Omar AlShehabi | University of Leeds (original) (raw)

Papers by Omar AlShehabi

British Journal for Middle Eastern Studies, 2019

This study traces the modern origins of the Kafala migrant labour sponsorship system in the Gulf ... more This study traces the modern origins of the Kafala migrant labour sponsorship system in the Gulf Arab States. The sponsorship system was a product of the British colonial era, particularly the period from the 1920s until independence in the 1970s. Colonial administrators introduced sponsorship requirements in order to control labour migration in the pearl industry shortly before the discovery of oil in the region, and its use was further regularized and widely applied with the increasing migrant labour working in the oil companies. British officials viewed migrant labour as both a necessity and a problem that needed to be regulated and controlled, both from the viewpoint of economic growth and security. As jurisdiction over foreigners was retroceded back to the newly created states in the independence era, sponsorship of foreign labour was ultimately restricted and delegated to citizens or companies owned by citizens. As a particular example, the case of the "bachelor" worker is detailed as a legal-bureaucratic complex of sponsorship practices. Such practices are placed within a wider ensemble of British colonial policies for controlling labour and policing empire "on the cheap" across the Indian Ocean in the 19 th and 20 th centuries.

Transit States: Labour, Migration, and Citizenship in the Gulf, 2014

Discussion of migration in the GCC has traditionally exclusively focused on labour. This paper fo... more Discussion of migration in the GCC has traditionally exclusively focused on labour. This paper focuses on other dimensions of migration which have started emerging over the first decade of the 21st century in the Gulf Arab States. These other aspects of migration will be highlighted through the lens of “international mega-real estate projects” (IMREPs). I will argue that these newly emergent mega real estate projects highlight a marked shift in citizen-state-expatriates dynamics within the region. Expatriates are no longer only viewed as workers and source of labour power, but increasingly they are also potential consumers, investors, owners of property and users of the urban space, with significant consequences for the "Right to the City".

This chapter discusses the historical roots and evolution of the extreme reliance on temporary mi... more This chapter discusses the historical roots and evolution of the extreme reliance on temporary migrant workers in the six states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). It focuses, in detail, on the most important changes that the region's population structure has experienced from the start of the oil era up to the first decade of the twenty-first century. Particular attention is given to areas of similarity within the individual experiences of each of the GCC states. The intention is to present a broad framework for understanding the rise of a demographic system between citizen and non-citizen populations that could be best summarised as 'restricted citizenship with unrestricted migration', and to shed light on the most important factors that contributed to its development.

The main focus will be on detailing the mutually constitutive relationship that exists between the GCC's modern population structure and the oil revolution that took place in the Gulf. Indeed, the economic and political system that accompanied the oil revolution formed the very foundations of the demographic dynamics we find in the region today. The chapter's main thesis is that the demographic structure was the result of two often overlapping but sometimes conflicting projects: the construction of a 'petro-modernist state' in each of the GCC countries, combined with the establishment of capitalism as the dominant (but not the only) economic mode of production. Both of these projects were to be driven by rising oil revenues and migrant labour flowing into the region.

The paper constitues the first chapter of the book "Transit States: Labour, Migration, and Citizenship in the Gulf" co-edited by Abdulahadi Khalaf, Omar AlShehabi, and Adam Hanieh.

The Oxford Handbook for the Contemporary Middle-Eastern and North African History, 2017

This chapter traces the birth, rise, and evolution of political movements in Bahrain throughout t... more This chapter traces the birth, rise, and evolution of political movements in Bahrain throughout the long twentieth century, taking as its starting point the beginning of direct British presence in the local political scene in 1900, and ending with the aftermath of the mass protests that engulfed the islands in 2011. It highlights four intersecting dichotomies that have characterized these political movements across time: trans-sectarian versus ethnosectarian, national versus transnational, reformist versus revolutionary, and public versus underground. It sheds light on the importance of externally imposed structural factors on local developments on the island, including British colonial absolutist rule, the discovery of oil and the subsequent fluctuation in the commodity's global prices, and the rise of American hegemony. Taking its cue from the work of the autonomistas, the analysis also highlights the central role that political movements have played in shaping the actions and reactions of the state. The state's attempts to contain these movements, and the contestation between the two sides, played a central role in shaping the contours of both state and society across Bahrain's long century.

British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies, 2016

This study argues that political mobilization based on ethnosectarian identities in Bahrain is a ... more This study argues that political mobilization based on ethnosectarian identities in Bahrain is a modernist product of the contestations that occurred in the period of increasing British colonial involvement in the early twentieth century. Two concepts are utilized: The first is the colonial "ethnosectarian gaze", marked primarily by its underlying epistemology that saw ethnosectarian cleavages as the main analytic units for approaching local political power, practice, and discourse.

The second is "contested and divided rule". With the advent of Curzon's "forward policy" in the Gulf, Britain actively divided sovereignty between itself and the local ruler, with actors on the island faced with two conflicting sources of jurisdiction. The British viewed issues of jurisdiction primarily through an ethnosectarian lens, and increasingly so did other actors, creating an inter-feeding dynamic between ethnosectarianism, nationalism, and divided rule.

Two emergent forms of political mobilization are emphasized. The first mobilized based on ethnosectarian identity-specific demands and grievances. The other took an overtly nationalist, trans-sectarian, anti-colonial tone, having its roots in the al-Nahda renaissance that swept the Arab world in the nineteenth century. Thus, colonialism, absolutism, ethnosectarianism, and nationalism went hand in hand, products of a similar period of divided rule, their lingering effects still felt today.

Journal of Macroeconomics, 2015

This article approaches the developments in Bahrain during the first decade of the twenty-first ... more This article approaches the developments in Bahrain during the first decade of the
twenty-first century through a geographical, historical materialism perspective. It moves away from
emphasizing the traditional narratives of events in the island as dominated by identity-based (and
particularly sect-based) politics, arguing that the interactions between space, capital, and people
over time are also central to explaining local dynamics. It argues that this period has been defined by
a radical transformation of the spatial-demographic landscape of Bahrain, and that this perturbed
state of creation and destruction on the spatial and demographic fronts crucially was reflected in a
radical contestation of social identity, values and discourses. These play an important role in
explaining the political explosion that occurred on February 14, 2011 and the subsequent political
mobilization along sectarian and nationalist lines.

This article focuses on the ‘The Constitutive Committee’, the 1971–2 mass-movement to create a ge... more This article focuses on the ‘The Constitutive Committee’, the 1971–2 mass-movement to create a general trade union in Bahrain. The first mass-movement after independence, it was also the country’s first public non-sectarian organised movement. Initially a joint effort between ‘The Popular Front’ and the ‘National Liberation Front’, it represented the first formal collaboration between the two major factions of the Left, which had historically entertained an ambivalent relationship. This article traces the committee’s establishment and development, culminating with the ‘March 1972 uprising’. The article places the Constitutive Committee within a historical narrative that begins with the Higher Executive Committee movement of 1954–6 and leads up to the February 2011 Arab uprisings. The framework emphasises the dialectical struggles of popular movements searching for a united front for political change, faced by a regime that has mastered the use of divide and rule to entrench social and political fragmentation.

This study focuses on what has become commonly known as the ‘demographic disorder’ in the countri... more This study focuses on what has become commonly known as the ‘demographic disorder’ in the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). At the general level, the ‘demographic disorder’ refers to the over-reliance on expatriates – in various areas and prominently within labour forces (both highly specialized as well as unskilled) – in GCC societies, where expatriates constitute a majority of the population in four of the GCC countries and a majority of the labour force in all six member states. This study focuses particularly on demographic developments and trends over the first decade of the new millennium, especially the phenomenon of ‘international mega-real estate’ projects aimed at expatriates. This phenomenon has taken central stage in four countries of the GCC (Bahrain, Oman, Qatar and the UAE), where the policies and actions of decision-makers have been squarely directed towards making these projects primary engines of growth in their respective economies. The central thesis of this study holds that these mega-real estate projects signal a qualitative shift in the manner in which decision-makers view the issue of the ‘demographic disorder’. While the overreliance on expatriates was previously seen as a necessary and unavoidable by-product of economic growth that had to be tolerated and regulated in order to meet the dictates of economic production, migrant inflow of a very specific and peculiar kind has now been adopted as a central goal required in order to fill these newly constructed cities and to boost economic demand and consumption in the region.

We develop a unique dynamic CGE model suitable for analysing the policy interrelationships betwee... more We develop a unique dynamic CGE model suitable for analysing the policy interrelationships between fuels, crude oil and the labour market. Special emphasis is placed on the modelling of energies, crude oil, and the factors of production in the economy. To fully outline the model's features, we build simulations that hypothesize removing fuel and crude oil subsidies in an oil exporting economy to assess their effects on the labour market. The model allows for extensive treatment of transition dynamics, featuring gradual as well as immediate removal of the subsidies. We focus on constructing two alternative simulations applied to a purpose built Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of the Iranian economy, with the revenue from subsidy elimination redistributed to households as extra income or into increased investment. The study pays particular attention to SAM data construction of energy goods and factors of production. In the specific case of Iran, the model shows that rebating the revenue from subsidy removals to households affects the labour market adversely, while channelling revenue into investment improves labour fortunes in the long run. The model is sufficiently detailed and encompassing to allow for further applications to other countries and energy–labour policy issues.

Taking Iran as a case study, we analyze the effects of eliminating crude oil and fuel subsidies o... more Taking Iran as a case study, we analyze the effects of eliminating crude oil and fuel subsidies on the labour market using two alternative policy options. The first redistributes additional revenue as extra income to households, while the second directs revenue into increased investment. We investigate immediate versus gradual subsidy removal, focusing on the transition dynamics at play. A purpose-built dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model is deployed with a unique Social Accounting Matrix of Iran. It is shown that rebating the extra revenue to households would adversely affect the labour market. Industries and employment contract due to the Dutch Disease effect and the more expensive fuel inputs. Channeling extra revenue into investment, however, considerably improves the labour market's fortunes in the long run via increased capital accumulation and shifts in industrial composition. Gradual subsidy removal allows for a smoother transition that minimizes short-run costs in the labour market.

IMF Working Papers, Jan 1, 2008

The significant real exchange rate appreciation in Armenia and Georgia since 2003, coupled with... more The significant real exchange rate appreciation in Armenia and Georgia since 2003, coupled
with persistent current account deficits, raises the question of whether real exchange rates
have become overvalued. This paper seeks to identify possible exchange rate misalignment
by applying the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate approach, complemented by an
analysis of the traditional competitiveness indicators. The results indicate an undervaluation
of the Armenian dram and no significant misalignment of the Georgian lari in 2006.

papers.ssrn.com

This study analyzes the effects of eliminating fuel subsidies on the labour market, focusing on o... more This study analyzes the effects of eliminating fuel subsidies on the labour market, focusing on oil producing countries with significantly underpriced fuel commodities. The Islamic Republic of Iran is used as a case study. Two alternative options are analyzed, with the extra revenue from subsidy elimination redistributed back to household as extra income versus directing the revenue into increased investment. A purpose-builit static and dynamic CGE model is deployed in conjunction with a unique Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of Iran. It is shown that the current structure of the economy is heavily biased towards industries that are crude oil and fuel intensive in production. Redistributing the extra revenue back to households would not be enough to overcome these distortions. The labour market suffers under such a scenario, even though Real GDP and household welfare rise. Industries contract due to the Dutch Disease effect and the more expensive inputs, causing overall production and employment to decline. Channelling the extra income into investment, however, improves the labour market’s fortune dramatically in the long run. Firstly, there is increased capital accumulation due to the rise in investment. Secondly, the structure of the Iranian economy shifts. Capital is directed towards non-fuel or crude oil intensive industries, allowing the economy to adjust away from its current reliance on industries dependent on these inputs. Consequently, employment of all types of labour in the economy experience a marked rise.

Books by Omar AlShehabi

University of Oxford, 2008

This thesis focuses on macroeconomic modelling of the labour market using Dynamic Stochastic Gene... more This thesis focuses on macroeconomic modelling of the labour market using Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) and Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models. The first three chapters utilize DSGE models calibrated to the Dutch economy. Their main feature is the adoption of the Mortensen-Pissarides matching function approach. The final chapter constructs a CGE model to investigate the effects of fuel subsidies on Iran‟s labour market.

The first study develops a model that features two types of labour, high versus low skilled, who are differentiated according to educational attainment. The effects of overcrowding, technological change and the unemployment benefit are investigated. While biased technological change and overcrowding hurt low skilled workers, a higher unemployment benefit can help in alleviating these effects.

The subsequent chapter abstracts from educational attainment and features skill differentiation along worker productivity levels. The main feature is the presence of endogenous job destruction, which allows for a rich analysis of job creation and destruction rates. Wage rigidities, unemployment income and firing costs are incorporated. While lower unemployment income and higher firing costs reduce equilibrium unemployment, firing costs and deviations from the Hosios condition are the most important factors in explaining the labour market‟s cyclical properties.

The third chapter combines the features of the previous two studies to analyze the cyclical dynamics of workers with different educational levels. The analysis focuses on the “overeducated”: high skilled workers in simple jobs. They are shown to have unique cyclical properties, where their employment increases in a recession, thus overcrowding low skilled workers.

The final chapter switches focus to CGE modelling. The effects of fuel subsidies on the labour market in Iran are studied. Using a unique Social Accounting Matrix, the results show that reducing fuel subsidies can help in reducing unemployment only if the extra revenue is channelled towards additional Investment.

The states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, ... more The states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, Oman and Qatar) form the largest destination for labour migration in the global South. In all of these states, however, the majority of the working population is composed of temporary, migrant workers with no citizenship rights.

The cheap and transitory labour power these workers provide has created the prodigious and extraordinary development boom across the region, and neighbouring countries are almost fully dependent on the labour markets of the Gulf to employ their working populations. For these reasons, the Gulf takes a central place in contemporary debates around migration and labour in the global economy.

This book attempts to bring together and explore these issues. The relationship between ‘citizen’ and ‘non-citizen’ holds immense significance for understanding the construction of class, gender, city and state in the Gulf, however too often these questions are occluded in too scholarly or overly-popular accounts of the region. Bringing together experts on the Gulf, Transit States confronts the precarious working conditions of migrants in a accessible, yet in-depth manner.

لا يخفى على اي مراقب تفاقم ظاهرة الخلل السكاني في دول مجلس التعاون العربية، وهي ظاهرة فريدة من نو... more لا يخفى على اي مراقب تفاقم ظاهرة الخلل السكاني في دول مجلس التعاون العربية، وهي ظاهرة فريدة من نوعها في العالم، حيث وصلت نسبة غير المواطنين في بعض هذه الدول إلى حوالي 90٪ من السكان. ونظرًا الى حدة هذه الظاهرة وفرادتها، تتضارب الآراء حولها بشدّة. ففيما يرى فيها كثيرون خطرًا يهدد هويّة شعوب المنطقة وأمنها، ينظر إليها آخرون من زاوية اضطهاد العمالة الوافدة وتعرّضها لأبشع أنواع العنصرية في الزمن المعاصر. ورغم تضارب العواطف والأهواء في شأن هذه القضية، بات ملحّاً إخضاعها لتحليل منهجي ونوعي ، وطرح حلول جذرية وعملية تساهم في التصدي لها لأنها، في رأينا، احدى القضايا المصيريّة الكبرى التي تواجه دول المجلس.
يضم هذا الكتاب أوراق ومناقشات اللقاء السنوي الرابع والثلاثين لمنتدى التنمية، والذي شارك فيه اكثر من 120 من خيرة كوادر أهل المنطقة للبحث في الاقتراحات والحلول للخلل السكاني المتفاقم في دول المجلس التعاون. ليس هدف هذا الكتاب سرد ظواهر الخلل السكاني وأسبابه فحسب، بل الغوص في ما هو أعمق من رصد ظاهرة الخلل السكاني، وتفكيك الأسباب الجذرية لهذا الخلل، حتى يتسنى لنا تفصيل سياسات وآليات تساهم، بداية، في وقف تفاقم هذا الخلل، ومن ثم مواجهة جذور المشكلة وحلها.

يسري الخليجُ في عروق هذا الاصدار، فهو معنيٌّ أساساً بالتطوّرات على الأراضي المحيطة بالجانب الغرب... more يسري الخليجُ في عروق هذا الاصدار، فهو معنيٌّ أساساً بالتطوّرات على الأراضي المحيطة بالجانب الغربي من ضفافه. لكن ما قد يميز هذا الاصدار عن غيره من الكتابات عن المنطقة؛ هو أنه كُتب كليّاً بأقلام من الخليج، ومصبّ اهتمامه وجمهوره الأساس الذين يُخاطبهم هم أهل الخليج.
كيف يُقارن المخزون الاستراتيجي للمياه في البحرين - الذي لا يتعدّى يوماً واحداً - مع باقي دول المنطقة؟ ولماذا فاقَ سعرُ برميل النفط - الذي تحتاجه الإمارات لموازنةِ ميزانيتها - 85 دولار؟ ما هي تبعات نسبة المواطنين المتدنّية بالمقارنة مع الأجانب في قطر والتي لا تبلغ نسبة 15%؟ وكم عدد القوّات العسكريّة الأجنبيّة التي تتخذ من قواعد في دولها مقرّاً لها؟ وما آخر تطوّرات ملف السّجناء السّياسيين في المنطقة؟
الإجابة على هذه الأسئلة هي هدفُ هذا الاصدار وفحواه، حيث نُركّز فيه على رصْد وتحليل التطوّرات والتغيّرات الجارية في أقطار مجلس التعاون لدول الخليج العربيّة، على مدى الأعوام 2011 -2013م، وتقييمها من منظور متطلّبات بناء الدّولة الحديثة، ووفق الطّبيعة العامة لهذه الأقطار.

British Journal for Middle Eastern Studies, 2019

This study traces the modern origins of the Kafala migrant labour sponsorship system in the Gulf ... more This study traces the modern origins of the Kafala migrant labour sponsorship system in the Gulf Arab States. The sponsorship system was a product of the British colonial era, particularly the period from the 1920s until independence in the 1970s. Colonial administrators introduced sponsorship requirements in order to control labour migration in the pearl industry shortly before the discovery of oil in the region, and its use was further regularized and widely applied with the increasing migrant labour working in the oil companies. British officials viewed migrant labour as both a necessity and a problem that needed to be regulated and controlled, both from the viewpoint of economic growth and security. As jurisdiction over foreigners was retroceded back to the newly created states in the independence era, sponsorship of foreign labour was ultimately restricted and delegated to citizens or companies owned by citizens. As a particular example, the case of the "bachelor" worker is detailed as a legal-bureaucratic complex of sponsorship practices. Such practices are placed within a wider ensemble of British colonial policies for controlling labour and policing empire "on the cheap" across the Indian Ocean in the 19 th and 20 th centuries.

Transit States: Labour, Migration, and Citizenship in the Gulf, 2014

Discussion of migration in the GCC has traditionally exclusively focused on labour. This paper fo... more Discussion of migration in the GCC has traditionally exclusively focused on labour. This paper focuses on other dimensions of migration which have started emerging over the first decade of the 21st century in the Gulf Arab States. These other aspects of migration will be highlighted through the lens of “international mega-real estate projects” (IMREPs). I will argue that these newly emergent mega real estate projects highlight a marked shift in citizen-state-expatriates dynamics within the region. Expatriates are no longer only viewed as workers and source of labour power, but increasingly they are also potential consumers, investors, owners of property and users of the urban space, with significant consequences for the "Right to the City".

This chapter discusses the historical roots and evolution of the extreme reliance on temporary mi... more This chapter discusses the historical roots and evolution of the extreme reliance on temporary migrant workers in the six states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). It focuses, in detail, on the most important changes that the region's population structure has experienced from the start of the oil era up to the first decade of the twenty-first century. Particular attention is given to areas of similarity within the individual experiences of each of the GCC states. The intention is to present a broad framework for understanding the rise of a demographic system between citizen and non-citizen populations that could be best summarised as 'restricted citizenship with unrestricted migration', and to shed light on the most important factors that contributed to its development.

The main focus will be on detailing the mutually constitutive relationship that exists between the GCC's modern population structure and the oil revolution that took place in the Gulf. Indeed, the economic and political system that accompanied the oil revolution formed the very foundations of the demographic dynamics we find in the region today. The chapter's main thesis is that the demographic structure was the result of two often overlapping but sometimes conflicting projects: the construction of a 'petro-modernist state' in each of the GCC countries, combined with the establishment of capitalism as the dominant (but not the only) economic mode of production. Both of these projects were to be driven by rising oil revenues and migrant labour flowing into the region.

The paper constitues the first chapter of the book "Transit States: Labour, Migration, and Citizenship in the Gulf" co-edited by Abdulahadi Khalaf, Omar AlShehabi, and Adam Hanieh.

The Oxford Handbook for the Contemporary Middle-Eastern and North African History, 2017

This chapter traces the birth, rise, and evolution of political movements in Bahrain throughout t... more This chapter traces the birth, rise, and evolution of political movements in Bahrain throughout the long twentieth century, taking as its starting point the beginning of direct British presence in the local political scene in 1900, and ending with the aftermath of the mass protests that engulfed the islands in 2011. It highlights four intersecting dichotomies that have characterized these political movements across time: trans-sectarian versus ethnosectarian, national versus transnational, reformist versus revolutionary, and public versus underground. It sheds light on the importance of externally imposed structural factors on local developments on the island, including British colonial absolutist rule, the discovery of oil and the subsequent fluctuation in the commodity's global prices, and the rise of American hegemony. Taking its cue from the work of the autonomistas, the analysis also highlights the central role that political movements have played in shaping the actions and reactions of the state. The state's attempts to contain these movements, and the contestation between the two sides, played a central role in shaping the contours of both state and society across Bahrain's long century.

British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies, 2016

This study argues that political mobilization based on ethnosectarian identities in Bahrain is a ... more This study argues that political mobilization based on ethnosectarian identities in Bahrain is a modernist product of the contestations that occurred in the period of increasing British colonial involvement in the early twentieth century. Two concepts are utilized: The first is the colonial "ethnosectarian gaze", marked primarily by its underlying epistemology that saw ethnosectarian cleavages as the main analytic units for approaching local political power, practice, and discourse.

The second is "contested and divided rule". With the advent of Curzon's "forward policy" in the Gulf, Britain actively divided sovereignty between itself and the local ruler, with actors on the island faced with two conflicting sources of jurisdiction. The British viewed issues of jurisdiction primarily through an ethnosectarian lens, and increasingly so did other actors, creating an inter-feeding dynamic between ethnosectarianism, nationalism, and divided rule.

Two emergent forms of political mobilization are emphasized. The first mobilized based on ethnosectarian identity-specific demands and grievances. The other took an overtly nationalist, trans-sectarian, anti-colonial tone, having its roots in the al-Nahda renaissance that swept the Arab world in the nineteenth century. Thus, colonialism, absolutism, ethnosectarianism, and nationalism went hand in hand, products of a similar period of divided rule, their lingering effects still felt today.

Journal of Macroeconomics, 2015

This article approaches the developments in Bahrain during the first decade of the twenty-first ... more This article approaches the developments in Bahrain during the first decade of the
twenty-first century through a geographical, historical materialism perspective. It moves away from
emphasizing the traditional narratives of events in the island as dominated by identity-based (and
particularly sect-based) politics, arguing that the interactions between space, capital, and people
over time are also central to explaining local dynamics. It argues that this period has been defined by
a radical transformation of the spatial-demographic landscape of Bahrain, and that this perturbed
state of creation and destruction on the spatial and demographic fronts crucially was reflected in a
radical contestation of social identity, values and discourses. These play an important role in
explaining the political explosion that occurred on February 14, 2011 and the subsequent political
mobilization along sectarian and nationalist lines.

This article focuses on the ‘The Constitutive Committee’, the 1971–2 mass-movement to create a ge... more This article focuses on the ‘The Constitutive Committee’, the 1971–2 mass-movement to create a general trade union in Bahrain. The first mass-movement after independence, it was also the country’s first public non-sectarian organised movement. Initially a joint effort between ‘The Popular Front’ and the ‘National Liberation Front’, it represented the first formal collaboration between the two major factions of the Left, which had historically entertained an ambivalent relationship. This article traces the committee’s establishment and development, culminating with the ‘March 1972 uprising’. The article places the Constitutive Committee within a historical narrative that begins with the Higher Executive Committee movement of 1954–6 and leads up to the February 2011 Arab uprisings. The framework emphasises the dialectical struggles of popular movements searching for a united front for political change, faced by a regime that has mastered the use of divide and rule to entrench social and political fragmentation.

This study focuses on what has become commonly known as the ‘demographic disorder’ in the countri... more This study focuses on what has become commonly known as the ‘demographic disorder’ in the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). At the general level, the ‘demographic disorder’ refers to the over-reliance on expatriates – in various areas and prominently within labour forces (both highly specialized as well as unskilled) – in GCC societies, where expatriates constitute a majority of the population in four of the GCC countries and a majority of the labour force in all six member states. This study focuses particularly on demographic developments and trends over the first decade of the new millennium, especially the phenomenon of ‘international mega-real estate’ projects aimed at expatriates. This phenomenon has taken central stage in four countries of the GCC (Bahrain, Oman, Qatar and the UAE), where the policies and actions of decision-makers have been squarely directed towards making these projects primary engines of growth in their respective economies. The central thesis of this study holds that these mega-real estate projects signal a qualitative shift in the manner in which decision-makers view the issue of the ‘demographic disorder’. While the overreliance on expatriates was previously seen as a necessary and unavoidable by-product of economic growth that had to be tolerated and regulated in order to meet the dictates of economic production, migrant inflow of a very specific and peculiar kind has now been adopted as a central goal required in order to fill these newly constructed cities and to boost economic demand and consumption in the region.

We develop a unique dynamic CGE model suitable for analysing the policy interrelationships betwee... more We develop a unique dynamic CGE model suitable for analysing the policy interrelationships between fuels, crude oil and the labour market. Special emphasis is placed on the modelling of energies, crude oil, and the factors of production in the economy. To fully outline the model's features, we build simulations that hypothesize removing fuel and crude oil subsidies in an oil exporting economy to assess their effects on the labour market. The model allows for extensive treatment of transition dynamics, featuring gradual as well as immediate removal of the subsidies. We focus on constructing two alternative simulations applied to a purpose built Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of the Iranian economy, with the revenue from subsidy elimination redistributed to households as extra income or into increased investment. The study pays particular attention to SAM data construction of energy goods and factors of production. In the specific case of Iran, the model shows that rebating the revenue from subsidy removals to households affects the labour market adversely, while channelling revenue into investment improves labour fortunes in the long run. The model is sufficiently detailed and encompassing to allow for further applications to other countries and energy–labour policy issues.

Taking Iran as a case study, we analyze the effects of eliminating crude oil and fuel subsidies o... more Taking Iran as a case study, we analyze the effects of eliminating crude oil and fuel subsidies on the labour market using two alternative policy options. The first redistributes additional revenue as extra income to households, while the second directs revenue into increased investment. We investigate immediate versus gradual subsidy removal, focusing on the transition dynamics at play. A purpose-built dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model is deployed with a unique Social Accounting Matrix of Iran. It is shown that rebating the extra revenue to households would adversely affect the labour market. Industries and employment contract due to the Dutch Disease effect and the more expensive fuel inputs. Channeling extra revenue into investment, however, considerably improves the labour market's fortunes in the long run via increased capital accumulation and shifts in industrial composition. Gradual subsidy removal allows for a smoother transition that minimizes short-run costs in the labour market.

IMF Working Papers, Jan 1, 2008

The significant real exchange rate appreciation in Armenia and Georgia since 2003, coupled with... more The significant real exchange rate appreciation in Armenia and Georgia since 2003, coupled
with persistent current account deficits, raises the question of whether real exchange rates
have become overvalued. This paper seeks to identify possible exchange rate misalignment
by applying the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate approach, complemented by an
analysis of the traditional competitiveness indicators. The results indicate an undervaluation
of the Armenian dram and no significant misalignment of the Georgian lari in 2006.

papers.ssrn.com

This study analyzes the effects of eliminating fuel subsidies on the labour market, focusing on o... more This study analyzes the effects of eliminating fuel subsidies on the labour market, focusing on oil producing countries with significantly underpriced fuel commodities. The Islamic Republic of Iran is used as a case study. Two alternative options are analyzed, with the extra revenue from subsidy elimination redistributed back to household as extra income versus directing the revenue into increased investment. A purpose-builit static and dynamic CGE model is deployed in conjunction with a unique Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of Iran. It is shown that the current structure of the economy is heavily biased towards industries that are crude oil and fuel intensive in production. Redistributing the extra revenue back to households would not be enough to overcome these distortions. The labour market suffers under such a scenario, even though Real GDP and household welfare rise. Industries contract due to the Dutch Disease effect and the more expensive inputs, causing overall production and employment to decline. Channelling the extra income into investment, however, improves the labour market’s fortune dramatically in the long run. Firstly, there is increased capital accumulation due to the rise in investment. Secondly, the structure of the Iranian economy shifts. Capital is directed towards non-fuel or crude oil intensive industries, allowing the economy to adjust away from its current reliance on industries dependent on these inputs. Consequently, employment of all types of labour in the economy experience a marked rise.

University of Oxford, 2008

This thesis focuses on macroeconomic modelling of the labour market using Dynamic Stochastic Gene... more This thesis focuses on macroeconomic modelling of the labour market using Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) and Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models. The first three chapters utilize DSGE models calibrated to the Dutch economy. Their main feature is the adoption of the Mortensen-Pissarides matching function approach. The final chapter constructs a CGE model to investigate the effects of fuel subsidies on Iran‟s labour market.

The first study develops a model that features two types of labour, high versus low skilled, who are differentiated according to educational attainment. The effects of overcrowding, technological change and the unemployment benefit are investigated. While biased technological change and overcrowding hurt low skilled workers, a higher unemployment benefit can help in alleviating these effects.

The subsequent chapter abstracts from educational attainment and features skill differentiation along worker productivity levels. The main feature is the presence of endogenous job destruction, which allows for a rich analysis of job creation and destruction rates. Wage rigidities, unemployment income and firing costs are incorporated. While lower unemployment income and higher firing costs reduce equilibrium unemployment, firing costs and deviations from the Hosios condition are the most important factors in explaining the labour market‟s cyclical properties.

The third chapter combines the features of the previous two studies to analyze the cyclical dynamics of workers with different educational levels. The analysis focuses on the “overeducated”: high skilled workers in simple jobs. They are shown to have unique cyclical properties, where their employment increases in a recession, thus overcrowding low skilled workers.

The final chapter switches focus to CGE modelling. The effects of fuel subsidies on the labour market in Iran are studied. Using a unique Social Accounting Matrix, the results show that reducing fuel subsidies can help in reducing unemployment only if the extra revenue is channelled towards additional Investment.

The states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, ... more The states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, Oman and Qatar) form the largest destination for labour migration in the global South. In all of these states, however, the majority of the working population is composed of temporary, migrant workers with no citizenship rights.

The cheap and transitory labour power these workers provide has created the prodigious and extraordinary development boom across the region, and neighbouring countries are almost fully dependent on the labour markets of the Gulf to employ their working populations. For these reasons, the Gulf takes a central place in contemporary debates around migration and labour in the global economy.

This book attempts to bring together and explore these issues. The relationship between ‘citizen’ and ‘non-citizen’ holds immense significance for understanding the construction of class, gender, city and state in the Gulf, however too often these questions are occluded in too scholarly or overly-popular accounts of the region. Bringing together experts on the Gulf, Transit States confronts the precarious working conditions of migrants in a accessible, yet in-depth manner.

لا يخفى على اي مراقب تفاقم ظاهرة الخلل السكاني في دول مجلس التعاون العربية، وهي ظاهرة فريدة من نو... more لا يخفى على اي مراقب تفاقم ظاهرة الخلل السكاني في دول مجلس التعاون العربية، وهي ظاهرة فريدة من نوعها في العالم، حيث وصلت نسبة غير المواطنين في بعض هذه الدول إلى حوالي 90٪ من السكان. ونظرًا الى حدة هذه الظاهرة وفرادتها، تتضارب الآراء حولها بشدّة. ففيما يرى فيها كثيرون خطرًا يهدد هويّة شعوب المنطقة وأمنها، ينظر إليها آخرون من زاوية اضطهاد العمالة الوافدة وتعرّضها لأبشع أنواع العنصرية في الزمن المعاصر. ورغم تضارب العواطف والأهواء في شأن هذه القضية، بات ملحّاً إخضاعها لتحليل منهجي ونوعي ، وطرح حلول جذرية وعملية تساهم في التصدي لها لأنها، في رأينا، احدى القضايا المصيريّة الكبرى التي تواجه دول المجلس.
يضم هذا الكتاب أوراق ومناقشات اللقاء السنوي الرابع والثلاثين لمنتدى التنمية، والذي شارك فيه اكثر من 120 من خيرة كوادر أهل المنطقة للبحث في الاقتراحات والحلول للخلل السكاني المتفاقم في دول المجلس التعاون. ليس هدف هذا الكتاب سرد ظواهر الخلل السكاني وأسبابه فحسب، بل الغوص في ما هو أعمق من رصد ظاهرة الخلل السكاني، وتفكيك الأسباب الجذرية لهذا الخلل، حتى يتسنى لنا تفصيل سياسات وآليات تساهم، بداية، في وقف تفاقم هذا الخلل، ومن ثم مواجهة جذور المشكلة وحلها.

يسري الخليجُ في عروق هذا الاصدار، فهو معنيٌّ أساساً بالتطوّرات على الأراضي المحيطة بالجانب الغرب... more يسري الخليجُ في عروق هذا الاصدار، فهو معنيٌّ أساساً بالتطوّرات على الأراضي المحيطة بالجانب الغربي من ضفافه. لكن ما قد يميز هذا الاصدار عن غيره من الكتابات عن المنطقة؛ هو أنه كُتب كليّاً بأقلام من الخليج، ومصبّ اهتمامه وجمهوره الأساس الذين يُخاطبهم هم أهل الخليج.
كيف يُقارن المخزون الاستراتيجي للمياه في البحرين - الذي لا يتعدّى يوماً واحداً - مع باقي دول المنطقة؟ ولماذا فاقَ سعرُ برميل النفط - الذي تحتاجه الإمارات لموازنةِ ميزانيتها - 85 دولار؟ ما هي تبعات نسبة المواطنين المتدنّية بالمقارنة مع الأجانب في قطر والتي لا تبلغ نسبة 15%؟ وكم عدد القوّات العسكريّة الأجنبيّة التي تتخذ من قواعد في دولها مقرّاً لها؟ وما آخر تطوّرات ملف السّجناء السّياسيين في المنطقة؟
الإجابة على هذه الأسئلة هي هدفُ هذا الاصدار وفحواه، حيث نُركّز فيه على رصْد وتحليل التطوّرات والتغيّرات الجارية في أقطار مجلس التعاون لدول الخليج العربيّة، على مدى الأعوام 2011 -2013م، وتقييمها من منظور متطلّبات بناء الدّولة الحديثة، ووفق الطّبيعة العامة لهذه الأقطار.

يتناول الكتاب قضية الخلل السكاني في دول مجلس التعاون من منظور تحليلي جديد، حيث يركز على تطورات هذ... more يتناول الكتاب قضية الخلل السكاني في دول مجلس التعاون من منظور تحليلي جديد، حيث يركز على تطورات هذه القضية على مدى العقود الأخيرة وما لها من تبعات على المنطقة. على وجه الخصوص، تركّز الدراسة على سياسات المشاريع العقارية الضخمة والمدن الجديدة الموجهة بشكل رئيسي إلى المشتري الدولي في أربعة من دول المجلس: الإمارات والبحرين وعمان وقطر. في كل من هذه الدول، اتجهت سياسات ورؤى متخذي القرار نحو دعم هذه المشاريع علنًا، وتم وضعها في صلب واقع وتطلعات المنطقة. وبهذا تغيّرت رؤية ومعاملة متخذي القرار لظاهرة تدفق الوافدين إلى المنطقة من النّظر إليها كظاهرة عرضيّة لا بد منها، هدفها سد متطلبات الإنتاج، إلى تبني استقطاب الوافدين كهدف أساسي ينبغي تحفيزه وتشجيعه، بهدف زيادة الطلب الاقتصادي عليه في دول المجلس.