Agricultural drought in a future climate: results from 15 global climate models participating in the IPCC 4th assessment (original) (raw)

Abstract

This study examines the impact of greenhouse gas warming on soil moisture based on predictions of 15 global climate models by comparing the after-stabilization climate in the SRESA1b experiment with the pre-industrial control climate. The models are consistent in predicting summer dryness and winter wetness in only part of the northern middle and high latitudes. Slightly over half of the models predict year-round wetness in central Eurasia and/or year-round dryness in Siberia and mid-latitude Northeast Asia. One explanation is offered that relates such lack of seasonality to the carryover effect of soil moisture storage from season to season. In the tropics and subtropics, a decrease of soil moisture is the dominant response. The models are especially consistent in predicting drier soil over the southwest North America, Central America, the Mediterranean, Australia, and the South Africa in all seasons, and over much of the Amazon and West Africa in the June–July–August (JJA) season and the Asian monsoon region in the December–January–February (DJF) season. Since the only major areas of future wetness predicted with a high level of model consistency are part of the northern middle and high latitudes during the non-growing season, it is suggested that greenhouse gas warming will cause a worldwide agricultural drought. Over regions where there is considerable consistency among the analyzed models in predicting the sign of soil moisture changes, there is a wide range of magnitudes of the soil moisture response, indicating a high degree of model dependency in terrestrial hydrological sensitivity. A major part of the inter-model differences in the sensitivity of soil moisture response are attributable to differences in land surface parameterization.

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Acknowledgement

The author would like to acknowledge the international modeling groups for providing their data for analysis, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) for collecting and archiving the model data, the JSC/CLIVAR Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) and their Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) and Climate Simulation Panel for organizing the model data analysis activity, and the IPCC WG1 TSU for technical support. The IPCC Data Archive at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory is supported by the Office of Science, U.S. Department of Energy. Drs. Sonia Seneviratne and Richard Wetherald are thanked for their constructive comments that improved the quality of the paper.

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Authors and Affiliations

1. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Connecticut, 261 Glenbrook Road, U-2037, Storrs, CT, 06269, USA
   Guiling Wang

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Correspondence toGuiling Wang.

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Wang, G. Agricultural drought in a future climate: results from 15 global climate models participating in the IPCC 4th assessment.Clim Dyn 25, 739–753 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-005-0057-9

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• Received: 14 April 2005
• Accepted: 28 June 2005
• Published: 06 October 2005
• Issue date: December 2005
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-005-0057-9

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