Maria Sharmina | The University of Manchester (original) (raw)

Papers by Maria Sharmina

Marine Policy, 2019

This paper addresses the evolution of maritime transport demand in response to global climate cha... more This paper addresses the evolution of maritime transport demand in response to global climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts. The complexity of the global shipping system makes predicting volumes and patterns of long-term future international maritime trade a challenging task which is best explored by building scenarios rather than ‘precise’ forecasts. We present four contrasting scenarios of international maritime trade out to 2050, available in high resolution in terms of the dimensions studied (regions, countries, commodities, decades), which are consistent with high and low levels of global CO2 mitigation and associated climate impacts. The scenarios project trade increasing to between two and four times the 2010 value by 2050. Scenarios characterised by low temperature increases and material intensity lead to the lower bound trade increase with high trade growth in bioenergy commodities. Unfettered production growth across countries, high temperature increases and material intensity lead to a quadrupling of trade across energy, containerised, dry and wet commodities. The estimated range is lower than those in existing scenarios and forecasts in which globalisation is assumed to continue apace. The scenarios which project the highest growth presupposes both limited decarbonisation (in contrast to the Paris Agreement) and continued growth in expanding markets. The scenarios therefore become a valuable policy and decision-making tool to address technological and operational change required of the shipping sector, if it is to deliver mitigation in line with the Paris Agreement.

The service sector has the potential to play an instrumental role in the shift towards circular e... more The service sector has the potential to play an instrumental role in the shift towards circular economy due to its strategic position between manufacturers and end-users. However, there is a paucity of supporting methodologies and real-life applications to demonstrate how service-oriented companies can implement circular economy principles in daily business practice. This paper addresses this gap by analysing the potential of service-oriented companies in the information and communication technology (ICT) sector to build and implement circular economy business models. To this end, the Backcasting and Eco-design for the Circular Economy (BECE) framework is applied in an ICT firm. BECE, previously developed and demonstrated for product-oriented applications, has been developed further here for applications in the service sector. By shifting the focus from a product-oriented approach to a user-centred eco-design, the paper shows how ICT firms can identify, evaluate and prioritise sustainable business model innovations for circular economy. The two most promising business model innovations are explored strategically with the aim of designing circular economy models consistent with the company's priorities of customer satisfaction and profitability. The findings suggest that ICT companies may be able to support the deployment of a circular economy in the service-oriented technology sector. Importantly, micro and small organisations can play a fundamental role if provided with macro-level support to overcome company-level barriers. Finally, the BECE framework is shown to be a valuable resource to explore, analyse and guide the implementation of circular economy opportunities in service-oriented organisations. Further research to verify the application of the findings to other service-oriented organisations is recommended.

About half of the world's oil supply, a fifth of coal supply and a tenth of natural gas supply ar... more About half of the world's oil supply, a fifth of coal supply and a tenth of natural gas supply are traded by ship. Accordingly, any significant shift in the size and shape of the global energy system has important consequences for shipping, which underpins international trade and supports economic development. The Paris Agreement requires an acceleration of the drive towards energy system decarbonisation. Yet, the International Maritime Organisation's understanding of the future is more in line with the high-carbon scenarios analysed here. This paper is a first comprehensive and global assessment of implications of fundamental changes to global and regional energy systems for international shipping, under-researched in energy scenarios consistent with deep decarbonisation. It concludes that, despite uncertainties (particularly with negative emission technologies), fossil fuel trade by the middle of the century will almost certainly be significantly lower under low-carbon than under high-carbon scenarios, and (for oil and coal) lower than in 2012. As to bioenergy and captured carbon dioxide, while their supply is expected to increase during a low-carbon transition, worldwide shipped trade in these commodities will not necessarily grow, based on the analysis in this paper. In other words, if the low-carbon futures envisioned in the Paris Agreement materialise, energy-related shipping will likely decline (by a quarter for oil and by 50% for coal in the median < 2 °C scenarios by 2050), with significant ramifications for policies and regulation in the shipping sector and international trade.

Despite the high profile of climate change in scientific and policy discourse, the Russian govern... more Despite the high profile of climate change in scientific and policy discourse, the Russian government has thus far failed to commit to an emission reduction target based on the latest science. Given Russia is a key supplier of fossil fuels, a major greenhouse gas emitter, and climate impacts on its vast territory likely to have far-reaching consequences, this contextual research shows that the country's current policies fall woefully short of what is required to implement the Paris Agreement. To support Russia in developing informed, internally consistent and scientifically literate energy policies, this paper presents low-carbon emission trajectories commensurate with the 2 °C goal, using stakeholder-informed backcasting. The results illustrate that even if Russia's CO2 emissions peak in 2017, a reduction rate of at least 9% per year between 2020 and 2030 is required to meet a 2°C budget constraint. These sustained rates are in excess of anything achieved globally or, indeed, deemed possible within most studies. Such emission reductions would involve unprecedented material changes to Russia's energy system, including both rapidly cutting energy demand and building extensive low-carbon infrastructures. Nevertheless, failure to transform Russia's existing policies will likely have global repercussions for achieving the Paris Agreement's goals.

Journal of Industrial Ecology, 2017

The circular economy (CE) is essential for decoupling economic growth from resource consumption a... more The circular economy (CE) is essential for decoupling economic growth from resource consumption and environmental impacts. However, effective implementation requires a systemic change across supply chains, involving both technological and nontechnological innovations. Frameworks are beginning to emerge to foster CE thinking in organizations. However, literature review carried out as part of this research has revealed gaps in their ability to fulfil CE requirements. Furthermore, few frameworks provide support on how CE requirements may be implemented. To address these issues, this article presents a new framework, BECE (backcasting and eco-design for the circular economy), to ensure that businesses can implement CE requirements more readily. BECE empowers organizations to tackle the CE holistically by embedding the concept into corporate decision making and by bringing operational and systems thinking together, thus increasing the likelihood of successful implementation. The potential of the BECE framework was tested through a pilot workshop focusing on the development of a CE business model through redesign of products and supply chains. Using vacuum cleaners as an illustrative case study, several product design and supply-chain alternatives were identified, including the development of scenarios and action plans for their implementation at the business level. Although the case study focuses on a particular product, the BECE framework is generic and applicable across different products and business sectors.

Environmental Science & Policy, 2016

Russia is the fifth highest emitter of carbon dioxide, having been in the top five for at least s... more Russia is the fifth highest emitter of carbon dioxide, having been in the top five for at least six decades. However, thus far no in-depth study has estimated Russia’s cumulative emissions in the context of the global 2C constraint. This is despite the IPCC reiterating the importance of cumulative emissions. Translating the global 2C temperature commitment into a meaningful national context, this paper derives and evaluates 2C-compatible carbon budgets for Russia, based on a range of apportionments. The work contributes to the debate by providing a deeper analysis of the principles of allocating carbon emissions to Russia. This analysis demonstrates how, if Russia is to make a fair contribution to global emission reductions in line with 2C, its 2011-2100 cumulative emissions should stay within 20-26 Gt CO2, commensurate with a 37-52% probability of exceeding 2C. If Russia continues to emit carbon dioxide at current annual levels, this budget will be “spent” by the mid-2020s. The carbon budget estimated here for Russia appears technically feasible, if extremely challenging. Despite continuing to assert itself as a fossil fuel superpower, Russia has a wealth of opportunities for full and early decarbonization, including the potential to become a net exporter of renewable energy.

Background: GHG budgets highlight a need for urgency, yet analyses are often CO2-focused, with le... more Background: GHG budgets highlight a need for urgency, yet analyses are often CO2-focused, with less attention paid to non-CO2. Results: In this paper, scenarios are used to explore non-CO2 drivers and barriers to their mitigation, drawing out implications for CO2 management. Results suggest that even optimistic technological and consumption-related developments lead to on-going increases in global N2O, largely to improve food security within a changing climate. This contrasts with existing analysis, where lower levels of N2O by 2050 are projected. Conclusions: As avoiding ‘2ｰC’ limits the emissions budget, constraints on reducing non-CO2 add pressure to energy system decarbonization. Overlooking how a changing climate and rising consumption restricts efforts to curb non-CO2 will result in policies aiming to avoid 2ｰC falling short of the mark.

With climate change, an increasingly important focus of scientific and policy discourse, the Russ... more With climate change, an increasingly important focus of scientific and policy discourse, the Russian government has aimed to position the country as one of the leaders of the global process for addressing climate change. This article reviews a breadth of literature to analyze the politico-economic situation in Russia with regard to international climate change negotiations, related domestic policies, societal attitudes, and climatic change impacts on Russia's territory. The analysis demonstrates how Russia has a pivotal role in influencing the future direction of international climate change mitigation and adaptation. Not only is Russia predisposed geographically to the impacts of climate change, but also it is a major emitter of greenhouse gases and a global supplier of fossil fuels, and remains a major force in international politics. This unique confluence of circumstances leaves Russia with a challenging dilemma. It can choose to acquiesce to short-term political and economic considerations, adopt weak mitigation measures, and face potentially significant impacts. Or it can apply its considerable attributes and powers to initiate an epoch of international action to secure a low-carbon climate-resilient future. Although the former will see Russia subsumed into the international malaise on climate change, the latter may both quench the nation's ‘thirst for greatness’ and fill the void of international leadership. WIREs Clim Change 2013, 4:373–396. doi: 10.1002/wcc.236

** This is a summary, full paper to be published soon! ** Background: Land is a valuable and f... more ** This is a summary, full paper to be published soon! **

Background: Land is a valuable and fixed resource that provides a wide range of goods and services to society. The ability of land managers and the capacity of land to provide these services is becoming more difficult as both population and climate variability increase. In recent years competing and contradictory policy trajectories have emerged in the UK raising questions about how land can be managed to meet demands, now and in the future.

Aims: To establish an agenda on resilient land-use to support integrated policy- and decision-making. By providing a synthesis and critique of existing policies relating to the nexus in the UK; exploring the implications for land-use in the UK within the context of key European and global trends; and identifying key questions for future management, policy and modelling.

Policy challenges: The insularity and short-sightedness of policy is likely to jeopardise the resilience of the UK to climate change impacts, particularly against a backdrop of increasing and competing demands.

1. Fragmented policy and planning: policies and planning models poorly account for interconnections, synergies and trade-off's between nexus components.

2. Disjointed governance: energy, food and water are largely managed in isolation, and often in competition. Similar disconnection exists even within sectors.

3. Limited spatial scale: due to the lack of spatial granularity models and tools are inadequate to incorporate local capacity (e.g. finance, politics, and precedence) and goals (e.g. poverty alleviation, water scarcity/flood risk). Impacts of policies on other countries are rarely acknowledged raising concerns about equity.

4. Limited temporal scope: longer-term interactions and interdependencies are not considered and intergenerational trade-off's neglected.

Resilience: At the nexus resilience is made even more complex and challenging due to differentiated scale and scope of components, and multiple different agendas. This is evident in debates on shale gas. Resilience in the form of energy security is used to justify exploration and extraction yet the long-term implications for water are uncertain; both in terms of demand, quality and potential consequences for local hydrological conditions.

Russia’s stance on climate change action is ambivalent. On the one hand, the country has both sig... more Russia’s stance on climate change action is ambivalent. On the one hand, the country has both signed up to relevant international treaties and introduced domestic legislation. The Russian president has decreed a national emission reduction target. On the other hand, the government continues to support the hydrocarbon industry. Most recently, tax breaks for shale oil have led to a series of new exploration contracts with international investors. A gas supply deal with China has been fast tracked and signed after a decade of negotiations. However closer scrutiny reveals that the country’s weak commitment to emission reductions goes against its own interests. Strategically, there is little rationale for Russia not to go low-carbon. This commentary discusses several of the many reasons and opportunities for the country to decarbonize.

This report offers an overview of greenhouse gas emissions profile of coal bed methane production... more This report offers an overview of greenhouse gas emissions profile of coal bed methane production from the existing academic and grey literature. It does not provide any new empirical evidence although additional calculations have been performed to allow for comparison between studies and with data for other sources of natural gas. Having examined the available literature, the report identifies where there are gaps that are relevant to UK development of CBM.

What is the disparity between the climate and resource challenges we face and the measures in pla... more What is the disparity between the climate and resource challenges we face and the measures in place to meet them? This special issue addresses that question by outlining various aspects of current problems, more sustainable alternatives and elements of transition pathways to achieve a more sustainable future. The papers in this special issue each proceed from identifying unsustainable development on a specific level, space, region and/or amongst specific actors, to then highlighting facets of a potential alternative future state, either in the form of resolving that particular problem or as a vision of an overarching sustainable future. With regard to transitions, each article refers to shifts in governance approaches needed to achieve these alternative futures. This can be a transition specific to a certain level, space, region or actor or a transition across these multiple dimensions. A core theme cutting across most of the articles is the need for greater participation as well as the necessity to find solutions to the challenges such participation poses. Rather than attempting to paint a complete or definitive picture of a sustainable future, this special issue aims to shed light on the varied pathways towards different parts of such futures, to stimulate debate on the interface of science and policy and to inspire others who are on the same track.

This report, commissioned by The Co-operative, is an update on our January report, Shale gas: a p... more This report, commissioned by The Co-operative, is an update on our January report, Shale gas: a provisional assessment of climate change and environmental impacts (Wood et al 2011). Whilst some of the analysis remains relatively unchanged from the original document, other areas having undergone important revision, not least because industry estimates of shale gas reserves at the UK and global scales have markedly increased. For example in the UK industry reserve estimates published for a single licensing area are an order of magnitude greater than national estimates published by DECC in December 2010. New papers detailing fugitive emissions have also emerged raising concerns that shale gas production may involve greater greenhouse gas emissions than previously thought. The analysis within this new report addresses two specific issues associated with the extraction and combustion of shale gas. Firstly, it explores the environmental risks and climate change implications arising from shale gas extraction. Secondly, it outlines potential UK and global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions arising from an updated range of scenarios built using the latest predictions of shale gas resources.

This report, commissioned by The Co-operative, provides a provisional review and assessment of th... more This report, commissioned by The Co-operative, provides a provisional review and assessment of the risks and benefits of shale gas development, with the aim of informing The Co-operative’s position on this ‘unconventional’ fuel source.
The analysis within the report addresses two specific issues associated with the extraction and combustion of shale gas. Firstly, it outlines potential UK and global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions arising from a range of scenarios building on current predictions of shale gas resources. Secondly, it explores the health and environmental risks associated with shale gas extraction. It should be stressed that a key issue in assessing these issues has been a paucity of reliable data. To date shale gas has only been exploited in the US and, while initial estimates have been made, it is difficult to quantify the possible resources in other parts of the globe, including the UK. Equally, information on health and environmental aspects is of variable quality and only now is there any systematic effort being undertaken to better understand these issues. Therefore, while every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information in the report, it can only be as accurate as the information on which it draws.
It is clear however, that while shale gas extraction, at a global level, does not involve the high energy and water inputs at the scale of other unconventional fuels, such as oil derived from tar sands, it does pose significant potential risks to human health and the environment. Principally, the potential for hazardous chemicals to enter groundwater via the extraction process must be subject to more thorough research prior to any expansion of the industry being considered. Additionally, while being promoted as a transition route to a low carbon future, none of the available evidence indicates that this is likely to be the case. It is difficult to envisage any situation other than shale gas largely being used in addition to other fossil fuel reserves and adding a further carbon burden. This could lead to an additional 11ppmv of CO2 over and above expected levels without shale gas – a figure that could rise if more of the total shale gas resource were to be exploited than envisaged in the scenarios. This would be compounded if investment in shale gas were to delay the necessary investment in zero and very low carbon technologies.

This report assesses the shortcomings and success of Green Investment Scheme (GIS) developments ... more This report assesses the shortcomings and success of Green Investment Scheme (GIS) developments so far by reviewing GIS schemes in a number of the Central and Eastern-European (CEE) countries. It analyzes the role of GIS as Carbon finance instrument in CEE countries and the market dynamics that have evolved. Regarding the use of the GIS mechanism by CEE countries, the report shows that most AAU seller countries take advantage of GIS to focus on mitigation opportunities which are not well-suited to -- and which lie outside of the prime targets of -- Joint Implementation (JI) but are of long-term strategic importance. Improved energy efficiency in buildings provides a prime example of such opportunities.

While several countries have made significant progress in implementing GIS schemes, in particular there is a lack of experience with the long-term enforcement of GIS activities. Such enforcement is the responsibility not only of sellers, but also of buyers. While some buyers follow up on the implementation and enforcement of GIS activities in the seller nations, other buyers may fail to do so, possibly undermining the integrity of the mechanism. Looking ahead, experiences gained from current GIS schemes, particularly simplified approaches for monitoring, reporting, verification (MRV) and additionality, may prove helpful in conjunction with the development of fund-based support mechanism for developing countries after 2012. Further, GIS has provided insight into how to tackle a range of reduction opportunities not easily addressed through either JI or the CDM. The experiences also have highlighted the critical role of institutional capacity and the role of purchaser integrity and responsibility in ex-ante funding of greenhouse reduction initiatives. In case the carbon market continues to be a part of future international agreements, proper integration of these lessons can contribute to the carbon market strength.

Proceedings of the International Conference on Energy Efficiency in Domestic Appliances and Lighting (EEDAL)

The Hungarian residential sector is the largest energy consumer in the country and is responsible... more The Hungarian residential sector is the largest energy consumer in the country and is responsible for more than a half of heat and a third of electricity consumption (EIA 2008). For this reason, the residential sector could be a significant contributor to energy saving targets in Hungary. For evidence-based design of energy efficiency policies, it is important to understand the reasons behind the dynamics of the residential energy consumption and its structure. According to the authors’ investigation, there has been no in-depth research aimed at obtaining high-quality data on electricity consumption and behavioural patterns in the residential sector in Hungary.To address this gap in knowledge, a research team at the Central European University (CEU) analyzed energy consumption in 100 households in Hungary in the framework of the European project called REMODECE (Residential Monitoring to Decrease Energy Use and Carbon Emissions in Europe). The methods used by CEU included an analysis of energy bills and a minimum of 2-weeks on-site measurements of lighting, major electrical appliances such as information and communication technology (ICT) equipment, kitchen appliances, audio-video appliances, space and water heating. In addition, a survey of 500 households was conducted to trace the energy consumption habits of Hungarian households. The paper details the results of the project implementation in Hungary. It investigates the present status of energy consumption and its composition in the set of studied households. It also identifies the opportunities for potential technical and behavioural energy savings and the reasons why they are neglected by household dwellers. The results of the project indicate significant energy saving potential in the Hungarian household sector. The main findings concern environmentally negative and positive trends in new appliance ownership, with on one hand an increase in ownership levels (particularly of less traditional appliances such as dishwashers and tumble dryers) and on the other an apparent improvement in the energy efficiency of the new stock. Although, nowadays, households buy more efficient electronic equipment, including liquid crystal display (LCD) monitors as well as florescent tubes and compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs), they are also characterized by the increased energy consumption due to the higher ownership rate of ICT equipment and different kinds of entertainment appliances, as well as additional comfort elements, such as air conditioners. These findings are consistent with the rise in the standard of living apparent in the new EU member states such as Hungary.

The European Council for an Energy Efficient Economy (ECEEE) Summer Study

Many recent major studies, including the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report, have attested that ener... more Many recent major studies, including the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report, have attested that energy efficiency is humanity’s prime option to combat climate change in the short- to mid-term. The potential to avoid CO2 emissions cost-effectively has been reported to be significant through efficiency policies. However, the review of global research findings on the quantification of cost-effectiveness of opportunities through improved efficiency has highlighted that there is a major shortcoming in the vast majority of such calculations. It is common that such studies normally consider only direct costs in their assessment. Whereas there have been several trans-national efforts to quantify external cost, external “benefits”, or co-, ancillary- or non-energy benefits are rarely monetized and included in cost-benefit analyses. Since several studies have attested that these benefits often amount to more than the direct energy benefits, the omission of these values severely distorts the results of such assessments and, therefore, it is of utmost importance to consider these for in global and national policy-making and target-setting. The aim of the present paper is to assist in laying the foundations for this process, and demonstrates this on the case of the building sector. First, the paper reviews and synthesises the granules of research in this field. It first provides a taxonomy of co-benefits, and then collates case studies found in the public domain in which certain co-benefits have been monetized/quantified. Then, the paper summarises the various methodologies applied for the quantification of these. Finally, it offers equations on how different co-benefits could be integrated into a more holistic cost-benefit assessment.

The European Council for an Energy Efficient Economy (ECEEE) Summer Study

Green Investment Schemes (GIS) have been introduced to ensure the climate integrity of internatio... more Green Investment Schemes (GIS) have been introduced to ensure the climate integrity of international emission trading (IET) involving first commitment period excess assigned amount units (AAUs) in former communist countries for the purpose of other countries’ compliance with Kyoto commitments. GIS could provide a new and significant source of GHG mitigation financing in the seller countries. The article investigates how the flexibility of GIS can be best utilized for maximizing benefits to climate and society, but also to ensure that environmental integrity is not compromised at the expense of its simplicity and flexibility. The paper demonstrates that improved energy efficiency, especially through thermal retrofitting of the old inefficient building stock, is the most optimal area where such benefits can be best maximised.The paper identifies different architectural modalities of GIS, and how the choices in these affect its effectiveness. It then reviews the developments in GIS and characterizes different countries’ GIS architectures in the making. Learning from CDM/JI as well as other constraints related to GIS, recommendations are made for GIS architectures. The article emphasizes that GIS provides a unique opportunity for significant funds for abatement investments such as efficiency improvements. Optimally, these revenues could be targeted towards areas not easily reached by business-as-usual investments and policies, but fundamental for a long-term low carbon economy. Such areas in CEE include infrastructure investments, like retrofitting of old buildings or ensuring very low carbon footprints of new buildings, and certain bioenergy projects. To accomodate such long-term climate investments, it is crucial that the combination of allowable crediting period, greening ratio and AAU price ensures adequate bankability for investments with long payback times. The paper also proposes that more innovative and simpler M&V approaches than in CDM/JI are used, while additionality enforcement is crucial to ensure climate integrity.The paper concludes that GIS’s significance goes beyond the first commitment period and the Kyoto Protocol. It outlines in which areas GIS could serve as a potential alternative carbon financing instrument to complement other mechanisms in order to better utilise energy-efficiency related opportunities.

Marine Policy, 2019

Journal of Industrial Ecology, 2017

Environmental Science & Policy, 2016

** This is a summary, full paper to be published soon! ** Background: Land is a valuable and f... more ** This is a summary, full paper to be published soon! **

1. Fragmented policy and planning: policies and planning models poorly account for interconnections, synergies and trade-off's between nexus components.

2. Disjointed governance: energy, food and water are largely managed in isolation, and often in competition. Similar disconnection exists even within sectors.

4. Limited temporal scope: longer-term interactions and interdependencies are not considered and intergenerational trade-off's neglected.

Proceedings of the International Conference on Energy Efficiency in Domestic Appliances and Lighting (EEDAL)

The European Council for an Energy Efficient Economy (ECEEE) Summer Study

Background: Land is a valuable and fixed resource that provides a wide range of goods and service... more Background: Land is a valuable and fixed resource that provides a wide range of goods and services to society. The ability of land managers and the capacity of land to provide these services is becoming more difficult as both population and climate variability increase. In recent years competing and contradictory policy trajectories have emerged in the UK raising questions about how land can be managed to meet demands, now and in the future.

1. Fragmented policy and planning: policies and planning models poorly account for interconnections, synergies and trade-off's between nexus components.

2. Disjointed governance: energy, food and water are largely managed in isolation, and often in competition. Similar disconnection exists even within sectors.

4. Limited temporal scope: longer-term interactions and interdependencies are not considered and intergenerational trade-off's neglected.