Anne Schindler | MeteoSwiss - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Uploads
Papers by Anne Schindler
Journal of Climate, 2015
ABSTRACT
Geophysical Research Letters, 2013
1] Precipitation extremes are expected to increase in a warming climate; thus, it is essential to... more 1] Precipitation extremes are expected to increase in a warming climate; thus, it is essential to characterize their potential future changes. Here we evaluate eight highresolution global climate model simulations in the twentieth century and provide new evidence on projected global precipitation extremes for the 21st century. A significant intensification of daily extremes for all seasons is projected for the middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres at the end of the present century. For the subtropics and tropics, the lack of reliable and consistent estimations found for both the historical and future simulations might be connected with model deficiencies in the representation of organized convective systems. Low intermodel variability and good agreement with high-resolution regional observations are found for the twentieth century winter over the Northern Hemisphere middle and high latitudes. Citation: Toreti, A.,
Environmental Research Letters, 2012
We investigate future changes in the annual cycle of heavy daily precipitation events across the ... more We investigate future changes in the annual cycle of heavy daily precipitation events across the British Isles in the periods 2021-2060 and 2061-2100, relative to present day climate. Twelve combinations of regional and global climate models forced with the A1B scenario are used. The annual cycle is modelled as an inhomogeneous Poisson process with sinusoidal models for location and scale parameters of the generalized extreme value distribution. Although the peak times of the annual cycle vary considerably between projections for the 2061-2100 period, a robust shift towards later peak times is found for the south-east, while in the north-west there is evidence for a shift towards earlier peak times. In the remaining parts of the British Isles no changes in the peak times are projected. For 2021-2060 this signal is weak. The annual cycle's relative amplitude shows no robust signal, where differences in projected changes are dominated by global climate model differences. The relative contribution of anthropogenic forcing and internal climate variability to changes in the relative amplitude cannot be identified with the available ensemble. The results might be relevant for the development of adequate risk-reduction strategies, for insurance companies and for the management and planning of water resources.
Journal of Climate, 2015
ABSTRACT
Geophysical Research Letters, 2013
1] Precipitation extremes are expected to increase in a warming climate; thus, it is essential to... more 1] Precipitation extremes are expected to increase in a warming climate; thus, it is essential to characterize their potential future changes. Here we evaluate eight highresolution global climate model simulations in the twentieth century and provide new evidence on projected global precipitation extremes for the 21st century. A significant intensification of daily extremes for all seasons is projected for the middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres at the end of the present century. For the subtropics and tropics, the lack of reliable and consistent estimations found for both the historical and future simulations might be connected with model deficiencies in the representation of organized convective systems. Low intermodel variability and good agreement with high-resolution regional observations are found for the twentieth century winter over the Northern Hemisphere middle and high latitudes. Citation: Toreti, A.,
Environmental Research Letters, 2012
We investigate future changes in the annual cycle of heavy daily precipitation events across the ... more We investigate future changes in the annual cycle of heavy daily precipitation events across the British Isles in the periods 2021-2060 and 2061-2100, relative to present day climate. Twelve combinations of regional and global climate models forced with the A1B scenario are used. The annual cycle is modelled as an inhomogeneous Poisson process with sinusoidal models for location and scale parameters of the generalized extreme value distribution. Although the peak times of the annual cycle vary considerably between projections for the 2061-2100 period, a robust shift towards later peak times is found for the south-east, while in the north-west there is evidence for a shift towards earlier peak times. In the remaining parts of the British Isles no changes in the peak times are projected. For 2021-2060 this signal is weak. The annual cycle's relative amplitude shows no robust signal, where differences in projected changes are dominated by global climate model differences. The relative contribution of anthropogenic forcing and internal climate variability to changes in the relative amplitude cannot be identified with the available ensemble. The results might be relevant for the development of adequate risk-reduction strategies, for insurance companies and for the management and planning of water resources.