Victoria Morckel | Michigan State University (original) (raw)

Papers by Victoria Morckel

This paper presents a case study of participatory “demolition planning” for blighted, vacant prop... more This paper presents a case study of participatory “demolition planning”
for blighted, vacant properties in the legacy city of Flint, Michigan. It
outlines how the Genesee County Land Bank Authority (GCLBA) used
residents’ responses to a survey about demolition priorities to create an
algorithm that assigns demolition scores to blighted properties in Flint.
The survey results showed that residents’ top priority was demolishing
blighted properties located directly next door to occupied properties.
Fire-damaged properties, blighted properties in proximity to schools,
and blighted properties located in highly occupied neighborhoods were
the next highest priorities. There were few spatial differences in survey
responses at the neighborhood (i.e., city ward) level. We discuss the
implications of these findings and how other communities can adapt
and improve upon the GCLBA’s surveying and algorithm creation
efforts.

This study explores perceived and real effects of a human-made environmental crisis (the Flint wa... more This study explores perceived and real effects of a human-made environmental crisis (the Flint water crisis) on residential mobility and housing demand in the weak market city of Flint, Michigan, USA. We surveyed Flint residents in summer 2016 and found that a large proportion of homeowners believed the water crisis negatively affected their property values; more than half wanted to leave the city but felt constrained by the inability to sell their homes; and one-fifth considered abandoning their homes to leave the city. We used regression models to examine predictors of these responses, and spatial statistics to examine whether responses clustered in the city. Then, to see if the perceptions of homeowners reflected actual changes in the housing market caused by the crisis, we used descriptive statistics, maps, and repeated measures ANOVA models to examine changes in home sales prices and mortgages originations in Flint from 2012-2017, before and after the start of the crisis. The results indicate the water crisis had no discernable effect on the city's housing market, likely because the market was incredibly weak prior to the crisis. The severe lack of housing demand irrespective of the crisis potentially contributed to residents' perceptions of constrained mobility.

We highlight the use of a newer method-emerging hot spot analysis of space-time cubes from define... more We highlight the use of a newer method-emerging hot spot analysis of space-time cubes from defined locations-for examining the spread of housing vacancy in large, Ohio MSAs. Using this method, we discovered that many Ohio MSAs concurrently experienced spread, contraction, and vacancy stabilization in census tracts located adjacent to, or within close proximity of, one another. These results indicate that vacancy proliferation is not solely a matter of geographic determinism, whereby high vacancy in one tract predicts high vacancy in neighboring tracts in future years. We also found that vacancy spread at the tract level is associated with population dynamics at the neighborhood, city, and MSA levels. Our findings suggest that vacancy reduction initiatives should account for population trends at various geographic scales, not just physical conditions within a particular neighborhood or tract.

Journal of the American Planning Association,, 2021

The city of Flint (MI) should have right sized its water infrastructure as part of its response t... more The city of Flint (MI) should have right sized its water infrastructure as part of its response to its water crisis, which was a series of government failures that resulted in lead and other contaminants in the city's municipal water supply. I discuss why right sizing water systems is necessary in shrinking cities and outline a process for right sizing that uses hydraulic models to identify opportunities for downscaling or removing pipelines. With this information and public input, policymakers can make changes in land use designations that align with a city's master plan and acknowledge population change. In describing this process, my arguments serve as an example for other cities that are contemplating right sizing. I also argue that infrastructure considerations need to be part of land use decisions: if a city cannot reasonably decommission infrastructure because of system configuration, complete right sizing of vacant land might not be possible.

Community Development, 2017

This study considers the effects of location on farmers’ market success using the relocation of t... more This study considers the effects of location on farmers’ market success using the relocation of the farmers’ market in Flint, Michigan, as a case study. It examines whether relocating the market benefitted vendors;
whether the direct economic impact (DEI) of the market increased post-relocation; whether spending patterns vary by day of the week and season; and whether different estimates of DEI are obtained when accounting for seasonal variations in spending rates. The results indicate that the relocation increased vendors’ profits and satisfaction, the DEI of the new market was much higher than the old, there are
daily and seasonal differences in spending rates, and accounting for season resulted in an estimated DEI that was higher than would have been obtained otherwise. Overall, the study demonstrates that location matters – the market’s economic outcomes greatly improved
by moving from an isolated location on the outskirts of downtown to the city’s core.

We examine the extent to which the Flint Farmers' Market produces positive spillover effects on n... more We examine the extent to which the Flint Farmers' Market produces positive spillover effects on nearby businesses in downtown Flint, Michigan. We care about spillover spending in shrinking cities like Flint because farmers' markets may contribute to growth beyond their boundaries, and thus help to sustain their surrounding areas. We surveyed visitors of the Flint market to determine the percentage who spend downtown outside of the market, how much they spend, the demographic characteristics that predict spending, and the additional businesses that visitors would like to see in the downtown. We also interviewed downtown business owners and managers to capture their perspectives on the market, including whether its relocation in 2014 helped their businesses. This study differs from prior research on spillover effects because it uses a mixed-methods approach and it explores how the shrinking-city context affects market outcomes. Overall, we find that the Flint market has minimal impact on nearby businesses compared to markets in non-shrinking cities. We discuss the possible reasons why the Flint market under-performs, including potential visitor concerns about crime and a site design that does not promote walking to other destinations. We also discuss how these concerns (e.g., crime, walkability) stem from the shrinking-city context.

Since 2014, residents of Flint, Michigan have dealt with the effects of lead in their municipal s... more Since 2014, residents of Flint, Michigan have dealt with the effects of lead in their municipal system in a series of events known as the Flint water crisis. While several studies have examined the health effects of the crisis and changes in water lead levels over time, no study has considered whether the crisis has resulted or could result in residents leaving the city. To explore this question, we surveyed 405 Flint residents and used quantitative and qualitative methods, as well as exploratory spatial data analysis, to test five hypotheses about the water crisis and population dynamics. We found that population loss has not yet accelerated, but nearly half of residents are considering leaving. This consideration was true regardless of residents' demographics or where they lived in the city. We also discovered that perceptions of the water's safety and its health effects, more than actual water lead levels, predicted whether one is considering leaving. Overall, our results suggest that as water infrastructure quality deteriorates, population loss could accelerate, resulting in a recursive relationship whereby the city's population and its infrastructure continue to decline.

We document the level of trust that Flint, Michigan residents had in their local and state govern... more We document the level of trust that Flint, Michigan residents had in their local and state governments during the water crisis, a series of government failures that resulted in lead and other contaminants in the city's water system. We then compare residents' level of trust to that of nonresidents and use regression analyses to test whether a lack of trust in government predicts the extent to which Flint residents are considering leaving the city. Lastly, we use content analysis to explore measures to restore residents' trust. We find that trust in government is very low, a lack of trust predicts considering leaving, and it will be difficult for policymakers to restore trust. Distrust in government matters because it could hinder future planning and recovery efforts and contribute to additional population losses.

This article has three objectives. It first examines whether the latest version of SimCity can ac... more This article has three objectives. It first examines whether the latest version of SimCity can achieve learning objectives
related to systems thinking, problem solving, creativity, and regional understanding in the classroom. Second, it examines
whether the game influences student interest in planning. Third, it considers whether the game impacts students’ perception
of the discipline. Using instructor observation, students’ game creations, and surveys, we find that the game can achieve the
aforementioned learning objectives, increase student interest, and increase the perception of planning as being creative and
fun. The results have implications for instruction, student recruitment, and perceptions of the field.

Urban Forestry & Urban Greening, 2015

Legacy cities are increasingly including green land uses in their master plans. Therefore, it is ... more Legacy cities are increasingly including green land uses in their master plans. Therefore, it is important for city planners and policy makers to understand the factors that influence the attractiveness of green spaces. The purpose of this study was to empirically compare the perceived attractiveness of community gardens against that of vacant lots in each of four seasons, as well as to determine the features of community gardens that contribute to their attractiveness. The findings revealed that community gardens were perceived as more attractive than vacant lots and that the level of perceived attractiveness varied by season. More importantly, regardless of season or physical features, the level of maintenance of a green space was shown to have the largest influence on its attractiveness. The author concludes that, rather than create design guidelines for green land uses, city planners and policy makers may find it more effective to implement maintenance standards and proactive code enforcement.

Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 2010

... A call for stakeholder participation in evaluating the implementation of plans. Victoria Chan... more ... A call for stakeholder participation in evaluating the implementation of plans. Victoria Chaney Morckel. ... Access Statistics for this article. More articles in Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design from Pion Ltd, London Series data maintained by Neil Hammond (). Share. ...

Planning Theory & Practice, 2014

Journal of Transport & Health, 2016

Housing Policy Debate, 2013

Cities, 2017

This paper argues that the Flint water crisis stems from the city's inability to address the cons... more This paper argues that the Flint water crisis stems from the city's inability to address the consequences of largescale population loss, the Flint region's unwillingness to engage in regional planning, and a societal lack of care for infrastructure and shrinking cities.

Urban Geography, 2016

Abandoned properties are a significant problem facing legacy cities. Given historic and ongoing p... more Abandoned properties are a significant problem facing legacy cities. Given historic and ongoing population losses, many legacy cities turn to demolitions as one solution to their surplus property problems. Unfortunately, cities lack the resources needed to demolish all of the buildings that should arguably come down. Determining which properties should receive highest priority is a difficult task. Therefore, this paper presents an empirical method, based on basic suitability analysis, for prioritizing demolitions citywide. Using Youngstown, Ohio as an example, every vacant property in the city was assigned a demolition score based on four factors: property characteristics, vacancy, neighborhood potential, and crime. Properties with higher scores were deemed stronger candidates for timely demolition. In addition to prioritizing demolitions, the proposed method can facilitate the creation of hotspot maps of proposed demolitions, and a per se strategic demolition plan.

Community Development, 2015

While many researchers have examined strategies for revitalizing downtowns, few have done so in s... more While many researchers have examined strategies for revitalizing downtowns, few have done so in small or mid-sized legacy cities. This article adds to the literature by examining 1263 survey responses to statements about potential improvements to the downtown area of Flint, Michigan (USA). Descriptive statistics were used to identify perceptions of the most promising strategies for improvement. Those strategies were further analyzed using regression methods, to determine which characteristics of participants influenced responses. We found that while there are many improvements that might encourage people to come downtownsuch as reducing crime, having more to do, making parking easier, and having suitable housingsome traditional improvements advocated by planners (involving proximity, walkability, and bikeability) were not desired. Additionally, we found that responses appeared to be influenced by age, residency status, and perception of downtown, but not by education level, frequency of visiting, or whether or not one currently works downtown.

Community Development, 2014

Abandonment" is a term that has no agreed-upon definition in the housing literature. As a result,... more Abandonment" is a term that has no agreed-upon definition in the housing literature. As a result, different measures of housing abandonment have been used by researchers and practitioners. However, it is not clear whether the various measures capture the same construct. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to test whether three operational definitions of housing abandonment (tax delinquency as a proxy for abandonment, abandonment as identified by foot survey, and abandonment defined as "other vacant" by the census bureau) produce different results when used in prediction models. The study finds that the statistically significant predictors vary substantially from model to model. This finding is important to researchers and policy-makers since it indicates that proxies of housing abandonment are likely not equivalent, and that it may be necessary to conduct foot surveys in order to capture the intended construct.

Applied Geography, 2014

This study investigates whether the probability of housing abandonment is influenced by spatial f... more This study investigates whether the probability of housing abandonment is influenced by spatial factors. Using indicators of spatial autocorrelation, the study finds that housing abandonment and the predictors of abandonment exhibit statistically significant clustering. More importantly, by comparing a multilevel regression model that does not account for spatial relationships to one that does, the study finds that accounting for spatial relationships significantly improves the ability to predict abandoned housing. Additionally, the study shows that in some cases, conditions in surrounding neighborhoods have a greater influence on the probability of housing abandonment than do conditions in the neighborhood itself.