EP2019 results mapped onto Westminster constituencies (original) (raw)

(Some careful interpretation required)

In 2016 I produced estimates of how each Westminster constituency had (probably) voted in the UK's EU membership referendum.

These estimates were necessary because the referendum was counted at the local authority level rather than the Westminster constituency level.

The 2019 European Parliament elections were also counted at local authority level, and so I have carried out the same remapping exercise.

You can find these estimates at this Google Sheet. A short writeup is also available. Replication materials are here.

If you are using these estimates, please remember two things.

1. These figures on their own tell us almost nothing about future general elections. I estimate that the Brexit party won the most votes in over four hundred Westminster constituencies. The Brexit Party will not win four hundred seats in a future general election. European Parliament elections are different from Westminster elections in many ways. The electorate is different, the voting system is different, the parties competing are different, the issues discussed (if any) are different, and the levels of campaign activity and interest are different. If European Parliament elections results were a good guide to subsequent general elections, UKIP would have won scores of seats in 2015 rather than just one.
2. These figures remain estimates, and so they are subject to error. If you are aware of any known constituency figures, and if you can share with me public or other official documents which show these known constituency figures, I will be happy to amend these figures to reflect that new information. Either email me or leave a comment below to let me know.