Geoffroy Guepie | University Of Pau (original) (raw)

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Papers by Geoffroy Guepie

Economic analysis of the EU's CBAM on African countries ix Expansion of the CBAM x Implications f... more Economic analysis of the EU's CBAM on African countries ix Expansion of the CBAM x Implications for least developed countries x Legal analysis of the EU's CBAM on African countries xi Legal implications of the CBAM under the WTO xi Strategic considerations xii Leveraging the TRIPS Agreement to facilitate access of African countries to ESTs xii Enforceability of climate finance obligations under the Paris Agreement and the WTO xii Country-level implications Disaggregated Scenario A: Limited CBAM coverage with a carbon price of €87 per tonne

LSE Press eBooks, May 15, 2023

This article puts into question the use of the gravity equation to analyze Regional Trade Agreeme... more This article puts into question the use of the gravity equation to analyze Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) in Africa. By surveying the eld qualitatively and quantitatively (via a meta-analysis) and by leading our own estimations (with bilateral xed eects, exportertime and importer-time eects) on dierent trade ow databases (UN COMTRADE, DOTS and BACI), we nd that the RTAs elasticity of trade in Africa are unreliable due to their unrealistic high level. By introducing intranational trade and bilateral trends into the regression specication, we show that the coecient of RTAs in Africa are either not signicant or drastically reduced. Only COMESA is still significant. We then use a simple general equilibrium model to compare the results obtained with these new elasticities regarding the terms of trade and welfare for members of the COMESA. We nd strong trade * UPPA E2S, TREE, France.

Economics of transition and institutional change, Aug 11, 2021

We use detailed information on the location of agricultural and mining production to approximate ... more We use detailed information on the location of agricultural and mining production to approximate international trade for dierent ethnic groups in order to study its impact on ethnic conicts in Africa between 1993 and 2010. The goal is to go beyond the income eects of trade to study the residual eects of globalization on conicts. We nd that once we control for income but also for a wide variety of dierent factors in conicts (using political variables and xed eects), the international trade by ethnic groups has a pacic impact on conicts. While this peaceful impact of trade is mainly found in the trade in agricultural products, it does not have a signicant impact in the international trade in mining products. Finally, we propose an original two-step analysis showing that exports signicantly reduce conicts by aecting time-varying national characteristics. We interpret this result as an indication that globalization in Africa has participated in the formation of new national identities with peaceful eects between ethnic groups.

Research Papers in Economics, Jun 10, 2021

Cette these vise a contribuer aux recents debats sur les avantages potentiels de l'ouverture ... more Cette these vise a contribuer aux recents debats sur les avantages potentiels de l'ouverture commerciale entre les pays Africains. Elle le fait en abordant la triptyque Accords Regionaux de Commerce(ACRs), bien-etre et conflits.Le continent Africain fait face aujourd’hui a deux enjeux majeurs de gouvernance : l’integration regionale et la gestion des conflits armes. En effet, les performances commerciales des pays africains restent toujours marginales comparativement au reste du monde. Et ce, malgre les differentes politiques commerciales mises en œuvre depuis les annees 70 (politique d'import-substitution, accord regional nord-sud, etc.…). Parmi ces politiques commerciales, les gouvernements Africains ont decide de privilegier les accords regionaux en vu d’accroitre le commerce entre les pays membres. Ces accords ont-ils eu l'effet escompte ? Dans quelle mesure ?Si on se refere au point de vue largement partage, la reponse semble etre negative. Cependant cette reponse i...

Cette thèse vise à contribuer aux récents débats sur les avantages potentiels de l'ouverture ... more Cette thèse vise à contribuer aux récents débats sur les avantages potentiels de l'ouverture commerciale entre les pays Africains. Elle le fait en abordant la triptyque Accords Régionaux de Commerce(ACRs), bien-être et conflits.Le continent Africain fait face aujourd’hui à deux enjeux majeurs de gouvernance : l’intégration régionale et la gestion des conflits armés. En effet, les performances commerciales des pays africains restent toujours marginales comparativement au reste du monde. Et ce, malgré les différentes politiques commerciales mises en œuvre depuis les années 70 (politique d'import-substitution, accord régional nord-sud, etc.…). Parmi ces politiques commerciales, les gouvernements Africains ont décidé de privilégier les accords régionaux en vu d’accroître le commerce entre les pays membres. Ces accords ont-ils eu l'effet escompté ? Dans quelle mesure ?Si on se réfère au point de vue largement partagé, la réponse semble être négative. Cependant cette réponse i...

Despite the marginalization of Africa in the world trade system, this article shows that African ... more Despite the marginalization of Africa in the world trade system, this article shows that African Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) ushered an era of economic integration with strong trade creation effects over the period 1965-2012. Some agreements failed to deliver the expected trade gains, but the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) have signicantly increased trade between members. Based on this analysis, a simple quantitative trade model is used (Arkolakis et al. 2012) to compare trade and welfare with and without these agreements. These counterfactual exercises show that RTAs have strongly affected trade costs, multilateral resistances and finally trade flows but with small effects on welfare.

We use detailed information on the location of agricultural and mining production to approximate ... more We use detailed information on the location of agricultural and mining production to approximate international trade for different ethnic groups to study its impact on ethnic conflicts in Africa between 1993 and 2010. The goal is to go beyond the income effects of trade (measured by nightlights data and climate variables at the ethnic level) to study the residual effects of trade on conflicts. We find that once we control for income but also for a wide varieties of different factors of conflicts (using political variables and fixed effects), the international trade of ethnic groups still has an impact on conflict and this effect is pacifying. This peaceful impact of trade is mainly found for trade in agricultural products, international trade in mining products is not significant. Finally, we propose an original two-step analysis showing that exports significantly reduce conflict by affecting time-varying national characteristics. We interpret this result as an indication that globa...

From birth to death in the 1970s, to rebirth in the 2000s, the East African Community (EAC) had s... more From birth to death in the 1970s, to rebirth in the 2000s, the East African Community (EAC) had several lives. What were the economic consequences of this regional trade agreement? This paper shows that the former EAC was ine?cient in term of trade creation while on the contrary the current one has increased trade by 75%. These results are obtained with a structural gravity equation with importer-year, exporter-year e?ects and bilateral ?xed e?ects. To assess the global e?ect of the EAC, including trade diversion and general equilibrium e?ects, we then use a multi-sector and multi-country model. We ?nd that despite trade creation, the total welfare gains of the EAC is small for most countries. All members endured a depreciation of the terms of trade, trade diversion and a decrease in real wages at the exception of Kenya.

LSE Press eBooks, May 15, 2023

Economics of transition and institutional change, Aug 11, 2021

Research Papers in Economics, Jun 10, 2021

We use detailed information on the location of agricultural and mining production to approximate ... more We use detailed information on the location of agricultural and mining production to approximate international trade for different ethnic groups to study its impact on ethnic conflicts in Africa between 1993 and 2010. The goal is to go beyond the income effects of trade (measured by nightlights data and climate variables at the ethnic level) to study the residual effects of trade on conflicts. We find that once we control for income but also for a wide varieties of different factors of conflicts (using political variables and fixed effects), the international trade of ethnic groups still has an impact on conflict and this effect is pacifying. This peaceful impact of trade is mainly found for trade in agricultural products, international trade in mining products is not significant. Finally, we propose an original two-step analysis showing that exports significantly reduce conflict by affecting time-varying national characteristics. We interpret this result as an indication that globa...