Dimitri Zenghelis | London School of Economics and Political Science (original) (raw)

Papers by Dimitri Zenghelis

Finanzas y desarrollo: publicación trimestral del Fondo Monetario Internacional y del Banco Mundial, 2021

Global Environment Outlook – GEO-6, 2019

Social Science Research Network, 2021

Both the physical and transition-related impacts of climate change pose substantial macroeconomic... more Both the physical and transition-related impacts of climate change pose substantial macroeconomic risks. Yet, markets still lack credible estimates of how climate change will affect debt sustainability, sovereign creditworthiness and the public finances of major economies. We present a taxonomy for tracing the physical and transition impacts of climate change through to impacts on sovereign risk. We then apply the taxonomy to the UK's potential transition to net zero. Meeting internationally agreed climate targets will require an unprecedented structural transformation of the global economy over the next two or three decades. The changing landscape of risks warrants new risk management and hedging strategies to contain climate risk and minimise the impact of asset stranding and asset devaluation. Yet, conditional on action being taken early, the opportunities from managing a net zero transition would substantially outweigh the costs.

Contrary to some predictions, Britain's economy has not crashed in the two years since the EU ref... more Contrary to some predictions, Britain's economy has not crashed in the two years since the EU referendum. But growth has slowed markedly, productivity is down and investment is on hold. Dimitri Zenghelis (LSE) looks at the effect the prolonged uncertainty about future trade arrangements is having on the economy. In September 2016, a few months after the UK referendum vote to leave the European Union, I argued in this blog that it was too soon to judge the impact on the UK economy. At that time, GDP growth was accelerating and I warned it was too early to talk of a Brexit boost. Almost two years on, the time is ripe to revisit the data and make a more informed assessment of the impact of Brexit on the trajectory of the UK economy.

Both Brexit and the financial crisis highlight why economists should admit they can't always get ... more Both Brexit and the financial crisis highlight why economists should admit they can't always get it right blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/economists-should-admit-they-cant-always-get-it-right/ The Bank of England's chief economist recently said his profession was "to some degree in crisis" over its failure to predict the 2008 financial crash and-to a lesser extent-the apparent resilience of the UK economy after the Brexit vote. Dimitri Zenghelis looks at how economic forecasting works and explains that its models are not infallible. Economists should be honest about the limitations of their predictions. 'The Bank of England has admitted to a Michael Fish moment-but economists have plenty to learn from weather forecasters'. So said London's free business newspaper City AM this week, and with some justification. The headline referred to a comment made by Andy Haldane, the Bank of England's chief economist, who recently spoke of economists having their Michael Fish moment. For non-native Brits or those under the age of 40, the analogue needs explaining. It relates to an infamous occasion in October 1987 when the BBC's star weather forecaster, Michael Fish, began his afternoon bulletin with the words "apparently a woman rang the BBC and said she heard there was a hurricane on the way, well if you are watching don't worry there isn't… most of the strong winds will be down over Spain." Within hours hurricane force winds devastated southeast England, levelling buildings, cutting off power in the capital and felling entire forests. Poor Michael Fish, a first-rate forecaster and presenter, has since had his name associated indelibly with humiliating prediction errors.

This policy paper is intended to inform decision-makers in the public, private and third sectors.... more This policy paper is intended to inform decision-makers in the public, private and third sectors. It has been reviewed by at least two internal referees before publication. The views expressed in this paper represent those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the host institutions or funders.

Climate Change and Law Collection, Feb 27, 2018

Routledge eBooks, May 11, 2018

This chapter examines the issue of stranded assets and the likely energy transition from a macro-... more This chapter examines the issue of stranded assets and the likely energy transition from a macro-economic perspective. It discusses why stranded assets can be seen as an opportunity–refreshing capital stocks, reducing pollution, and moving closer to technological frontiers. The chapter looks at how economies change, using the period running up to and after the Industrial Revolution in the UK as a case study in how embracing change can lead to technological and structural transformation and rapid growth and development. It also looks at the historical limitations to resource-based development and the importance of managing change effectively before introducing the risks associated with a more rapid and contagious shift to a low-carbon network, which can leave companies, sectors, and regions caught out with stranded and unproductive assets. The chapter also discusses how the main barriers to yielding the opportunities and limiting the risks from transformative change are mainly institutional and come from vested interests seeking to delay change and propagate inertia

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Sep 1, 2021

Negative interest rates are an opportunity for the UK to invest in sustainable infrastructure blo... more Negative interest rates are an opportunity for the UK to invest in sustainable infrastructure blogs.lse.ac.uk /businessreview/2016/10/14/negative-interest-rates-are-an-opportunity-for-the-uk-to-invest-insustainable-infrastructure/ London, by jo.sau, under a CC-BY-2.0 licence The new UK Government under Prime Minister Theresa May has committed to boosting UK productivity and addressing the widening wealth gap. Achieving all this will require the right investments by both the public and private sectors at a time of heightened economic uncertainty. The UK Government could improve economic growth by taking advantage of negative real interest rates to borrow money to invest in sustainable infrastructure and innovation for energy, transport and cities, as I point out in two new reports. Such a programme could boost economic growth without inflation, increase financial returns to private sector investors-including household pensions, reduce the risks of destabilising price 'bubbles' developing in the housing market and elsewhere and help to secure the stability of public finances. It would also help to bridge any shortfall in investment that might arise from the referendum vote to leave the European Union. Weak productivity growth has meant that even though UK unemployment has remained low since the financial crash, real wages have fallen. Attempts by the Bank of England to inject liquidity into the economy and offset the Government's fiscal austerity have widened the wealth gap between rich and poor. Investors' 'search for yield' in a low-interest-rate environment has pushed up asset prices in bonds, equities and especially housing towards record levels. While those hardest hit by fiscal austerity are the poorest in society who rely directly on public expenditure, the beneficiaries of rising asset prices from easy money are disproportionately those at the top of the income ladder. A common feature underlying these factors is a shortfall in UK investment and a surplus in global desired net saving. Unlikely as it may seem, this environment of negative real interest rates provides an opportunity for the Government, but it is unlikely to last forever. The UK Government risks missing an open opportunity to boost economic growth by investing public funds in productive infrastructure. Some in the Government worry that 'unsustainable' borrowing might deter investors, but the collapse in UK 1/3 Dimitri Zenghelis is Co-Head of Policy at LSE's Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, and formerly head of Economic Forecasting at HM Treasury.

Staying in the EU would not be perfect. But it's the best deal on offer to the UK Is it time for ... more Staying in the EU would not be perfect. But it's the best deal on offer to the UK Is it time for the British Parliament to compromise and vote through Theresa May's Brexit deal? Dimitri Zenghelis argues that 'no deal' is not the only viable alternative to a deeply flawed deal. Yes, a second referendum would divide the country-but it is already divided. People are now in a better position to understand the choices on offer and many would like to be done with Brexit. Under May's deal, negotiations will drag on for years.

A green trade deal can save the Brexit negotiations The combination of COVID-19 and the need for ... more A green trade deal can save the Brexit negotiations The combination of COVID-19 and the need for a post-Brexit trade deal provides an opportunity to push for the decarbonisation of the economy. It's time for a post-Brexit green trade deal, argues Dimitri Zenghelis (LSE). If done correctly, such a deal could give all of Europe a comparative advantage with regard to resource efficiency and decarbonisation globally.

The world will never again build cities as rapidly as it does this century. If we are serious abo... more The world will never again build cities as rapidly as it does this century. If we are serious about limiting global warming, tackling air pollution and promoting innovative, resource-efficient growth, there is a narrow window of opportunity

This seminar presented research findings from LSE’s work on the UNEP’s Green Economy Report and t... more This seminar presented research findings from LSE’s work on the UNEP’s Green Economy Report and the Economics of Green Cities Programme, which aim to understand the opportunities and constraints of transitioning to a green urban economy.

Dimitri Zenghelis explains the complex limitations faced by economic models that can serve to slo... more Dimitri Zenghelis explains the complex limitations faced by economic models that can serve to slow down the transition to a sustainable economy

ElEctricity: a thiNg aNd aN idEa Deyan Sudjic global ProblEms: city solutioNs Philipp Rode, Nick ... more ElEctricity: a thiNg aNd aN idEa Deyan Sudjic global ProblEms: city solutioNs Philipp Rode, Nick Stern and Dimitri Zenghelis thE bENEFits oF dENsity Edward Glaeser aFtEr thE car John Urry u.s. mEtros aNd thE grEEN EcoNomy Bruce Katz loNdoN's tEch-city Max Nathan urbaNisiNg tEchNology Saskia Sassen thE social NExus Carlo Ratti and Anthony Townsend thE stuPEFyiNg smart city Richard Sennett sKEWiNg thE city Nerea Calvillo, Orit Halpern, Jesse LeCavalier and Wolfgang Pietsch-The Milgram Group digital collaboratioN Dan Hill ENErgEtic sociEty Maarten Hajer and Hiddo Huitzing thE Politics oF climatE chaNgE Anthony Giddens data gEograPhy oF ENErgy coNsumPtioN ENErgy, ElEctricity aNd EmissioNs citiEs aNd thE grEEN traNsitioN urbaN agE citiEs PattErNs oF chaNgE comPariNg citiEs rEsidENtial/EmPloymENt dENsity maPPiNg accEssibility PattErNs oF traVEl chaNgiNg loNdoN urbaN agE ElEctric city coNFErENcE loNdoN 6-7 dEcEmbEr 2012 orgaNisEd by lsE citiEs at thE loNdoN school oF EcoNomics aNd dEutschE baNK's alFrEd hErrhausEN sociEty Electricity has allowed buildings to be turned inside-out (Lloyd's of London)

Diversification and Cooperation in a Decarbonizing World: Climate Strategies for Fossil Fuel-Dependent Countries

Oxford Scholarship Online, 2017

Over the next fifty years, most new wealth will be accumulated in cities; this includes physical ... more Over the next fifty years, most new wealth will be accumulated in cities; this includes physical infrastructure (road, rail, electricity, telecommunications and sanitation), productive capital (houses, offices and factories) and knowledge capital (skills, knowhow and ideas). The development of cities will also determine humanity’s ability to preserve natural capital. Consequently, urbanization deserves urgent attention from policymakers, academics and businesses worldwide. The current global urbanization project is peaking and within a century it will be all but over. The richest and fastest growing cities are those which increasingly specialize in knowledge-based sectors, facilitating the flow of knowledge across people, institutions and enterprises. Well-governed, connected, clean and uncongested cities are likely to attract productive capital, talent and creativity. But the consequences of bad governance and inaction over planning can stymie performance and erode human welfare fo...

A unique window is now open. Three actions will help lock in better growth and avoid the dangerou... more A unique window is now open. Three actions will help lock in better growth and avoid the dangerous models of the past, write James Rydge, Nicholas Stern and Dimitri Zenghelis