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Papers by zahra rahmatinejad

Research paper thumbnail of Colorectal Cancer in North-Eastern Iran: a retrospective, comparative study of early-onset and late-onset cases based on data from the Iranian hereditary colorectal cancer registry

BMC Cancer, Jan 8, 2022

Background: The incidence rate of colorectal cancer (CRC) is increasing among patients below 50 y... more Background: The incidence rate of colorectal cancer (CRC) is increasing among patients below 50 years of age. The reason for this is unclear, but could have to do with the fact that indicative variables, such as tumour location, gender preference and genetic preponderance have not been followed up in a consistent mann er. The current study was primarily conducted to improve the hereditary CRC screening programme by assessing the demographic and clinicopathological characteristics of early-onset CRC compared to late-onset CRC in northeast Iran. Methods: This retrospective study, carried out over a three-year follow-up period (2014-2017), included 562 consecutive CRCs diagnosed in three Mashhad city hospital laboratories in northeastern Iran. We applied comparative analysis of pathological and hereditary features together with information on the presence of mismatch repair (MMR) gene deficiency with respect to recovery versus mortality. Patients with mutations resulting in absence of the MMR gene MLH1 protein product and normal BRAF status were considered to be at high risk of Lynch syndrome (LS). Analyses using R studio software were performed on early-onset CRC (n = 222) and late-onset CRC (n = 340), corresponding to patients ≤50 years of age and patients > 50 years. Results: From an age-of-onset point of view, the distribution between the genders differed with females showing a higher proportion of early-onset CRC than men (56% vs. 44%), while the late-onset CRC disparity was less pronounced (48% vs. 52%). The mean age of all participants was 55.6 ± 14.8 years, with 40.3 ± 7.3 years for early-onset CRC and 65.1 ± 9.3 years for late-onset CRC. With respect to anatomical tumour location (distal, rectal and proximal), the frequencies were 61, 28 and 11%, respectively, but the variation did not reach statistical significance. However, there was a dramatic difference with regard to the history of CRC in second-degree relatives between two age categories, with much higher numbers of family-related CRCs in the early-onset group. Expression of the MLH1 and PMS2

Research paper thumbnail of Comparison of Six Scoring Systems for Predicting In-hospital Mortality among Patients with SARS-COV2 Presenting to the Emergency Department

Indian Journal of Critical Care Medicine, May 31, 2023

Background: The study aimed to compare the prognostic accuracy of six different severity-of-illne... more Background: The study aimed to compare the prognostic accuracy of six different severity-of-illness scoring systems for predicting in-hospital mortality among patients with confirmed SARS-COV2 who presented to the emergency department (ED). The scoring systems assessed were worthing physiological score (WPS), early warning score (EWS), rapid acute physiology score (RAPS), rapid emergency medicine score (REMS), national early warning score (NEWS), and quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA). Materials and methods: A cohort study was conducted using data obtained from electronic medical records of 6,429 confirmed SARS-COV2 patients presenting to the ED. Logistic regression models were fitted on the original severity-of-illness scores to assess the models' performance using the Area Under the Curve for ROC (AUC-ROC) and Precision-Recall curves (AUC-PR), Brier Score (BS), and calibration plots were used to assess the models' performance. Bootstrap samples with multiple imputations were used for internal validation. Results: The mean age of the patients was 64 years (IQR:50-76) and 57.5% were male. The WPS, REMS, and NEWS models had AUROC of 0.714, 0.705, and 0.701, respectively. The poorest performance was observed in the RAPS model, with an AUROC of 0.601. The BS for the NEWS, qSOFA, EWS, WPS, RAPS, and REMS was 0.18, 0.09, 0.03, 0.14, 0.15, and 0.11 respectively. Excellent calibration was obtained for the NEWS, while the other models had proper calibration. Conclusion: The WPS, REMS, and NEWS have a fair discriminatory performance and may assist in risk stratification for SARS-COV2 patients presenting to the ED. Generally, underlying diseases and most vital signs are positively associated with mortality and were different between the survivors and non-survivors.

Research paper thumbnail of Internal Validation of the Predictive Performance of Models Based on Three ED and ICU Scoring Systems to Predict Inhospital Mortality for Intensive Care Patients Referred from the Emergency Department

BioMed Research International, Apr 25, 2022

Background.A variety of scoring systems have been introduced for use in both the emergency depart... more Background.A variety of scoring systems have been introduced for use in both the emergency department (ED) such as WPS, REMS, and MEWS and the intensive care unit (ICU) such as APACHE II, SAPS II, and SOFA for risk stratification and mortality prediction. However, the performance of these models in the ICU remains unclear and we aimed to evaluate and compare their performance in the ICU. Methods. This multicenter retrospective cohort study was conducted on severely ill patients admitted to the ICU directly from the ED in seven tertiary hospitals in Iran from August 2018 to August 2020. We evaluated all models in terms of discrimination (AUROC), the balance between positive predictive value and sensitivity (AUPRC), calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test and calibration plots), and overall performance using the Brier score (BS). The endpoint was considered inhospital mortality. Results. Among the 3,455 patients included in the study, 54.4% of individuals were male (N = 1,879) and 26.5% deceased (N = 916). The BS for the WPS, REMS, MEWS, APACHE II, SAPS II, and SOFA were 0.178, 0.165, 0.183, 0.157, 0.170, and 0.182, respectively. The AUROC of these models were 0.

Research paper thumbnail of Prognostic utilization of models based on the APACHE II, APACHE IV, and SAPS II scores for predicting in-hospital mortality in emergency department

American Journal of Emergency Medicine, Sep 1, 2020

BACKGROUND This study was designed to evaluate and compare the prognostic value of the APACHE II,... more BACKGROUND This study was designed to evaluate and compare the prognostic value of the APACHE II, APACHE IV, and SAPSII scores for predicting in-hospital mortality in the ED on a large sample of patients. Earlier studies in the ED setting have either used a small sample or focused on specific diagnoses. METHODS A prospective study was conducted to include patients with higher risk of mortality from March 2016 to March 2017 in the ED of Emam Reza Hospital, northeast of Iran. Logistic regression was used to develop three models. Evaluation was performed in terms of the overall performance (Brier Score, BS, and Brier Skill Score, BSS), discrimination (Area Under the Curve, AUC), and calibration (calibration graph). RESULTS A total of 2205 patients met the study criteria (53% male and median age of 64, IQR: 50-77). In-hospital mortality amounted to 19%. For APACHE II, APACHE IV, and SAPS II the BS was 0.132, 0.125 and 0.133 and the BSS was 0.156, 0.2, and 0.144, respectively. The AUC was 0.755 (0.74 to 0.779) for APACHE II, 0.794 (0.775 to 0.818) for APACHE IV, and 0.751 (0.727 to 0.776) for SAPS II. The APACHE IV showed significantly greater AUC in comparison to the APACHE II and SAPS II. The graphical evaluation revealed good calibration of the APACHE IV model. CONCLUSION APACHEIV outperformed APACHEII and SAPSII in terms of discrimination and calibration. More validation is needed for using these models for decision-making about individual patients, although they would perform best at a cohort level.

Research paper thumbnail of Predictive performance of the SOFA and mSOFA scoring systems for predicting in-hospital mortality in the emergency department

American Journal of Emergency Medicine, Jul 1, 2019

Background: The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) and modified SOFA (mSOFA) are risk str... more Background: The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) and modified SOFA (mSOFA) are risk stratification systems which incorporate respiratory, coagulatory, liver, cardiovascular, renal, and neurologic systems to quantify the overall severity of acute disorder in the intensive care unit. Objective: To evaluate the prognostic performance of the SOFA and mSOFA scores at arrival for predicting in-hospital mortality in the Emergency Department (ED). Methods: All adult patients with an Emergency Severity Index (ESI) of 1-3 in the ED of Imam Reza Hospital, northeast of Iran were included from March 2016 to March 2017. The predictive performance of the SOFA or mSOFA scores were expressed in terms of accuracy (Brier Score, BS and Brier Skill Score, BSS), discrimination (Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve, AUC), and calibration. Results: A total of 2205 patients (mean age 61.8 ± 18.5 years, 53% male) were included. The overall in-hospital mortality was 19%. For SOFA and mSOFA the BS was 0.209 and 0.192 and the BSS was 0.11 and 0.09, respectively. The estimated AUCs of SOFA and mSOFA models were 0.751 and 0.739, respectively. No significant difference was observed between the AUCs (P=0.186). The Hosmer-Lemeshow test did not show that the predictions deviated from the true probabilities. Also, the calibration plots revealed good agreement between the actual and predicted probabilities. Conclusion: The SOFA and mSOFA scores demonstrated fair discrimination and good calibration in predicting in-hospital mortality when applied to ED. However, further external validation studies are needed before their use in routine clinical care.

Research paper thumbnail of Comparing In-Hospital Mortality Prediction by Senior Emergency Resident’s Judgment and Prognostic Models in the Emergency Department

BioMed Research International, May 15, 2023

Background. A comparison of emergency residents' judgments and two derivatives of the Sequential ... more Background. A comparison of emergency residents' judgments and two derivatives of the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), namely, the mSOFA and the qSOFA, was conducted to determine the accuracy of predicting in-hospital mortality among critically ill patients in the emergency department (ED). Methods. A prospective cohort research was performed on patients over 18 years of age presented to the ED. We used logistic regression to develop a model for predicting in-hospital mortality by using qSOFA, mSOFA, and residents' judgment scores. We compared the accuracy of prognostic models and residents' judgment in terms of the overall accuracy of the predicted probabilities (Brier score), discrimination (area under the ROC curve), and calibration (calibration graph). Analyses were carried out using R software version R-4.2.0. Results. In the study, 2,205 patients with median age of 64 (IQR: 50-77) years were included. There were no significant differences between the qSOFA (AUC 0.70; 95% CI: 0.67-0.73) and physician's judgment (AUC 0.68; 0.65-0.71). Despite this, the discrimination of mSOFA (AUC 0.74; 0.71-0.77) was significantly higher than that of the qSOFA and residents' judgments. Additionally, the AUC-PR of mSOFA, qSOFA, and emergency resident's judgments was 0.45 (0.43-0.47), 0.38 (0.36-0.40), and 0.35 (0.33-0.37), respectively. The mSOFA appears stronger in terms of overall performance: 0.13 vs. 0.14 and 0.15. All three models showed good calibration. Conclusion. The performance of emergency residents' judgment and the qSOFA was the same in predicting in-hospital mortality. However, the mSOFA predicted better-calibrated mortality risk. Large-scale studies should be conducted to determine the utility of these models.

Research paper thumbnail of PTEN hamartoma tumour syndrome: case report based on data from the Iranian hereditary colorectal cancer registry and literature review

Diagnostic Pathology, Apr 4, 2023

Background PTEN hamartoma tumour syndrome (PHTS) is a rare hereditary disorder caused by germline... more Background PTEN hamartoma tumour syndrome (PHTS) is a rare hereditary disorder caused by germline pathogenic mutations in the PTEN gene. This study presents a case of PHTS referred for genetic evaluation due to multiple polyps in the rectosigmoid area, and provides a literature review of PHTS case reports published between March 2010 and March 2022. Case presentation A 39-year-old Iranian female with a family history of gastric cancer in a first-degree relative presented with minimal bright red blood per rectum and resistant dyspepsia. Colonoscopy revealed the presence of over 20 polyps in the rectosigmoid area, while the rest of the colon appeared normal. Further upper endoscopy showed multiple small polyps in the stomach and duodenum, leading to a referral for genetic evaluation of hereditary colorectal polyposis. Whole-exome sequencing led to a PHTS diagnosis, even though the patient displayed no clinical or skin symptoms of the condition. Further screenings identified early-stage breast cancer and benign thyroid nodules through mammography and thyroid ultrasound. Method and results of literature review A search of PubMed using the search terms "Hamartoma syndrome, Multiple" [Mesh] AND "case report" OR "case series" yielded 43 case reports, predominantly in women with a median age of 39 years. The literature suggests that patients with PHTS often have a family history of breast, thyroid and endometrial neoplasms along with pathogenic variants in the PTEN/MMAC1 gene. Gastrointestinal polyps are one of the most common signs reported in the literature, and the presence of acral keratosis, trichilemmomas and mucocutaneous papillomas are pathognomonic characteristics of PHTS. Conclusion When a patient presents with more than 20 rectosigmoid polyps, PHTS should be considered. In such cases, it is recommended to conduct further investigations to identify other potential manifestations and the phenotype of PHTS. Women with PHTS should undergo annual mammography and magnetic resonance testing for breast cancer screening from the age of 30, in addition to annual transvaginal ultrasounds and blind suction endometrial biopsies.

Research paper thumbnail of Internal validation and evaluation of the predictive performance of models based on the PRISM-3 (Pediatric Risk of Mortality) and PIM-3 (Pediatric Index of Mortality) scoring systems for predicting mortality in Pediatric Intensive Care Units (PICUs)

BMC Pediatrics, Apr 12, 2022

The study was aimed to assess the prognostic power The Pediatric Risk of Mortality-3 (PRISM-3) an... more The study was aimed to assess the prognostic power The Pediatric Risk of Mortality-3 (PRISM-3) and the Pediatric Index of Mortality-3 (PIM-3) to predict in-hospital mortality in a sample of patients admitted to the PICUs. Design and methods: The study was performed to include all children younger than 18 years of age admitted to receive critical care in two hospitals, Mashhad, northeast of Iran from December 2017 to November 2018. The predictive performance was quantified in terms of the overall performance by measuring the Brier Score (BS) and standardized mortality ratio (SMR), discrimination by assessing the AUC, and calibration by applying the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Results: A total of 2446 patients with the median age of 4.2 months (56% male) were included in the study. The PICU and in-hospital mortality were 12.4 and 16.14%, respectively. The BS of the PRISM-3 and PIM-3 was 0.088 and 0.093 for PICU mortality and 0.108 and 0.113 for in-hospital mortality. For the entire sample, the SMR of the PRISM-3 and PIM-3 were 1.34 and 1.37 for PICU mortality and 1.73 and 1.78 for in-hospital mortality, respectively. The PRISM-3 demonstrated significantly higher discrimination power in comparison with the PIM-3 (AUC = 0.829 vs 0.745) for in-hospital mortality. (AUC = 0.779 vs 0.739) for in-hospital mortality. The HL test revealed poor calibration for both models in both outcomes. Conclusions: The performance measures of PRISM-3 were better than PIM-3 in both PICU and in-hospital mortality. However, further recalibration and modification studies are required to improve the predictive power to a clinically acceptable level before daily clinical use.

Research paper thumbnail of Development of a National Core Data Set for the Iranian Icu Patient Outcome Prediction

Acta HealthMedica, Feb 25, 2017

Introduction: To define a core data set for ICU patients outcome prediction in Iran. This core da... more Introduction: To define a core data set for ICU patients outcome prediction in Iran. This core data set will lead us to design ICU outcome prediction models with the most effective parameters. Methods: A combination of literature review and expert consensus meetings were used. First, a literature review was performed by a general search in PubMed to find the most appropriate models for intensive care mortality prediction and their parameters. As the next step, in a national survey, experts from medical centers in all parts of Iran were asked to comment on a list of items retrieved from an earlier literature review study. In the next stage, a central committee of experts was installed. In four meetings the central committee discussed the newly suggested items and other parameters, which were known necessary by at least one-third of the experts. Each data item was examined separately and included/excluded by committee consensus. Results: The combination of the literature review findings and experts' consensus resulted in a draft data set, including 26 data items. Ninety-two percent of data items in the draft data set were retrieved from the literature study, and the others were suggested by the experts. The final data set of 24 data items covers patient history and physical examination, chemistry, vital signs, oxygenations and some more specific parameters. Conclusion: This data set was defined designed to develop a nationwide prognostic model for predicting ICU mortality and patients' length of stay. This data set opens the door for creating standardized approaches in data collection in the Iranian intensive care unit estimation of resource utility.

Research paper thumbnail of Geospatial epidemiology of hospitalized patients with a positive influenza assay: A nationwide study in Iran, 2016–2018

PLOS ONE, Dec 13, 2022

Introduction Seasonal influenza is a significant public health challenge worldwide. This study ai... more Introduction Seasonal influenza is a significant public health challenge worldwide. This study aimed to investigate the epidemiological characteristics and spatial patterns of severe hospitalized influenza cases confirmed by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) in Iran. Methods Data were obtained from Iran's Ministry of Health and Medical Education and included all hospitalized lab-confirmed influenza cases from January 1, 2016, to December 30, 2018 (n = 9146). The Getis-Ord Gi* and Local Moran's I statistics were used to explore the hotspot areas and spatial cluster/outlier patterns of influenza. We also built a multivariable logistic regression model to identify covariates associated with patients' mortality. Results Cumulative incidence and mortality rate were estimated at 11.44 and 0.49 (per 100,000), respectively, and case fatality rate was estimated at 4.35%. The patients' median age was 40 (interquartile range: 22-63), and 55.5% (n = 5073) were female. The hotspot and cluster analyses revealed high-risk areas in northern parts of Iran, especially in cold, humid, and

Research paper thumbnail of Internal validation and comparison of the prognostic performance of models based on six emergency scoring systems to predict in-hospital mortality in the emergency department

BMC Emergency Medicine, Jun 10, 2021

Background: Medical scoring systems are potentially useful to make optimal use of available resou... more Background: Medical scoring systems are potentially useful to make optimal use of available resources. A variety of models have been developed for illness measurement and stratification of patients in Emergency Departments (EDs). This study was aimed to compare the predictive performance of the following six scoring systems: Simple Clinical Score (SCS), Worthing physiological Score (WPS), Rapid Acute Physiology Score (RAPS), Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (REMS), Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), and Routine Laboratory Data (RLD) to predict inhospital mortality. Methods: A prospective single-center observational study was conducted from March 2016 to March 2017 in Edalatian ED in Emam Reza Hospital, located in the northeast of Iran. All variables needed to calculate the models were recorded at the time of admission and logistic regression was used to develop the models' prediction probabilities. The Area Under the Curve for Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUC-ROC) and Precision-Recall curves (AUC-PR), Brier Score (BS), and calibration plots were used to assess the models' performance. Internal validation was obtained by 1000 bootstrap samples. Pairwise comparison of AUC-ROC was based on the DeLong test.

Research paper thumbnail of PTEN hamartoma tumour syndrome: case report based on data from the Iranian hereditary colorectal cancer registry and literature review

Diagnostic Pathology

Background PTEN hamartoma tumour syndrome (PHTS) is a rare hereditary disorder caused by germline... more Background PTEN hamartoma tumour syndrome (PHTS) is a rare hereditary disorder caused by germline pathogenic mutations in the PTEN gene. This study presents a case of PHTS referred for genetic evaluation due to multiple polyps in the rectosigmoid area, and provides a literature review of PHTS case reports published between March 2010 and March 2022. Case presentation A 39-year-old Iranian female with a family history of gastric cancer in a first-degree relative presented with minimal bright red blood per rectum and resistant dyspepsia. Colonoscopy revealed the presence of over 20 polyps in the rectosigmoid area, while the rest of the colon appeared normal. Further upper endoscopy showed multiple small polyps in the stomach and duodenum, leading to a referral for genetic evaluation of hereditary colorectal polyposis. Whole-exome sequencing led to a PHTS diagnosis, even though the patient displayed no clinical or skin symptoms of the condition. Further screenings identified early-stag...

Research paper thumbnail of Comparing In-Hospital Mortality Prediction by Senior Emergency Resident’s Judgment and Prognostic Models in the Emergency Department

BioMed Research International

Background. A comparison of emergency residents’ judgments and two derivatives of the Sequential ... more Background. A comparison of emergency residents’ judgments and two derivatives of the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), namely, the mSOFA and the qSOFA, was conducted to determine the accuracy of predicting in-hospital mortality among critically ill patients in the emergency department (ED). Methods. A prospective cohort research was performed on patients over 18 years of age presented to the ED. We used logistic regression to develop a model for predicting in-hospital mortality by using qSOFA, mSOFA, and residents’ judgment scores. We compared the accuracy of prognostic models and residents’ judgment in terms of the overall accuracy of the predicted probabilities (Brier score), discrimination (area under the ROC curve), and calibration (calibration graph). Analyses were carried out using R software version R-4.2.0. Results. In the study, 2,205 patients with median age of 64 (IQR: 50-77) years were included. There were no significant differences between the qSOFA (AUC 0.70...

Research paper thumbnail of Geospatial epidemiology of hospitalized patients with a positive influenza assay: A nationwide study in Iran, 2016–2018

PLOS ONE, Dec 13, 2022

Introduction Seasonal influenza is a significant public health challenge worldwide. This study ai... more Introduction Seasonal influenza is a significant public health challenge worldwide. This study aimed to investigate the epidemiological characteristics and spatial patterns of severe hospitalized influenza cases confirmed by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) in Iran. Methods Data were obtained from Iran's Ministry of Health and Medical Education and included all hospitalized lab-confirmed influenza cases from January 1, 2016, to December 30, 2018 (n = 9146). The Getis-Ord Gi* and Local Moran's I statistics were used to explore the hotspot areas and spatial cluster/outlier patterns of influenza. We also built a multivariable logistic regression model to identify covariates associated with patients' mortality. Results Cumulative incidence and mortality rate were estimated at 11.44 and 0.49 (per 100,000), respectively, and case fatality rate was estimated at 4.35%. The patients' median age was 40 (interquartile range: 22-63), and 55.5% (n = 5073) were female. The hotspot and cluster analyses revealed high-risk areas in northern parts of Iran, especially in cold, humid, and

Research paper thumbnail of Internal Validation of the Predictive Performance of Models Based on Three ED and ICU Scoring Systems to Predict Inhospital Mortality for Intensive Care Patients Referred from the Emergency Department

BioMed Research International

Background.A variety of scoring systems have been introduced for use in both the emergency depart... more Background.A variety of scoring systems have been introduced for use in both the emergency department (ED) such as WPS, REMS, and MEWS and the intensive care unit (ICU) such as APACHE II, SAPS II, and SOFA for risk stratification and mortality prediction. However, the performance of these models in the ICU remains unclear and we aimed to evaluate and compare their performance in the ICU. Methods. This multicenter retrospective cohort study was conducted on severely ill patients admitted to the ICU directly from the ED in seven tertiary hospitals in Iran from August 2018 to August 2020. We evaluated all models in terms of discrimination (AUROC), the balance between positive predictive value and sensitivity (AUPRC), calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test and calibration plots), and overall performance using the Brier score (BS). The endpoint was considered inhospital mortality. Results. Among the 3,455 patients included in the study, 54.4% of individuals were male ( N = 1,879 ) and 26.5% d...

Research paper thumbnail of Additional file 1 of Colorectal Cancer in North-Eastern Iran: a retrospective, comparative study of early-onset and late-onset cases based on data from the Iranian hereditary colorectal cancer registry

Research paper thumbnail of Identification of related factors to discharge against medical advice in an emergency department: A cross-sectional study

Majallah-i Dānishkadah-i ̒ulūm-i Pizishkī-i Niyshābūr, 2018

Introduction and Aims: The choice of the patient to leave the hospital before the physician disch... more Introduction and Aims: The choice of the patient to leave the hospital before the physician discharges him is called discharge against medical advice (DAMA). The purpose of this study was to identify the characteristics of patients with DAMA and compare them with non-DAMA patients. Materials and Methods: This cross-sectional study was performed on all the patients discharged from the emergency department of Imam Reza Hospital in Mashhad in 2015. The patients' data were retrieved from their electronic medical records. After pre-processing, the data were finally analyzed using a frequency table and a chi-square test. All analyzes were performed using SPSS Statistics Version 22 software. Results: The total number of the eligible patients in the study was 19,313, of whom 6,993 were discharged against medical advice. The mean age of DAMA patients was 38.1 ± 19.34 years. 57% of DAMA patients were male; and being young, married, and lack of insurance were three major factors associated...

Research paper thumbnail of Internal validation and evaluation of the predictive performance of models based on the PRISM-3 (Pediatric Risk of Mortality) and PIM-3 (Pediatric Index of Mortality) scoring systems for predicting mortality in Pediatric Intensive Care Units (PICUs)

BMC Pediatrics

Purpose The study was aimed to assess the prognostic power The Pediatric Risk of Mortality-3 (PRI... more Purpose The study was aimed to assess the prognostic power The Pediatric Risk of Mortality-3 (PRISM-3) and the Pediatric Index of Mortality-3 (PIM-3) to predict in-hospital mortality in a sample of patients admitted to the PICUs. Design and methods The study was performed to include all children younger than 18 years of age admitted to receive critical care in two hospitals, Mashhad, northeast of Iran from December 2017 to November 2018. The predictive performance was quantified in terms of the overall performance by measuring the Brier Score (BS) and standardized mortality ratio (SMR), discrimination by assessing the AUC, and calibration by applying the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Results A total of 2446 patients with the median age of 4.2 months (56% male) were included in the study. The PICU and in-hospital mortality were 12.4 and 16.14%, respectively. The BS of the PRISM-3 and PIM-3 was 0.088 and 0.093 for PICU mortality and 0.108 and 0.113 for in-hospital mortality. For the entire sa...

Research paper thumbnail of Development of a National Core Dataset for the Iranian ICU Patients Outcome Prediction; a Comprehensive Approach

Journal of Innovation in Health Informatics, Jun 15, 2018

To define a core dataset for ICU Patients Outcome Prediction in Iran. This core data set will lea... more To define a core dataset for ICU Patients Outcome Prediction in Iran. This core data set will lead us to design ICU outcome prediction models with the most effective parameters. A combination of literature review, national survey and expert consensus meetings were used. First, a literature review was performed by a general search in PubMed to find the most appropriate models for intensive care mortality prediction and their parameters. Secondly, in a national survey, experts from a couple of medical centers in all parts of Iran were asked to comment on a list of items retrieved from the earlier literature review study. In the next step, a multi-disciplinary committee of experts was installed. In 4 meetings each data item was examined separately and included/excluded by committee consensus. The combination of the literature review findings and experts' consensus resulted in a draft dataset including 26 data items. 92% percent of data items in the draft dataset were retrieved fro...

Research paper thumbnail of Colorectal Cancer in North-Eastern Iran: a retrospective, comparative study of early-onset and late-onset cases based on data from the Iranian hereditary colorectal cancer registry

BMC Cancer

Background The incidence rate of colorectal cancer (CRC) is increasing among patients below 50 ye... more Background The incidence rate of colorectal cancer (CRC) is increasing among patients below 50 years of age. The reason for this is unclear, but could have to do with the fact that indicative variables, such as tumour location, gender preference and genetic preponderance have not been followed up in a consistent mann er. The current study was primarily conducted to improve the hereditary CRC screening programme by assessing the demographic and clinicopathological characteristics of early-onset CRC compared to late-onset CRC in northeast Iran. Methods This retrospective study, carried out over a three-year follow-up period (2014–2017), included 562 consecutive CRCs diagnosed in three Mashhad city hospital laboratories in north-eastern Iran. We applied comparative analysis of pathological and hereditary features together with information on the presence of mismatch repair (MMR) gene deficiency with respect to recovery versus mortality. Patients with mutations resulting in absence of t...

Research paper thumbnail of Colorectal Cancer in North-Eastern Iran: a retrospective, comparative study of early-onset and late-onset cases based on data from the Iranian hereditary colorectal cancer registry

BMC Cancer, Jan 8, 2022

Background: The incidence rate of colorectal cancer (CRC) is increasing among patients below 50 y... more Background: The incidence rate of colorectal cancer (CRC) is increasing among patients below 50 years of age. The reason for this is unclear, but could have to do with the fact that indicative variables, such as tumour location, gender preference and genetic preponderance have not been followed up in a consistent mann er. The current study was primarily conducted to improve the hereditary CRC screening programme by assessing the demographic and clinicopathological characteristics of early-onset CRC compared to late-onset CRC in northeast Iran. Methods: This retrospective study, carried out over a three-year follow-up period (2014-2017), included 562 consecutive CRCs diagnosed in three Mashhad city hospital laboratories in northeastern Iran. We applied comparative analysis of pathological and hereditary features together with information on the presence of mismatch repair (MMR) gene deficiency with respect to recovery versus mortality. Patients with mutations resulting in absence of the MMR gene MLH1 protein product and normal BRAF status were considered to be at high risk of Lynch syndrome (LS). Analyses using R studio software were performed on early-onset CRC (n = 222) and late-onset CRC (n = 340), corresponding to patients ≤50 years of age and patients > 50 years. Results: From an age-of-onset point of view, the distribution between the genders differed with females showing a higher proportion of early-onset CRC than men (56% vs. 44%), while the late-onset CRC disparity was less pronounced (48% vs. 52%). The mean age of all participants was 55.6 ± 14.8 years, with 40.3 ± 7.3 years for early-onset CRC and 65.1 ± 9.3 years for late-onset CRC. With respect to anatomical tumour location (distal, rectal and proximal), the frequencies were 61, 28 and 11%, respectively, but the variation did not reach statistical significance. However, there was a dramatic difference with regard to the history of CRC in second-degree relatives between two age categories, with much higher numbers of family-related CRCs in the early-onset group. Expression of the MLH1 and PMS2

Research paper thumbnail of Comparison of Six Scoring Systems for Predicting In-hospital Mortality among Patients with SARS-COV2 Presenting to the Emergency Department

Indian Journal of Critical Care Medicine, May 31, 2023

Background: The study aimed to compare the prognostic accuracy of six different severity-of-illne... more Background: The study aimed to compare the prognostic accuracy of six different severity-of-illness scoring systems for predicting in-hospital mortality among patients with confirmed SARS-COV2 who presented to the emergency department (ED). The scoring systems assessed were worthing physiological score (WPS), early warning score (EWS), rapid acute physiology score (RAPS), rapid emergency medicine score (REMS), national early warning score (NEWS), and quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA). Materials and methods: A cohort study was conducted using data obtained from electronic medical records of 6,429 confirmed SARS-COV2 patients presenting to the ED. Logistic regression models were fitted on the original severity-of-illness scores to assess the models' performance using the Area Under the Curve for ROC (AUC-ROC) and Precision-Recall curves (AUC-PR), Brier Score (BS), and calibration plots were used to assess the models' performance. Bootstrap samples with multiple imputations were used for internal validation. Results: The mean age of the patients was 64 years (IQR:50-76) and 57.5% were male. The WPS, REMS, and NEWS models had AUROC of 0.714, 0.705, and 0.701, respectively. The poorest performance was observed in the RAPS model, with an AUROC of 0.601. The BS for the NEWS, qSOFA, EWS, WPS, RAPS, and REMS was 0.18, 0.09, 0.03, 0.14, 0.15, and 0.11 respectively. Excellent calibration was obtained for the NEWS, while the other models had proper calibration. Conclusion: The WPS, REMS, and NEWS have a fair discriminatory performance and may assist in risk stratification for SARS-COV2 patients presenting to the ED. Generally, underlying diseases and most vital signs are positively associated with mortality and were different between the survivors and non-survivors.

Research paper thumbnail of Internal Validation of the Predictive Performance of Models Based on Three ED and ICU Scoring Systems to Predict Inhospital Mortality for Intensive Care Patients Referred from the Emergency Department

BioMed Research International, Apr 25, 2022

Background.A variety of scoring systems have been introduced for use in both the emergency depart... more Background.A variety of scoring systems have been introduced for use in both the emergency department (ED) such as WPS, REMS, and MEWS and the intensive care unit (ICU) such as APACHE II, SAPS II, and SOFA for risk stratification and mortality prediction. However, the performance of these models in the ICU remains unclear and we aimed to evaluate and compare their performance in the ICU. Methods. This multicenter retrospective cohort study was conducted on severely ill patients admitted to the ICU directly from the ED in seven tertiary hospitals in Iran from August 2018 to August 2020. We evaluated all models in terms of discrimination (AUROC), the balance between positive predictive value and sensitivity (AUPRC), calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test and calibration plots), and overall performance using the Brier score (BS). The endpoint was considered inhospital mortality. Results. Among the 3,455 patients included in the study, 54.4% of individuals were male (N = 1,879) and 26.5% deceased (N = 916). The BS for the WPS, REMS, MEWS, APACHE II, SAPS II, and SOFA were 0.178, 0.165, 0.183, 0.157, 0.170, and 0.182, respectively. The AUROC of these models were 0.

Research paper thumbnail of Prognostic utilization of models based on the APACHE II, APACHE IV, and SAPS II scores for predicting in-hospital mortality in emergency department

American Journal of Emergency Medicine, Sep 1, 2020

BACKGROUND This study was designed to evaluate and compare the prognostic value of the APACHE II,... more BACKGROUND This study was designed to evaluate and compare the prognostic value of the APACHE II, APACHE IV, and SAPSII scores for predicting in-hospital mortality in the ED on a large sample of patients. Earlier studies in the ED setting have either used a small sample or focused on specific diagnoses. METHODS A prospective study was conducted to include patients with higher risk of mortality from March 2016 to March 2017 in the ED of Emam Reza Hospital, northeast of Iran. Logistic regression was used to develop three models. Evaluation was performed in terms of the overall performance (Brier Score, BS, and Brier Skill Score, BSS), discrimination (Area Under the Curve, AUC), and calibration (calibration graph). RESULTS A total of 2205 patients met the study criteria (53% male and median age of 64, IQR: 50-77). In-hospital mortality amounted to 19%. For APACHE II, APACHE IV, and SAPS II the BS was 0.132, 0.125 and 0.133 and the BSS was 0.156, 0.2, and 0.144, respectively. The AUC was 0.755 (0.74 to 0.779) for APACHE II, 0.794 (0.775 to 0.818) for APACHE IV, and 0.751 (0.727 to 0.776) for SAPS II. The APACHE IV showed significantly greater AUC in comparison to the APACHE II and SAPS II. The graphical evaluation revealed good calibration of the APACHE IV model. CONCLUSION APACHEIV outperformed APACHEII and SAPSII in terms of discrimination and calibration. More validation is needed for using these models for decision-making about individual patients, although they would perform best at a cohort level.

Research paper thumbnail of Predictive performance of the SOFA and mSOFA scoring systems for predicting in-hospital mortality in the emergency department

American Journal of Emergency Medicine, Jul 1, 2019

Background: The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) and modified SOFA (mSOFA) are risk str... more Background: The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) and modified SOFA (mSOFA) are risk stratification systems which incorporate respiratory, coagulatory, liver, cardiovascular, renal, and neurologic systems to quantify the overall severity of acute disorder in the intensive care unit. Objective: To evaluate the prognostic performance of the SOFA and mSOFA scores at arrival for predicting in-hospital mortality in the Emergency Department (ED). Methods: All adult patients with an Emergency Severity Index (ESI) of 1-3 in the ED of Imam Reza Hospital, northeast of Iran were included from March 2016 to March 2017. The predictive performance of the SOFA or mSOFA scores were expressed in terms of accuracy (Brier Score, BS and Brier Skill Score, BSS), discrimination (Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve, AUC), and calibration. Results: A total of 2205 patients (mean age 61.8 ± 18.5 years, 53% male) were included. The overall in-hospital mortality was 19%. For SOFA and mSOFA the BS was 0.209 and 0.192 and the BSS was 0.11 and 0.09, respectively. The estimated AUCs of SOFA and mSOFA models were 0.751 and 0.739, respectively. No significant difference was observed between the AUCs (P=0.186). The Hosmer-Lemeshow test did not show that the predictions deviated from the true probabilities. Also, the calibration plots revealed good agreement between the actual and predicted probabilities. Conclusion: The SOFA and mSOFA scores demonstrated fair discrimination and good calibration in predicting in-hospital mortality when applied to ED. However, further external validation studies are needed before their use in routine clinical care.

Research paper thumbnail of Comparing In-Hospital Mortality Prediction by Senior Emergency Resident’s Judgment and Prognostic Models in the Emergency Department

BioMed Research International, May 15, 2023

Background. A comparison of emergency residents' judgments and two derivatives of the Sequential ... more Background. A comparison of emergency residents' judgments and two derivatives of the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), namely, the mSOFA and the qSOFA, was conducted to determine the accuracy of predicting in-hospital mortality among critically ill patients in the emergency department (ED). Methods. A prospective cohort research was performed on patients over 18 years of age presented to the ED. We used logistic regression to develop a model for predicting in-hospital mortality by using qSOFA, mSOFA, and residents' judgment scores. We compared the accuracy of prognostic models and residents' judgment in terms of the overall accuracy of the predicted probabilities (Brier score), discrimination (area under the ROC curve), and calibration (calibration graph). Analyses were carried out using R software version R-4.2.0. Results. In the study, 2,205 patients with median age of 64 (IQR: 50-77) years were included. There were no significant differences between the qSOFA (AUC 0.70; 95% CI: 0.67-0.73) and physician's judgment (AUC 0.68; 0.65-0.71). Despite this, the discrimination of mSOFA (AUC 0.74; 0.71-0.77) was significantly higher than that of the qSOFA and residents' judgments. Additionally, the AUC-PR of mSOFA, qSOFA, and emergency resident's judgments was 0.45 (0.43-0.47), 0.38 (0.36-0.40), and 0.35 (0.33-0.37), respectively. The mSOFA appears stronger in terms of overall performance: 0.13 vs. 0.14 and 0.15. All three models showed good calibration. Conclusion. The performance of emergency residents' judgment and the qSOFA was the same in predicting in-hospital mortality. However, the mSOFA predicted better-calibrated mortality risk. Large-scale studies should be conducted to determine the utility of these models.

Research paper thumbnail of PTEN hamartoma tumour syndrome: case report based on data from the Iranian hereditary colorectal cancer registry and literature review

Diagnostic Pathology, Apr 4, 2023

Background PTEN hamartoma tumour syndrome (PHTS) is a rare hereditary disorder caused by germline... more Background PTEN hamartoma tumour syndrome (PHTS) is a rare hereditary disorder caused by germline pathogenic mutations in the PTEN gene. This study presents a case of PHTS referred for genetic evaluation due to multiple polyps in the rectosigmoid area, and provides a literature review of PHTS case reports published between March 2010 and March 2022. Case presentation A 39-year-old Iranian female with a family history of gastric cancer in a first-degree relative presented with minimal bright red blood per rectum and resistant dyspepsia. Colonoscopy revealed the presence of over 20 polyps in the rectosigmoid area, while the rest of the colon appeared normal. Further upper endoscopy showed multiple small polyps in the stomach and duodenum, leading to a referral for genetic evaluation of hereditary colorectal polyposis. Whole-exome sequencing led to a PHTS diagnosis, even though the patient displayed no clinical or skin symptoms of the condition. Further screenings identified early-stage breast cancer and benign thyroid nodules through mammography and thyroid ultrasound. Method and results of literature review A search of PubMed using the search terms "Hamartoma syndrome, Multiple" [Mesh] AND "case report" OR "case series" yielded 43 case reports, predominantly in women with a median age of 39 years. The literature suggests that patients with PHTS often have a family history of breast, thyroid and endometrial neoplasms along with pathogenic variants in the PTEN/MMAC1 gene. Gastrointestinal polyps are one of the most common signs reported in the literature, and the presence of acral keratosis, trichilemmomas and mucocutaneous papillomas are pathognomonic characteristics of PHTS. Conclusion When a patient presents with more than 20 rectosigmoid polyps, PHTS should be considered. In such cases, it is recommended to conduct further investigations to identify other potential manifestations and the phenotype of PHTS. Women with PHTS should undergo annual mammography and magnetic resonance testing for breast cancer screening from the age of 30, in addition to annual transvaginal ultrasounds and blind suction endometrial biopsies.

Research paper thumbnail of Internal validation and evaluation of the predictive performance of models based on the PRISM-3 (Pediatric Risk of Mortality) and PIM-3 (Pediatric Index of Mortality) scoring systems for predicting mortality in Pediatric Intensive Care Units (PICUs)

BMC Pediatrics, Apr 12, 2022

The study was aimed to assess the prognostic power The Pediatric Risk of Mortality-3 (PRISM-3) an... more The study was aimed to assess the prognostic power The Pediatric Risk of Mortality-3 (PRISM-3) and the Pediatric Index of Mortality-3 (PIM-3) to predict in-hospital mortality in a sample of patients admitted to the PICUs. Design and methods: The study was performed to include all children younger than 18 years of age admitted to receive critical care in two hospitals, Mashhad, northeast of Iran from December 2017 to November 2018. The predictive performance was quantified in terms of the overall performance by measuring the Brier Score (BS) and standardized mortality ratio (SMR), discrimination by assessing the AUC, and calibration by applying the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Results: A total of 2446 patients with the median age of 4.2 months (56% male) were included in the study. The PICU and in-hospital mortality were 12.4 and 16.14%, respectively. The BS of the PRISM-3 and PIM-3 was 0.088 and 0.093 for PICU mortality and 0.108 and 0.113 for in-hospital mortality. For the entire sample, the SMR of the PRISM-3 and PIM-3 were 1.34 and 1.37 for PICU mortality and 1.73 and 1.78 for in-hospital mortality, respectively. The PRISM-3 demonstrated significantly higher discrimination power in comparison with the PIM-3 (AUC = 0.829 vs 0.745) for in-hospital mortality. (AUC = 0.779 vs 0.739) for in-hospital mortality. The HL test revealed poor calibration for both models in both outcomes. Conclusions: The performance measures of PRISM-3 were better than PIM-3 in both PICU and in-hospital mortality. However, further recalibration and modification studies are required to improve the predictive power to a clinically acceptable level before daily clinical use.

Research paper thumbnail of Development of a National Core Data Set for the Iranian Icu Patient Outcome Prediction

Acta HealthMedica, Feb 25, 2017

Introduction: To define a core data set for ICU patients outcome prediction in Iran. This core da... more Introduction: To define a core data set for ICU patients outcome prediction in Iran. This core data set will lead us to design ICU outcome prediction models with the most effective parameters. Methods: A combination of literature review and expert consensus meetings were used. First, a literature review was performed by a general search in PubMed to find the most appropriate models for intensive care mortality prediction and their parameters. As the next step, in a national survey, experts from medical centers in all parts of Iran were asked to comment on a list of items retrieved from an earlier literature review study. In the next stage, a central committee of experts was installed. In four meetings the central committee discussed the newly suggested items and other parameters, which were known necessary by at least one-third of the experts. Each data item was examined separately and included/excluded by committee consensus. Results: The combination of the literature review findings and experts' consensus resulted in a draft data set, including 26 data items. Ninety-two percent of data items in the draft data set were retrieved from the literature study, and the others were suggested by the experts. The final data set of 24 data items covers patient history and physical examination, chemistry, vital signs, oxygenations and some more specific parameters. Conclusion: This data set was defined designed to develop a nationwide prognostic model for predicting ICU mortality and patients' length of stay. This data set opens the door for creating standardized approaches in data collection in the Iranian intensive care unit estimation of resource utility.

Research paper thumbnail of Geospatial epidemiology of hospitalized patients with a positive influenza assay: A nationwide study in Iran, 2016–2018

PLOS ONE, Dec 13, 2022

Introduction Seasonal influenza is a significant public health challenge worldwide. This study ai... more Introduction Seasonal influenza is a significant public health challenge worldwide. This study aimed to investigate the epidemiological characteristics and spatial patterns of severe hospitalized influenza cases confirmed by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) in Iran. Methods Data were obtained from Iran's Ministry of Health and Medical Education and included all hospitalized lab-confirmed influenza cases from January 1, 2016, to December 30, 2018 (n = 9146). The Getis-Ord Gi* and Local Moran's I statistics were used to explore the hotspot areas and spatial cluster/outlier patterns of influenza. We also built a multivariable logistic regression model to identify covariates associated with patients' mortality. Results Cumulative incidence and mortality rate were estimated at 11.44 and 0.49 (per 100,000), respectively, and case fatality rate was estimated at 4.35%. The patients' median age was 40 (interquartile range: 22-63), and 55.5% (n = 5073) were female. The hotspot and cluster analyses revealed high-risk areas in northern parts of Iran, especially in cold, humid, and

Research paper thumbnail of Internal validation and comparison of the prognostic performance of models based on six emergency scoring systems to predict in-hospital mortality in the emergency department

BMC Emergency Medicine, Jun 10, 2021

Background: Medical scoring systems are potentially useful to make optimal use of available resou... more Background: Medical scoring systems are potentially useful to make optimal use of available resources. A variety of models have been developed for illness measurement and stratification of patients in Emergency Departments (EDs). This study was aimed to compare the predictive performance of the following six scoring systems: Simple Clinical Score (SCS), Worthing physiological Score (WPS), Rapid Acute Physiology Score (RAPS), Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (REMS), Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), and Routine Laboratory Data (RLD) to predict inhospital mortality. Methods: A prospective single-center observational study was conducted from March 2016 to March 2017 in Edalatian ED in Emam Reza Hospital, located in the northeast of Iran. All variables needed to calculate the models were recorded at the time of admission and logistic regression was used to develop the models' prediction probabilities. The Area Under the Curve for Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUC-ROC) and Precision-Recall curves (AUC-PR), Brier Score (BS), and calibration plots were used to assess the models' performance. Internal validation was obtained by 1000 bootstrap samples. Pairwise comparison of AUC-ROC was based on the DeLong test.

Research paper thumbnail of PTEN hamartoma tumour syndrome: case report based on data from the Iranian hereditary colorectal cancer registry and literature review

Diagnostic Pathology

Background PTEN hamartoma tumour syndrome (PHTS) is a rare hereditary disorder caused by germline... more Background PTEN hamartoma tumour syndrome (PHTS) is a rare hereditary disorder caused by germline pathogenic mutations in the PTEN gene. This study presents a case of PHTS referred for genetic evaluation due to multiple polyps in the rectosigmoid area, and provides a literature review of PHTS case reports published between March 2010 and March 2022. Case presentation A 39-year-old Iranian female with a family history of gastric cancer in a first-degree relative presented with minimal bright red blood per rectum and resistant dyspepsia. Colonoscopy revealed the presence of over 20 polyps in the rectosigmoid area, while the rest of the colon appeared normal. Further upper endoscopy showed multiple small polyps in the stomach and duodenum, leading to a referral for genetic evaluation of hereditary colorectal polyposis. Whole-exome sequencing led to a PHTS diagnosis, even though the patient displayed no clinical or skin symptoms of the condition. Further screenings identified early-stag...

Research paper thumbnail of Comparing In-Hospital Mortality Prediction by Senior Emergency Resident’s Judgment and Prognostic Models in the Emergency Department

BioMed Research International

Background. A comparison of emergency residents’ judgments and two derivatives of the Sequential ... more Background. A comparison of emergency residents’ judgments and two derivatives of the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), namely, the mSOFA and the qSOFA, was conducted to determine the accuracy of predicting in-hospital mortality among critically ill patients in the emergency department (ED). Methods. A prospective cohort research was performed on patients over 18 years of age presented to the ED. We used logistic regression to develop a model for predicting in-hospital mortality by using qSOFA, mSOFA, and residents’ judgment scores. We compared the accuracy of prognostic models and residents’ judgment in terms of the overall accuracy of the predicted probabilities (Brier score), discrimination (area under the ROC curve), and calibration (calibration graph). Analyses were carried out using R software version R-4.2.0. Results. In the study, 2,205 patients with median age of 64 (IQR: 50-77) years were included. There were no significant differences between the qSOFA (AUC 0.70...

Research paper thumbnail of Geospatial epidemiology of hospitalized patients with a positive influenza assay: A nationwide study in Iran, 2016–2018

PLOS ONE, Dec 13, 2022

Introduction Seasonal influenza is a significant public health challenge worldwide. This study ai... more Introduction Seasonal influenza is a significant public health challenge worldwide. This study aimed to investigate the epidemiological characteristics and spatial patterns of severe hospitalized influenza cases confirmed by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) in Iran. Methods Data were obtained from Iran's Ministry of Health and Medical Education and included all hospitalized lab-confirmed influenza cases from January 1, 2016, to December 30, 2018 (n = 9146). The Getis-Ord Gi* and Local Moran's I statistics were used to explore the hotspot areas and spatial cluster/outlier patterns of influenza. We also built a multivariable logistic regression model to identify covariates associated with patients' mortality. Results Cumulative incidence and mortality rate were estimated at 11.44 and 0.49 (per 100,000), respectively, and case fatality rate was estimated at 4.35%. The patients' median age was 40 (interquartile range: 22-63), and 55.5% (n = 5073) were female. The hotspot and cluster analyses revealed high-risk areas in northern parts of Iran, especially in cold, humid, and

Research paper thumbnail of Internal Validation of the Predictive Performance of Models Based on Three ED and ICU Scoring Systems to Predict Inhospital Mortality for Intensive Care Patients Referred from the Emergency Department

BioMed Research International

Background.A variety of scoring systems have been introduced for use in both the emergency depart... more Background.A variety of scoring systems have been introduced for use in both the emergency department (ED) such as WPS, REMS, and MEWS and the intensive care unit (ICU) such as APACHE II, SAPS II, and SOFA for risk stratification and mortality prediction. However, the performance of these models in the ICU remains unclear and we aimed to evaluate and compare their performance in the ICU. Methods. This multicenter retrospective cohort study was conducted on severely ill patients admitted to the ICU directly from the ED in seven tertiary hospitals in Iran from August 2018 to August 2020. We evaluated all models in terms of discrimination (AUROC), the balance between positive predictive value and sensitivity (AUPRC), calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test and calibration plots), and overall performance using the Brier score (BS). The endpoint was considered inhospital mortality. Results. Among the 3,455 patients included in the study, 54.4% of individuals were male ( N = 1,879 ) and 26.5% d...

Research paper thumbnail of Additional file 1 of Colorectal Cancer in North-Eastern Iran: a retrospective, comparative study of early-onset and late-onset cases based on data from the Iranian hereditary colorectal cancer registry

Research paper thumbnail of Identification of related factors to discharge against medical advice in an emergency department: A cross-sectional study

Majallah-i Dānishkadah-i ̒ulūm-i Pizishkī-i Niyshābūr, 2018

Introduction and Aims: The choice of the patient to leave the hospital before the physician disch... more Introduction and Aims: The choice of the patient to leave the hospital before the physician discharges him is called discharge against medical advice (DAMA). The purpose of this study was to identify the characteristics of patients with DAMA and compare them with non-DAMA patients. Materials and Methods: This cross-sectional study was performed on all the patients discharged from the emergency department of Imam Reza Hospital in Mashhad in 2015. The patients' data were retrieved from their electronic medical records. After pre-processing, the data were finally analyzed using a frequency table and a chi-square test. All analyzes were performed using SPSS Statistics Version 22 software. Results: The total number of the eligible patients in the study was 19,313, of whom 6,993 were discharged against medical advice. The mean age of DAMA patients was 38.1 ± 19.34 years. 57% of DAMA patients were male; and being young, married, and lack of insurance were three major factors associated...

Research paper thumbnail of Internal validation and evaluation of the predictive performance of models based on the PRISM-3 (Pediatric Risk of Mortality) and PIM-3 (Pediatric Index of Mortality) scoring systems for predicting mortality in Pediatric Intensive Care Units (PICUs)

BMC Pediatrics

Purpose The study was aimed to assess the prognostic power The Pediatric Risk of Mortality-3 (PRI... more Purpose The study was aimed to assess the prognostic power The Pediatric Risk of Mortality-3 (PRISM-3) and the Pediatric Index of Mortality-3 (PIM-3) to predict in-hospital mortality in a sample of patients admitted to the PICUs. Design and methods The study was performed to include all children younger than 18 years of age admitted to receive critical care in two hospitals, Mashhad, northeast of Iran from December 2017 to November 2018. The predictive performance was quantified in terms of the overall performance by measuring the Brier Score (BS) and standardized mortality ratio (SMR), discrimination by assessing the AUC, and calibration by applying the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Results A total of 2446 patients with the median age of 4.2 months (56% male) were included in the study. The PICU and in-hospital mortality were 12.4 and 16.14%, respectively. The BS of the PRISM-3 and PIM-3 was 0.088 and 0.093 for PICU mortality and 0.108 and 0.113 for in-hospital mortality. For the entire sa...

Research paper thumbnail of Development of a National Core Dataset for the Iranian ICU Patients Outcome Prediction; a Comprehensive Approach

Journal of Innovation in Health Informatics, Jun 15, 2018

To define a core dataset for ICU Patients Outcome Prediction in Iran. This core data set will lea... more To define a core dataset for ICU Patients Outcome Prediction in Iran. This core data set will lead us to design ICU outcome prediction models with the most effective parameters. A combination of literature review, national survey and expert consensus meetings were used. First, a literature review was performed by a general search in PubMed to find the most appropriate models for intensive care mortality prediction and their parameters. Secondly, in a national survey, experts from a couple of medical centers in all parts of Iran were asked to comment on a list of items retrieved from the earlier literature review study. In the next step, a multi-disciplinary committee of experts was installed. In 4 meetings each data item was examined separately and included/excluded by committee consensus. The combination of the literature review findings and experts' consensus resulted in a draft dataset including 26 data items. 92% percent of data items in the draft dataset were retrieved fro...

Research paper thumbnail of Colorectal Cancer in North-Eastern Iran: a retrospective, comparative study of early-onset and late-onset cases based on data from the Iranian hereditary colorectal cancer registry

BMC Cancer

Background The incidence rate of colorectal cancer (CRC) is increasing among patients below 50 ye... more Background The incidence rate of colorectal cancer (CRC) is increasing among patients below 50 years of age. The reason for this is unclear, but could have to do with the fact that indicative variables, such as tumour location, gender preference and genetic preponderance have not been followed up in a consistent mann er. The current study was primarily conducted to improve the hereditary CRC screening programme by assessing the demographic and clinicopathological characteristics of early-onset CRC compared to late-onset CRC in northeast Iran. Methods This retrospective study, carried out over a three-year follow-up period (2014–2017), included 562 consecutive CRCs diagnosed in three Mashhad city hospital laboratories in north-eastern Iran. We applied comparative analysis of pathological and hereditary features together with information on the presence of mismatch repair (MMR) gene deficiency with respect to recovery versus mortality. Patients with mutations resulting in absence of t...