields of engagement of economic intelligence in the near future

Teaching Documents by massimo ortolani

The article provides a wide-ranging description of target and operative modalities of Economic In... more The article provides a wide-ranging description of target and operative modalities of Economic Intelligence (EI) in support of a nation's economic security. In line with the focus addressed on the political and institutional peculiarities of Italy, the author proposes the creation-within the Italian intelligence services-of a newly operative section specially dedicated IE. Economic intelligence analyses are currently an indispensable tool to the advisory support baggage of policy makers, requested to enhance the National Interest, but currently concerned by the intricacies of international relations, geoeconomics, optimal choices for the tuning of economic sanctions and financial warfare. As well as to proactively detect predatory acquisitions, or exerting efficient counterintelligence actions.

GEOECONOMICS AND The CONFLICT SPILLOVER INDEX, 2024

The article summarizes the work of some IMF economists who have recently devised and estimated th... more The article summarizes the work of some IMF economists who have recently devised and estimated the Conflict Spill Over Index. A normalized statistical indicator of macroeconomic spillover effects in countries close to those affected by armed conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. These spillover effects, although mitigated by geographical distance, have a significant impact on GDP, inflation, imports, as well as generating social impacts related to the migration factor. But the methodology used is certainly also useful for refining the assessment of the country-risk, in view of prospective exports or investments in this area. Moreover, in Italy it could also be considered for the development of the government's Mattei Plan, of financial-economic assistance to African countries.

La reale capacità antagonistica del BRICS, 2023

The article investigates the institutional, geopolitical and geoeconomic factors that can measure... more The article investigates the institutional, geopolitical and geoeconomic factors that can measure the degree of assertiveness of the enlarged BRICS towards the industrialized West.

sicurezza economica e geoeconomia, 2023

The article begins by dealing with the well-known confusion often noted between the proper conten... more The article begins by dealing with the well-known confusion often noted between the proper content of geopolitics and that of geoeconomics. It then first identifies Economic Statecraft as the core of geoeconomic activities, as well as recent academic studies of New Political Economy and Behavioural Economics. But the fall of ideologies after the Cold War, and the emergence of instances of a geoeconomic nature, have currently created an entanglement with geopolitics. With the consequence that two competing geopolitical and geoeconomic blocs, such as that between the U.S. and China, are now replaced by a jagged geostrategic landscape of groups of states, and states, opportunistically pragmatic in nurturing alliances with China for trade aspects, and with the U.S. for national security

The article dwells on the identification of the vital interests and values to be considered funda... more The article dwells on the identification of the vital interests and values to be considered fundamental components of a country's national interest (NI). Focus is in particular shed on the ways, both political and institutional, by which in Italy various types of indicators serve to identify the contents of a policy program of enhancement of NI, necessarily changing over time in relation to exogenous constraints on economic policy, represented by international tensions of a geopolitical and geoeconomic nature. While the partial shift of national sovereignty to the EU, as a member state of the Union, is both a constraint and an opportunity for NI enhancement policies in Italy. Moreover the analysis is targeted to explain how also the monetary policy, managed by the European Central Bank, can potentially create complex interdependencies with Italian economic policies for the protection of economic and social security, particularly in times of inflation

This article is aimed at pointing out the difficulties to attract and retain foreign investors in... more This article is aimed at pointing out the difficulties to attract and retain foreign investors into Italy

Come noto le molteplici forme di guerra economica attualmente esplicate nelle svariate declinazio... more Come noto le molteplici forme di guerra economica attualmente esplicate nelle svariate declinazioni operative dell'economic warfare, sono andate nel tempo caratterizzandosi per il sempre più frequente ricorso all'elemento giurdico. Questo variegato insieme di fattori generatori di eventi "non cinetici"tra paesi o gruppi di Paesi -descrive al meglio le caratteristiche del conflitto geoeconomico attuale che, nella misura in cui riesce a surrogare effetti assimilabili a quelli di un conflitto bellicosta divenendo una componente strutturale del sistema economico-finanziario contemporaneo, come lucidamente messo in luce da G. della Torre (op cit.1)

It's a synthetic analysis of most relevant issues of the difficult relationship that characteri... more It's a synthetic analysis of most relevant issues of the difficult relationship that characterizes the U.S. policy towards N. Korea directly, and China indirectly

The paper discusses the main fields of engagement of economic intelligence in the near future

The article provides a wide-ranging description of target and operative modalities of Economic In... more The article provides a wide-ranging description of target and operative modalities of Economic Intelligence (EI) in support of a nation's economic security. In line with the focus addressed on the political and institutional peculiarities of Italy, the author proposes the creation-within the Italian intelligence services-of a newly operative section specially dedicated IE. Economic intelligence analyses are currently an indispensable tool to the advisory support baggage of policy makers, requested to enhance the National Interest, but currently concerned by the intricacies of international relations, geoeconomics, optimal choices for the tuning of economic sanctions and financial warfare. As well as to proactively detect predatory acquisitions, or exerting efficient counterintelligence actions.