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Papers by Ziya Öniş

Research paper thumbnail of Debating “Peace” in the Emerging Post Western Order Ziya Öniş – Global Panorama

Research paper thumbnail of Bounded Identities Selective Humanitarianism as a Central Moral Dilemma of Our Times - Ziya Öniş – Global Panorama

Research paper thumbnail of Middle Powers Between the West and the "Rest": Turkey During the Russian War on Ukraine

Uluslararası İlişkiler /International Relations, 2025

Turkey is a middle power that has been illustrating proactive foreign policy over the last decade... more Turkey is a middle power that has been illustrating proactive foreign policy over the last decades with a strong motivation for "strategic autonomy." Turkish foreign policy during the Russian invasion of Ukraine is an interesting case in which to examine and understand the role of middle powers in the changing international order. Especially in the context of widening gaps between the geopolitical positioning of the West, led by the United States and the European Union, and the "Rest," increasingly represented by BRICS economies, many countries are struggling in between. The paper highlights the positioning of Turkey during the Russian War on Ukraine and argues that it is much closer to those of major BRICS and most countries in the "Global South" than its traditional Western Allies. We argue that the reasons that enabled Turkey to maneuver such proactive foreign policy during the War can be explained by the intertwined effect of the manifestation of "strategic autonomy" in the decision-making, highly centralized populist leadership at home, and the growing room at the international and the regional environment for middle power activism.

Research paper thumbnail of The Second Trump Era: The Quest for American Hegemony Without Leadership -Ziya Öniş

Panorama Global, 2025

The second Trump presidency has started in a more dramatic fashion than the first one. What Trump... more The second Trump presidency has started in a more dramatic fashion than the first one. What Trump has accomplished in the early weeks of the new era has effectively dismantled any notion of American leadership for a liberal international order based on liberal norms and democratic values. The Trumpian world is predicated on the exercise of unrestrained power and self-interest. Trump's "America First" strategy does not mean a retreat of the United States from the global arena to focus on domestic issues such as unemployment, migration, and industrial regeneration. Rather, it signifies a new kind of foreign policy activism based on self-interest completely devoid of any moral or humanitarian concern. The underlying logic of Trump's foreign policy is ultratransactionalism, deal-making, and a complete dismissal of small powers.

Research paper thumbnail of Governance Crises and Resilience of Authoritarian Populism: 2023 Turkish Elections from the Perspective of Hirschman's ' Exit, Voice, and Loyalty'

Southeast European and Black Sea Studies, 2024

The May 2023 elections in Turkey are puzzling because public support for President Erdoğan did no... more The May 2023 elections in Turkey are puzzling because public support for President Erdoğan did not erode despite political-economic failures of considerable magnitude. The economy was ailing, the government's performance in containing natural disasters was dismal, and oscillations in foreign policy were perplexing. Yet, Erdoğan managed to win elections once again, giving him the mandate to continue ruling the country over the next five years. What explains this political outcome in the face of 'multiple governance crises'? We adopt Albert O. Hirschman's 'exit, voice, and loyalty' framework to explain the multiple but interrelated sources of the resilience of authoritarian populism in Turkey. We suggest the 'exit, voice, and loyalty' equilibrium in the 2023 Turkish elections requires an integrated analysis along two dimensions, each interacting with and mutually reinforcing the other: the economy-identity nexus and the domestic-external nexus.

Research paper thumbnail of A Critical Juncture: Russia, Ukraine and the Global South

Research paper thumbnail of Röportaj: ABD-Çin rekabetinde " küresel güney" kilit rol mü oynuyor?

Koç Holding Bizden Haberler Dergisi, 2023

BD ve Çin arasındaki mücadelenin ön plana çıktığı yeni küresel politik ve ekonomik resimde, üç ay... more BD ve Çin arasındaki mücadelenin ön plana çıktığı yeni küresel politik ve ekonomik resimde, üç ayrı kutuptan söz etmek mümkün. Bir tarafta ilişkileri sıkılaşan Rusya-Çin, bir tarafta ABD-Avrupa, diğer tarafta da Hindistan, Pakistan ve Türkiye gibi ülkelerin de aralarında bulunduğu, "Küresel Güney" olarak adlandırılan, gelişmekte olan ülkeler konumlanıyor. Koç Üniversitesi Uluslararası İlişkiler Bölümü Öğretim Üyesi Prof. Dr. Ziya Öniş ile küresel pandemi ve Rusya'nın Ukrayna'ya saldırısı derken ABD-Çin ekseninde değişen dünya düzenini konuştuk. 2022'deki G20 zirvesinde Biden-Jinping görüşmesi sonrası belli bir düzleme oturtulan ilişkiler, Şubat 2023'te ortaya çıkan casus balon kriziyle yeniden gerildi ve ABD Dışişleri Bakanı Antony Blinken'ın Pekin'e yapacağı geziyi iptal etmesiyle sonuçlandı. Rusya-Çin görüşmesiyle dış politika ısındı. ABD-Çin ilişkilerinde neler oluyor? Tarihsel bir perspektifle bakarsak, 2000'lerin başından itibaren dünya ekonomisinde Çin'in çok ciddi bir yükselişi var. Çin'in dışa açılma, dünya ekonomisine entegre olma süreci, 1970'lerin sonunda, 1980'lerin başında başlıyor. Çin'in yükselişinin ivme kazanması 2000'li yıllarda oluyor. 2008-2009 küresel finans krizi de "Batı" ile yükselen ekonomiler arasındaki dengeyi daha da değiştiriyor. Çin daha da güçlenmeye başlıyor. Zaten 2008-2009 yılları bir dönüm noktası; artık G20 önem kazanmaya başlıyor. Küresel G20'ye baktığınız zaman içinde G7 ülkeleri de var. Ama G7'nin dışında yükselen ülkeler ilk defa ciddi bir şekilde temsil edilmeye başlıyor. Bunların arasında Türkiye de var. 2013'te Şi Jinping'in Çin Devlet Başkanı olması da bir başka önemli dönüm noktası. Şi aslında o zamana kadar temkinli bir şekilde yükselen Çin'i önemli bir aktör olarak gündeme getirmeye başlıyor. Çin artık kendini sadece yükselen bir güç olarak değil, ABD ile rekabet edebilecek, ileride hegemon olabilecek bir ülke olarak görüyor. Bu nedenle Şi Jinping dönemi çok önemli. 2013 yılında başlayan ve 2014-2015 itibarı ile Çin'i daha görünür kılan Çin'in mega projesi İpek Yolu Projesi'nden söz etmek gerek. Artık Çin, kendini çok daha özgüvenli bir lider ülke konumunda görüyor. Çin'in yükselişinden giderek rahatsız olan bir ABD var. Donald Trump'ın başkanlık döneminde ilk defa Çin'e karşı ciddi birtakım yaptırımlar, korumacılık eylemleri uygulanmaya başlıyor. Biden yönetimi, Trump yönetiminden oldukça farklı birçok konuda ama mesela Çin'e karşı tutum, Çin'i sınırlama stratejisi ve korumacılığın devamı açısından aslında bir süreklilik arz ediyor. Son yıllarda giderek artan ticaret ve teknoloji alanında bir rekabet görüyoruz. Ek olarak son dönemde ciddi jeopolitik tansiyon artışları ve özellikle Tayvan üzerinden de sıcak bir çatışma olma ihtimali ortaya çıkıyor. Artık rahatlıkla yeni bir "Soğuk Savaş" döneminde olduğumuzu söyleyebiliriz. Burada bir dönüm noktası da Rusya'nın Ukrayna'ya saldırısı. Bu savaş, Batı bloğunda bir birleşmeye neden oldu. Bunu uluslararası hukukun ihlali olarak gördüler. NATO'nun tekrar bir canlanma sürecinden geçtiğini görüyoruz. Daha önce sorunlar yaşayan Avrupa Birliği-ABD ilişkilerinde bir toparlanma oldu. Fakat aynı zamanda da Rusya'yla Çin daha da yakınlaştı. Çin, Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı'nın en büyük kazananı. Çin, bu süreçten güçlenerek çıktı. Savaş, Rusya'yı da bir miktar zayıflattı.

Research paper thumbnail of The West versus the Rest: The Russian Invasion of Ukraine and the Crisis of the "Post-Western" Order

Transatlantic Policy Quarterly, 2023

Research paper thumbnail of Turkey's New Presidential Regime: Fragility, Resilience, Reversibility

Reflektif: Journal of Social Sciences, 2023

Turkey's forthcoming general election of June 2023 is likely to prove a crucial turning point in ... more Turkey's forthcoming general election of June 2023 is likely to prove a crucial turning point in the country's political trajectory. Depending on the outcome of the election, Turkey may find itself on the path of democratic renewal or further consolidation or deepening of the existing competitive authoritarian regime. The paper presents a critical account of the last four years under the new presidential regime and tries to locate the Turkish experience in the broader debate on varieties of right-wing populism. A central hypothesis is that the ongoing economic crisis has, to a certain extent, undermined the popularity of the AKP and the governing coalition. At the same time, we should not underestimate the resilience of the ruling coalition in the face of continued economic growth and the importance of additional dynamics such as the role of identity politics and domestic politics-foreign policy interactions. Öz 2023 Haziran'da gerçekleşecek Cumhurbaşkanlığı Seçimleri ve Genel Seçimler, Türkiye'nin siyasi gidişatı için çok önemli bir dönüm noktası olma potansiyeline sahip. Türkiye, seçim sonuçlarına bağlı olarak, kendisini demokrasinin yeniden inşa edildiği veya var olan rekabetçi otoriter rejimin daha da konsolide olduğu ve derinleştiği bir senaryoyla karşı karşıya bulabilir. Bu makale, yeni başkanlık sistemi altında geçen son dört yılın kritik bir değerlendirmesini yaparken aynı zamanda Türkiye'nin deneyimini genel anlamdaki sağ popülizm tartışmaları çerçevesinde anlamlandırmaya çalışıyor. Ana hipoteze göre devam eden ekonomik kriz, belirli bir ölçüde, AKP'nin ve Cumhur İttifakı'nın halk içerisindeki popülerliğini zayıflattı. Diğer bir taraftan, yönetimdeki koalisyonun ekonomik büyümenin devamlılığını sağlamasıyla beraber kimlik politikaları ve iç politika-dış politika etkileşimi gibi farklı dinamiklerde gösterdiği direnç, seçim öncesi dikkate alınması gereken unsurları oluşturuyor.

Research paper thumbnail of Historic missed opportunities and prospects for renewal: Turkey-EU relations in a Post-Western world

Turkish Studies, 2023

Turkish-European Union (EU) relations in the broader context of the transatlantic alliance have b... more Turkish-European Union (EU) relations in the broader context of the transatlantic alliance have been one of the defining features of Turkish foreign policy in the postwar era. The article identifies elements of the cyclical nature of the relationship and missed opportunities, notably in the 1970s and the early 2000s, which have been costly both to Turkey and the EU. Domestic politics and crises both in Turkey and the EU have played an important role in shaping the long-term dynamics of this complex and mutually important relationship. The emerging post-Western order has contributed to the decline and recent stalemate in Turkey-EU relations. The article probes into the possibilities of a revival in Turkey-EU relations and consider whether the Russian war against Ukraine will create a new opportunity for a revival of the relationship as part of a new wave of enlargement, which was not on the agenda previously.

Figure 1. GDP per Capita Income of Turkey, Portugal, Greece and Spain, (Current USD). Source: The World Bank.

Research paper thumbnail of Liberal Democracy on the Edge? Anxieties in a Shifting Global (dis) order

Alternatives: Global, Local, Political, 2022

The future of liberal democracy appears to be uncertain. This article develops a holistic approac... more The future of liberal democracy appears to be uncertain. This article develops a holistic approach to examine the prospects of liberal democracy by focusing on how three main regime types-that is, "established democratic regimes," "hybrid regimes," and "established authoritarian regimes"-interact with each other. We argue structural global political economy trends, which largely created the current authoritarian populist tide, remain strong despite signs of democratic renewal emerged with the recent new green Keynesian turn in established Western democracies, a more unified transatlantic response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and growing political-economic fragility of key hybrid regimes ruled by authoritarian populist leaders. Also, the resilience of various types of autocracies which co-exist and reinforce one another through economic linkages and political coalitions should not be underestimated, especially demonstrative effects of the Russia-China partnership. Both democratic and authoritarian forms of capitalism face serious problems of income and wealth inequality, raising challenges over "performance legitimacy" in both regime types. In this context, the performance and political-economic orientation of hybrid regimes will have a crucial bearing on the fortunes of liberal democracy on a global scale.

Research paper thumbnail of Turkey's Encounter with Neo-liberal Reforms and the Logic of Washington Consensus, 1980-1990

Political Economy of Development in Turkey, edited by Emre Özçelik and Yonca Özdemir, 2022

The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this p... more The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Research paper thumbnail of Turkish Foreign Policy in Flux: The Traditional Alignments with the West versus the NewEastern Orientation

BATAS Turkish Area Studies Review, 2021

Research paper thumbnail of Understanding oscillations in Turkish foreign policy: pathways to unusual middle power activism

Third World Quarterly, 2021

The conventional literature on the role of middle powers emphasises the importance of soft power,... more The conventional literature on the role of middle powers emphasises the importance of soft power, niche diplomacy and coalition building. This article explores a case of unusual middle power activism with a focus on recent Turkish foreign policy behaviour. It demonstrates how the interaction of domestic politics and external dynamics produced an unusual degree of foreign policy activism, going well beyond conventional middle power behaviour, with the government increasingly employing coercive diplomacy and militaristic methods. We demonstrate that unusual middle power activism in a shifting international order yielded 'populist dividends' to the ruling elite in the short run but led to a 'triple governance crisis' in the economy, politics and foreign policy, with each element feeding into the others in a path-dependent fashion.

Research paper thumbnail of An Emerging Partnership in a Post-Western World ?: The Political Economy of China-Turkey Relations

South East European and Black Sea Studies, 2021

The present paper aims to explain the newly found momentum in the China-Turkey relationship over ... more The present paper aims to explain the newly found momentum in the China-Turkey relationship over the course of the past decade. Attention is given to two interlocking processes involving global dynamics and domestic politics in Turkey in a rapidly shifting international context. At the global level, significant power shifts away from the West and the growing global reach and assertiveness of China during the Xi Jinping era have played an important role. At the domestic level, profound power shifts and attempts to consolidate a new and yet fragile political-economic model associated with a highly centralized and authoritarian presidential system have emerged as crucial factors. Our central point is that the China-Turkey partnership embodies an important political dimension that goes beyond a narrow economic partnership. Given the inherently political nature of the relationship, the future path of the China-Turkey partnership will depend crucially on Turkey's domestic political trajectory over the next decade.

Research paper thumbnail of Turkish foreign policy in a post-western order: strategic autonomy or new forms of dependence

International Affairs, 2021

* We would like to thank the International Affairs editorial team and anonymous referees. This ar... more * We would like to thank the International Affairs editorial team and anonymous referees. This article is a product of a collaborative project on Turkish foreign policy involving LSE and Koç University. The original workshop was held in Istanbul in February 2020. We would like to thank Chris Alden, Katerina Dalacoura, Şuhnaz Yilmaz and Buğra Süsler for their encouragement and valuable criticisms. We are grateful to Elodie Brun,

The export/import ratio in Turkey’s trade with the BRICS grouping was around 18 per cent in 2020, compared to 95 per cent for trade with the EU. As t Ss a t t he trade deficit is a chronic concern, and the BRICS hip are openly questioned. EU membership is no nd the customs union deal is politically asymmet he European Commission, a growing source of d countries represented most of Turkey’s total trade deficit in 2020, the balanced nature of Turkey—EU trade relations remains significant. Nonetheless, the terms of the EU—Turkey partner- onger a serious possibility, ric. Turkey has no role in EU decision-making on trade policy but has to comply with the decisions of isappointment for Turkish policy-makers. Strategic autonomy, in this context, has become a byword for he step-by-step institutionalization of a transactionalist turn in the Turkey-EU partnership. Despite the unfavourable trends, thoug likely to continue, given the complex interdependence between the two sides. y g p Pp h, functional cooperation is

Research paper thumbnail of Röportaj-Sosyal Bilimciler Konuşuyor: Prof. Dr. Ziya Öniş

İktisat ve Toplum, No: 125, 2021

Research paper thumbnail of The anatomy of Turkey's new heterodox crisis: the interplay of domestic politics and global dynamics

Turkish Studies, 2020

A decade after the global financial turmoil, a new wave of crises is haunting the global South. T... more A decade after the global financial turmoil, a new wave of crises is haunting the global South. This pattern is different from previous crisis episodes. Powerful shifts in the international order provide new policy space for emerging powers to manage their economic problems in a heterodox fashion. Key Western-led institutions no longer enjoy a monopoly in dictating the terms of financial assistance for countries in economic difficulty, as non-Western powers increasingly challenge the orthodox Washington Consensus paradigm. The present paper attempts to locate Turkey's ongoing economic crisis in a comparative-historical context. Its central argument posits that the current crisis is the reflection of a fragile and unconsolidated presidential system and its associated mode of economic governance with state capitalist features. Turkey's heterodox crisis allows us to draw attention to the complex interplay of global power transitions in a post-liberal international order and domestic political constellations during an era of growing authoritarian populism, generating a new equilibrium with rather unique features.

Research paper thumbnail of Otoriter Kapitalizmin Yükselişi: Değişen Küresel Dengeler ve Demokrasinin Geleceği Üzerine

İktisat ve Toplum Dergisi No. 120, 2020

Günümüzdeki hegemonik dönüşüm, bir güç geçişinden daha fazlasını ifade ediyor; yeniden yapılanmak... more Günümüzdeki hegemonik dönüşüm, bir güç geçişinden daha fazlasını ifade ediyor; yeniden yapılanmakta olan küreselleşme süreci çok-düzenli ve parçalı bir uluslararası sistemin ortaya çıkış evresini oluşturuyor.

Research paper thumbnail of INTL 313 Syllabus Fall 2020 Öniş

Research paper thumbnail of Debating “Peace” in the Emerging Post Western Order Ziya Öniş – Global Panorama

Research paper thumbnail of Bounded Identities Selective Humanitarianism as a Central Moral Dilemma of Our Times - Ziya Öniş – Global Panorama

Research paper thumbnail of Middle Powers Between the West and the "Rest": Turkey During the Russian War on Ukraine

Uluslararası İlişkiler /International Relations, 2025

Turkey is a middle power that has been illustrating proactive foreign policy over the last decade... more Turkey is a middle power that has been illustrating proactive foreign policy over the last decades with a strong motivation for "strategic autonomy." Turkish foreign policy during the Russian invasion of Ukraine is an interesting case in which to examine and understand the role of middle powers in the changing international order. Especially in the context of widening gaps between the geopolitical positioning of the West, led by the United States and the European Union, and the "Rest," increasingly represented by BRICS economies, many countries are struggling in between. The paper highlights the positioning of Turkey during the Russian War on Ukraine and argues that it is much closer to those of major BRICS and most countries in the "Global South" than its traditional Western Allies. We argue that the reasons that enabled Turkey to maneuver such proactive foreign policy during the War can be explained by the intertwined effect of the manifestation of "strategic autonomy" in the decision-making, highly centralized populist leadership at home, and the growing room at the international and the regional environment for middle power activism.

Research paper thumbnail of The Second Trump Era: The Quest for American Hegemony Without Leadership -Ziya Öniş

Panorama Global, 2025

The second Trump presidency has started in a more dramatic fashion than the first one. What Trump... more The second Trump presidency has started in a more dramatic fashion than the first one. What Trump has accomplished in the early weeks of the new era has effectively dismantled any notion of American leadership for a liberal international order based on liberal norms and democratic values. The Trumpian world is predicated on the exercise of unrestrained power and self-interest. Trump's "America First" strategy does not mean a retreat of the United States from the global arena to focus on domestic issues such as unemployment, migration, and industrial regeneration. Rather, it signifies a new kind of foreign policy activism based on self-interest completely devoid of any moral or humanitarian concern. The underlying logic of Trump's foreign policy is ultratransactionalism, deal-making, and a complete dismissal of small powers.

Research paper thumbnail of Governance Crises and Resilience of Authoritarian Populism: 2023 Turkish Elections from the Perspective of Hirschman's ' Exit, Voice, and Loyalty'

Southeast European and Black Sea Studies, 2024

The May 2023 elections in Turkey are puzzling because public support for President Erdoğan did no... more The May 2023 elections in Turkey are puzzling because public support for President Erdoğan did not erode despite political-economic failures of considerable magnitude. The economy was ailing, the government's performance in containing natural disasters was dismal, and oscillations in foreign policy were perplexing. Yet, Erdoğan managed to win elections once again, giving him the mandate to continue ruling the country over the next five years. What explains this political outcome in the face of 'multiple governance crises'? We adopt Albert O. Hirschman's 'exit, voice, and loyalty' framework to explain the multiple but interrelated sources of the resilience of authoritarian populism in Turkey. We suggest the 'exit, voice, and loyalty' equilibrium in the 2023 Turkish elections requires an integrated analysis along two dimensions, each interacting with and mutually reinforcing the other: the economy-identity nexus and the domestic-external nexus.

Research paper thumbnail of A Critical Juncture: Russia, Ukraine and the Global South

Research paper thumbnail of Röportaj: ABD-Çin rekabetinde " küresel güney" kilit rol mü oynuyor?

Koç Holding Bizden Haberler Dergisi, 2023

BD ve Çin arasındaki mücadelenin ön plana çıktığı yeni küresel politik ve ekonomik resimde, üç ay... more BD ve Çin arasındaki mücadelenin ön plana çıktığı yeni küresel politik ve ekonomik resimde, üç ayrı kutuptan söz etmek mümkün. Bir tarafta ilişkileri sıkılaşan Rusya-Çin, bir tarafta ABD-Avrupa, diğer tarafta da Hindistan, Pakistan ve Türkiye gibi ülkelerin de aralarında bulunduğu, "Küresel Güney" olarak adlandırılan, gelişmekte olan ülkeler konumlanıyor. Koç Üniversitesi Uluslararası İlişkiler Bölümü Öğretim Üyesi Prof. Dr. Ziya Öniş ile küresel pandemi ve Rusya'nın Ukrayna'ya saldırısı derken ABD-Çin ekseninde değişen dünya düzenini konuştuk. 2022'deki G20 zirvesinde Biden-Jinping görüşmesi sonrası belli bir düzleme oturtulan ilişkiler, Şubat 2023'te ortaya çıkan casus balon kriziyle yeniden gerildi ve ABD Dışişleri Bakanı Antony Blinken'ın Pekin'e yapacağı geziyi iptal etmesiyle sonuçlandı. Rusya-Çin görüşmesiyle dış politika ısındı. ABD-Çin ilişkilerinde neler oluyor? Tarihsel bir perspektifle bakarsak, 2000'lerin başından itibaren dünya ekonomisinde Çin'in çok ciddi bir yükselişi var. Çin'in dışa açılma, dünya ekonomisine entegre olma süreci, 1970'lerin sonunda, 1980'lerin başında başlıyor. Çin'in yükselişinin ivme kazanması 2000'li yıllarda oluyor. 2008-2009 küresel finans krizi de "Batı" ile yükselen ekonomiler arasındaki dengeyi daha da değiştiriyor. Çin daha da güçlenmeye başlıyor. Zaten 2008-2009 yılları bir dönüm noktası; artık G20 önem kazanmaya başlıyor. Küresel G20'ye baktığınız zaman içinde G7 ülkeleri de var. Ama G7'nin dışında yükselen ülkeler ilk defa ciddi bir şekilde temsil edilmeye başlıyor. Bunların arasında Türkiye de var. 2013'te Şi Jinping'in Çin Devlet Başkanı olması da bir başka önemli dönüm noktası. Şi aslında o zamana kadar temkinli bir şekilde yükselen Çin'i önemli bir aktör olarak gündeme getirmeye başlıyor. Çin artık kendini sadece yükselen bir güç olarak değil, ABD ile rekabet edebilecek, ileride hegemon olabilecek bir ülke olarak görüyor. Bu nedenle Şi Jinping dönemi çok önemli. 2013 yılında başlayan ve 2014-2015 itibarı ile Çin'i daha görünür kılan Çin'in mega projesi İpek Yolu Projesi'nden söz etmek gerek. Artık Çin, kendini çok daha özgüvenli bir lider ülke konumunda görüyor. Çin'in yükselişinden giderek rahatsız olan bir ABD var. Donald Trump'ın başkanlık döneminde ilk defa Çin'e karşı ciddi birtakım yaptırımlar, korumacılık eylemleri uygulanmaya başlıyor. Biden yönetimi, Trump yönetiminden oldukça farklı birçok konuda ama mesela Çin'e karşı tutum, Çin'i sınırlama stratejisi ve korumacılığın devamı açısından aslında bir süreklilik arz ediyor. Son yıllarda giderek artan ticaret ve teknoloji alanında bir rekabet görüyoruz. Ek olarak son dönemde ciddi jeopolitik tansiyon artışları ve özellikle Tayvan üzerinden de sıcak bir çatışma olma ihtimali ortaya çıkıyor. Artık rahatlıkla yeni bir "Soğuk Savaş" döneminde olduğumuzu söyleyebiliriz. Burada bir dönüm noktası da Rusya'nın Ukrayna'ya saldırısı. Bu savaş, Batı bloğunda bir birleşmeye neden oldu. Bunu uluslararası hukukun ihlali olarak gördüler. NATO'nun tekrar bir canlanma sürecinden geçtiğini görüyoruz. Daha önce sorunlar yaşayan Avrupa Birliği-ABD ilişkilerinde bir toparlanma oldu. Fakat aynı zamanda da Rusya'yla Çin daha da yakınlaştı. Çin, Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı'nın en büyük kazananı. Çin, bu süreçten güçlenerek çıktı. Savaş, Rusya'yı da bir miktar zayıflattı.

Research paper thumbnail of The West versus the Rest: The Russian Invasion of Ukraine and the Crisis of the "Post-Western" Order

Transatlantic Policy Quarterly, 2023

Research paper thumbnail of Turkey's New Presidential Regime: Fragility, Resilience, Reversibility

Reflektif: Journal of Social Sciences, 2023

Turkey's forthcoming general election of June 2023 is likely to prove a crucial turning point in ... more Turkey's forthcoming general election of June 2023 is likely to prove a crucial turning point in the country's political trajectory. Depending on the outcome of the election, Turkey may find itself on the path of democratic renewal or further consolidation or deepening of the existing competitive authoritarian regime. The paper presents a critical account of the last four years under the new presidential regime and tries to locate the Turkish experience in the broader debate on varieties of right-wing populism. A central hypothesis is that the ongoing economic crisis has, to a certain extent, undermined the popularity of the AKP and the governing coalition. At the same time, we should not underestimate the resilience of the ruling coalition in the face of continued economic growth and the importance of additional dynamics such as the role of identity politics and domestic politics-foreign policy interactions. Öz 2023 Haziran'da gerçekleşecek Cumhurbaşkanlığı Seçimleri ve Genel Seçimler, Türkiye'nin siyasi gidişatı için çok önemli bir dönüm noktası olma potansiyeline sahip. Türkiye, seçim sonuçlarına bağlı olarak, kendisini demokrasinin yeniden inşa edildiği veya var olan rekabetçi otoriter rejimin daha da konsolide olduğu ve derinleştiği bir senaryoyla karşı karşıya bulabilir. Bu makale, yeni başkanlık sistemi altında geçen son dört yılın kritik bir değerlendirmesini yaparken aynı zamanda Türkiye'nin deneyimini genel anlamdaki sağ popülizm tartışmaları çerçevesinde anlamlandırmaya çalışıyor. Ana hipoteze göre devam eden ekonomik kriz, belirli bir ölçüde, AKP'nin ve Cumhur İttifakı'nın halk içerisindeki popülerliğini zayıflattı. Diğer bir taraftan, yönetimdeki koalisyonun ekonomik büyümenin devamlılığını sağlamasıyla beraber kimlik politikaları ve iç politika-dış politika etkileşimi gibi farklı dinamiklerde gösterdiği direnç, seçim öncesi dikkate alınması gereken unsurları oluşturuyor.

Research paper thumbnail of Historic missed opportunities and prospects for renewal: Turkey-EU relations in a Post-Western world

Turkish Studies, 2023

Turkish-European Union (EU) relations in the broader context of the transatlantic alliance have b... more Turkish-European Union (EU) relations in the broader context of the transatlantic alliance have been one of the defining features of Turkish foreign policy in the postwar era. The article identifies elements of the cyclical nature of the relationship and missed opportunities, notably in the 1970s and the early 2000s, which have been costly both to Turkey and the EU. Domestic politics and crises both in Turkey and the EU have played an important role in shaping the long-term dynamics of this complex and mutually important relationship. The emerging post-Western order has contributed to the decline and recent stalemate in Turkey-EU relations. The article probes into the possibilities of a revival in Turkey-EU relations and consider whether the Russian war against Ukraine will create a new opportunity for a revival of the relationship as part of a new wave of enlargement, which was not on the agenda previously.

Figure 1. GDP per Capita Income of Turkey, Portugal, Greece and Spain, (Current USD). Source: The World Bank.

Research paper thumbnail of Liberal Democracy on the Edge? Anxieties in a Shifting Global (dis) order

Alternatives: Global, Local, Political, 2022

The future of liberal democracy appears to be uncertain. This article develops a holistic approac... more The future of liberal democracy appears to be uncertain. This article develops a holistic approach to examine the prospects of liberal democracy by focusing on how three main regime types-that is, "established democratic regimes," "hybrid regimes," and "established authoritarian regimes"-interact with each other. We argue structural global political economy trends, which largely created the current authoritarian populist tide, remain strong despite signs of democratic renewal emerged with the recent new green Keynesian turn in established Western democracies, a more unified transatlantic response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and growing political-economic fragility of key hybrid regimes ruled by authoritarian populist leaders. Also, the resilience of various types of autocracies which co-exist and reinforce one another through economic linkages and political coalitions should not be underestimated, especially demonstrative effects of the Russia-China partnership. Both democratic and authoritarian forms of capitalism face serious problems of income and wealth inequality, raising challenges over "performance legitimacy" in both regime types. In this context, the performance and political-economic orientation of hybrid regimes will have a crucial bearing on the fortunes of liberal democracy on a global scale.

Research paper thumbnail of Turkey's Encounter with Neo-liberal Reforms and the Logic of Washington Consensus, 1980-1990

Political Economy of Development in Turkey, edited by Emre Özçelik and Yonca Özdemir, 2022

The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this p... more The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Research paper thumbnail of Turkish Foreign Policy in Flux: The Traditional Alignments with the West versus the NewEastern Orientation

BATAS Turkish Area Studies Review, 2021

Research paper thumbnail of Understanding oscillations in Turkish foreign policy: pathways to unusual middle power activism

Third World Quarterly, 2021

The conventional literature on the role of middle powers emphasises the importance of soft power,... more The conventional literature on the role of middle powers emphasises the importance of soft power, niche diplomacy and coalition building. This article explores a case of unusual middle power activism with a focus on recent Turkish foreign policy behaviour. It demonstrates how the interaction of domestic politics and external dynamics produced an unusual degree of foreign policy activism, going well beyond conventional middle power behaviour, with the government increasingly employing coercive diplomacy and militaristic methods. We demonstrate that unusual middle power activism in a shifting international order yielded 'populist dividends' to the ruling elite in the short run but led to a 'triple governance crisis' in the economy, politics and foreign policy, with each element feeding into the others in a path-dependent fashion.

Research paper thumbnail of An Emerging Partnership in a Post-Western World ?: The Political Economy of China-Turkey Relations

South East European and Black Sea Studies, 2021

The present paper aims to explain the newly found momentum in the China-Turkey relationship over ... more The present paper aims to explain the newly found momentum in the China-Turkey relationship over the course of the past decade. Attention is given to two interlocking processes involving global dynamics and domestic politics in Turkey in a rapidly shifting international context. At the global level, significant power shifts away from the West and the growing global reach and assertiveness of China during the Xi Jinping era have played an important role. At the domestic level, profound power shifts and attempts to consolidate a new and yet fragile political-economic model associated with a highly centralized and authoritarian presidential system have emerged as crucial factors. Our central point is that the China-Turkey partnership embodies an important political dimension that goes beyond a narrow economic partnership. Given the inherently political nature of the relationship, the future path of the China-Turkey partnership will depend crucially on Turkey's domestic political trajectory over the next decade.

Research paper thumbnail of Turkish foreign policy in a post-western order: strategic autonomy or new forms of dependence

International Affairs, 2021

* We would like to thank the International Affairs editorial team and anonymous referees. This ar... more * We would like to thank the International Affairs editorial team and anonymous referees. This article is a product of a collaborative project on Turkish foreign policy involving LSE and Koç University. The original workshop was held in Istanbul in February 2020. We would like to thank Chris Alden, Katerina Dalacoura, Şuhnaz Yilmaz and Buğra Süsler for their encouragement and valuable criticisms. We are grateful to Elodie Brun,

The export/import ratio in Turkey’s trade with the BRICS grouping was around 18 per cent in 2020, compared to 95 per cent for trade with the EU. As t Ss a t t he trade deficit is a chronic concern, and the BRICS hip are openly questioned. EU membership is no nd the customs union deal is politically asymmet he European Commission, a growing source of d countries represented most of Turkey’s total trade deficit in 2020, the balanced nature of Turkey—EU trade relations remains significant. Nonetheless, the terms of the EU—Turkey partner- onger a serious possibility, ric. Turkey has no role in EU decision-making on trade policy but has to comply with the decisions of isappointment for Turkish policy-makers. Strategic autonomy, in this context, has become a byword for he step-by-step institutionalization of a transactionalist turn in the Turkey-EU partnership. Despite the unfavourable trends, thoug likely to continue, given the complex interdependence between the two sides. y g p Pp h, functional cooperation is

Research paper thumbnail of Röportaj-Sosyal Bilimciler Konuşuyor: Prof. Dr. Ziya Öniş

İktisat ve Toplum, No: 125, 2021

Research paper thumbnail of The anatomy of Turkey's new heterodox crisis: the interplay of domestic politics and global dynamics

Turkish Studies, 2020

A decade after the global financial turmoil, a new wave of crises is haunting the global South. T... more A decade after the global financial turmoil, a new wave of crises is haunting the global South. This pattern is different from previous crisis episodes. Powerful shifts in the international order provide new policy space for emerging powers to manage their economic problems in a heterodox fashion. Key Western-led institutions no longer enjoy a monopoly in dictating the terms of financial assistance for countries in economic difficulty, as non-Western powers increasingly challenge the orthodox Washington Consensus paradigm. The present paper attempts to locate Turkey's ongoing economic crisis in a comparative-historical context. Its central argument posits that the current crisis is the reflection of a fragile and unconsolidated presidential system and its associated mode of economic governance with state capitalist features. Turkey's heterodox crisis allows us to draw attention to the complex interplay of global power transitions in a post-liberal international order and domestic political constellations during an era of growing authoritarian populism, generating a new equilibrium with rather unique features.

Research paper thumbnail of Otoriter Kapitalizmin Yükselişi: Değişen Küresel Dengeler ve Demokrasinin Geleceği Üzerine

İktisat ve Toplum Dergisi No. 120, 2020

Günümüzdeki hegemonik dönüşüm, bir güç geçişinden daha fazlasını ifade ediyor; yeniden yapılanmak... more Günümüzdeki hegemonik dönüşüm, bir güç geçişinden daha fazlasını ifade ediyor; yeniden yapılanmakta olan küreselleşme süreci çok-düzenli ve parçalı bir uluslararası sistemin ortaya çıkış evresini oluşturuyor.

Research paper thumbnail of INTL 313 Syllabus Fall 2020 Öniş

Research paper thumbnail of INTL 313 Syllabus Fall 2020 Öniş

Teaching Material, 2020

Course Syllabus for Global Political Economy Fall 2000

Research paper thumbnail of INTL 313 Syllabus Fall

Syllabus of my undergraduate course on the Global Political Economy, Fall 2019

Research paper thumbnail of INTL 380 Syllabus Fall 2019

Syllabus of my undergraduate course on Comparative Political Economy of Emerging Powers

Research paper thumbnail of INTL 410 Syllabus Spring 2019.pdf

Political Economy of Turkey Syllabus, 2019

Research paper thumbnail of INTL 380 Syllabus Fall 2018 .pdf

This course offers a political economy account of the rise of emerging powers. Topics to be cover... more This course offers a political economy account of the rise of emerging powers. Topics to be covered include contemporary debates on the political economy of late industrialization, the relationship between state and the economy, the importance of institutions in the development process and the rise of BRICS and near-BRICs in the changing global order. Theoretical themes are applied to the case studies of

Research paper thumbnail of INTL- ECIR 410 Political Economy of Turkey Syllabus Spring 2018

DESCRIPTION This course offers an advanced introduction to the dynamics and some enduring problem... more DESCRIPTION This course offers an advanced introduction to the dynamics and some enduring problems of the Turkish economy from a political economy perspective. It is divided into 14 topics that broadly group into three parts: Part I begins with an historical overview of the major policy phases of the Turkish economy from the early 20 th century onward. We then focus on Turkey's crisis-ridden process of market transition over the past three decades by exploring the country's relations with international organizations such as the IMF, its dynamic integration with the global economy, and efforts toward substantive restructuring since the devastating crisis of 2000-2001. Part II discusses Turkey's international economic relations with particular emphasis on its troubled path toward EU integration, its evolving relations with the BRICS, as well as the economic and political role it plays in the Middle East and Africa. Part III is devoted to social implications of Turkey's economic development. Here we focus on the pressing problems of poverty and inequality as well as on Turkey's changing welfare state. TEXTS There is no textbook for the course. All required readings for the course (which include journal articles and book chapters) are listed in this syllabus. All readings are available to students at the Online E-Reserve Collection of the Suna Kıraç Library. Library web site à Catalog à Reserves by course à Course code: INTL 410. Some journal articles are also accessible online through the library website.

Research paper thumbnail of INTL 410 Political Economy of Turkey Syllabus Fall 2015

Research paper thumbnail of INTL 532 Political Economy of Globalization and Development Syllabus Spring 2015

Research paper thumbnail of INTL 313 Introduction to Global Political Economy Fall 2014 Syllabus

TA Office CASE 166 TA Office Hour Tuesday, 14.30-15.30; and by appointment F-Drive Path /COURSES/... more TA Office CASE 166 TA Office Hour Tuesday, 14.30-15.30; and by appointment F-Drive Path /COURSES/UGRADS/INTL313/SHARE

Research paper thumbnail of INTL 410 Turkish Political Economy Syllabus Fall 2014

Research paper thumbnail of INTL 532 Political Economy of Globalization and Development-Spring 2014 Syllabus

The course aims to provide an in-depth coverage of the political economy of globalization and dev... more The course aims to provide an in-depth coverage of the political economy of globalization and development with a particular focus on emerging powers and their changing role in the global political economy. The first part of the part of the course will cover broader debates on Northern varieties of capitalism, states and markets in development, democracy and development, democratic transitions in the "south" and the persistence of authoritarian and hybrid regimes.

Research paper thumbnail of INTL 313 Introduction to Global Political Economy-Sypring 2014 Syllabus

TA Office CASE 289 TA Office Hour Thursday, 13.30-14.30; and by appointment F-Drive Path /COURSES... more TA Office CASE 289 TA Office Hour Thursday, 13.30-14.30; and by appointment F-Drive Path /COURSES/UGRADS/INTL313/SHARE

Research paper thumbnail of Syllabus of INTL 410/ECON 481 Turkish Economy

Research paper thumbnail of Küresel Kriz ve Yeni Ekonomik Düzen

Küresel Kriz ve Yeni Ekonomik Düzen

Research paper thumbnail of Turkish Big Business in the Age of Democratic Consolidation: The Nature and Limits of its Influence

Turkish Big Business in the Age of Democratic Consolidation: The Nature and Limits of its Influence

South European Society and Politics, 2010

... Zakaria, F. 1997. The rise of illiberal democracy. ... Some court cases were retried based on... more ... Zakaria, F. 1997. The rise of illiberal democracy. ... Some court cases were retried based on the decisions of the European Court of Human Rights, most notably that of Leyla Zana, a Kurdish former Member of Parliament who was serving a prison term. ...

Research paper thumbnail of Turkey and Russia in a shifting global order: cooperation, conflict and asymmetric interdependence in a turbulent region

“Turkey and Russia in a Shifting Global Order: Co-operation, Conflict and Asymmetric Interdependence in a Turbulent Region,” (co-author Ziya Öniş), Third World Quarterly, forthcoming.

The central concern of the paper is the relevance of the “strategic partnership” thesis. Our majo... more The central concern of the paper is the relevance of the “strategic partnership” thesis. Our major contention is that in spite of growing economic interdependence and diplomatic initiatives especially on the partof Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the Russian President Vladimir Putin in recent years, relations between the two countries continue to be characterized by significant elements of conflict. Whilst continued engagement between the countries is a favorable development, we find the strategic partnership thesis an overstatement and an inadequate characterization of Turkish-Russian relations in the present stage of its evolution. A central argument is that a strategic partnership will be difficult to forge and consolidate, as long as significant differences persist in the geo-political orientations and the regime types of the individual states. Yet, we also argue that one novel aspect of bilateral relations in the recent period, has been 'compartmentalization,' which enabled the co-existence of political tensions and contentions with deepening economic ties. Another keyelement that the study highlights is the problem of asymmetric interdependence in relations between BRICS andnear BRICS economies, which certainly underlines the current nature of the bilateral relations between Russia and Turkey, which may create structural advantages and increase the bargaining options for the stronger partner.

Research paper thumbnail of Between Europeanization and Euro-Asianism: Foreign Policy Activism in Turkey during the AKP Era

“Between Europeanization and Euro-Asianism: Foreign Policy Activism During the AKP Era,” (co-author Ziya Öniş), Turkish Studies, vol.10, no.1, (Spring 2009): 7-24.

While Turkey pursued a relatively passive or reactive foreign policy stance during the Cold War e... more While Turkey pursued a relatively passive or reactive foreign policy stance during the Cold War era, its post-Cold war foreign policy has been marked by subsequent waves of foreign policy activisim. This article argues that Turkish foreign policy in the post-Cold War period may be conceptualized in terms of three distinct phases: (a) an initial wave of foreign policy activism in the immediate post-Cold War context; (b) a new or second wave of foreign policy activism during the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government with a strong emphasis on Europeanization; (c) the current tension between Europeanization and Eurasianism. The roots of the second wave of activism can, in fact, be traced to the pre-AKP era to the crucial Helsinki Decision on Turkey’s EU candidacy and the reforms undertaken by the coalition government of 1999-2002 particularly in the aftermath of the deep financial crisis of 2001. However, the AKP era itself has not been homogenous in terms

Research paper thumbnail of Europe and the Impasse of Centre-left Politics in Turkey: Lessons from the Greek Experience

Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies, 2010

This paper aims at exploring the state of centre-left politics in Greece and Turkey by focusing o... more This paper aims at exploring the state of centre-left politics in Greece and Turkey by focusing on the transformation of the two leading centre-left parties in the two countries, the Greek Panhellenic Socialist Movement (Panellinio Sosialistiko Kinima—PASOK) and the Turkish Republican People's Party (Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi—CHP). Such a comparison is warranted for a number of reasons, despite size discrepancy and religious differences between the two countries. Both Greece and Turkey emerged from the Ottoman Empire and share to a considerable degree a legacy of top-down and crisis-ridden modernization. In both countries, a reformist and an underdog1 culture clashed, thus making modernization the product of the compromise between the two. In the case of Greece, PASOK has succeeded in ruling Greece for more than 20 years. While the party emerged in the 1970s with nationalist, anti-imperialist third-worldist elements, it was able to gradually move to the centre of the political spectrum in the mid-1990s and become a trigger of political reform. This process peaked during the Simitis administration, in which Greece regained its lost international prestige as ‘the European country of the Balkans’ and was able to fulfil the economic criteria for its membership in the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). While still appealing to old slogans and rhetoric, the Simitis administration attempted to break old nationalist taboos on issues relating to Greek foreign and security policy. The early Simitis era became an ample example of how a centre-left party could form a greater winning social alliance, appeal to the winners of globalization and achieve high economic growth, while not compromising its social justice agenda. In the case of CHP, the party increasingly distanced itself from its social democratic legacy. Failing to win political power, it was trapped into a defensive nationalist, anti-globalization and anti-reformist political agenda spearheaded by the question of secularism. The consolidation of Turkish democracy and the promotion of human and minority rights lost their significance, and the CHP emerged as Turkey's leading nationalist and anti-reform party, questioning the country's European vocation and tolerating military interventions into Turkish politics. The diminution of the CHP into a party of the ‘secularist middle class’ has deprived it of any chances to lead a winning social coalition and lead Turkey's political reform. This paper will seek conclusions on the future of centre-left politics in Turkey based on the Greek experience.

Research paper thumbnail of Ziya Öniş and Mustafa Kutlay Limits of the EU's Transformative Power in the European Periphery in a Shifting Global Order: Comparative Perspectives from Hungary and Turkey

This paper highlights the weakening of the EU's transformative capacity in the broader European p... more This paper highlights the weakening of the EU's transformative capacity in the broader European periphery in a rapidly shifting global order with reference to Hungary and Turkey. Although Hungary is an " insider " and Turkey a relative " outsider " in the context of the EU, their recent experience display strikingly similar patterns raising important concerns regarding the transformative potential of the EU. Under the influence of strong nationalist-populist leaders backed by powerful majorities, both countries have been moving in increasingly illiberal direction and away from the well-established EU norms. The paper proposes an analytical framework based on a combination of push-and-pull factors, which explains the declining appeal of the EU over its periphery, not only with reference to the internal dynamics of European integration and its multiple crises, but also the appeal of the more authoritarian versions of strategic capitalism from the rising powers, serving as a reference point for the elites of several states in diverse geographical settings.