Mustafa Kibaroglu | MEF University (original) (raw)

Papers by Mustafa Kibaroglu

Bilge Strateji, Dec 1, 2013

Ocak 2017’de Beyaz Saray’a gelen Cumhuriyetçi Başkan Donald Trump döneminde “İran-ABD ilişkilerin... more Ocak 2017’de Beyaz Saray’a gelen Cumhuriyetçi Başkan Donald Trump döneminde “İran-ABD ilişkilerinde önceki dönemlere göre farklı süreçler yaşanabilir mi?”; “İlişkilerin seviyesinde ilerleme olma şansı var mıdır?”; “İlişkiler daha da kötüye gider ve çatışmaya yol açar mı?” gibi soruların cevaplarını aramak gerekiyor. Aynı zamanda geleceği öngörmek için geçmişi doğru tahlil etmek gerektiği kuralı da unutulmamalıdır

Bu yazımızda, Türkiye’nin, gerek siyasi ve ekonomik çıkarları bakımından, gerek güvenlik ve savun... more Bu yazımızda, Türkiye’nin, gerek siyasi ve ekonomik çıkarları bakımından, gerek güvenlik ve savunma politikaları bakımından, ABD ve AB ile olan ilişkilerinin sanki birbirlerine alternatif seçeneklermiş gibi görülmesinin neden isabetli bir yaklaşım olmadığı ele alınacak ve içinde bulunulan uluslararası konjonktürde, ülke güvenliği ve savunması bakımından benimsenmesi gereken yaklaşımın ne olması gerektiği tartışılacaktır.In this article, the reasons why Turkey's relations with U.S. and EU, in terms of its political and economic interests and in terms of its security and defence policies, should not be regarded as alternative options to each other will be evaluated, and the approach to be adopted in terms of national security and defence in the current international conjuncture will be discussed

Uluslararası ilişkiler dergisi, Mar 1, 2004

Because of the inferiority complex first against Japan, then against the United States, the North... more Because of the inferiority complex first against Japan, then against the United States, the North Korean leadership embarked upon nuclear weapons development program from the inception of their state. Due to the tangible and comprehensive support provided by the Soviet Union and the People's Republic of China in the field of nuclear science and technology, North Korea has seemingly passed a significant threshold on the way to become a de facto nuclear weapons state. As of 2004, it is widely believed that North Korea has already extracted enough plutonium for a couple of nuclear warheads. Combined with its 1,350 kilometer-range ballistic missile capability, North Korea stands as one of the most significant threats to regional and global security and stability. In the aftermath of the September 11 terror attacks on the United States, Russia and China have greatly reduced their support to North Korea and intensified their ~fforts to mend the differences between that country and the US, just like Japan and South Korea did for long, with a view to not to pave the way to the escalation of a crisis on the Korean Peninsula.

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 2015

Akira Kawasaki wrote in Round One that the noble disarmament efforts of the Hibakusha-survivors o... more Akira Kawasaki wrote in Round One that the noble disarmament efforts of the Hibakusha-survivors of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki-"have often been ignored" outside Japan. Indeed,

A Bulletin reader named Ryan Alt argues in the comments to this roundtable that "it is very diffi... more A Bulletin reader named Ryan Alt argues in the comments to this roundtable that "it is very difficult to imagine [a nuclear weapon] ban [treaty] as anything more than wishful thinking." Another reader, Keith B. Rosenberg, writes that one should "[n]ever make a treaty that will not be adhered to"-essentially, that the ban treaty is too idealistic to be feasible.

CHANGING PROFILE OF TERRORISM Significant changes have been taking place in the profile of terror... more CHANGING PROFILE OF TERRORISM Significant changes have been taking place in the profile of terrorism over the last decade Unlike most commonly acknowledged terrorist groups whose headquarters, zones of operations, cadres of leadership, hierarchical structures, capabilities and intentions were more or less certain to the experts until recently, today terrorists and terrorist networks are not that easily identifiable

This book presents the lectures from the NATO Advanced Training Course (ATC) held in Tirana, Alba... more This book presents the lectures from the NATO Advanced Training Course (ATC) held in Tirana, Albania, in April 2009. The goal of the ATC was to enhance international cooperation in the fight against terrorism by providing the guidance necessary to promote standard training and basic skills for Partner Nation officials. It provided a forum for exchanging views on the latest developments in the area of threats posed by terrorist organizations, their impact on the national, regional and global security environment, as well as ways to prevent, deter, counter and respond to them. It also promoted a wide-ranging partnership of cooperation and dialogue in the fight against terrorism, to boost transparency, mutual confidence and the capacity for common and concerted action. The eleven papers in the book are selected from the lectures and case studies presented during the ATC. They explore the causes and dimensions of terrorism and introduce strategies to counter the terrorist threat, examin...

I had the great honor of attending the CSPs here in The Hague and addressing the honorable delega... more I had the great honor of attending the CSPs here in The Hague and addressing the honorable delegates as well as taking part in the side events organized by Green Cross International on several occasions. Allow me to start by saying that many of my colleagues in the nuclear weapons proliferation area are quite proud of dealing with a topic of utmost strategic importance. Yet, they acknowledge the successes of the CWC, thanks to the many important accomplishments of the OPCW to date.

The golden age of deterrence has reached its end. Nuclear weapons, once a star player on the inte... more The golden age of deterrence has reached its end. Nuclear weapons, once a star player on the international stage, no longer enjoy a place in the limelight. To be sure, some policy makers still ascribe to nuclear weapons the same prestige that, during the Cold War, they gained because of their unmatched destructive power and the leverage they provided nuclear weapon states in the international arena. But the Cold War environment, in which nuclear weapons in the hands of two superpowers played a vital role in maintaining strategic stability, doesn't exist anymore. Nor is it likely to be replicated in the future-despite certain parallels between US-Soviet relations during the Cold War and present-day US-Russia relations. Meanwhile, it is painfully obvious that nuclear deterrence is useless against apocalyptic terrorist organizations motivated by religious extremism. If such a group acquired and used a nuclear weapon, there would be no "return address" toward which retaliation could be directed. And apocalyptic terrorists probably don't fear destruction in the first place.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2012

In early 2010, CIRS began work on "The Nuclear Question in the Middle East" research initiative. ... more In early 2010, CIRS began work on "The Nuclear Question in the Middle East" research initiative. While the world community's attention may currently be drawn to Iran's nuclear program, the CIRS project aims to take a far more comprehensive and expansive look at the issue across the region. During working group meetings that took place in Doha, CIRS engaged with a number of academics and specialists who were invited to contribute individual chapters to a book on The Nuclear Question in the Middle East (Columbia University Press/Hurst, 2012). The participants discussed balancing the need for civilian nuclear technology against the concerns of weaponization programs. Governments may claim that they seek to establish a peaceful civilian nuclear program, but there always remains suspicion that the program can be used for purposes of proliferation. Nuclear energy therefore, will always be considered of dual character. Due to the fact that a civilian nuclear program can be modified into a military one regardless of the original intent, there are a number of strict international nonproliferation laws and treaties that countries must adhere to in order to allay international suspicions. Among other issues discussed by the working group were matters related to global security, regional mistrust, the prestige of gaining nuclear capabilities, and the role of NGOs and civil society groups in pressuring governments to abstain from nuclear energy initiatives. Further, the participants advocated the importance of understanding the domestic political realms of different Middle Eastern states; the possible forces that provide momentum for or against the nuclear movement; and the dynamics of internal policy debates amongst various political elites. They also stressed that it was necessary to examine the interconnected regional nature of nuclear programs (in the GCC for example) and how the different states may be propelling each other towards competing for the same prize. Energy provision itself is seen as an issue of state security, and, in the resource-rich states of the GCC, providing low cost energy for citizenry is vital for ruling elites to maintain stability. Over the past few years the world has seen a marked increase in the number of states either actively engaging in the development of nuclear power programs, or declaring their future intentions of doing so. To this effect, experts have argued that we may be in the throes of a global "nuclear renaissance." The Gulf states, along with other countries within the greater Middle East, have been amongst the most active in expressing their interest in developing non-weaponized nuclear energy programs. Countries such as the UAE, for example, cannot rely on their own energy supplies for their high energy intensive petrochemical and water desalinization industries. These countries claim that they must pursue a combination of hydrocarbon; renewable energy sources such as hydro and solar; as well as nuclear energy in order to meet their future energy needs. To allay public fears, the Abu Dhabi nuclear power program has been established in accordance with international treaties and protocols and has openly invited foreign know-how and observers. Similarly, Jordan, Syria, Egypt, Morocco, and a host of other countries within the region have expressed their interest in developing nuclear programs as a solution to their energy shortfalls. In some quarters, these intentions have caused alarm, particularly as the region is viewed as potentially unstable and prone to conflict. Opponents of nuclear energy programs in the Middle East often state that their concerns are based on legitimate fears of the development of a region-wide arms race and have called for the establishment of a Nuclear Weapons Free Zone (NWFZ) in the Middle East. Given the increased level of interest in nuclear energy worldwide, and the particular implications for the region, this subject is one that merits further scholarly discussion.

Middle Eastern Studies, 2007

The S-400 deal signed between Turkey and Russia has sparked an intense debate in the internationa... more The S-400 deal signed between Turkey and Russia has sparked an intense debate in the international arena, where harsh criticisms have been leveled against Turkey. This paper explains the reasons behind Turkey’s desire to build an elaborate air defense structure, and discuss how and why its successive attempts to reach this objective in collaboration with the allied countries have failed. It highlights the major arguments behind the severe criticisms in the West concerning Turkey’s negotiations, first with a Chinese firm, and then with a Russian firm, and how this entire process has become a serious bone of contention between Turkey and the U.S., carrying a risk of a spill over into NATO. It also discusses why and how the severe sanctions threatened to be imposed on Turkish defense industries by the Trump administration will indeed damage the security and the defensive capability not only of Turkey, but also the U.S.

Bilge Strateji, Dec 1, 2013

Ocak 2017’de Beyaz Saray’a gelen Cumhuriyetçi Başkan Donald Trump döneminde “İran-ABD ilişkilerin... more Ocak 2017’de Beyaz Saray’a gelen Cumhuriyetçi Başkan Donald Trump döneminde “İran-ABD ilişkilerinde önceki dönemlere göre farklı süreçler yaşanabilir mi?”; “İlişkilerin seviyesinde ilerleme olma şansı var mıdır?”; “İlişkiler daha da kötüye gider ve çatışmaya yol açar mı?” gibi soruların cevaplarını aramak gerekiyor. Aynı zamanda geleceği öngörmek için geçmişi doğru tahlil etmek gerektiği kuralı da unutulmamalıdır

Bu yazımızda, Türkiye’nin, gerek siyasi ve ekonomik çıkarları bakımından, gerek güvenlik ve savun... more Bu yazımızda, Türkiye’nin, gerek siyasi ve ekonomik çıkarları bakımından, gerek güvenlik ve savunma politikaları bakımından, ABD ve AB ile olan ilişkilerinin sanki birbirlerine alternatif seçeneklermiş gibi görülmesinin neden isabetli bir yaklaşım olmadığı ele alınacak ve içinde bulunulan uluslararası konjonktürde, ülke güvenliği ve savunması bakımından benimsenmesi gereken yaklaşımın ne olması gerektiği tartışılacaktır.In this article, the reasons why Turkey's relations with U.S. and EU, in terms of its political and economic interests and in terms of its security and defence policies, should not be regarded as alternative options to each other will be evaluated, and the approach to be adopted in terms of national security and defence in the current international conjuncture will be discussed

Uluslararası ilişkiler dergisi, Mar 1, 2004

Because of the inferiority complex first against Japan, then against the United States, the North... more Because of the inferiority complex first against Japan, then against the United States, the North Korean leadership embarked upon nuclear weapons development program from the inception of their state. Due to the tangible and comprehensive support provided by the Soviet Union and the People's Republic of China in the field of nuclear science and technology, North Korea has seemingly passed a significant threshold on the way to become a de facto nuclear weapons state. As of 2004, it is widely believed that North Korea has already extracted enough plutonium for a couple of nuclear warheads. Combined with its 1,350 kilometer-range ballistic missile capability, North Korea stands as one of the most significant threats to regional and global security and stability. In the aftermath of the September 11 terror attacks on the United States, Russia and China have greatly reduced their support to North Korea and intensified their ~fforts to mend the differences between that country and the US, just like Japan and South Korea did for long, with a view to not to pave the way to the escalation of a crisis on the Korean Peninsula.

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 2015

Akira Kawasaki wrote in Round One that the noble disarmament efforts of the Hibakusha-survivors o... more Akira Kawasaki wrote in Round One that the noble disarmament efforts of the Hibakusha-survivors of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki-"have often been ignored" outside Japan. Indeed,

A Bulletin reader named Ryan Alt argues in the comments to this roundtable that "it is very diffi... more A Bulletin reader named Ryan Alt argues in the comments to this roundtable that "it is very difficult to imagine [a nuclear weapon] ban [treaty] as anything more than wishful thinking." Another reader, Keith B. Rosenberg, writes that one should "[n]ever make a treaty that will not be adhered to"-essentially, that the ban treaty is too idealistic to be feasible.

CHANGING PROFILE OF TERRORISM Significant changes have been taking place in the profile of terror... more CHANGING PROFILE OF TERRORISM Significant changes have been taking place in the profile of terrorism over the last decade Unlike most commonly acknowledged terrorist groups whose headquarters, zones of operations, cadres of leadership, hierarchical structures, capabilities and intentions were more or less certain to the experts until recently, today terrorists and terrorist networks are not that easily identifiable

This book presents the lectures from the NATO Advanced Training Course (ATC) held in Tirana, Alba... more This book presents the lectures from the NATO Advanced Training Course (ATC) held in Tirana, Albania, in April 2009. The goal of the ATC was to enhance international cooperation in the fight against terrorism by providing the guidance necessary to promote standard training and basic skills for Partner Nation officials. It provided a forum for exchanging views on the latest developments in the area of threats posed by terrorist organizations, their impact on the national, regional and global security environment, as well as ways to prevent, deter, counter and respond to them. It also promoted a wide-ranging partnership of cooperation and dialogue in the fight against terrorism, to boost transparency, mutual confidence and the capacity for common and concerted action. The eleven papers in the book are selected from the lectures and case studies presented during the ATC. They explore the causes and dimensions of terrorism and introduce strategies to counter the terrorist threat, examin...

I had the great honor of attending the CSPs here in The Hague and addressing the honorable delega... more I had the great honor of attending the CSPs here in The Hague and addressing the honorable delegates as well as taking part in the side events organized by Green Cross International on several occasions. Allow me to start by saying that many of my colleagues in the nuclear weapons proliferation area are quite proud of dealing with a topic of utmost strategic importance. Yet, they acknowledge the successes of the CWC, thanks to the many important accomplishments of the OPCW to date.

The golden age of deterrence has reached its end. Nuclear weapons, once a star player on the inte... more The golden age of deterrence has reached its end. Nuclear weapons, once a star player on the international stage, no longer enjoy a place in the limelight. To be sure, some policy makers still ascribe to nuclear weapons the same prestige that, during the Cold War, they gained because of their unmatched destructive power and the leverage they provided nuclear weapon states in the international arena. But the Cold War environment, in which nuclear weapons in the hands of two superpowers played a vital role in maintaining strategic stability, doesn't exist anymore. Nor is it likely to be replicated in the future-despite certain parallels between US-Soviet relations during the Cold War and present-day US-Russia relations. Meanwhile, it is painfully obvious that nuclear deterrence is useless against apocalyptic terrorist organizations motivated by religious extremism. If such a group acquired and used a nuclear weapon, there would be no "return address" toward which retaliation could be directed. And apocalyptic terrorists probably don't fear destruction in the first place.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2012

In early 2010, CIRS began work on "The Nuclear Question in the Middle East" research initiative. ... more In early 2010, CIRS began work on "The Nuclear Question in the Middle East" research initiative. While the world community's attention may currently be drawn to Iran's nuclear program, the CIRS project aims to take a far more comprehensive and expansive look at the issue across the region. During working group meetings that took place in Doha, CIRS engaged with a number of academics and specialists who were invited to contribute individual chapters to a book on The Nuclear Question in the Middle East (Columbia University Press/Hurst, 2012). The participants discussed balancing the need for civilian nuclear technology against the concerns of weaponization programs. Governments may claim that they seek to establish a peaceful civilian nuclear program, but there always remains suspicion that the program can be used for purposes of proliferation. Nuclear energy therefore, will always be considered of dual character. Due to the fact that a civilian nuclear program can be modified into a military one regardless of the original intent, there are a number of strict international nonproliferation laws and treaties that countries must adhere to in order to allay international suspicions. Among other issues discussed by the working group were matters related to global security, regional mistrust, the prestige of gaining nuclear capabilities, and the role of NGOs and civil society groups in pressuring governments to abstain from nuclear energy initiatives. Further, the participants advocated the importance of understanding the domestic political realms of different Middle Eastern states; the possible forces that provide momentum for or against the nuclear movement; and the dynamics of internal policy debates amongst various political elites. They also stressed that it was necessary to examine the interconnected regional nature of nuclear programs (in the GCC for example) and how the different states may be propelling each other towards competing for the same prize. Energy provision itself is seen as an issue of state security, and, in the resource-rich states of the GCC, providing low cost energy for citizenry is vital for ruling elites to maintain stability. Over the past few years the world has seen a marked increase in the number of states either actively engaging in the development of nuclear power programs, or declaring their future intentions of doing so. To this effect, experts have argued that we may be in the throes of a global "nuclear renaissance." The Gulf states, along with other countries within the greater Middle East, have been amongst the most active in expressing their interest in developing non-weaponized nuclear energy programs. Countries such as the UAE, for example, cannot rely on their own energy supplies for their high energy intensive petrochemical and water desalinization industries. These countries claim that they must pursue a combination of hydrocarbon; renewable energy sources such as hydro and solar; as well as nuclear energy in order to meet their future energy needs. To allay public fears, the Abu Dhabi nuclear power program has been established in accordance with international treaties and protocols and has openly invited foreign know-how and observers. Similarly, Jordan, Syria, Egypt, Morocco, and a host of other countries within the region have expressed their interest in developing nuclear programs as a solution to their energy shortfalls. In some quarters, these intentions have caused alarm, particularly as the region is viewed as potentially unstable and prone to conflict. Opponents of nuclear energy programs in the Middle East often state that their concerns are based on legitimate fears of the development of a region-wide arms race and have called for the establishment of a Nuclear Weapons Free Zone (NWFZ) in the Middle East. Given the increased level of interest in nuclear energy worldwide, and the particular implications for the region, this subject is one that merits further scholarly discussion.

Middle Eastern Studies, 2007

The S-400 deal signed between Turkey and Russia has sparked an intense debate in the internationa... more The S-400 deal signed between Turkey and Russia has sparked an intense debate in the international arena, where harsh criticisms have been leveled against Turkey. This paper explains the reasons behind Turkey’s desire to build an elaborate air defense structure, and discuss how and why its successive attempts to reach this objective in collaboration with the allied countries have failed. It highlights the major arguments behind the severe criticisms in the West concerning Turkey’s negotiations, first with a Chinese firm, and then with a Russian firm, and how this entire process has become a serious bone of contention between Turkey and the U.S., carrying a risk of a spill over into NATO. It also discusses why and how the severe sanctions threatened to be imposed on Turkish defense industries by the Trump administration will indeed damage the security and the defensive capability not only of Turkey, but also the U.S.