Joe Uscinski | University of Miami (original) (raw)

Papers by Joe Uscinski

Handbook of Conspiracy Theory and Contemporary Religion, 2018

Palgrave Communications, 2019

Conspiracy theories and other pseudo-scientific claims about the Zika virus have been prominent o... more Conspiracy theories and other pseudo-scientific claims about the Zika virus have been prominent on social media. To what extent are the public concerned about the virus, and to what extent have the public adopted Zika conspiracy theories? Using data from the 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Study, we show that a majority of Americans are not concerned about the Zika virus, but approximately one in five Americans believes in at least one Zika-related conspiracy theory. The most widely believed is that the virus is caused by genetically modified mosquitoes. We find that elevated levels of conspiracy thinking are correlated with both concern over Zika and belief in Zika-related conspiracy theories. For example, a person scoring the maximum on the conspiratorial thinking scale is estimated to believe in .61 Zika conspiracy theories while a person scoring the minimum is estimated to believe in only .06 Zika conspiracy theories. This study demonstrates the role of predispositions, specifically underlying conspiracy thinking, in the acceptance of conspiratorial and unscientific beliefs.

Misinformation Review, 2021

As conspiracy theories about COVID-19 take root in the United States, understanding the psycholog... more As conspiracy theories about COVID-19 take root in the United States, understanding the psychological foundations of conspiracy beliefs is increasingly critical. Our research shows that beliefs in two popular variants of COVID-19 conspiracy theory are the joint product of the psychological predispositions 1) to reject information coming from experts and other authority figures and 2) to view major events as the product of conspiracies, as well as partisan and ideological motivations. The psychological foundations of conspiracy beliefs have implications for the development of strategies designed to curtail their negative consequences.

Electoral Studies, 2021

The 2020 presidential campaign was plagued by charges of voter fraud both before and after the el... more The 2020 presidential campaign was plagued by charges of voter fraud both before and after the election took place. While past literature finds that electoral losers are most likely to express misgivings about election integrity, little else is known about the characteristics of individuals who exhibit these beliefs or how the beliefs have changed over time. Employing national surveys from 2012, 2016, 2018, and 2020, we examine the levels of pre-election expectations of fraud in the event of an electoral loss over time, as well as the individual-level correlates of beliefs in a range of election-related conspiracy theories prominent in 2020. Our analysis reveals that beliefs in election fraud are common and stable across time, and only occasionally relate to partisanship. Moreover, we find that, even accounting for the influence of partisan motivated reasoning, several psychological orientations––conspiracy thinking, anomie, dark triad personality traits, and denialism––play a unique role in promoting perceptions of voter fraud.

Group Processes & Intergroup Relations, 2021

Since beliefs in dubious ideas lead to negative medical, social, and political outcomes (Jolley e... more Since beliefs in dubious ideas lead to negative medical, social, and political outcomes (Jolley et al., 2019; Oliver & Wood, 2014b; van der Linden, 2015), understanding beliefs in misinformation, antiscientific claims, and conspiracy theories has become a critical area of study for researchers (Douglas et al., 2019; Flynn et al., 2017; Lazer et al., 2018). Effectively curtailing the spread and impact of dubious ideas requires an understanding of who is most likely to believe such claims, for what reasons, and through what mechanisms. Thus, an expanding facet of this research involves investigating which political groups-especially liberals and conservatives, extremists and moderates-are most likely to believe in unsubstantiated claims and alternative

Journal of General Internal Medicine, 2021

A highly anticipated COVID-19 vaccine has the potential to slow the pandemic in 2021. But a prepo... more A highly anticipated COVID-19 vaccine has the potential to slow the pandemic in 2021. But a preponderance of misinformation, including conspiracy theories spreading through social media, has left much of the American public skeptical of vaccine candidates, and may undermine vaccine adherence.1 Up to 40% of Americans either do not intend to be vaccinated, or are unsure.2

Black Americans have borne a particularly disproportionate share of COVID-19 infections,3 and surveys have revealed higher rates of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy among Black Americans relative to other racial/ethnic groups.2 Centuries of medical racism and subsequent medical mistrust among racial/ethnic minorities3 has left COVID-19 vaccine trials struggling to achieve diverse participation. This casts doubt on many communities’ ability to eventually achieve herd immunity.1 Efforts to increase trust among Black Americans may help alleviate these problems, but the relationships between race, COVID-19 beliefs, trust, and vaccine hesitancy are complicated.2 A richer understanding of these dynamics is crucial for diversifying participation in clinical trials and reducing vaccine hesitancy. We used nationally representative survey data from June 2020 to test the hypothesis that Black race would interact with medical trust to undermine COVID-19 vaccine willingness.

Journal of Social and Political Psychology, 2021

Despite regular reference to conspiracy theories as a "belief system, " few studies have attempte... more Despite regular reference to conspiracy theories as a "belief system, " few studies have attempted to explore the structure and organization of conspiracy beliefs beyond an examination of correlations between those beliefs. Employing unique data from two national surveys that includes respondent beliefs in 27 conspiracy theories, we decipher the substantive dimensions along which conspiracy beliefs are organized, as well as subgroupings within those dimensions. We find that variation in these conspiracy beliefs can be accounted for with two dimensions: the first regards partisan and ideological identities, while the other is composed of antisocial orientations, such as narcissism, Machiavellianism, psychopathy, and acceptance of political violence. Importantly, these two dimensions are uncorrelated. We also find that conspiracy beliefs group together by substantive content, such as those regarding partisan actors or science/medicine. Our findings also demonstrate that inferences about the correlates of conspiracy beliefs are highly contingent on the specific conspiracy theories employed by researchers. We provide suggestions for future research in this vein.

American Journal of Political Science, 2021

Contemporary political ills at the mass behavior level (e.g., outgroup aggression, conspiracy the... more Contemporary political ills at the mass behavior level (e.g., outgroup aggression, conspiracy theories) are often attributed to increasing polarization and partisan tribalism. We theorize that many such problems are less the product of left-right orientations than an orthogonal "anti-establishment" dimension of opinion dominated by conspiracy, populist, and Manichean orientations. Using two national surveys from 2019 and 2020, we find that this dimension of opinion is correlated with several antisocial psychological traits, the acceptance of political violence, and time spent on extremist social media platforms. It is also related to support for populist candidates, such as Trump and Sanders, and beliefs in misinformation and conspiracy theories. While many inherently view politics as a conflict between left and right, others see it as a battle between "the people" and a corrupt establishment. Our findings demonstrate an urgent need to expand the traditional conceptualization of mass opinion beyond familiar left-right identities and affective orientations.

Political Behavior, 2021

Numerous studies find associations between social media use and beliefs in conspiracy theories an... more Numerous studies find associations between social media use and beliefs in conspiracy theories and misinformation. While such findings are often interpreted as evidence that social media causally promotes conspiracy beliefs, we theorize that this relationship is conditional on other individual-level predispositions. Across two studies, we examine the relationship between beliefs in conspiracy theories and media use, finding that individuals who get their news from social media and use social media frequently express more beliefs in some types of conspiracy theories and misinformation. However, we also find that these relationships are conditional on conspiracy thinking-the predisposition to interpret salient events as products of conspiracies-such that social media use becomes more strongly associated with conspiracy beliefs as conspiracy thinking intensifies. This pattern, which we observe across many beliefs from two studies, clarifies the relationship between social media use and beliefs in dubious ideas.

American Politics Research, 2021

Scholars have identified many social-psychological factors correlated with support for Donald Tru... more Scholars have identified many social-psychological factors correlated with support for Donald Trump; however, attempts at modeling these factors tend to suffer from omitted variable bias on the one hand, or multicollinearity on the other. Both issues obscure inferences. Using two nationally representative surveys, we demonstrate the perils of including or failing to include many of these factors in models of Trump support. We then reconceptualize the social-psychological sources of Trump support as components of a broader "profile" of factors that explains Trump support in 2018 and vote choice in 2016, as well as attitudes about issues connected to Trump. Moreover, this profile-an amalgamation of attitudes about, for example, racial groups, immigrants, and political correctness-rivals partisanship and ideology as predictors of Trump support and is negatively related to support for mainstream Republican candidates. Our analyses suggest that Trump benefited from activating dimensions of public opinion that transcend traditional party cleavages.

Misinformation Review, 2020

As the COVID-19 pandemic progresses, an understanding of the structure and organization of belief... more As the COVID-19 pandemic progresses, an understanding of the structure and organization of beliefs in pandemic conspiracy theories and misinformation becomes increasingly critical for addressing the threat posed by these dubious ideas. In polling Americans about beliefs in 11 such ideas, we observed clear groupings of beliefs that correspond with different individual-level characteristics (e.g., support for Trump, distrust of scientists) and behavioral intentions (e.g., to take a vaccine, to engage in social activities). Moreover, we found that conspiracy theories enjoy more support, on average, than misinformation about dangerous health practices. Our findings suggest several paths for policymakers, communicators, and scientists to minimize the spread and impact of COVID-19 misinformation and conspiracy theories.

American Journal of Political Science, 2021

Growing levels of polarization and out-group hostility have become fashionable explanations for t... more Growing levels of polarization and out-group hostility have become fashionable explanations for the caustic politics of the Trump presidency. However, partisan and ideological identities cannot explain popular attraction to Trump's anti-elite and populist rhetoric, nor can polarization and sorting account for rising levels of mass identification as political independents. In light of these discrepancies, we offer an explanation for the Trump era unrelated to traditional left-right identities and ideologies: anti-establishment orientations. We argue that much of what is interpreted as an expression of partisan and ideological extremism or polarization is actually the product of a deep-seated antagonism toward the broader political establishment. We first exhibit the individual-level correlates of anti-establishment orientations, finding that people holding strong antiestablishment views exhibit relatively high levels of antisocial personality traits and distrust of others. We then show that anti-establishment orientations are more predictive than left-right orientations of beliefs in conspiracy theories regarding COVID-19, QAnon, and voter fraud. Most importantly, we demonstrate that, while anti-establishment orientations are positively related to support for Donald Trump, they are negatively related to support for Joe Biden and both major parties. In short, the toxicity emblematic of the Trump era-support for outsider candidates, belief in conspiracy theories, corrosive rhetoric, and violence-are derivative of antipathy towards the established political order, rather than a strict adherence to partisan and ideological dogma. We conclude that Trump's most powerful and unique impact on American electoral politics is his activation, inflammation, and manipulation of preexisting anti-establishment orientations for partisan ends.

During the last decade, social scientists have taken a strong interest in both the veracity of ci... more During the last decade, social scientists have taken a strong interest in both the veracity of citizens beliefs and the quality of information on which those beliefs are based. In particular, social scientists have focused much of this work on conspiracy theories given how such theories can undermine government initiatives. The extant literature shows: (1) that the current information environment allows conspiracy theories to spread among citizens farther and faster than ever before; (2) that most Americans believe conspiracy theories; and (3) that conspiracy theories can generate undesirable political and social outcomes. While social scientists have been working to both understand and correct conspiracy beliefs, this literature has yet to inform or to be informed by the relevant scholarship in public administration. This short article attempts to synthesize the conspiracy theory and public administration literatures to make informed recommendations to public administration scholars and public administrators who engage in public outreach during this era of "post-truth."

The release of classified documents through outlets like WikiLeaks has transformed American polit... more The release of classified documents through outlets like WikiLeaks has transformed American politics by shedding light on the innerworkings of governments, parties, and corporations. The high-profile criminal cases associated with such releases -those of Julian Assange, Chelsea Manning, and Edward Snowden -have highlighted important questions about journalism, government secrecy, and the public's "right to know." Scholars have focused on the journalistic and legalistic implications but have yet to explore how the public views those who release classified materials, and what factors affect those views. Using data from the 2018 Cooperative Congressional Election Study, we provide results from three embedded experiments testing the effects of two forms of framing on favorability ratings toward Assange, Manning, and Snowden. The first frame addresses partisanship (i.e., which party is injured by the release) and the second addresses how the action is framed (i.e., did the person "leak" or "blow the whistle"). The data show that both the party and leaking/whistleblowing frames significantly affect favorability in expected ways. The release of classified materials comes with both costs and benefits, but public opinion appears to be more sensitive to its implications for partisan competition.

Recently, governments, commercial firms, and individuals have increased their use of unmanned aer... more Recently, governments, commercial firms, and individuals have increased their use of unmanned aerial vehicles (i.e., " drones "). As with many new technologies, drone use has outpaced government oversight. Attempts to regulate the technology have been met with intense public backlash. Therefore, governments need to understand the public's preferences for a regulatory regime. Analyzing national survey data, we address two questions: (a) What policies do Americans prefer for the regulation of drones? and (b) Does the public believe the federal, state, or local government or nongovernmental actors should be responsible for regulating drone use? Public preferences are one of several important inputs affecting policymaking; therefore, our results provide an important overview of current public opinion toward drone policy, as well as a theoretical blueprint for understanding how such opinions might fluctuate overtime. The use of drones (unmanned aerial vehicles) by the Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD) sparked heated debate in 2017. The controversy began 3 years prior when the LAPD acquired two drones but were deterred from

The “conspiracy theories are for losers” argument suggests that out-of-power groups use conspirac... more The “conspiracy theories are for losers” argument suggests that out-of-power groups use conspiracy theories to sensitize minds, close ranks, and encourage collective action. Two necessary conditions of this argument are that (1) group members subscribe mostly to conspiracy theories that malign out-groups or bolster their in-group, and (2) group members must recognize whether conspiracy theories emanate from their own group, an opposing group, or are outside of partisan conflict. Using representative survey data from the 2012 Cooperative Congressional Election Study, we show that conspiracy accusations follow the contours of partisan conflict: partisans accuse opposing groups, rather than co-partisans or non-partisans, of conspiring. Using MTurk data, we show that partisans can differentiate between the conspiracy theories coming from members of each party. We suggest that many conspiracy beliefs behave like most partisan attitudes; they follow the contours of partisan conflict and act as calling cards that send clear signals to co-partisans.

Even though climate scientists are nearly unanimous that climate change is real and manmade, abou... more Even though climate scientists are nearly unanimous that climate change is real and manmade, about 40% of Americans reject the scientific consensus. Why? The largest contributing factor is partisanship; however, recent studies argue that underlying conspiracy thinking exerts a positive, linear effect on climate change denial. In this article, we reexamine the effect of conspiracy thinking on climate change attitudes by accounting for the various pathways that conspiracy thinking could drive denialism in a politically polarized environment. We find the effects of conspiracy thinking on climate change denial are not only larger than previously suggested, but also non-monotonic and conditional on individuals’ party identification. Moreover, we find evidence suggesting conspiracy thinking affects independents’ positions, and even their partisan leanings. These findings further explain why people reject the scientific consensus on climate change, and suggest that climate change denial is not merely the product of partisan polarization.

An overwhelming percentage of climate scientists agree that human activity is causing the global ... more An overwhelming percentage of climate scientists agree that human activity is causing the global climate to change in ways that will have deleterious consequences both for the environment and for humankind. While scientists have alerted both the public and policy makers to the dangers of continuing or increasing the current rate of carbon emission, policy proposals intended to curb carbon emission and thereby mitigate climate change have been resisted by a notable segment of the public. Some of this resistance comes from those not wanting to incur costs or change energy sources (i.e., the carbon-based energy industry). Others oppose policies intended to address climate change for ideological reasons (i.e., they are opposed to the collectivist nature of the solutions usually proposed). But perhaps the most alarming and visible are those who oppose solutions to climate change because they believe, or at least claim to believe, that anthropogenic climate change is not really happening and that climate scientists are lying and their data is fake.

Belief in electoral fraud has received heightened attention due to elite rhetoric and controversi... more Belief in electoral fraud has received heightened attention due to elite rhetoric and controversial voter identification (ID) laws. Using a two-wave national survey administered before and after the 2012 election, we examine the individual-level correlates of belief in a range of election-related conspiracy theories. Our data show that partisanship affects the timing and content of belief in election-related conspiracy theories, but a general disposition toward conspiratorial thinking strongly influences those beliefs. Support for voter ID laws, in contrast, appears to be driven largely by party identification through elite-mass linkages. Our analysis suggests that belief in election fraud is a common and predictable consequence of both underlying conspiratorial thinking and motivated partisan reasoning.

Handbook of Conspiracy Theory and Contemporary Religion, 2018

Palgrave Communications, 2019

Conspiracy theories and other pseudo-scientific claims about the Zika virus have been prominent o... more Conspiracy theories and other pseudo-scientific claims about the Zika virus have been prominent on social media. To what extent are the public concerned about the virus, and to what extent have the public adopted Zika conspiracy theories? Using data from the 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Study, we show that a majority of Americans are not concerned about the Zika virus, but approximately one in five Americans believes in at least one Zika-related conspiracy theory. The most widely believed is that the virus is caused by genetically modified mosquitoes. We find that elevated levels of conspiracy thinking are correlated with both concern over Zika and belief in Zika-related conspiracy theories. For example, a person scoring the maximum on the conspiratorial thinking scale is estimated to believe in .61 Zika conspiracy theories while a person scoring the minimum is estimated to believe in only .06 Zika conspiracy theories. This study demonstrates the role of predispositions, specifically underlying conspiracy thinking, in the acceptance of conspiratorial and unscientific beliefs.

Misinformation Review, 2021

As conspiracy theories about COVID-19 take root in the United States, understanding the psycholog... more As conspiracy theories about COVID-19 take root in the United States, understanding the psychological foundations of conspiracy beliefs is increasingly critical. Our research shows that beliefs in two popular variants of COVID-19 conspiracy theory are the joint product of the psychological predispositions 1) to reject information coming from experts and other authority figures and 2) to view major events as the product of conspiracies, as well as partisan and ideological motivations. The psychological foundations of conspiracy beliefs have implications for the development of strategies designed to curtail their negative consequences.

Electoral Studies, 2021

The 2020 presidential campaign was plagued by charges of voter fraud both before and after the el... more The 2020 presidential campaign was plagued by charges of voter fraud both before and after the election took place. While past literature finds that electoral losers are most likely to express misgivings about election integrity, little else is known about the characteristics of individuals who exhibit these beliefs or how the beliefs have changed over time. Employing national surveys from 2012, 2016, 2018, and 2020, we examine the levels of pre-election expectations of fraud in the event of an electoral loss over time, as well as the individual-level correlates of beliefs in a range of election-related conspiracy theories prominent in 2020. Our analysis reveals that beliefs in election fraud are common and stable across time, and only occasionally relate to partisanship. Moreover, we find that, even accounting for the influence of partisan motivated reasoning, several psychological orientations––conspiracy thinking, anomie, dark triad personality traits, and denialism––play a unique role in promoting perceptions of voter fraud.

Group Processes & Intergroup Relations, 2021

Since beliefs in dubious ideas lead to negative medical, social, and political outcomes (Jolley e... more Since beliefs in dubious ideas lead to negative medical, social, and political outcomes (Jolley et al., 2019; Oliver & Wood, 2014b; van der Linden, 2015), understanding beliefs in misinformation, antiscientific claims, and conspiracy theories has become a critical area of study for researchers (Douglas et al., 2019; Flynn et al., 2017; Lazer et al., 2018). Effectively curtailing the spread and impact of dubious ideas requires an understanding of who is most likely to believe such claims, for what reasons, and through what mechanisms. Thus, an expanding facet of this research involves investigating which political groups-especially liberals and conservatives, extremists and moderates-are most likely to believe in unsubstantiated claims and alternative

Journal of General Internal Medicine, 2021

A highly anticipated COVID-19 vaccine has the potential to slow the pandemic in 2021. But a prepo... more A highly anticipated COVID-19 vaccine has the potential to slow the pandemic in 2021. But a preponderance of misinformation, including conspiracy theories spreading through social media, has left much of the American public skeptical of vaccine candidates, and may undermine vaccine adherence.1 Up to 40% of Americans either do not intend to be vaccinated, or are unsure.2

Black Americans have borne a particularly disproportionate share of COVID-19 infections,3 and surveys have revealed higher rates of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy among Black Americans relative to other racial/ethnic groups.2 Centuries of medical racism and subsequent medical mistrust among racial/ethnic minorities3 has left COVID-19 vaccine trials struggling to achieve diverse participation. This casts doubt on many communities’ ability to eventually achieve herd immunity.1 Efforts to increase trust among Black Americans may help alleviate these problems, but the relationships between race, COVID-19 beliefs, trust, and vaccine hesitancy are complicated.2 A richer understanding of these dynamics is crucial for diversifying participation in clinical trials and reducing vaccine hesitancy. We used nationally representative survey data from June 2020 to test the hypothesis that Black race would interact with medical trust to undermine COVID-19 vaccine willingness.

Journal of Social and Political Psychology, 2021

Despite regular reference to conspiracy theories as a "belief system, " few studies have attempte... more Despite regular reference to conspiracy theories as a "belief system, " few studies have attempted to explore the structure and organization of conspiracy beliefs beyond an examination of correlations between those beliefs. Employing unique data from two national surveys that includes respondent beliefs in 27 conspiracy theories, we decipher the substantive dimensions along which conspiracy beliefs are organized, as well as subgroupings within those dimensions. We find that variation in these conspiracy beliefs can be accounted for with two dimensions: the first regards partisan and ideological identities, while the other is composed of antisocial orientations, such as narcissism, Machiavellianism, psychopathy, and acceptance of political violence. Importantly, these two dimensions are uncorrelated. We also find that conspiracy beliefs group together by substantive content, such as those regarding partisan actors or science/medicine. Our findings also demonstrate that inferences about the correlates of conspiracy beliefs are highly contingent on the specific conspiracy theories employed by researchers. We provide suggestions for future research in this vein.

American Journal of Political Science, 2021

Contemporary political ills at the mass behavior level (e.g., outgroup aggression, conspiracy the... more Contemporary political ills at the mass behavior level (e.g., outgroup aggression, conspiracy theories) are often attributed to increasing polarization and partisan tribalism. We theorize that many such problems are less the product of left-right orientations than an orthogonal "anti-establishment" dimension of opinion dominated by conspiracy, populist, and Manichean orientations. Using two national surveys from 2019 and 2020, we find that this dimension of opinion is correlated with several antisocial psychological traits, the acceptance of political violence, and time spent on extremist social media platforms. It is also related to support for populist candidates, such as Trump and Sanders, and beliefs in misinformation and conspiracy theories. While many inherently view politics as a conflict between left and right, others see it as a battle between "the people" and a corrupt establishment. Our findings demonstrate an urgent need to expand the traditional conceptualization of mass opinion beyond familiar left-right identities and affective orientations.

Political Behavior, 2021

Numerous studies find associations between social media use and beliefs in conspiracy theories an... more Numerous studies find associations between social media use and beliefs in conspiracy theories and misinformation. While such findings are often interpreted as evidence that social media causally promotes conspiracy beliefs, we theorize that this relationship is conditional on other individual-level predispositions. Across two studies, we examine the relationship between beliefs in conspiracy theories and media use, finding that individuals who get their news from social media and use social media frequently express more beliefs in some types of conspiracy theories and misinformation. However, we also find that these relationships are conditional on conspiracy thinking-the predisposition to interpret salient events as products of conspiracies-such that social media use becomes more strongly associated with conspiracy beliefs as conspiracy thinking intensifies. This pattern, which we observe across many beliefs from two studies, clarifies the relationship between social media use and beliefs in dubious ideas.

American Politics Research, 2021

Scholars have identified many social-psychological factors correlated with support for Donald Tru... more Scholars have identified many social-psychological factors correlated with support for Donald Trump; however, attempts at modeling these factors tend to suffer from omitted variable bias on the one hand, or multicollinearity on the other. Both issues obscure inferences. Using two nationally representative surveys, we demonstrate the perils of including or failing to include many of these factors in models of Trump support. We then reconceptualize the social-psychological sources of Trump support as components of a broader "profile" of factors that explains Trump support in 2018 and vote choice in 2016, as well as attitudes about issues connected to Trump. Moreover, this profile-an amalgamation of attitudes about, for example, racial groups, immigrants, and political correctness-rivals partisanship and ideology as predictors of Trump support and is negatively related to support for mainstream Republican candidates. Our analyses suggest that Trump benefited from activating dimensions of public opinion that transcend traditional party cleavages.

Misinformation Review, 2020

As the COVID-19 pandemic progresses, an understanding of the structure and organization of belief... more As the COVID-19 pandemic progresses, an understanding of the structure and organization of beliefs in pandemic conspiracy theories and misinformation becomes increasingly critical for addressing the threat posed by these dubious ideas. In polling Americans about beliefs in 11 such ideas, we observed clear groupings of beliefs that correspond with different individual-level characteristics (e.g., support for Trump, distrust of scientists) and behavioral intentions (e.g., to take a vaccine, to engage in social activities). Moreover, we found that conspiracy theories enjoy more support, on average, than misinformation about dangerous health practices. Our findings suggest several paths for policymakers, communicators, and scientists to minimize the spread and impact of COVID-19 misinformation and conspiracy theories.

American Journal of Political Science, 2021

Growing levels of polarization and out-group hostility have become fashionable explanations for t... more Growing levels of polarization and out-group hostility have become fashionable explanations for the caustic politics of the Trump presidency. However, partisan and ideological identities cannot explain popular attraction to Trump's anti-elite and populist rhetoric, nor can polarization and sorting account for rising levels of mass identification as political independents. In light of these discrepancies, we offer an explanation for the Trump era unrelated to traditional left-right identities and ideologies: anti-establishment orientations. We argue that much of what is interpreted as an expression of partisan and ideological extremism or polarization is actually the product of a deep-seated antagonism toward the broader political establishment. We first exhibit the individual-level correlates of anti-establishment orientations, finding that people holding strong antiestablishment views exhibit relatively high levels of antisocial personality traits and distrust of others. We then show that anti-establishment orientations are more predictive than left-right orientations of beliefs in conspiracy theories regarding COVID-19, QAnon, and voter fraud. Most importantly, we demonstrate that, while anti-establishment orientations are positively related to support for Donald Trump, they are negatively related to support for Joe Biden and both major parties. In short, the toxicity emblematic of the Trump era-support for outsider candidates, belief in conspiracy theories, corrosive rhetoric, and violence-are derivative of antipathy towards the established political order, rather than a strict adherence to partisan and ideological dogma. We conclude that Trump's most powerful and unique impact on American electoral politics is his activation, inflammation, and manipulation of preexisting anti-establishment orientations for partisan ends.

During the last decade, social scientists have taken a strong interest in both the veracity of ci... more During the last decade, social scientists have taken a strong interest in both the veracity of citizens beliefs and the quality of information on which those beliefs are based. In particular, social scientists have focused much of this work on conspiracy theories given how such theories can undermine government initiatives. The extant literature shows: (1) that the current information environment allows conspiracy theories to spread among citizens farther and faster than ever before; (2) that most Americans believe conspiracy theories; and (3) that conspiracy theories can generate undesirable political and social outcomes. While social scientists have been working to both understand and correct conspiracy beliefs, this literature has yet to inform or to be informed by the relevant scholarship in public administration. This short article attempts to synthesize the conspiracy theory and public administration literatures to make informed recommendations to public administration scholars and public administrators who engage in public outreach during this era of "post-truth."

The release of classified documents through outlets like WikiLeaks has transformed American polit... more The release of classified documents through outlets like WikiLeaks has transformed American politics by shedding light on the innerworkings of governments, parties, and corporations. The high-profile criminal cases associated with such releases -those of Julian Assange, Chelsea Manning, and Edward Snowden -have highlighted important questions about journalism, government secrecy, and the public's "right to know." Scholars have focused on the journalistic and legalistic implications but have yet to explore how the public views those who release classified materials, and what factors affect those views. Using data from the 2018 Cooperative Congressional Election Study, we provide results from three embedded experiments testing the effects of two forms of framing on favorability ratings toward Assange, Manning, and Snowden. The first frame addresses partisanship (i.e., which party is injured by the release) and the second addresses how the action is framed (i.e., did the person "leak" or "blow the whistle"). The data show that both the party and leaking/whistleblowing frames significantly affect favorability in expected ways. The release of classified materials comes with both costs and benefits, but public opinion appears to be more sensitive to its implications for partisan competition.

Recently, governments, commercial firms, and individuals have increased their use of unmanned aer... more Recently, governments, commercial firms, and individuals have increased their use of unmanned aerial vehicles (i.e., " drones "). As with many new technologies, drone use has outpaced government oversight. Attempts to regulate the technology have been met with intense public backlash. Therefore, governments need to understand the public's preferences for a regulatory regime. Analyzing national survey data, we address two questions: (a) What policies do Americans prefer for the regulation of drones? and (b) Does the public believe the federal, state, or local government or nongovernmental actors should be responsible for regulating drone use? Public preferences are one of several important inputs affecting policymaking; therefore, our results provide an important overview of current public opinion toward drone policy, as well as a theoretical blueprint for understanding how such opinions might fluctuate overtime. The use of drones (unmanned aerial vehicles) by the Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD) sparked heated debate in 2017. The controversy began 3 years prior when the LAPD acquired two drones but were deterred from

The “conspiracy theories are for losers” argument suggests that out-of-power groups use conspirac... more The “conspiracy theories are for losers” argument suggests that out-of-power groups use conspiracy theories to sensitize minds, close ranks, and encourage collective action. Two necessary conditions of this argument are that (1) group members subscribe mostly to conspiracy theories that malign out-groups or bolster their in-group, and (2) group members must recognize whether conspiracy theories emanate from their own group, an opposing group, or are outside of partisan conflict. Using representative survey data from the 2012 Cooperative Congressional Election Study, we show that conspiracy accusations follow the contours of partisan conflict: partisans accuse opposing groups, rather than co-partisans or non-partisans, of conspiring. Using MTurk data, we show that partisans can differentiate between the conspiracy theories coming from members of each party. We suggest that many conspiracy beliefs behave like most partisan attitudes; they follow the contours of partisan conflict and act as calling cards that send clear signals to co-partisans.

Even though climate scientists are nearly unanimous that climate change is real and manmade, abou... more Even though climate scientists are nearly unanimous that climate change is real and manmade, about 40% of Americans reject the scientific consensus. Why? The largest contributing factor is partisanship; however, recent studies argue that underlying conspiracy thinking exerts a positive, linear effect on climate change denial. In this article, we reexamine the effect of conspiracy thinking on climate change attitudes by accounting for the various pathways that conspiracy thinking could drive denialism in a politically polarized environment. We find the effects of conspiracy thinking on climate change denial are not only larger than previously suggested, but also non-monotonic and conditional on individuals’ party identification. Moreover, we find evidence suggesting conspiracy thinking affects independents’ positions, and even their partisan leanings. These findings further explain why people reject the scientific consensus on climate change, and suggest that climate change denial is not merely the product of partisan polarization.

An overwhelming percentage of climate scientists agree that human activity is causing the global ... more An overwhelming percentage of climate scientists agree that human activity is causing the global climate to change in ways that will have deleterious consequences both for the environment and for humankind. While scientists have alerted both the public and policy makers to the dangers of continuing or increasing the current rate of carbon emission, policy proposals intended to curb carbon emission and thereby mitigate climate change have been resisted by a notable segment of the public. Some of this resistance comes from those not wanting to incur costs or change energy sources (i.e., the carbon-based energy industry). Others oppose policies intended to address climate change for ideological reasons (i.e., they are opposed to the collectivist nature of the solutions usually proposed). But perhaps the most alarming and visible are those who oppose solutions to climate change because they believe, or at least claim to believe, that anthropogenic climate change is not really happening and that climate scientists are lying and their data is fake.

Belief in electoral fraud has received heightened attention due to elite rhetoric and controversi... more Belief in electoral fraud has received heightened attention due to elite rhetoric and controversial voter identification (ID) laws. Using a two-wave national survey administered before and after the 2012 election, we examine the individual-level correlates of belief in a range of election-related conspiracy theories. Our data show that partisanship affects the timing and content of belief in election-related conspiracy theories, but a general disposition toward conspiratorial thinking strongly influences those beliefs. Support for voter ID laws, in contrast, appears to be driven largely by party identification through elite-mass linkages. Our analysis suggests that belief in election fraud is a common and predictable consequence of both underlying conspiratorial thinking and motivated partisan reasoning.