winifred scott - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by winifred scott

ABSTRACT Professional analysts' estimates of earnings per share (EPS) provide a rare sour... more ABSTRACT Professional analysts' estimates of earnings per share (EPS) provide a rare source of forward-looking information regarding the financial performance of publicly traded firms. Although numerous studies in the economics, finance, and accounting literatures have examined the properties of these forecasts and provided general insight into their performance, no known research explicitly examines the performance of analysts' EPS estimates for publicly traded food companies. This issue is particularly relevant given the influence that publicly traded agribusiness companies maintain in the agro-food supply chain (Vickner, 2002). Focusing on quarterly consensus estimates of EPS for 11 of the largest publicly traded food companies based on capitalization, the authors examine the point accuracy of these estimates through the introduction of the mean absolute scaled error measure, their performance over time, as well as their optimal forecast properties of bias, efficiency, and forecast encompassing. Results suggest that professional analysts, on average, produce EPS estimates that are more accurate than time series alternatives, yet the differences are often not statistically significant. For many of the firms examined, analysts' EPS estimates are found to be biased, inefficient, and do not encompass information in simple time series alternatives. For many firms in the sample, forecast accuracy has decreased over time. However, it is difficult to determine if this decline in forecast accuracy is due to turnover of analysts in the wake of increased financial market regulation (e.g., Sarbanes-Oxley), decline in forecasting skill, or structural changes in the food industry, which make it more difficult to forecast earnings over time. [EconLit citations: Q140; G170; M490]. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

ABSTRACT Analysts’ forecasting of earnings per share for multiple quarter time horizons of eleven... more ABSTRACT Analysts’ forecasting of earnings per share for multiple quarter time horizons of eleven agribusiness companies is evaluated using a mean absolute scaled error and a direct test. Results illustrate that unique information is consistently found. Rational and efficient expectations are formed periodically. Analysts’ performance declines as the time horizon increases.

Decisions made by publicly traded agribusinesses impact suppliers, processors, farmers, and even ... more Decisions made by publicly traded agribusinesses impact suppliers, processors, farmers, and even rural communities. Professional analysts' estimates of earnings per share (EPS) provide a unique source of information regarding firm-level financial performance. Incorporating a battery of tests, this research examines the forecast properties of consensus analysts' EPS estimates reported in the Institutional Brokers Estimate System for a sample of publicly traded food companies. While the results are mixed among firms, they suggest 1) analysts forecasts are largely unbiased but inefficient, and may not encompass information in simple time series models, and 2) EPS may be becoming more difficult to estimate.

Research in Accounting Regulation, 2009

The political cost explanation of positive accounting theory suggests that the accounting choices... more The political cost explanation of positive accounting theory suggests that the accounting choices and reactions of managers to a perceived crisis are impacted by expected responses of regulators and politicians. During the early months of 2001, the Enron failure and the rolling blackouts that affected many communities in California had captured the attention of the California Governor, the media, and the regulators. In this study, I examine whether the intense level of scrutiny caused by Enron, operating in the western region, had a spillover effect on accounting choices of firms within and beyond its region in the electric services and natural gas industry that is consistent with the political cost explanation . Positive accounting theory. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall]. The regulators, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), were concerned about the depth of Enron's trading schemes, financial reporting credibility, as well as the involvement of other firms. I find evidence consistent with the political cost explanation and that accounting choices vary systematically within and beyond the western region.

Purpose -The purpose of this study is to explore the effect of industry specialization on the abs... more Purpose -The purpose of this study is to explore the effect of industry specialization on the absorption and competitive pricing (or lack thereof)

ABSTRACT Professional analysts' estimates of earnings per share (EPS) provide a rare sour... more ABSTRACT Professional analysts' estimates of earnings per share (EPS) provide a rare source of forward-looking information regarding the financial performance of publicly traded firms. Although numerous studies in the economics, finance, and accounting literatures have examined the properties of these forecasts and provided general insight into their performance, no known research explicitly examines the performance of analysts' EPS estimates for publicly traded food companies. This issue is particularly relevant given the influence that publicly traded agribusiness companies maintain in the agro-food supply chain (Vickner, 2002). Focusing on quarterly consensus estimates of EPS for 11 of the largest publicly traded food companies based on capitalization, the authors examine the point accuracy of these estimates through the introduction of the mean absolute scaled error measure, their performance over time, as well as their optimal forecast properties of bias, efficiency, and forecast encompassing. Results suggest that professional analysts, on average, produce EPS estimates that are more accurate than time series alternatives, yet the differences are often not statistically significant. For many of the firms examined, analysts' EPS estimates are found to be biased, inefficient, and do not encompass information in simple time series alternatives. For many firms in the sample, forecast accuracy has decreased over time. However, it is difficult to determine if this decline in forecast accuracy is due to turnover of analysts in the wake of increased financial market regulation (e.g., Sarbanes-Oxley), decline in forecasting skill, or structural changes in the food industry, which make it more difficult to forecast earnings over time. [EconLit citations: Q140; G170; M490]. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

ABSTRACT Analysts’ forecasting of earnings per share for multiple quarter time horizons of eleven... more ABSTRACT Analysts’ forecasting of earnings per share for multiple quarter time horizons of eleven agribusiness companies is evaluated using a mean absolute scaled error and a direct test. Results illustrate that unique information is consistently found. Rational and efficient expectations are formed periodically. Analysts’ performance declines as the time horizon increases.

Decisions made by publicly traded agribusinesses impact suppliers, processors, farmers, and even ... more Decisions made by publicly traded agribusinesses impact suppliers, processors, farmers, and even rural communities. Professional analysts' estimates of earnings per share (EPS) provide a unique source of information regarding firm-level financial performance. Incorporating a battery of tests, this research examines the forecast properties of consensus analysts' EPS estimates reported in the Institutional Brokers Estimate System for a sample of publicly traded food companies. While the results are mixed among firms, they suggest 1) analysts forecasts are largely unbiased but inefficient, and may not encompass information in simple time series models, and 2) EPS may be becoming more difficult to estimate.

Research in Accounting Regulation, 2009

The political cost explanation of positive accounting theory suggests that the accounting choices... more The political cost explanation of positive accounting theory suggests that the accounting choices and reactions of managers to a perceived crisis are impacted by expected responses of regulators and politicians. During the early months of 2001, the Enron failure and the rolling blackouts that affected many communities in California had captured the attention of the California Governor, the media, and the regulators. In this study, I examine whether the intense level of scrutiny caused by Enron, operating in the western region, had a spillover effect on accounting choices of firms within and beyond its region in the electric services and natural gas industry that is consistent with the political cost explanation . Positive accounting theory. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall]. The regulators, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), were concerned about the depth of Enron's trading schemes, financial reporting credibility, as well as the involvement of other firms. I find evidence consistent with the political cost explanation and that accounting choices vary systematically within and beyond the western region.

Purpose -The purpose of this study is to explore the effect of industry specialization on the abs... more Purpose -The purpose of this study is to explore the effect of industry specialization on the absorption and competitive pricing (or lack thereof)