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Papers by wolfgang tysiak

Current Issues in Management of Business and Society Development - 2011, 2011

Every project contains risks in one of the dimensions costs, time, and quality. Therefore in pro... more Every project contains risks in one of the dimensions costs, time, and quality. Therefore
in project management there is the strong need to perform an elaborated risk management.
Especially the calculations with all the stochastic estimates (probabilities, densities,
distributions etc.) often cause problems in the quantitative risk analysis. In this article we will show how to deal with this by using Monte Carlo simulation and the well-known standard tool EXCEL.

2017 9th IEEE International Conference on Intelligent Data Acquisition and Advanced Computing Systems: Technology and Applications (IDAACS), 2017

In the course of the scheduling of a project we always have to face uncertainties in the planned ... more In the course of the scheduling of a project we always have to face uncertainties in the planned durations of the individual activities. The most frequently used method to handle this situation, is PERT. But PERT offers some detriments like the systematic underestimation of the real risk. Therefore a further development led to the “critical field” approach, which implies the use of Monte Carlo simulation. In this contribution the mentioned critical field approach is enhanced to the well-known critical chain technique, which also takes into account the availability of resources for the individual activities.

Oneoftheproblems inintrinsic linear models isthe characterization ofthenecessary transformations.... more Oneoftheproblems inintrinsic linear models isthe characterization ofthenecessary transformations. Inthis article we showa way to detect several monotone transformations (convex, concave, dummyvariables) bymeans oflogistic functions inthepredictors.

International Journal of Computing, 2010

In every project, especially in software and IT projects, there is the need to perform an elabora... more In every project, especially in software and IT projects, there is the need to perform an elaborated risk management. One main task that often causes problems is the quantitative risk analysis. In this article we will show how to deal with this by using a well-known standard product: EXCEL.

This document shows a possible way how to deal with insecurities in the time schedule of a projec... more This document shows a possible way how to deal with insecurities in the time schedule of a project plan. It shows that Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT), the most popular approach to handle this, bears some severe disadvantages. Furthermore it offers an alternative to overcome them by using Monte Carlo simulation. Finally it can be claimed that a complete change of paradigm is necessary: If you have any insecurities as inputs, everything becomes insecure. This might on the first sight convey the impression that the whole situation converts more complex, but we should rather accept this as the opportunity to apply all the well-known instruments from statistics.

International Journal of Computing

2015 IEEE 8th International Conference on Intelligent Data Acquisition and Advanced Computing Systems: Technology and Applications (IDAACS), 2015

2013 IEEE 7th International Conference on Intelligent Data Acquisition and Advanced Computing Systems (IDAACS), 2013

ABSTRACT This contribution to IDAACS2013 is in some sense a continuation of the talk in Prague in... more ABSTRACT This contribution to IDAACS2013 is in some sense a continuation of the talk in Prague in 2011. It presents some developments that were elaborated in the meantime (chapter II), but also some totally new ideas (chapter III). In chapter II it is shown that PERT systematically underestimates the real risk. Therefore it is very dangerous to rely on PERT's results. Chapter III deals with the buffers of individual tasks. The main result of this part is that you have to understand that if distributions or densities are introduced in the risk management process everything has to be described by distributions, even the buffers of the individual activities.

Proceedings of the 6th IEEE International Conference on Intelligent Data Acquisition and Advanced Computing Systems, 2011

ABSTRACT

2007 4th IEEE Workshop on Intelligent Data Acquisition and Advanced Computing Systems: Technology and Applications, 2007

ABSTRACT To forecast a term structure means that you can not simply forecast the rates for the di... more ABSTRACT To forecast a term structure means that you can not simply forecast the rates for the different times to maturity. By doing so one would neglect the dependencies within the term structure itself. Therefore you have to perform the forecasting in several steps.

2005 IEEE Intelligent Data Acquisition and Advanced Computing Systems: Technology and Applications, 2005

ABSTRACT One of the problems in intrinsic linear models is the characterization of the necessary ... more ABSTRACT One of the problems in intrinsic linear models is the characterization of the necessary transformations. In this article we show a way to detect several monotone transformations (convex, concave, dummy variables) by means of logistic functions in the predictors.

2009 IEEE International Workshop on Intelligent Data Acquisition and Advanced Computing Systems: Technology and Applications, 2009