Francisco Galamas | George C Marshall Center for Security Studies (original) (raw)

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Papers by Francisco Galamas

Nos últimos anos, as potências nucleares reconhecidas pelo Tratado de Não-Proliferação Nuclear (P... more Nos últimos anos, as potências nucleares reconhecidas pelo Tratado de Não-Proliferação Nuclear (P5) têm investido substancialmente na modernização do seu arsenal nuclear. Mesmo tendo presente a necessidade de substituir algumas das plataformas nucleares, é percetível que o desenvolvimento e a operacionalização de novos sistemas militares – como o escudo antimíssil ou sistemas hipersónicos – criaram um efeito dominó estratégico sob outras potências nucleares, como a Rússia e a China. Este artigo almeja não só descrever alguns dos programas de modernização nuclear em fase de implementação, por parte dos P5, mas também aborda as motivações estratégicas por detrás dos mesmos.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Comparative Strategy, 2008

The strategic use of biological weapons has presented some difficulties. Biological weapons use h... more The strategic use of biological weapons has presented some difficulties. Biological weapons use has been always uncertain, invisible, and delayed due to factors such as the incubation period. With the intervention of biotechnology techniques, the possible applications of biological weapons may increase and gain new strategic value. That may enhance the deterrence capability of these weapons against countries with nuclear weapons. To better understand these changes, we must look first at how biotechnology can eliminate some of the disadvantages of the strategic biological weapons use and therefore may enhance the use of biological weapons for deterrence.

Comparative Strategy, 2009

Throughout military history, some changes in technology have provided new weapons and capabilitie... more Throughout military history, some changes in technology have provided new weapons and capabilities to military commanders. Some of those changes were so significant, as in the case of nuclear weapons, that they modified the strategic positions of the countries that possessed them within the international system. Although biological weapons cannot destroy civilian or military infrastructure, they can kill people in large numbers. Because the effects of the dissemination of biological weapons are invisible, delayed, and uncertain, genetically modified biological weapons can acquire a deterrence capability that would present serious challenges to United States policymakers.

Globalization brought tremendous transformations to the international economy. But as these chang... more Globalization brought tremendous transformations to the international economy. But as these changes created benefits in several areas of economy, politics and science, they have also brought significant security challenges. As most publications address the strategic issues emanated from the proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD), few are those who explain the proliferation phenomenon from an operational perspective. This chapter intends to demonstrate that the same mechanisms used every day by individuals, have also been used to support the phenomenon of proliferation of WMD over the past few years. Furthermore, the chapter will also look into the threats that proliferation poses to regional stability as well as the risks emanated from non-State actors attempting to acquire such weapons. Finally, we also address the existing international mechanisms created to prevent the use of globalization channels for the purposes of WMD.

Este ensaio tem como objectivo alertar para um novo terrorismo que se tornou visivel com os ataqu... more Este ensaio tem como objectivo alertar para um novo terrorismo que se tornou visivel com os ataques de 11 de Setembro de 2001, e a juncao deste com armas de destruicao macica. A analise ira centrar-se nas possiveis consequencias consoante o tipo de arma utilizado, ja que estas tem utilidades e possibilidades distintas, assim como nas motivacoes do terrorismo religioso para o uso de armas de destruicao macica.

A arma nuclear, como a arma mais destrutiva existente, tem a capacidade para alterar profundament... more A arma nuclear, como a arma mais destrutiva existente, tem a capacidade para alterar profundamente a Estrategia e o relacionamento entre Estados. Depois de uma Guerra Fria, em que verificamos uma dinâmica nuclear bipolarizada, o seculo XXI apresenta uma realidade mais complexa e multipolarizada. Este artigo pretende analisar as diferentes dinâmicas nucleares que as primeiras decadas do seculo XXI apresentam e os riscos que acarretam.

Este ensaio tem como objectivo de defender que a unipolaridade nao e um momento transitorio para ... more Este ensaio tem como objectivo de defender que a unipolaridade nao e um momento transitorio para a multipolaridade, ao contrario do que a teoria das Relacoes Internacionais preve. Procurase centrar a analise nos elementos praticos que constituem o poder dos Estados, e nao as previsoes teoricas que, no meu ver, nao se aplicam na actualidade.

Islamic extremist has plagued Indonesia over the last decades. As one addresses this phenomenon i... more Islamic extremist has plagued Indonesia over the last decades. As one addresses this phenomenon it is important to understand the causes behind those violent acts by looking at the influences and modus operandi of several terrorist groups that have operated (or currently do) in Indonesia. Specifically, this article will analyze the roots of Jemaah Islamiyah, Jamaah Ansharut Tauhid, Laskar Jihad, Mujahidin Indonesia Timur as well as the recent ISIS attempt of establishing a foothold in Indonesia. Only by looking at a considerable group of terrorist movements, it is then possible to understand the historical, religious and cultural causes behind the latter as well as realistically assess if terrorism can be a strategic instability factor for the Indonesian government.

Http Dx Doi Org 10 1080 01495933 2011 545689, Mar 4, 2011

The Nonproliferation Review, 2015

Comparative Strategy, 2011

Comparative Strategy, 2011

Modern Diplomacy, 2020

Undoubtedly, a significant number of governmental reports, academic articles and op-eds about ... more Undoubtedly, a significant number of governmental reports, academic articles and op-eds about the Covid-19 and its likely future impacts in the world societies and economies have already been published. Though useful for planning, anyone attempting to establish prospective post-pandemic scenarios should – above all – be aware that this effort is filled with uncertainty as the repercussions of any contagious diseases are always dynamic. Namely, its reliance on constant evolving factors, is causing persistent shifts in its impacts principally for those of economic and political nature.

With this thought in mind, and as the doubts shrouding a possible second wave of this pandemic slowly erode, it seems important to look at historical instances of uncontrollable transmission of disease and to understand how deeply it can politically impact human societies, albeit contextualizing the obvious differences brought by time and different social and technological backgrounds. Still, having these aspects in consideration, it should be noted the common denominator that the current pandemic has with other historical health emergencies: the absence of medical countermeasures that can truly eliminate the disease.

Nos últimos anos, as potências nucleares reconhecidas pelo Tratado de Não-Proliferação Nuclear (P... more Nos últimos anos, as potências nucleares reconhecidas pelo Tratado de Não-Proliferação Nuclear (P5) têm investido substancialmente na modernização do seu arsenal nuclear. Mesmo tendo presente a necessidade de substituir algumas das plataformas nucleares, é percetível que o desenvolvimento e a operacionalização de novos sistemas militares – como o escudo antimíssil ou sistemas hipersónicos – criaram um efeito dominó estratégico sob outras potências nucleares, como a Rússia e a China. Este artigo almeja não só descrever alguns dos programas de modernização nuclear em fase de implementação, por parte dos P5, mas também aborda as motivações estratégicas por detrás dos mesmos.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Comparative Strategy, 2008

The strategic use of biological weapons has presented some difficulties. Biological weapons use h... more The strategic use of biological weapons has presented some difficulties. Biological weapons use has been always uncertain, invisible, and delayed due to factors such as the incubation period. With the intervention of biotechnology techniques, the possible applications of biological weapons may increase and gain new strategic value. That may enhance the deterrence capability of these weapons against countries with nuclear weapons. To better understand these changes, we must look first at how biotechnology can eliminate some of the disadvantages of the strategic biological weapons use and therefore may enhance the use of biological weapons for deterrence.

Comparative Strategy, 2009

Throughout military history, some changes in technology have provided new weapons and capabilitie... more Throughout military history, some changes in technology have provided new weapons and capabilities to military commanders. Some of those changes were so significant, as in the case of nuclear weapons, that they modified the strategic positions of the countries that possessed them within the international system. Although biological weapons cannot destroy civilian or military infrastructure, they can kill people in large numbers. Because the effects of the dissemination of biological weapons are invisible, delayed, and uncertain, genetically modified biological weapons can acquire a deterrence capability that would present serious challenges to United States policymakers.

Globalization brought tremendous transformations to the international economy. But as these chang... more Globalization brought tremendous transformations to the international economy. But as these changes created benefits in several areas of economy, politics and science, they have also brought significant security challenges. As most publications address the strategic issues emanated from the proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD), few are those who explain the proliferation phenomenon from an operational perspective. This chapter intends to demonstrate that the same mechanisms used every day by individuals, have also been used to support the phenomenon of proliferation of WMD over the past few years. Furthermore, the chapter will also look into the threats that proliferation poses to regional stability as well as the risks emanated from non-State actors attempting to acquire such weapons. Finally, we also address the existing international mechanisms created to prevent the use of globalization channels for the purposes of WMD.

Este ensaio tem como objectivo alertar para um novo terrorismo que se tornou visivel com os ataqu... more Este ensaio tem como objectivo alertar para um novo terrorismo que se tornou visivel com os ataques de 11 de Setembro de 2001, e a juncao deste com armas de destruicao macica. A analise ira centrar-se nas possiveis consequencias consoante o tipo de arma utilizado, ja que estas tem utilidades e possibilidades distintas, assim como nas motivacoes do terrorismo religioso para o uso de armas de destruicao macica.

A arma nuclear, como a arma mais destrutiva existente, tem a capacidade para alterar profundament... more A arma nuclear, como a arma mais destrutiva existente, tem a capacidade para alterar profundamente a Estrategia e o relacionamento entre Estados. Depois de uma Guerra Fria, em que verificamos uma dinâmica nuclear bipolarizada, o seculo XXI apresenta uma realidade mais complexa e multipolarizada. Este artigo pretende analisar as diferentes dinâmicas nucleares que as primeiras decadas do seculo XXI apresentam e os riscos que acarretam.

Este ensaio tem como objectivo de defender que a unipolaridade nao e um momento transitorio para ... more Este ensaio tem como objectivo de defender que a unipolaridade nao e um momento transitorio para a multipolaridade, ao contrario do que a teoria das Relacoes Internacionais preve. Procurase centrar a analise nos elementos praticos que constituem o poder dos Estados, e nao as previsoes teoricas que, no meu ver, nao se aplicam na actualidade.

Islamic extremist has plagued Indonesia over the last decades. As one addresses this phenomenon i... more Islamic extremist has plagued Indonesia over the last decades. As one addresses this phenomenon it is important to understand the causes behind those violent acts by looking at the influences and modus operandi of several terrorist groups that have operated (or currently do) in Indonesia. Specifically, this article will analyze the roots of Jemaah Islamiyah, Jamaah Ansharut Tauhid, Laskar Jihad, Mujahidin Indonesia Timur as well as the recent ISIS attempt of establishing a foothold in Indonesia. Only by looking at a considerable group of terrorist movements, it is then possible to understand the historical, religious and cultural causes behind the latter as well as realistically assess if terrorism can be a strategic instability factor for the Indonesian government.

Http Dx Doi Org 10 1080 01495933 2011 545689, Mar 4, 2011

The Nonproliferation Review, 2015

Comparative Strategy, 2011

Comparative Strategy, 2011

Modern Diplomacy, 2020

Undoubtedly, a significant number of governmental reports, academic articles and op-eds about ... more Undoubtedly, a significant number of governmental reports, academic articles and op-eds about the Covid-19 and its likely future impacts in the world societies and economies have already been published. Though useful for planning, anyone attempting to establish prospective post-pandemic scenarios should – above all – be aware that this effort is filled with uncertainty as the repercussions of any contagious diseases are always dynamic. Namely, its reliance on constant evolving factors, is causing persistent shifts in its impacts principally for those of economic and political nature.

With this thought in mind, and as the doubts shrouding a possible second wave of this pandemic slowly erode, it seems important to look at historical instances of uncontrollable transmission of disease and to understand how deeply it can politically impact human societies, albeit contextualizing the obvious differences brought by time and different social and technological backgrounds. Still, having these aspects in consideration, it should be noted the common denominator that the current pandemic has with other historical health emergencies: the absence of medical countermeasures that can truly eliminate the disease.