Debunking the Use of Bayesian Statistics for Christian Miracle Claims (original) (raw)

Christianity is ultimately based on faith, not on probability

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Bayesian statistics is an approach to judging the likelihood of something happening or being true. Its main characteristic is the utilization of prior knowledge to calculate probability, which is usually stated as “the probability of x given y”. Some Christain apologists like Richard Swinburne attempt to use Bayesian statistics to show that it is highly probable that God exists or Jesus was resurrected.

As the title of this article suggests, I would like to explain why Bayesian statistics is not an appropriate tool for Christian apologetics. The way it’s used actually exposes how fragile the foundation of the Christian faith is.

If math is not your thing, don’t worry. I promise I am not going to overwhelm you with numbers and equations. Most of what I discuss in this article are concepts and common sense. I may have to oversimplify some stuff, but I think my conclusion is still sound.

Bayesian statistics in a nutshell

The easiest way to help readers understand what Bayesian statistics is up to is to show a simple example. Here is one given by Chris Wiggins:

A patient goes to see…