Walter J Radermacher | Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (original) (raw)

Papers by Walter J Radermacher

KrV Kranken- und Pflegeversicherung, 2007

This article is based on a blog post for Data & Policy, an open access journal publishing researc... more This article is based on a blog post for Data & Policy, an open access journal publishing research, case studies, and discussion about the impact of data science on policy and governance. It takes the current corona pandemic as an opportunity to formulate important questions about the future of official statistics and to put them in a strategic and long-term perspective: which statistics will be produced in what form in the future by whom and for whom?

Statistical journal of the IAOS, Dec 10, 2019

The growing importance of statistical evidence, data and information for political decisions is r... more The growing importance of statistical evidence, data and information for political decisions is reflected in the handy and popular formulation 'Data for Policy' (D4P). Under this cover, well-known guiding themes, such as the modernisation of the public sector, or evidence-informed policy-making, are led to new solutions with new technologies and infinitely rich data sources. Data for Policy means more to official statistics than just new data, techniques and methods. It is not least a matter of securing an important function and position for official statistics in the Policy for Data of the future. In order to justify this position, it is necessary to have a clear understanding of the tasks of official statistics for the functioning of (democratic) societies, with a view to how these tasks have to be reinterpreted under changing conditions (above all because of digitisation and globalisation).

AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis

In the Corona pandemic, it became clear with burning clarity how much good quality statistics are... more In the Corona pandemic, it became clear with burning clarity how much good quality statistics are needed, and at the same time how unsuccessful we are at providing such statistics despite the existing technical and methodological possibilities and diverse data sources. It is therefore more than overdue to get to the bottom of the causes of these issues and to learn from the findings. This defines a high aspiration, namely that firstly a diagnosis is carried out in which the causes of the deficiencies with their interactions are identified as broadly as possible. Secondly, such a broad diagnosis should result in a therapy that includes a coherent strategy that can be generalised, i.e. that goes beyond the Corona pandemic.

Statistical Journal of the IAOS

Good statistics can do a lot of good: They help to base decisions on factual arguments, they can ... more Good statistics can do a lot of good: They help to base decisions on factual arguments, they can simplify conflict resolution. This requires an understanding of the opportunities and risks, the strengths and limitations of statistical facts. Overestimation leads to exaggerated expectations and disappointments, underestimation to missed opportunities, risks. Even worse is the trouble if facts are influenced or manipulated with political intentions or if even the impression of arbitrariness is created with so-called ‘alternative facts’. The very bad excesses of political misuse of statistics are carried out with intent and not negligently. Nevertheless, it can be argued that the virus of false and manipulated information flourishes when the statistical literacy of the population is at a low level. On the less serious scale of missed opportunities or too high expectations regarding statistics, there are, of course, also observations that suggest that an improvement in statistical liter...

Official Statistics 4.0, 2020

Official statistics have shown an excellent record in the role of trustworthy authority in the in... more Official statistics have shown an excellent record in the role of trustworthy authority in the intersection of three fundamental rights: privacy (the right of a person to privacy), freedom of information (the right of a person to open and transparent information) and statistics (the right of a person to live in an informed society). 200 years of experience and a good reputation are assets as important as the profession’s stock of methods, international standards and well-established routines and partnerships. It is now important to nurture, renew and increase this capital by making new partnerships with young and creative professionals from statistics, data sciences or other disciplines, opening up new data sources and providing new products and services. Preserving the assets and heritage of the past while being innovative is the great challenge.

Official Statistics 4.0, 2020

What the future has in store for us is, not easily predictable. Certainly, foresight does not lie... more What the future has in store for us is, not easily predictable. Certainly, foresight does not lie in the very nature of statisticians, who usually look in the rear-view mirror. Nevertheless, there are some trends or megatrends, the effects of which are not yet known in detail, to which one will undoubtedly have to adapt. Above all, because official statistics have the characteristics of an ocean liner whose course and speed can only be manoeuvred slowly, all trends must be interpreted in a forward-looking manner. If official statistics are to be sustained in their current position in five years’ time, then the necessary strategy must be established now. A simple continuation of the previous way of doing things, but including some ‘softer’ changes, is therefore not an option, even if this smooth manner of adaptation has been successful in the past. This chapter addresses the two megatrends of digitisation and globalisation. Obviously, it is not the purpose of this work to deal with their methodological, conceptual or technical aspects in this regard. Rather, it is about the consequences in terms of the statistical policy due to the changed statistical environment and conditions.

A comprehensive approach to measuring progress within the EU What makes some societies more succe... more A comprehensive approach to measuring progress within the EU What makes some societies more successful than others? How do we measure progress of societies? What should be monitored – in addition to GDP- to steer their policies? What is important for ensuring the well-being of its citizens? How to measure the impact for future generations and other societies? During the last two decades these questions have received increasing attention in the European Union (EU), and this as well within the context of the emerging interest for sustainable development as in the context of the debate around the Stiglitz-Sen-Fitoussi (SSF) report. The discussion on how to measure the well-being of individuals and societies has also been of primary interest to global public opinion. In addition the global crises of the last few years (food, energy and environmental, financial, economic and social) have made clear the urgent need to develop new statistical measures capable of guiding decision-makers in ...

Statistical Journal of the IAOS, 2021

If one assesses the quality of statistics according to whether they are fit for purpose, one must... more If one assesses the quality of statistics according to whether they are fit for purpose, one must put the question of this very purpose at the beginning, not only for the production of statistics, but also for their use and the literacy required. In this contribution, public discourse, political communication and decision-making processes are placed at the beginning of the argument. Official statistics work with a conceptual approach in which very much emphasis is placed on standardisation of products and processes, thus ensuring comparability of facts in regional and temporal terms. Only in this way can statistics be used as a common language to objectify conflicting issues. It is not about everyone being able to create his or her own statistical model of reality, quite the opposite. In this sense, public statistics are an infrastructure, comparable to rail transport. Moreover, statistical processes today are highly rationalised and industrialised, comparable to a factory. So, when...

Statistical journal of the IAOS, 2021

Indicators are part of daily life, modern politics and public debate in times of crises and their... more Indicators are part of daily life, modern politics and public debate in times of crises and their solutions. The question arises to what extent indicators embody a special form of statistical information, whether a separate indicator-chapter in statistical methodology is needed and what the content of this chapter should be. This paper considers different perspectives of indicators produced by official statistics agencies. Starting from the definition of indicators, it then discusses statistical quality, impact and interaction between producers and users of indicators. To introduce and illustrate the points made in the paper a choice of cases is used in order to derive the essential elements of a methodological framing. The overall objective is to enhance the added value of official statistics indicators as they are communicated and expected to lead to trustworthy evidence for policy making.

Symposium: Safeguarding Trust in Official Statistics – Launching a Code of Practice for the Irish... more Symposium: Safeguarding Trust in Official Statistics – Launching a Code of Practice for the Irish Statistical System

Official Statistics 4.0

This chapter is about the ‘making of’ official statistics. The processes, structures and actors t... more This chapter is about the ‘making of’ official statistics. The processes, structures and actors that are crucial for the high quality are to be presented. Official statistics are understood as industry that produces information. Consequently, in the presentation, the terms and concepts of modern management are used throughout. The first section starts with the business model of statistics with its dimensions of the processes (‘how’), the products (‘what’) and the producers (‘who’). It then deals with important overarching topics, such as quality management, national and international statistics and statistical confidentiality. With a look at the recent modernisation of the business model, the current status of Statistics 3.0 is summarised.

In this chapter, we open a large box with questions and reflections about the scientific backgrou... more In this chapter, we open a large box with questions and reflections about the scientific background of official statistics. First, it will be about knowledge: how can we know that we know what we know (or do not know)? Then we will shed light on the social position, role and function of statistics (in the sense of science, information and institution). Some episodes from the history of official statistics are used for clarification. Finally, two concrete and current applications will conclude the chapter: Indicators and Sustainable Development. But first, a methodology is presented that provides a holistic roadmap through this extremely broad topic, the ‘System of Profound Knowledge’ by W. E. Deming.

Statistical Journal of the IAOS

KrV Kranken- und Pflegeversicherung, 2007

This article is based on a blog post for Data & Policy, an open access journal publishing researc... more This article is based on a blog post for Data & Policy, an open access journal publishing research, case studies, and discussion about the impact of data science on policy and governance. It takes the current corona pandemic as an opportunity to formulate important questions about the future of official statistics and to put them in a strategic and long-term perspective: which statistics will be produced in what form in the future by whom and for whom?

Statistical journal of the IAOS, Dec 10, 2019

The growing importance of statistical evidence, data and information for political decisions is r... more The growing importance of statistical evidence, data and information for political decisions is reflected in the handy and popular formulation 'Data for Policy' (D4P). Under this cover, well-known guiding themes, such as the modernisation of the public sector, or evidence-informed policy-making, are led to new solutions with new technologies and infinitely rich data sources. Data for Policy means more to official statistics than just new data, techniques and methods. It is not least a matter of securing an important function and position for official statistics in the Policy for Data of the future. In order to justify this position, it is necessary to have a clear understanding of the tasks of official statistics for the functioning of (democratic) societies, with a view to how these tasks have to be reinterpreted under changing conditions (above all because of digitisation and globalisation).

AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis

In the Corona pandemic, it became clear with burning clarity how much good quality statistics are... more In the Corona pandemic, it became clear with burning clarity how much good quality statistics are needed, and at the same time how unsuccessful we are at providing such statistics despite the existing technical and methodological possibilities and diverse data sources. It is therefore more than overdue to get to the bottom of the causes of these issues and to learn from the findings. This defines a high aspiration, namely that firstly a diagnosis is carried out in which the causes of the deficiencies with their interactions are identified as broadly as possible. Secondly, such a broad diagnosis should result in a therapy that includes a coherent strategy that can be generalised, i.e. that goes beyond the Corona pandemic.

Statistical Journal of the IAOS

Good statistics can do a lot of good: They help to base decisions on factual arguments, they can ... more Good statistics can do a lot of good: They help to base decisions on factual arguments, they can simplify conflict resolution. This requires an understanding of the opportunities and risks, the strengths and limitations of statistical facts. Overestimation leads to exaggerated expectations and disappointments, underestimation to missed opportunities, risks. Even worse is the trouble if facts are influenced or manipulated with political intentions or if even the impression of arbitrariness is created with so-called ‘alternative facts’. The very bad excesses of political misuse of statistics are carried out with intent and not negligently. Nevertheless, it can be argued that the virus of false and manipulated information flourishes when the statistical literacy of the population is at a low level. On the less serious scale of missed opportunities or too high expectations regarding statistics, there are, of course, also observations that suggest that an improvement in statistical liter...

Official Statistics 4.0, 2020

Official statistics have shown an excellent record in the role of trustworthy authority in the in... more Official statistics have shown an excellent record in the role of trustworthy authority in the intersection of three fundamental rights: privacy (the right of a person to privacy), freedom of information (the right of a person to open and transparent information) and statistics (the right of a person to live in an informed society). 200 years of experience and a good reputation are assets as important as the profession’s stock of methods, international standards and well-established routines and partnerships. It is now important to nurture, renew and increase this capital by making new partnerships with young and creative professionals from statistics, data sciences or other disciplines, opening up new data sources and providing new products and services. Preserving the assets and heritage of the past while being innovative is the great challenge.

Official Statistics 4.0, 2020

What the future has in store for us is, not easily predictable. Certainly, foresight does not lie... more What the future has in store for us is, not easily predictable. Certainly, foresight does not lie in the very nature of statisticians, who usually look in the rear-view mirror. Nevertheless, there are some trends or megatrends, the effects of which are not yet known in detail, to which one will undoubtedly have to adapt. Above all, because official statistics have the characteristics of an ocean liner whose course and speed can only be manoeuvred slowly, all trends must be interpreted in a forward-looking manner. If official statistics are to be sustained in their current position in five years’ time, then the necessary strategy must be established now. A simple continuation of the previous way of doing things, but including some ‘softer’ changes, is therefore not an option, even if this smooth manner of adaptation has been successful in the past. This chapter addresses the two megatrends of digitisation and globalisation. Obviously, it is not the purpose of this work to deal with their methodological, conceptual or technical aspects in this regard. Rather, it is about the consequences in terms of the statistical policy due to the changed statistical environment and conditions.

A comprehensive approach to measuring progress within the EU What makes some societies more succe... more A comprehensive approach to measuring progress within the EU What makes some societies more successful than others? How do we measure progress of societies? What should be monitored – in addition to GDP- to steer their policies? What is important for ensuring the well-being of its citizens? How to measure the impact for future generations and other societies? During the last two decades these questions have received increasing attention in the European Union (EU), and this as well within the context of the emerging interest for sustainable development as in the context of the debate around the Stiglitz-Sen-Fitoussi (SSF) report. The discussion on how to measure the well-being of individuals and societies has also been of primary interest to global public opinion. In addition the global crises of the last few years (food, energy and environmental, financial, economic and social) have made clear the urgent need to develop new statistical measures capable of guiding decision-makers in ...

Statistical Journal of the IAOS, 2021

If one assesses the quality of statistics according to whether they are fit for purpose, one must... more If one assesses the quality of statistics according to whether they are fit for purpose, one must put the question of this very purpose at the beginning, not only for the production of statistics, but also for their use and the literacy required. In this contribution, public discourse, political communication and decision-making processes are placed at the beginning of the argument. Official statistics work with a conceptual approach in which very much emphasis is placed on standardisation of products and processes, thus ensuring comparability of facts in regional and temporal terms. Only in this way can statistics be used as a common language to objectify conflicting issues. It is not about everyone being able to create his or her own statistical model of reality, quite the opposite. In this sense, public statistics are an infrastructure, comparable to rail transport. Moreover, statistical processes today are highly rationalised and industrialised, comparable to a factory. So, when...

Statistical journal of the IAOS, 2021

Indicators are part of daily life, modern politics and public debate in times of crises and their... more Indicators are part of daily life, modern politics and public debate in times of crises and their solutions. The question arises to what extent indicators embody a special form of statistical information, whether a separate indicator-chapter in statistical methodology is needed and what the content of this chapter should be. This paper considers different perspectives of indicators produced by official statistics agencies. Starting from the definition of indicators, it then discusses statistical quality, impact and interaction between producers and users of indicators. To introduce and illustrate the points made in the paper a choice of cases is used in order to derive the essential elements of a methodological framing. The overall objective is to enhance the added value of official statistics indicators as they are communicated and expected to lead to trustworthy evidence for policy making.

Symposium: Safeguarding Trust in Official Statistics – Launching a Code of Practice for the Irish... more Symposium: Safeguarding Trust in Official Statistics – Launching a Code of Practice for the Irish Statistical System

Official Statistics 4.0

This chapter is about the ‘making of’ official statistics. The processes, structures and actors t... more This chapter is about the ‘making of’ official statistics. The processes, structures and actors that are crucial for the high quality are to be presented. Official statistics are understood as industry that produces information. Consequently, in the presentation, the terms and concepts of modern management are used throughout. The first section starts with the business model of statistics with its dimensions of the processes (‘how’), the products (‘what’) and the producers (‘who’). It then deals with important overarching topics, such as quality management, national and international statistics and statistical confidentiality. With a look at the recent modernisation of the business model, the current status of Statistics 3.0 is summarised.

In this chapter, we open a large box with questions and reflections about the scientific backgrou... more In this chapter, we open a large box with questions and reflections about the scientific background of official statistics. First, it will be about knowledge: how can we know that we know what we know (or do not know)? Then we will shed light on the social position, role and function of statistics (in the sense of science, information and institution). Some episodes from the history of official statistics are used for clarification. Finally, two concrete and current applications will conclude the chapter: Indicators and Sustainable Development. But first, a methodology is presented that provides a holistic roadmap through this extremely broad topic, the ‘System of Profound Knowledge’ by W. E. Deming.

Statistical Journal of the IAOS