tunakan duran | Middle East Technical University (original) (raw)

Papers by tunakan duran

The Journal of International Social Research, 2017

Journal of International Social Research

Journal of International Social Research

Journal of International Social Research

The Journal of International Social Research, 2019

In this study, we examine the determinants of foreign exchange rate, in other words the macroecon... more In this study, we examine the determinants of foreign exchange rate, in other words the macroeconomic variables which are affecting the foreign exchange rate and especially whether the foreign exchange rate are influenced by the central banks' gold reserves. The most important feature of the study is to determine the relationships between foreign exchange rate with the various macroeconomic variables such as GDP, M1, Import, Export, Gold Reserve, Total Reserves by panel data modeling, and also to handle the forecasts models for predicting the exchange rate in a summary and understandable way. By way of this thought, in this paper, the relationships between foreign exchange rate with the various macroeconomic variables have been investigated for G20 countries () for the period 2000-2017 with two regression models. Data set and methodology were mentioned in part III. According to the results obtained; we claim that the effects of percentage changes of macroeconomic parameters via both quarterly and yearly are statistically significant on the percentage change of USD exchange rate against national currency. In model-1 related with quarterly change; the results could be seen on table-4 and similarly in model-2 related with yearly change; the results could be seen on table-5. In brief; in this paper we see that the periodic changes both in the parameters of macroeconomic indicators and gold reserves within quantity and size directly effect the USD exchange rate against natioanl currency strongly.

The low savings caused by the low income level leads to a low investment, which leads to a increa... more The low savings caused by the low income level leads to a low investment, which leads to a increase in unemployment, to a decrease in production and national income and due to decreased national income it is caused to an inadequate savings in a vicious circle over again. This vicious circle is causing emerging countries to struggle to finance themselves at the point of increasing their economic performance and growth. By way of this thought, in this paper, the relationship between the periodic changes of the banking sector total deposits and the periodic changes in macroeconomic parameters have been investigated in Turkey for the period 2002-2016 with two models. Mentioned in the OECD reports dated 2015; %75 of total household financial assets in Turkey is composing from currency and deposits as can be seen in Figure 1, so in this paper total deposits are thought as savings for Turkey. Data set and methodology were mentioned in part III. According to the results obtained; we claim that in Turkey Banking Sector, the effects of percentage changes of macroeconomic parameters are statistically significant on the percentage change of total deposits. In model 1; the effects of IPI(Industial Production Index) and CPI (Consumer Price Index) are statistically significant according to Huber-Eicker-White robust estimator and Arellona-Froot-Rogers robust estimator. But related to Parks-Kmenta robust estimator only CPI and Export are resulted as significantly. Similarly in model 2; the effects of CPI,Import,Export are statistically significant according to all robust estimator. But related to Parks-Kmenta robust estimator GDP (Gross Domestic Products) is resulted as significantly according to 95 percent level of significance. In brief; in this paper we see that the periodic changes in the parameters of macroeconomic indicators effects the Banking Sector Total Deposits in Turkey significantly .

The relationship between developments in the banking sector and macroeconomic factors in country'... more The relationship between developments in the banking sector and macroeconomic factors in country's economy has been the focus of both the economy and the banking literature. As a result of this; various research and sturies that investigate the effects on the banking sector have been done on economic performances of countries and financial developments. Because these reearch and studies are very important not only for the development of banking sector but also determining the principles of the strategies that will be developed the banking sector towards the future together with doing accurate prediction.By way of this thought, in this paper, the relationship between the periodic changes in the "credit/deposit ratio" (shortly CDR) of the banking sector and the periodic changes in macroeconomic parameters has been investigated in Turkey for the period 2002-2016. Deposits, Credits and CDR were mentioned in part II as a fact of Turkey's Banking Sector View. GDP, CPI, IPI, Export and Import were mentioned in part III as an elements of Turkey's Macroeconomic View. Data set and methodology were mentioned in part IV. According to the results obtained; we claim that in Turkey Banking Sector, the percentage change of credit to deposits ratio is affected by both the percentage change of import and the percentage change of CPI strongly, that is as imports increase in Turkey, the credit to deposit rate increases and similarly as CPI increase, the credit to deposit rate increases too. Moreover; we claim that Imports in Turkey are financed by bank credits. As imports increase, the need for bank credits are also increasing. We claim also that imports are not an increasing effects on savings in Turkey. Similarly; we claim that CPI must be reduced to increase savings. Otherwise; as inflation increases, the demand for credit will increase because there is a need for additional resources due to decrease of the purchasing ability of the existing assets.

The Journal of International Social Research, 2017

Journal of International Social Research

Journal of International Social Research

Journal of International Social Research

The Journal of International Social Research, 2019

In this study, we examine the determinants of foreign exchange rate, in other words the macroecon... more In this study, we examine the determinants of foreign exchange rate, in other words the macroeconomic variables which are affecting the foreign exchange rate and especially whether the foreign exchange rate are influenced by the central banks' gold reserves. The most important feature of the study is to determine the relationships between foreign exchange rate with the various macroeconomic variables such as GDP, M1, Import, Export, Gold Reserve, Total Reserves by panel data modeling, and also to handle the forecasts models for predicting the exchange rate in a summary and understandable way. By way of this thought, in this paper, the relationships between foreign exchange rate with the various macroeconomic variables have been investigated for G20 countries () for the period 2000-2017 with two regression models. Data set and methodology were mentioned in part III. According to the results obtained; we claim that the effects of percentage changes of macroeconomic parameters via both quarterly and yearly are statistically significant on the percentage change of USD exchange rate against national currency. In model-1 related with quarterly change; the results could be seen on table-4 and similarly in model-2 related with yearly change; the results could be seen on table-5. In brief; in this paper we see that the periodic changes both in the parameters of macroeconomic indicators and gold reserves within quantity and size directly effect the USD exchange rate against natioanl currency strongly.

The low savings caused by the low income level leads to a low investment, which leads to a increa... more The low savings caused by the low income level leads to a low investment, which leads to a increase in unemployment, to a decrease in production and national income and due to decreased national income it is caused to an inadequate savings in a vicious circle over again. This vicious circle is causing emerging countries to struggle to finance themselves at the point of increasing their economic performance and growth. By way of this thought, in this paper, the relationship between the periodic changes of the banking sector total deposits and the periodic changes in macroeconomic parameters have been investigated in Turkey for the period 2002-2016 with two models. Mentioned in the OECD reports dated 2015; %75 of total household financial assets in Turkey is composing from currency and deposits as can be seen in Figure 1, so in this paper total deposits are thought as savings for Turkey. Data set and methodology were mentioned in part III. According to the results obtained; we claim that in Turkey Banking Sector, the effects of percentage changes of macroeconomic parameters are statistically significant on the percentage change of total deposits. In model 1; the effects of IPI(Industial Production Index) and CPI (Consumer Price Index) are statistically significant according to Huber-Eicker-White robust estimator and Arellona-Froot-Rogers robust estimator. But related to Parks-Kmenta robust estimator only CPI and Export are resulted as significantly. Similarly in model 2; the effects of CPI,Import,Export are statistically significant according to all robust estimator. But related to Parks-Kmenta robust estimator GDP (Gross Domestic Products) is resulted as significantly according to 95 percent level of significance. In brief; in this paper we see that the periodic changes in the parameters of macroeconomic indicators effects the Banking Sector Total Deposits in Turkey significantly .

The relationship between developments in the banking sector and macroeconomic factors in country'... more The relationship between developments in the banking sector and macroeconomic factors in country's economy has been the focus of both the economy and the banking literature. As a result of this; various research and sturies that investigate the effects on the banking sector have been done on economic performances of countries and financial developments. Because these reearch and studies are very important not only for the development of banking sector but also determining the principles of the strategies that will be developed the banking sector towards the future together with doing accurate prediction.By way of this thought, in this paper, the relationship between the periodic changes in the "credit/deposit ratio" (shortly CDR) of the banking sector and the periodic changes in macroeconomic parameters has been investigated in Turkey for the period 2002-2016. Deposits, Credits and CDR were mentioned in part II as a fact of Turkey's Banking Sector View. GDP, CPI, IPI, Export and Import were mentioned in part III as an elements of Turkey's Macroeconomic View. Data set and methodology were mentioned in part IV. According to the results obtained; we claim that in Turkey Banking Sector, the percentage change of credit to deposits ratio is affected by both the percentage change of import and the percentage change of CPI strongly, that is as imports increase in Turkey, the credit to deposit rate increases and similarly as CPI increase, the credit to deposit rate increases too. Moreover; we claim that Imports in Turkey are financed by bank credits. As imports increase, the need for bank credits are also increasing. We claim also that imports are not an increasing effects on savings in Turkey. Similarly; we claim that CPI must be reduced to increase savings. Otherwise; as inflation increases, the demand for credit will increase because there is a need for additional resources due to decrease of the purchasing ability of the existing assets.