  [**Tags**|baseball]So an intriguing question to me, now that the Cubs are defending World Champions, is who replaces the North Siders as the most cursed franchise in baseball? The obvious answer is the Cleveland Indians, who have gone the longest since their last title (69 years). But what about teams that are always bad, or never make the playoffs, or always make the playoffs and then flame out? So of course, I went to the numbers, and I found the following, from most cursed to least.1. San Diego Padres2. Milwaukee Brewers3. Atlanta Braves4. Seattle Mariners5. Houston Astros6. Cleveland Indians7. Philadelphia Phillies8. Miami Marlins9. Colorado Rockies10. Los Angeles Angels11. Chicago White Sox12. Texas Rangers13. Pittsburgh Pirates14. Cincinatti Reds15. Minnesota Twins16. Arizona Diamondbacks17. Baltimore Orioles18. Oakland Athletics19. Tampa Bay Rays20. Detroit Tigers21. New York Mets22. Toronto Blue Jays23. Los Angeles Dodgers24. Chicago Cubs25. Kansas City Royals26. Washington Nationals27. San Francisco Giants28. St. Louis Cardinals29. Boston Red Sox30. New York YankeesSo how did we get here?The key mathematical component in the equation is a z score, which allows you to compare different populations of numbers. I basically grouped z scores for three different groups of variables, then added them together.The first set of variables deal with overall championships. I have two variables here. First is the obvious one - how long has the team been waiting for a title? The Indians are clear winners (losers?) here, with a wait of 69 years, good for a z score of 3.25 and change when compared with the whole population. The issue for the Indians is that this is the only variable where they lead. The next variable in this group is the number of years per title (i.e., frequency of championships over the course of the franchise). Here the winner is actually the Philadelphia Phillies, who have won once every 67 years on average, for a z score of 2.53 (the Indians clock in with once every 58 years).The second set of variables deal with overall records. There are also two variables here. The first variable is the overall record, where the Miami Marlins, with a .442 winning percentage, are the worst (the Indians, surprisingly, are over .500 as a franchise). The second variable here is the number of years since the last .500 season. The Marlins are also the worst here, having not won more than 81 games in a season in eight years. (The Indians obviously were well over break even last year).The third set of variables I would call competitiveness, and encompasses four different factors. The first is number of years per playoff appearance (i.e. frequency with which the team makes the playoffs). At 12.89 years per playoff team, the Chicago White Sox lead here, while the Indians make the playoffs once every 9.667 years. The z scores are all within 1 here, though. The second variable is number of years since the last playoff berth. Again, the Indians were in the playoffs this year, which is a far sight better than the Seattle Mariners, who have gone 16 years without a playoff team (a whopping z score of 3.901). The third variable is the number of years since the last World Series appearance, where again the Indians are at 0 while the poor Mariners have gone 40 years without an appearance (another high z score at 2.487). The final variable is the number of playoff appearances per title, which I use as a proxy for the proclivity of the team to break their fans' hearts. Here I was surprised to find the Atlanta Braves on top, with one title in 19 playoff appearances (z score of 6.69), whereas the Indians average a title once every six appearances. So Indians fans may have had a long, hard wait, but they have at least found some level of recent success.Other methodological notes: obviously, some teams (like the Mariners) have no titles; in these cases I have counted the total number of years the team has been in existence as the variable instead of dividing by zero for the frequency numbers. Also, a number of teams have obviously moved or been renamed. For teams who have stayed in the same city, I have used all the data from their time in that city regardless of whether they were, for example, the Boston Pilgrims or the Boston Red Sox. For teams that have moved (i.e., the Dodgers), I have only used the data from their current city, on the theory that nobody in Philadelphia roots for the A's anymore, and so you can't count Oakland's record as part of the suffering that is theirs alone.Got a complaint? Leave a comment. |
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