Wendy L. Schultz | University of Hawaii at Manoa (original) (raw)
Papers by Wendy L. Schultz
TRAILS: Teaching Resources and Innovations Library for Sociology, Apr 26, 2010
Journal of Futures Studies, Dec 1, 2013
Journal of Futures Studies, Sep 1, 2012
Future Horizon, Dec 1, 2010
Annual Review of Energy, Nov 1, 1985
... Page 2. 464 FESHARAKI & SCHULTZ ... This drop may be attributed to the reappraisal of... more ... Page 2. 464 FESHARAKI & SCHULTZ ... This drop may be attributed to the reappraisal of the giantErawan gas field, resulting in a 60% devaluation of its estimated reserve volume (2). In total, regional natural gas reserves have steadily increased over the last three years. ...
Foresight, Jul 1, 2006
PurposeThe purpose of this article is to identify points of conceptual conflict between evidence‐... more PurposeThe purpose of this article is to identify points of conceptual conflict between evidence‐based policy research and horizon (environmental) scanning.Design/methodology/approachThe paper begins with a brief history of foresight in UK government, then describes the current government context for horizon scanning. Next, it defines horizon scanning as a method; highlights the contradictions between horizon scanning and more traditional empirical research; and offers suggestions to improve the rigor of horizon scanning.FindingsIncreased focus on defining the rules for source identification and scan data validation can enhance credibility.Research limitations/implicationsCurrent horizon scanning work in the UK government suggests these methodological improvements, but proof will wait upon completion and deployment of several ongoing horizon scans.Practical implicationsProvides improved acceptability and dissemination of horizon scanning as a tool, as well as heightened engagement of policy‐makers, planners, and leaders with horizon scanning output.Originality/valueThere has been little previous work exploring the cultural constraints on adoption of horizon scanning within the evidence‐based polity context.
,has been reproduced from the microfilm master. UMI films the text directly from the original or ... more ,has been reproduced from the microfilm master. UMI films the text directly from the original or copy submitted. Thus, some thesis and dissertation copies are in typewriter face, while others may be from any type of computer printer. The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. Broken or indistinct print, colored or poor quality illustrations and photographs, print bleedthrough, substandard margins, and improper alignment can adversely affect reproduction. In the unlikely event that the author did not send UMI a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted Also, if unauthorized copyright material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. Oversize materials (e.g., maps, drawings, charts) are reproduced by sectioning the original, beginning at the upper left-hand comer and continuing from left to right in equal sections with small overlaps. Each original is also photographed in one exposure and is included in reduced form at the back of the book. Photographs included in the original manuscript have been reproduced xerographically in this copy. Higher quality 6" x 9" black and white photographic prints are available for any photographs or illustrations appearing in this copy for an additional charge. Contact UMI directly to order. UMI
This chapter answers three questions: • How can this book help you? • What is a scenario? • How c... more This chapter answers three questions: • How can this book help you? • What is a scenario? • How can scenarios be used? It defines scenarios and gives the theoretical and experimental underlying basis for their application. It also contains a discussion of when not to use scenarios. The chapter is contributed by Gill Ringland, the author of several books on scenario planning and the chief executive of SAMI Consulting, which aims to help its customers to make robust decisions in uncertain times. HOW CAN THIS BOOK HELP YOU? You have opened this book because you are a marketer, who has heard about scenarios and want to know what they can do for you. Can they bring both creativity and discipline both into marketing? Can the use of scenarios make your organisation more successful?
TRAILS: Teaching Resources and Innovations Library for Sociology, Apr 26, 2010
An exploration of the meaning and uses of 'plausibility' as an evaluative criteri... more An exploration of the meaning and uses of 'plausibility' as an evaluative criterion in foresight and the extent to which it hobbles futures thinking. Plausibility is judged against current assumptions about the issue in question and its context. Those assumptions are often implicit and unexamined, and may be inappropriate given dynamic change, a different worldview or value set, or the potential of disruptive discoveries.
A short exploration of possible stages in the evolution of libraries, prepared for OCLC (Online C... more A short exploration of possible stages in the evolution of libraries, prepared for OCLC (Online Computer Library Center) Research's NextStep, issue no. 2, where it was published as "To a temporary place in time... On the way to the library experience of the future" in March 2006. Issue online here: http://www.oclc.org/publications/nextspace/issues/issue002.en.html
A comparative review and analysis of 42 different scenario projects drawn from government and NGO... more A comparative review and analysis of 42 different scenario projects drawn from government and NGO futures projects around the world. Both the methods used and the content of the resulting scenarios are compared and clustered, resulting in a 'roadmap' of scenario archetypes. The methods review also includes the results of "lessons learned" contributed by both government policy staff, and the futures/foresight consultants who contributed the scenario research.
This study traces the development of Japan's current energy policies and their interactions w... more This study traces the development of Japan's current energy policies and their interactions with Japanese foreign policy, particularly vis-a-vis the United States, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia. Japan's dependence on imported energy grew from 6.9% in 1925 to 88% in 1975. Oil demand increased by a factor of 167 times from 1950 to 1973; by contrast, U.S. oil demand multiplied only 2.6 over that interval. The energy crises of the 1970s shifted Japan's energy strategies dramatically, as the drop in import dependence from 1975 to 1985 demonstrates:88% to 83%. The article discusses both this shift in energy policy and its relation to Japan's diplomatic affairs; it also discusses how Japan differs from the U.S. in its energy strategy and related policies.
A very condensed overview of the emergence and evolution of futures studies and foresight, publis... more A very condensed overview of the emergence and evolution of futures studies and foresight, published in the APF's 10th anniversary volume, The Future of Futures (http://thefutureoffutures.com/). The book features a two-page graphic timeline illustrating the evolution of key thinkers in futures.
The need for crazy thinking and working outside plausibility in order to build capacity to antici... more The need for crazy thinking and working outside plausibility in order to build capacity to anticipate black swans and surprising futures. The presentation includes an overview of various relevant methods, including horizon scanning, the Cynefin framework, the Three Horizons framework, causal layered analysis (CLA), futures wheels, reversing assumptions ("crazy futures"), and crowdsourcing.
Overview of basic concepts, assumptions, perspectives, and research modes in futures studies and ... more Overview of basic concepts, assumptions, perspectives, and research modes in futures studies and foresight.
Political science fiction, 1997
Page 226. Chapter 13 Gender Identity in Star Trek Kathy E. Ferguson, Gilad Ashkenazi, and Wendy S... more Page 226. Chapter 13 Gender Identity in Star Trek Kathy E. Ferguson, Gilad Ashkenazi, and Wendy Schultz Identity is about boundaries. Identities are compelling largely through their ability to mobilize or demobilize available ...
U.S.-Japanese Energy Relations
An exploration of the meaning and uses of 'plausibility' as an evaluative criterion in fo... more An exploration of the meaning and uses of 'plausibility' as an evaluative criterion in foresight and the extent to which it hobbles futures thinking. Plausibility is judged against current assumptions about the issue in question and its context. Those assumptions are often implicit and unexamined, and may be inappropriate given dynamic change, a different worldview or value set, or the potential of disruptive discoveries.
TRAILS: Teaching Resources and Innovations Library for Sociology, Apr 26, 2010
Journal of Futures Studies, Dec 1, 2013
Journal of Futures Studies, Sep 1, 2012
Future Horizon, Dec 1, 2010
Annual Review of Energy, Nov 1, 1985
... Page 2. 464 FESHARAKI & SCHULTZ ... This drop may be attributed to the reappraisal of... more ... Page 2. 464 FESHARAKI & SCHULTZ ... This drop may be attributed to the reappraisal of the giantErawan gas field, resulting in a 60% devaluation of its estimated reserve volume (2). In total, regional natural gas reserves have steadily increased over the last three years. ...
Foresight, Jul 1, 2006
PurposeThe purpose of this article is to identify points of conceptual conflict between evidence‐... more PurposeThe purpose of this article is to identify points of conceptual conflict between evidence‐based policy research and horizon (environmental) scanning.Design/methodology/approachThe paper begins with a brief history of foresight in UK government, then describes the current government context for horizon scanning. Next, it defines horizon scanning as a method; highlights the contradictions between horizon scanning and more traditional empirical research; and offers suggestions to improve the rigor of horizon scanning.FindingsIncreased focus on defining the rules for source identification and scan data validation can enhance credibility.Research limitations/implicationsCurrent horizon scanning work in the UK government suggests these methodological improvements, but proof will wait upon completion and deployment of several ongoing horizon scans.Practical implicationsProvides improved acceptability and dissemination of horizon scanning as a tool, as well as heightened engagement of policy‐makers, planners, and leaders with horizon scanning output.Originality/valueThere has been little previous work exploring the cultural constraints on adoption of horizon scanning within the evidence‐based polity context.
,has been reproduced from the microfilm master. UMI films the text directly from the original or ... more ,has been reproduced from the microfilm master. UMI films the text directly from the original or copy submitted. Thus, some thesis and dissertation copies are in typewriter face, while others may be from any type of computer printer. The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. Broken or indistinct print, colored or poor quality illustrations and photographs, print bleedthrough, substandard margins, and improper alignment can adversely affect reproduction. In the unlikely event that the author did not send UMI a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted Also, if unauthorized copyright material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. Oversize materials (e.g., maps, drawings, charts) are reproduced by sectioning the original, beginning at the upper left-hand comer and continuing from left to right in equal sections with small overlaps. Each original is also photographed in one exposure and is included in reduced form at the back of the book. Photographs included in the original manuscript have been reproduced xerographically in this copy. Higher quality 6" x 9" black and white photographic prints are available for any photographs or illustrations appearing in this copy for an additional charge. Contact UMI directly to order. UMI
This chapter answers three questions: • How can this book help you? • What is a scenario? • How c... more This chapter answers three questions: • How can this book help you? • What is a scenario? • How can scenarios be used? It defines scenarios and gives the theoretical and experimental underlying basis for their application. It also contains a discussion of when not to use scenarios. The chapter is contributed by Gill Ringland, the author of several books on scenario planning and the chief executive of SAMI Consulting, which aims to help its customers to make robust decisions in uncertain times. HOW CAN THIS BOOK HELP YOU? You have opened this book because you are a marketer, who has heard about scenarios and want to know what they can do for you. Can they bring both creativity and discipline both into marketing? Can the use of scenarios make your organisation more successful?
TRAILS: Teaching Resources and Innovations Library for Sociology, Apr 26, 2010
An exploration of the meaning and uses of 'plausibility' as an evaluative criteri... more An exploration of the meaning and uses of 'plausibility' as an evaluative criterion in foresight and the extent to which it hobbles futures thinking. Plausibility is judged against current assumptions about the issue in question and its context. Those assumptions are often implicit and unexamined, and may be inappropriate given dynamic change, a different worldview or value set, or the potential of disruptive discoveries.
A short exploration of possible stages in the evolution of libraries, prepared for OCLC (Online C... more A short exploration of possible stages in the evolution of libraries, prepared for OCLC (Online Computer Library Center) Research's NextStep, issue no. 2, where it was published as "To a temporary place in time... On the way to the library experience of the future" in March 2006. Issue online here: http://www.oclc.org/publications/nextspace/issues/issue002.en.html
A comparative review and analysis of 42 different scenario projects drawn from government and NGO... more A comparative review and analysis of 42 different scenario projects drawn from government and NGO futures projects around the world. Both the methods used and the content of the resulting scenarios are compared and clustered, resulting in a 'roadmap' of scenario archetypes. The methods review also includes the results of "lessons learned" contributed by both government policy staff, and the futures/foresight consultants who contributed the scenario research.
This study traces the development of Japan's current energy policies and their interactions w... more This study traces the development of Japan's current energy policies and their interactions with Japanese foreign policy, particularly vis-a-vis the United States, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia. Japan's dependence on imported energy grew from 6.9% in 1925 to 88% in 1975. Oil demand increased by a factor of 167 times from 1950 to 1973; by contrast, U.S. oil demand multiplied only 2.6 over that interval. The energy crises of the 1970s shifted Japan's energy strategies dramatically, as the drop in import dependence from 1975 to 1985 demonstrates:88% to 83%. The article discusses both this shift in energy policy and its relation to Japan's diplomatic affairs; it also discusses how Japan differs from the U.S. in its energy strategy and related policies.
A very condensed overview of the emergence and evolution of futures studies and foresight, publis... more A very condensed overview of the emergence and evolution of futures studies and foresight, published in the APF's 10th anniversary volume, The Future of Futures (http://thefutureoffutures.com/). The book features a two-page graphic timeline illustrating the evolution of key thinkers in futures.
The need for crazy thinking and working outside plausibility in order to build capacity to antici... more The need for crazy thinking and working outside plausibility in order to build capacity to anticipate black swans and surprising futures. The presentation includes an overview of various relevant methods, including horizon scanning, the Cynefin framework, the Three Horizons framework, causal layered analysis (CLA), futures wheels, reversing assumptions ("crazy futures"), and crowdsourcing.
Overview of basic concepts, assumptions, perspectives, and research modes in futures studies and ... more Overview of basic concepts, assumptions, perspectives, and research modes in futures studies and foresight.
Political science fiction, 1997
Page 226. Chapter 13 Gender Identity in Star Trek Kathy E. Ferguson, Gilad Ashkenazi, and Wendy S... more Page 226. Chapter 13 Gender Identity in Star Trek Kathy E. Ferguson, Gilad Ashkenazi, and Wendy Schultz Identity is about boundaries. Identities are compelling largely through their ability to mobilize or demobilize available ...
U.S.-Japanese Energy Relations
An exploration of the meaning and uses of 'plausibility' as an evaluative criterion in fo... more An exploration of the meaning and uses of 'plausibility' as an evaluative criterion in foresight and the extent to which it hobbles futures thinking. Plausibility is judged against current assumptions about the issue in question and its context. Those assumptions are often implicit and unexamined, and may be inappropriate given dynamic change, a different worldview or value set, or the potential of disruptive discoveries.