David Tschirley | Michigan State University (original) (raw)

Papers by David Tschirley

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2002

Food Security International Development Policy Syntheses, 1998

This paper presents an ex ante analysis of the private and social profitability of the introducti... more This paper presents an ex ante analysis of the private and social profitability of the introduction of Bt cotton for a major cotton producing area of northern Mozambique. Cotton is especially relevant to rural poverty reduction because smallholders often have few alternative cash earning activities, and yields are among the lowest in Africa. Multivariate regression is used to quantify the relationship between pest control and yield loss at farm level as a basis for estimating the expected yield gain from the introduction of Bt cotton. Partial budget analysis of technical packages with and without Bt cotton seed reveals a strong divergence between private (negative) and social (positive) profitability. The Mozambique case indicates that effective bio-safety and legal frameworks may be a necessary but not sufficient condition for Bt cotton technology adoption and poverty reduction. Policy changes to align private and social profitability of cotton production with Bt seed, as well as c...

This paper addresses a neglected complementary theme: the determinants of rural income. Understan... more This paper addresses a neglected complementary theme: the determinants of rural income. Understanding the determinants of rural income can be a powerful guide to designing effective interventions to accelerate rural income growth and reduce the incidence of poverty in the future. The analysis is therefore directly relevant to the implementation of the government's national poverty reduction strategy (PARPA), and especially the second phase of the national agricultural development program (PROAGRI 2) due to start in early 2005. From a perspective of "determinants," we also examine income sources, income poverty, and perceived change in economic condition. The raw material for our analysis is the TIA 2002, designed for rural income and intensively supervised on a nationally representative sample.

Although a majority of Zambians work in agriculture, only a small minority of smallholders succee... more Although a majority of Zambians work in agriculture, only a small minority of smallholders succeed in transitioning to high-productivity, high-value commercial agriculture. Only 20% of cotton farmers and less than 5% of maize and horticulture farmers succeed as top-tier commercial growers (Table 1). By tracing the long-term agricultural trajectories of successful commercial cotton, maize and horticulture farmers, this study identifies two broad agricultural pathways out of poverty. The low road, exemplified by cotton production, involves a two-generation transition via low-value but with well-structured markets. The more restrictive high road, epitomized by horticulture production, offers a steeper ascent, enabling prosperity within a single generation, but requires commensurately higher levels of financing, management and risk. Personal characteristics that define successful commercial smallholders include: • strict discipline; • treatment of farming as a business; • good managemen...

During April and May, 1994, the questionnaire was completed with the person in each household who... more During April and May, 1994, the questionnaire was completed with the person in each household who was responsible for food purchases. At this time, white maize availability was increasing due to the recent harvest, while yellow maize availability was beginning to decline after a long period of great oversupply and very low prices. The questionnaire included sections on family structure; supply sources of maize grain and meals; purchase behavior for maize grain, maize meals, and rice; two "price games" in which consumers were asked to make choices between products at differing prices; and a series of sections meant to quantify household income, including agricultural production and remittances. This brief paper presents some preliminary results from this survey. The report consists primarily of tables, with brief discussions of the implications of each.

This paper sheds light on evaluating the impacts of the opening of trade in maize with Malawi on ... more This paper sheds light on evaluating the impacts of the opening of trade in maize with Malawi on producer and consumer maize prices in selected markets of Mozambique.

This study examines the impact of the World Food Program's (WFP) Local and Regional Procureme... more This study examines the impact of the World Food Program's (WFP) Local and Regional Procurement of food aid (LRP) on households and markets. It focuses on four countries and commodities where WFP LRP has had a meaningful share of the market: maize in Uganda and Mozambique, beans in Ethiopia, and High Energy Protein Supplements (HEPS) in Ethiopia and Malawi. The study investigates three specific impacts of LRP: (1) its effect on the level and variability of local market prices, (2) the impacts of resulting price and production changes on the economic welfare of local rural and urban households, and (3) the effect of LRP purchases and related training and inspection activities on the investment decisions and trading practices of traders and processors in the food system, and hence on the development of the food supply chain.

Cotton is one of the most important smallholder cash crops in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). How to en... more Cotton is one of the most important smallholder cash crops in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). How to ensure input supply, credit recovery and competition is a subject of intense policy debate. This paper examines the performance of cotton sector development policies in Mozambique and Zambia. Both countries face the challenge of organizing input supply to farmers in the absence of rural credit markets, and competing in international markets distorted by production subsidies in developed countries. Both countries privatized cotton ginning in the 1990s. Emerging from civil war, Mozambique established geographical monopolies to interlink input and output markets and facilitate credit recovery. In Zambia, the government completely liberalized the cotton sector, forcing the private sector to deal with the problem of input distribution and credit recovery by itself. Despite being landlocked, Zambia's cotton sector has achieved better performance in terms of both value of cotton output per he...

iACKNOWLEDGMENTS The Food Security Research Project is a collaboration between the Agricultural C... more iACKNOWLEDGMENTS The Food Security Research Project is a collaboration between the Agricultural Consultative

Research Papers in Economics, 2009

Mozambique’s cotton sector is very important to the economy and to poverty reduction in the rural... more Mozambique’s cotton sector is very important to the economy and to poverty reduction in the rural sector. Cotton production in Mozambique is characterized by low levels of productivity, low prices and low returns. Cotton farmers in Mozambique are often no better off than their neighbors who do not grow cotton. Not surprisingly, many cotton farmers have switched to other crops such as sesame. But the Government of Mozambique and the National Cotton Institute (INE) are committed to improving the profitability of the cotton sector and encouraging new investments by international companies. Looking at cotton production globally, the most important innovation in recent years has been the introduction of transgenic Bt cotton. Bt cotton varieties have built-in resistance to bollworm, a devastating insect pest. Cotton production in countries that have introduced Bt varieties, like India, China and the United States, has soared. Yet no country in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), with the exception ...

Food Security Collaborative Policy Briefs, 2015

Nearly 500 processed food products across five product categories (milled grains, packaged rice, ... more Nearly 500 processed food products across five product categories (milled grains, packaged rice, dairy, fruit juices, and poultry) were identified in Dar es Salaam retail outlets; Contrary to common views, local and regional processing – not imports from outside the continent - dominate this market; Branding has expanded dramatically in the city in recent years. Branded maize meal now dominates in all retail outlet types; over 50 branded blended flour products can be found; even 20 brands of packaged rice can now be found, though currently limited to supermarket chains;

After a burst of enthusiasm through the middle part of this decade regarding the supermarket revo... more After a burst of enthusiasm through the middle part of this decade regarding the supermarket revolution, there now exists a broad consensus that this phenomenon is likely to proceed much more slowly than once thought in Sub-Saharan Africa. This is especially true in fresh produce supply chains, where both the promise and the perils of supermarket expansion have received greatest attention. In nearly the entire continent, the so-called traditional marketing sector – open air markets, dispersed informal vendors, and traditional shops – is expected to play a dominant role in fresh produce marketing for several decades. If true, this finding has profound policy implications. Specifically, it suggests that private investment in modern, integrated supply chains cannot be relied upon to solve the multitude of problems that increasingly plague these traditional production and marketing systems over a time frame acceptable to most policy makers and donors. Public engagement, preferably throu...

Miscellaneous Publications, 2015

Much of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is urbanizing rapidly and the economy is growing at a robust pac... more Much of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is urbanizing rapidly and the economy is growing at a robust pace. The overall demand for food is likely to increase dramatically over the next three decades and the composition of this demand is likely to shift away from staple grains and towards processed and fresh perishable foods, including horticultural products. Horticultural farmers will have increasing incentives to boost yields and minimize crop damage while also minimizing rising labor costs. Responding to these incentives in tropical/sub-tropical climates with high pest pressure will likely involve the substantial use of pesticides, herbicides, and fungicides, all in a lax regulatory environment where farmers may lack training in safe and effective pest control.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2006

The Journal of Modern African Studies, 2001

This paper challenges the conclusions of earlier writers regarding the roles of smallholder agric... more This paper challenges the conclusions of earlier writers regarding the roles of smallholder agriculture, commercial agriculture and wage labour in rural poverty alleviation in Mozambique. We review literature from across Sub-Saharan Africa and use recently collected household level data sets to place Mozambique within this literature. Results show that, as in the rest of SSA, wage labour earnings are concentrated among the best-off rural smallholders; these earnings increase income inequality rather than reducing it. Results also suggest that the same set of households, who are substantially better-off than others, has tended to gain and maintain access to the ‘high-wage’ end of the labour market over time. Key determinants of access to ‘high-wage’ labour are levels of education and previously accumulated household wealth. Income from wage labour plays a key role in lifting out of relative poverty those ‘female-headed’ households that can obtain it, yet only about one in five such h...

The surge in basic food commodity prices in 2007/08 and again in 2011, have led to a renewed focu... more The surge in basic food commodity prices in 2007/08 and again in 2011, have led to a renewed focus among governments and donors on agricultural growth, especially in staple food production in Sub-Saharan Africa. It is widely agreed that smallholder-led agricultural growth would contribute most to improved food security and reduced poverty. Yet, how to achieve broader and more sustainable access by smallholder farmers to productivity enhancing inputs for food crop production remains a largely unsolved riddle. In light of the great institutional diversity across cotton sectors in Sub-Saharan Africa, this study investigates whether cotton market structures can be used to spur the intensification of smallholder food production. Especially, it examines how the particular institutional structure of a cotton sector might affect its ability to spur such growth in food crop intensification and productivity. With this aim, a conceptual framework linking cotton institutional structures to food...

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2002

Food Security International Development Policy Syntheses, 1998

This paper presents an ex ante analysis of the private and social profitability of the introducti... more This paper presents an ex ante analysis of the private and social profitability of the introduction of Bt cotton for a major cotton producing area of northern Mozambique. Cotton is especially relevant to rural poverty reduction because smallholders often have few alternative cash earning activities, and yields are among the lowest in Africa. Multivariate regression is used to quantify the relationship between pest control and yield loss at farm level as a basis for estimating the expected yield gain from the introduction of Bt cotton. Partial budget analysis of technical packages with and without Bt cotton seed reveals a strong divergence between private (negative) and social (positive) profitability. The Mozambique case indicates that effective bio-safety and legal frameworks may be a necessary but not sufficient condition for Bt cotton technology adoption and poverty reduction. Policy changes to align private and social profitability of cotton production with Bt seed, as well as c...

This paper addresses a neglected complementary theme: the determinants of rural income. Understan... more This paper addresses a neglected complementary theme: the determinants of rural income. Understanding the determinants of rural income can be a powerful guide to designing effective interventions to accelerate rural income growth and reduce the incidence of poverty in the future. The analysis is therefore directly relevant to the implementation of the government's national poverty reduction strategy (PARPA), and especially the second phase of the national agricultural development program (PROAGRI 2) due to start in early 2005. From a perspective of "determinants," we also examine income sources, income poverty, and perceived change in economic condition. The raw material for our analysis is the TIA 2002, designed for rural income and intensively supervised on a nationally representative sample.

Although a majority of Zambians work in agriculture, only a small minority of smallholders succee... more Although a majority of Zambians work in agriculture, only a small minority of smallholders succeed in transitioning to high-productivity, high-value commercial agriculture. Only 20% of cotton farmers and less than 5% of maize and horticulture farmers succeed as top-tier commercial growers (Table 1). By tracing the long-term agricultural trajectories of successful commercial cotton, maize and horticulture farmers, this study identifies two broad agricultural pathways out of poverty. The low road, exemplified by cotton production, involves a two-generation transition via low-value but with well-structured markets. The more restrictive high road, epitomized by horticulture production, offers a steeper ascent, enabling prosperity within a single generation, but requires commensurately higher levels of financing, management and risk. Personal characteristics that define successful commercial smallholders include: • strict discipline; • treatment of farming as a business; • good managemen...

During April and May, 1994, the questionnaire was completed with the person in each household who... more During April and May, 1994, the questionnaire was completed with the person in each household who was responsible for food purchases. At this time, white maize availability was increasing due to the recent harvest, while yellow maize availability was beginning to decline after a long period of great oversupply and very low prices. The questionnaire included sections on family structure; supply sources of maize grain and meals; purchase behavior for maize grain, maize meals, and rice; two "price games" in which consumers were asked to make choices between products at differing prices; and a series of sections meant to quantify household income, including agricultural production and remittances. This brief paper presents some preliminary results from this survey. The report consists primarily of tables, with brief discussions of the implications of each.

This paper sheds light on evaluating the impacts of the opening of trade in maize with Malawi on ... more This paper sheds light on evaluating the impacts of the opening of trade in maize with Malawi on producer and consumer maize prices in selected markets of Mozambique.

This study examines the impact of the World Food Program's (WFP) Local and Regional Procureme... more This study examines the impact of the World Food Program's (WFP) Local and Regional Procurement of food aid (LRP) on households and markets. It focuses on four countries and commodities where WFP LRP has had a meaningful share of the market: maize in Uganda and Mozambique, beans in Ethiopia, and High Energy Protein Supplements (HEPS) in Ethiopia and Malawi. The study investigates three specific impacts of LRP: (1) its effect on the level and variability of local market prices, (2) the impacts of resulting price and production changes on the economic welfare of local rural and urban households, and (3) the effect of LRP purchases and related training and inspection activities on the investment decisions and trading practices of traders and processors in the food system, and hence on the development of the food supply chain.

Cotton is one of the most important smallholder cash crops in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). How to en... more Cotton is one of the most important smallholder cash crops in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). How to ensure input supply, credit recovery and competition is a subject of intense policy debate. This paper examines the performance of cotton sector development policies in Mozambique and Zambia. Both countries face the challenge of organizing input supply to farmers in the absence of rural credit markets, and competing in international markets distorted by production subsidies in developed countries. Both countries privatized cotton ginning in the 1990s. Emerging from civil war, Mozambique established geographical monopolies to interlink input and output markets and facilitate credit recovery. In Zambia, the government completely liberalized the cotton sector, forcing the private sector to deal with the problem of input distribution and credit recovery by itself. Despite being landlocked, Zambia's cotton sector has achieved better performance in terms of both value of cotton output per he...

iACKNOWLEDGMENTS The Food Security Research Project is a collaboration between the Agricultural C... more iACKNOWLEDGMENTS The Food Security Research Project is a collaboration between the Agricultural Consultative

Research Papers in Economics, 2009

Mozambique’s cotton sector is very important to the economy and to poverty reduction in the rural... more Mozambique’s cotton sector is very important to the economy and to poverty reduction in the rural sector. Cotton production in Mozambique is characterized by low levels of productivity, low prices and low returns. Cotton farmers in Mozambique are often no better off than their neighbors who do not grow cotton. Not surprisingly, many cotton farmers have switched to other crops such as sesame. But the Government of Mozambique and the National Cotton Institute (INE) are committed to improving the profitability of the cotton sector and encouraging new investments by international companies. Looking at cotton production globally, the most important innovation in recent years has been the introduction of transgenic Bt cotton. Bt cotton varieties have built-in resistance to bollworm, a devastating insect pest. Cotton production in countries that have introduced Bt varieties, like India, China and the United States, has soared. Yet no country in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), with the exception ...

Food Security Collaborative Policy Briefs, 2015

Nearly 500 processed food products across five product categories (milled grains, packaged rice, ... more Nearly 500 processed food products across five product categories (milled grains, packaged rice, dairy, fruit juices, and poultry) were identified in Dar es Salaam retail outlets; Contrary to common views, local and regional processing – not imports from outside the continent - dominate this market; Branding has expanded dramatically in the city in recent years. Branded maize meal now dominates in all retail outlet types; over 50 branded blended flour products can be found; even 20 brands of packaged rice can now be found, though currently limited to supermarket chains;

After a burst of enthusiasm through the middle part of this decade regarding the supermarket revo... more After a burst of enthusiasm through the middle part of this decade regarding the supermarket revolution, there now exists a broad consensus that this phenomenon is likely to proceed much more slowly than once thought in Sub-Saharan Africa. This is especially true in fresh produce supply chains, where both the promise and the perils of supermarket expansion have received greatest attention. In nearly the entire continent, the so-called traditional marketing sector – open air markets, dispersed informal vendors, and traditional shops – is expected to play a dominant role in fresh produce marketing for several decades. If true, this finding has profound policy implications. Specifically, it suggests that private investment in modern, integrated supply chains cannot be relied upon to solve the multitude of problems that increasingly plague these traditional production and marketing systems over a time frame acceptable to most policy makers and donors. Public engagement, preferably throu...

Miscellaneous Publications, 2015

Much of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is urbanizing rapidly and the economy is growing at a robust pac... more Much of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is urbanizing rapidly and the economy is growing at a robust pace. The overall demand for food is likely to increase dramatically over the next three decades and the composition of this demand is likely to shift away from staple grains and towards processed and fresh perishable foods, including horticultural products. Horticultural farmers will have increasing incentives to boost yields and minimize crop damage while also minimizing rising labor costs. Responding to these incentives in tropical/sub-tropical climates with high pest pressure will likely involve the substantial use of pesticides, herbicides, and fungicides, all in a lax regulatory environment where farmers may lack training in safe and effective pest control.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2006

The Journal of Modern African Studies, 2001

This paper challenges the conclusions of earlier writers regarding the roles of smallholder agric... more This paper challenges the conclusions of earlier writers regarding the roles of smallholder agriculture, commercial agriculture and wage labour in rural poverty alleviation in Mozambique. We review literature from across Sub-Saharan Africa and use recently collected household level data sets to place Mozambique within this literature. Results show that, as in the rest of SSA, wage labour earnings are concentrated among the best-off rural smallholders; these earnings increase income inequality rather than reducing it. Results also suggest that the same set of households, who are substantially better-off than others, has tended to gain and maintain access to the ‘high-wage’ end of the labour market over time. Key determinants of access to ‘high-wage’ labour are levels of education and previously accumulated household wealth. Income from wage labour plays a key role in lifting out of relative poverty those ‘female-headed’ households that can obtain it, yet only about one in five such h...

The surge in basic food commodity prices in 2007/08 and again in 2011, have led to a renewed focu... more The surge in basic food commodity prices in 2007/08 and again in 2011, have led to a renewed focus among governments and donors on agricultural growth, especially in staple food production in Sub-Saharan Africa. It is widely agreed that smallholder-led agricultural growth would contribute most to improved food security and reduced poverty. Yet, how to achieve broader and more sustainable access by smallholder farmers to productivity enhancing inputs for food crop production remains a largely unsolved riddle. In light of the great institutional diversity across cotton sectors in Sub-Saharan Africa, this study investigates whether cotton market structures can be used to spur the intensification of smallholder food production. Especially, it examines how the particular institutional structure of a cotton sector might affect its ability to spur such growth in food crop intensification and productivity. With this aim, a conceptual framework linking cotton institutional structures to food...