Kelly D Edmiston | University of Missouri Columbia (original) (raw)

Research Papers by Kelly D Edmiston

Economic Review, 2018

Participation in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), formerly known as the Food... more Participation in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), formerly known as the Food Stamp Program, has increased sharply over the past 20 years. Average monthly participation grew from 17.3 million people in 2001 to a peak of 47.6 million people in 2013. Although participation declined somewhat as the economy recovered from the Great Recession—dropping to 41.7 million people in November 2017—this decline failed to offset the program's rapid growth over the past 10 years. SNAP participation remains well above its pre-recession level of 25.9 million people, suggesting longer-term structural forces may be driving its trend.

Understanding the forces driving SNAP participation is important for several reasons. First, SNAP is an important safety net during economic downturns, as it allows unemployed individuals and others with reduced incomes to continue to purchase food. Second, SNAP is also a critical component of the package of public assistance programs available to support low-income individuals and families. Third, because eligibility for SNAP is almost exclusively based on income, SNAP participation is often considered an “automatic stabilizer,” rising when economic conditions deteriorate and falling when the economy is growing. But continued high levels of SNAP participation far into the recovery from the Great Recession suggest its efficacy as an automatic stabilizer may have changed, further motivating an analysis of its underlying forces.

In this article, I investigate the forces driving long-term patterns in SNAP participation as well as its cyclical variation. I find that three structural factors—legislative and programmatic changes, poverty, and a rising share of the working population not in the labor force—have made the largest contributions to SNAP participation. However, I also find that cyclical factors played a relatively large role in driving participation during the Great Recession. Together, the structural and cyclical factors I examine explain over 63 percent of the observed pattern in SNAP participation.

Economic Review, 2019

A lthough the U.S. labor market has seen strong growth in recent years, labor market conditions h... more A lthough the U.S. labor market has seen strong growth in recent years, labor market conditions have been weaker in low-and moderate-income (LMI) communities. In particular, residents in LMI communities are much less likely to work than residents in higher-income (non-LMI) communities. As of 2017, 35 percent of residents in LMI communities age 18-64 were not working compared with 24.9 percent in non-LMI communities. In this article, I use a formal text analysis of a unique set of survey comments to examine prominent obstacles to working, and compare the prevalence of these obstacles, or "employment barriers," in LMI and non-LMI communities. I find that lower educational attainment and lack of access to transportation and childcare are among the most prominent barriers to employment, and these problems are especially prevalent in LMI communities. Although public assistance, disabilities, and chronic health conditions are considerably more prevalent in LMI communities, they are not especially prominent barriers in the text analysis. Section I documents the difference in employment rates between LMI and non-LMI communities, showing persistent gaps that are increasing over time. Section II conducts a formal text analysis of survey comments to identify the most prominent barriers to employment. Section III compares statistics on the prevalence of these employment

SUFFOLK LAW REVIEW, 2015

Most discussions about student loans have centered on national trends, but student loan debt and ... more Most discussions about student loans have centered on national trends, but student loan debt and performance vary widely among borrowers and across geographic lines. In this article, we focus on the geographic variation of student loan debt and delinquency rates. The purpose of this analysis is twofold. First, a state-level analysis may shed light on consumers’ decisions to take out student loans and how to repay them. While there is limited information available at the level of the individual borrower, looking instead at state-level data may reflect the circumstances individuals face. Second, an understanding of how state-level support for higher education influences student loan borrowing and performance may inform student loan disbursement and repayment policies, as well as other higher education policy decisions.
We begin with an overview of the student loan market in the national context and present the variation across states in student loan debt and performance. We then report the results of the empirical analyses of potential factors associated with state-level variation in student loan debt and performance. Additionally, we discuss policy implications and the need for additional data and future research.

ECONOMIC REVIEW, 2007

Residential foreclosures in the United States have been rising very rapidly since 2006. In the se... more Residential foreclosures in the United States have been rising very rapidly since 2006. In the second quarter of 2007, the share of outstanding mortgages in some stage of foreclosure stood at 1.4 percent, near historical highs and up from less than 1 percent a year earlier. The number of mortgages entering the foreclosure process reached an all-time high in mid-2007, suggesting that the foreclosure surge is likely to get worse before it gets better. A perfect storm of events created the foreclosure surge. First, in recent years the share of subprime mortgage originations increased substantially. Second, foreclosure rates for adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) have increased considerably, especially for subprime ARMs. This increase is largely due to rising short-term interest rates and payment resets for many nontraditional mortgages. Finally, high loan-to-value originations in recent years, coupled with stagnant or falling home prices, have left many people with insufficient equity to sell or refinance their homes. Edmiston and Zalneraitis provide a detailed dissection of the current foreclosure surge. They conclude with a discussion of why the foreclosure situation is likely to get worse over the next one to two years and why it is likely to improve afterward.

ECONOMIC REVIEW, 2009

The foreclosure crisis that began in earnest in 2006 continues to shrink the once valuable assets... more The foreclosure crisis that began in earnest in 2006 continues to shrink the once valuable assets of homeowners, communities, and investors. In the last three years, more than three million households have lost their homes, and as many as 5 million more could lose their homes in the next three years. A striking feature of the crisis is the variation in its severity across both time and space. Initially, the foreclosure crisis hit low-income neighborhoods disproportionately. Foreclosures remain concentrated in these neighborhoods. But in recent months, the foreclosure epidemic has spread more deeply into higher-income neighborhoods. What accounts for the evolving pattern of foreclosure rates across neighborhoods, and where might concentrations of foreclosures occur in the future? Edmiston analyzes the seven states of the Tenth Federal Reserve District to help shed light on the foreclosure rate pattern and to explore where foreclosure trends are likely to head. His analysis confirms that foreclosure rates have been high in low-income neighborhoods--but only to the extent that subprime mortgages penetrated those neighborhoods. He also finds that the foreclosure crisis is seeping into higher-income neighborhoods--due primarily to unfavorable conditions in local economies and residential real estate markets.

ECONOMIC REVIEW, 2009

A long-debated issue in regional economics is whether people follow jobs or jobs follow people. T... more A long-debated issue in regional economics is whether people follow jobs or jobs follow people. That is, do people move to where jobs are available or do employers locate their facilities where potential employees reside? If people follow jobs, an appropriate economic development policy would be to concentrate on luring employers, especially large employers. This view reflects many traditional state and local economic development policies. If, on the other hand, jobs follow people, a better strategy would be to focus on luring skilled people by creating an environment that is an attractive place to live. Increasingly, state and local economic development agents are following the latter policy. In particular, many state and local governments are seeking to attract a power cohort of young, childless, college-educated residents. These people are not only attractive to employers but are typically more responsive to the quality of the urban milieu, which can be influenced by policy. Because singles are generally more mobile than families with school-aged children, much of the economic development effort is focused on that subgroup, but the effort also focuses on childless couples. In the Tenth District, most cities are relatively weak in attracting this power cohort. Specifically, the district cities as a whole attract fewer migrants from this cohort than would be expected given their populations, wage levels, and housing costs. This fact raises an important question: Why? Edmiston argues that the relative performance of migration across Tenth District cities and elsewhere in the United States is largely a function of two sets of factors. The district does well based on the first set of factors: unemployment, wages, and taxes. The District is relatively weak based on the second set of factors: cultural and recreational amenities, intellectual capital, topography, and crime.

ECONOMIC REVIEW, 2011

The payday loan, or more generally, the deferred deposit loan, is among the most contentious form... more The payday loan, or more generally, the deferred deposit loan, is among the most contentious forms of credit. It typically signifies a small-dollar, short-term, unsecured loan to a high-risk borrower, often resulting in an effective annual percentage rate of 390 percent―a rate well in excess of usury limits set by many states. Consumer advocates argue that payday loans take advantage of vulnerable, uninformed borrowers and often create “debt spirals.” Debt spirals arise from repeated payday borrowing, using new loans to pay off old ones, and often paying many times the original loan amount in interest. In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, many policymakers are considering strengthening consumer protections on payday lending. Yet few studies have focused on any unintended consequences of restricting such lending. Thus, the question arises: Could restrictions on payday lending have adverse effects? I examine payday lending and provides new empirical evidence on how restrictions could affect consumers. My analysis shows that restrictions could deny some consumers access to credit, limit their ability to maintain formal credit standing, or force them to seek more costly credit alternatives. Thus, any policy decisions to restrict payday lending should weigh these potential costs against the potential benefits.

ECONOMIC REVIEW, 2012

In the wake of the recent mortgage crisis, interest in neighborhood stabilization and redevelopme... more In the wake of the recent mortgage crisis, interest in neighborhood stabilization and redevelopment has shown renewed vigor. Decaying neighborhoods have been part of the urban landscape for decades. Still, their problems recently have been exacerbated by foreclosed and vacated properties, especially in low- and moderate-income (LMI) areas.
Efforts to revitalize troubled neighborhoods have depended largely on investments in housing. Typically, these investments have involved the rehabilitation of single-family, owner-occupied housing, but some have involved new construction or the rehabilitation of rental housing. Much of the funding for these investments comes from foundations, private donations, or government sources, such as Community Development Block Grants. Generally, these funds are channeled into projects through community development corporations (CDCs) or other nonprofit entities.

While the impetus for these investments is partly to provide suitable and affordable housing, neighborhood revitalization is equally important for most CDCs. Despite considerable interest and experience in affordable housing investments in LMI neighborhoods, there is little research to inform funders, developers, and others about the spillover effects on surrounding areas.

This article explores the impact of CDC housing investments in LMI neighborhoods on neighborhood quality by estimating the effect of that investment on the value of nearby houses. Property values are a good measure of overall neighborhood impacts because they show the willingness of homeowners (or investors) to pay for neighborhood attributes. This article provides evidence that CDC housing investments in LMI neighborhoods generally increase the values of nearby homes, which in turn suggests that the investments engender quality improvements in the neighborhood. Section I examines the motivation behind housing investments in LMI communities and highlights potential neighborhood spillovers. Section II discusses the data used in the analysis and the analytical method. Section III provides results from the analysis.

ECONOMIC REVIEW, 2013

he worst recession in U.S. postwar history, starting in late 2007, hit low- and moderate-income (... more he worst recession in U.S. postwar history, starting in late 2007, hit low- and moderate-income (LMI) individuals and families especially hard. Since the country’s anemic recovery began in mid-2009, the LMI population has continued to fare worse than higher-income groups. Significant numbers of formerly middle- and higher-income families have newly entered the ranks of the LMI population, and a growing number of those seeking public aid for food or housing are requesting it for the first time. It is not just that the LMI population has been hit harder than the population as a whole, but they have also faced unique, adverse conditions on several fronts. This article evaluates the economic circumstances of the LMI population over the course of the recession and recovery, making use of a specialized survey.

ECONOMIC REVIEW, 2020

Although the U.S. labor market has seen strong growth in recent years, labor market conditions ha... more Although the U.S. labor market has seen strong growth in recent years, labor market conditions have been weaker in low-and moderate-income (LMI) communities. In particular, residents in LMI communities are much less likely to work than residents in higher-income (non-LMI) communities. As of 2017, 35 percent of residents in LMI communities age 18-64 were not working compared with 24.9 percent in non-LMI communities.

In this article, I use a formal text analysis of a unique set of survey comments to examine prominent obstacles to working, and compare the prevalence of these obstacles, or "employment barriers," in LMI and non-LMI communities. I find that lower educational attainment and lack of access to transportation and childcare are among the most prominent barriers to employment, and these problems are especially prevalent in LMI communities. Although public assistance, disabilities, and chronic health conditions are considerably more prevalent in LMI communities, they are not especially prominent barriers in the text analysis.

Section I documents the difference in employment rates between LMI and non-LMI communities, showing persistent gaps that are increasing over time. Section II conducts a formal text analysis of survey comments to identify the most prominent barriers to employment. Section III compares statistics on the prevalence of these employment

ECONOMIC REVIEW, 2016

Owner-occupied housing has become more affordable in most markets since the housing crisis. In co... more Owner-occupied housing has become more affordable in most markets since the housing crisis. In contrast, many renters and their advocates have reported that rental housing has become increasingly unaffordable. National trends seem to support these reports: from 2010 to 2015, growth in median rent outpaced inflation by 0.6 percent per year. Over the same period, rent growth outpaced income growth by 1 percentage point per year. However, national data on rent affordability may mask important details about local markets. Affordability—and changes in affordability—vary widely across metropolitan statistical areas. Kelly Edmiston examines patterns in rent affordability for both low- and middle-income households and across metropolitan areas. He finds that only a few areas have seen significant changes in affordability over the past five years. These areas typically have small populations and an institution or industry that in some sense dominates the area.

ECONOMIC REVIEW, 2018

Participation in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) has increased sharply over ... more Participation in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) has increased sharply over the past 20 years. Average monthly participation grew from 17.3 million people in 2001 to a peak of 47.6 million people in 2013. Although participation declined somewhat as the economy recovered from the Great Recession, SNAP participation remains well above its pre-recession level. Kelly D. Edmiston investigates the forces driving long-term patterns in SNAP participation as well as its cyclical variation. He finds that three structural factors—legislative and programmatic changes, poverty, and a rising share of the working population not in the labor force—have made the largest contributions to SNAP participation over time. His results suggest growth in SNAP participation is unlikely to unwind in the near future.

THE ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMY OF POLITICAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCE, 2017

As college costs increase and more students fund their education through borrowing, debt load and... more As college costs increase and more students fund their education through borrowing, debt load and delinquency rates have become significant problems. this article discusses the impacts of the federal student loan repayment relief programs that are available. the implications of relief plans on borrowers' costs and the federal budget vary by plan and for different loan amounts and income levels, making it challenging for policy-makers to design programs that adequately balance risks between borrowers and taxpayers. existing programs are also complicated, making it difficult for borrowers to make informed decisions on repayment programs. We examine how the various programs work in practice and consider their likely outcomes over a set of income-debt-program scenarios, bringing clarity to the repayment environment. We find that lower-income borrowers and borrowers who will have significant remaining balances forgiven at the end of the required repayment period are generally more likely to benefit from loan relief programs, but participation of these borrowers can be very costly.

NATIONAL TAX JOURNAL, 2001

The National Tax Association's project on the taxation of telecommunications and electronic com... more The National Tax Association's project on the taxation of telecommunications and
electronic commerce recommended that each state employing a sales and use tax
consider adopting a single statewide rate rather than continue with the number of rates currently in use. This recommendation was made in response to the criticism that current state sales and use tax schemes are too complex to expect multi-state vendors to collect and remit the sales tax in thousands of state and local jurisdictions. This article reviews the history of single rate suggestions and the problems for state and local governments that are expected to develop under such a proposal. The feasibility of adopting such a policy in five states, California, Georgia, New York, Tennessee, and Utah, is analyzed. The results of the examination reveal that the proposal is administratively feasible and simplification could be achieved. In some states the adoption if a single rate would result in modest tax revenue shifts, but in others the revenue readjustments would be significant. All states would face sizable political obstacles to a single rate proposal. We conclude that states should consider using a single rate for use tax collections and continue the use of multiple rates for in-state sales tax collections. Regardless, states must actively pursue polices to simplify their current tax processes at every opportunity.

PUBLIC FINANCE REVIEW, 2000

Decentralized systems of government finance give rise to fiscal disparities due to interjurisdict... more Decentralized systems of government finance give rise to fiscal disparities due to interjurisdictional variations in tax bases and expenditure needs. Intergovernmental aid is used to address such disparities. This article explores changes in local tax capacity and intergovernmental aid resulting from urban shopping malls that extract retail sales and sales tax revenue away from surrounding areas, especially rural counties. A model is developed and estimated to determine the impact of urban malls on local government sales tax bases, controlling for sales tax rate differentials and other factors. The results reveal a 15.9% decline in the sales tax base for counties in close proximity to two new malls. The analysis is extended to examine impacts of changing local tax capacity on state education aid. Based on the program considered here, less than 20% of the loss in own-source revenue is recovered through increased aid.

Economic Bulletin (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City), 2019

Since 2011, 74 hospitals have closed in rural counties isolated from larger towns (towns of 10,00... more Since 2011, 74 hospitals have closed in rural counties isolated from larger towns (towns of 10,000 residents or more). I evaluate the implications for employment and wage growth in these counties and find that hospital closures are associated with substantially lower annual growth in county employment and total wages compared to similar counties without hospital closures. Smaller counties with a greater share of hospital employment in total employment are likely to see the most severe economic effects.

Papers by Kelly D Edmiston

Social Science Research Network, 2003

Social Science Research Network, 2018

The American Review of Public Administration, Mar 1, 2003

This article presents a self-contained yet comprehensive discussion of the prospects of state and... more This article presents a self-contained yet comprehensive discussion of the prospects of state and local electronic government (e-government), the status of its development across the states and local communities, and the difficult challenges faced in making it a reality. In taking a very broad approach to e-government, the hope is that the analysis helps to bring perspective to the issue and to synthesize a literature that is increasingly becoming a series of disconnected case studies. Although the prospects at all levels of government for improving public services, reducing costs, and enhancing the democratic process are high, e-government has been penetrating state government much more rapidly than local government. The most salient obstacles to full penetration of e-government seem to be proper marketing, privacy issues, equity, and financing.

Research working paper, 2017

Economic Review, 2018

Participation in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), formerly known as the Food... more Participation in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), formerly known as the Food Stamp Program, has increased sharply over the past 20 years. Average monthly participation grew from 17.3 million people in 2001 to a peak of 47.6 million people in 2013. Although participation declined somewhat as the economy recovered from the Great Recession—dropping to 41.7 million people in November 2017—this decline failed to offset the program's rapid growth over the past 10 years. SNAP participation remains well above its pre-recession level of 25.9 million people, suggesting longer-term structural forces may be driving its trend.

Understanding the forces driving SNAP participation is important for several reasons. First, SNAP is an important safety net during economic downturns, as it allows unemployed individuals and others with reduced incomes to continue to purchase food. Second, SNAP is also a critical component of the package of public assistance programs available to support low-income individuals and families. Third, because eligibility for SNAP is almost exclusively based on income, SNAP participation is often considered an “automatic stabilizer,” rising when economic conditions deteriorate and falling when the economy is growing. But continued high levels of SNAP participation far into the recovery from the Great Recession suggest its efficacy as an automatic stabilizer may have changed, further motivating an analysis of its underlying forces.

In this article, I investigate the forces driving long-term patterns in SNAP participation as well as its cyclical variation. I find that three structural factors—legislative and programmatic changes, poverty, and a rising share of the working population not in the labor force—have made the largest contributions to SNAP participation. However, I also find that cyclical factors played a relatively large role in driving participation during the Great Recession. Together, the structural and cyclical factors I examine explain over 63 percent of the observed pattern in SNAP participation.

Economic Review, 2019

A lthough the U.S. labor market has seen strong growth in recent years, labor market conditions h... more A lthough the U.S. labor market has seen strong growth in recent years, labor market conditions have been weaker in low-and moderate-income (LMI) communities. In particular, residents in LMI communities are much less likely to work than residents in higher-income (non-LMI) communities. As of 2017, 35 percent of residents in LMI communities age 18-64 were not working compared with 24.9 percent in non-LMI communities. In this article, I use a formal text analysis of a unique set of survey comments to examine prominent obstacles to working, and compare the prevalence of these obstacles, or "employment barriers," in LMI and non-LMI communities. I find that lower educational attainment and lack of access to transportation and childcare are among the most prominent barriers to employment, and these problems are especially prevalent in LMI communities. Although public assistance, disabilities, and chronic health conditions are considerably more prevalent in LMI communities, they are not especially prominent barriers in the text analysis. Section I documents the difference in employment rates between LMI and non-LMI communities, showing persistent gaps that are increasing over time. Section II conducts a formal text analysis of survey comments to identify the most prominent barriers to employment. Section III compares statistics on the prevalence of these employment

SUFFOLK LAW REVIEW, 2015

Most discussions about student loans have centered on national trends, but student loan debt and ... more Most discussions about student loans have centered on national trends, but student loan debt and performance vary widely among borrowers and across geographic lines. In this article, we focus on the geographic variation of student loan debt and delinquency rates. The purpose of this analysis is twofold. First, a state-level analysis may shed light on consumers’ decisions to take out student loans and how to repay them. While there is limited information available at the level of the individual borrower, looking instead at state-level data may reflect the circumstances individuals face. Second, an understanding of how state-level support for higher education influences student loan borrowing and performance may inform student loan disbursement and repayment policies, as well as other higher education policy decisions.
We begin with an overview of the student loan market in the national context and present the variation across states in student loan debt and performance. We then report the results of the empirical analyses of potential factors associated with state-level variation in student loan debt and performance. Additionally, we discuss policy implications and the need for additional data and future research.

ECONOMIC REVIEW, 2007

Residential foreclosures in the United States have been rising very rapidly since 2006. In the se... more Residential foreclosures in the United States have been rising very rapidly since 2006. In the second quarter of 2007, the share of outstanding mortgages in some stage of foreclosure stood at 1.4 percent, near historical highs and up from less than 1 percent a year earlier. The number of mortgages entering the foreclosure process reached an all-time high in mid-2007, suggesting that the foreclosure surge is likely to get worse before it gets better. A perfect storm of events created the foreclosure surge. First, in recent years the share of subprime mortgage originations increased substantially. Second, foreclosure rates for adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) have increased considerably, especially for subprime ARMs. This increase is largely due to rising short-term interest rates and payment resets for many nontraditional mortgages. Finally, high loan-to-value originations in recent years, coupled with stagnant or falling home prices, have left many people with insufficient equity to sell or refinance their homes. Edmiston and Zalneraitis provide a detailed dissection of the current foreclosure surge. They conclude with a discussion of why the foreclosure situation is likely to get worse over the next one to two years and why it is likely to improve afterward.

ECONOMIC REVIEW, 2009

The foreclosure crisis that began in earnest in 2006 continues to shrink the once valuable assets... more The foreclosure crisis that began in earnest in 2006 continues to shrink the once valuable assets of homeowners, communities, and investors. In the last three years, more than three million households have lost their homes, and as many as 5 million more could lose their homes in the next three years. A striking feature of the crisis is the variation in its severity across both time and space. Initially, the foreclosure crisis hit low-income neighborhoods disproportionately. Foreclosures remain concentrated in these neighborhoods. But in recent months, the foreclosure epidemic has spread more deeply into higher-income neighborhoods. What accounts for the evolving pattern of foreclosure rates across neighborhoods, and where might concentrations of foreclosures occur in the future? Edmiston analyzes the seven states of the Tenth Federal Reserve District to help shed light on the foreclosure rate pattern and to explore where foreclosure trends are likely to head. His analysis confirms that foreclosure rates have been high in low-income neighborhoods--but only to the extent that subprime mortgages penetrated those neighborhoods. He also finds that the foreclosure crisis is seeping into higher-income neighborhoods--due primarily to unfavorable conditions in local economies and residential real estate markets.

ECONOMIC REVIEW, 2009

A long-debated issue in regional economics is whether people follow jobs or jobs follow people. T... more A long-debated issue in regional economics is whether people follow jobs or jobs follow people. That is, do people move to where jobs are available or do employers locate their facilities where potential employees reside? If people follow jobs, an appropriate economic development policy would be to concentrate on luring employers, especially large employers. This view reflects many traditional state and local economic development policies. If, on the other hand, jobs follow people, a better strategy would be to focus on luring skilled people by creating an environment that is an attractive place to live. Increasingly, state and local economic development agents are following the latter policy. In particular, many state and local governments are seeking to attract a power cohort of young, childless, college-educated residents. These people are not only attractive to employers but are typically more responsive to the quality of the urban milieu, which can be influenced by policy. Because singles are generally more mobile than families with school-aged children, much of the economic development effort is focused on that subgroup, but the effort also focuses on childless couples. In the Tenth District, most cities are relatively weak in attracting this power cohort. Specifically, the district cities as a whole attract fewer migrants from this cohort than would be expected given their populations, wage levels, and housing costs. This fact raises an important question: Why? Edmiston argues that the relative performance of migration across Tenth District cities and elsewhere in the United States is largely a function of two sets of factors. The district does well based on the first set of factors: unemployment, wages, and taxes. The District is relatively weak based on the second set of factors: cultural and recreational amenities, intellectual capital, topography, and crime.

ECONOMIC REVIEW, 2011

The payday loan, or more generally, the deferred deposit loan, is among the most contentious form... more The payday loan, or more generally, the deferred deposit loan, is among the most contentious forms of credit. It typically signifies a small-dollar, short-term, unsecured loan to a high-risk borrower, often resulting in an effective annual percentage rate of 390 percent―a rate well in excess of usury limits set by many states. Consumer advocates argue that payday loans take advantage of vulnerable, uninformed borrowers and often create “debt spirals.” Debt spirals arise from repeated payday borrowing, using new loans to pay off old ones, and often paying many times the original loan amount in interest. In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, many policymakers are considering strengthening consumer protections on payday lending. Yet few studies have focused on any unintended consequences of restricting such lending. Thus, the question arises: Could restrictions on payday lending have adverse effects? I examine payday lending and provides new empirical evidence on how restrictions could affect consumers. My analysis shows that restrictions could deny some consumers access to credit, limit their ability to maintain formal credit standing, or force them to seek more costly credit alternatives. Thus, any policy decisions to restrict payday lending should weigh these potential costs against the potential benefits.

ECONOMIC REVIEW, 2012

In the wake of the recent mortgage crisis, interest in neighborhood stabilization and redevelopme... more In the wake of the recent mortgage crisis, interest in neighborhood stabilization and redevelopment has shown renewed vigor. Decaying neighborhoods have been part of the urban landscape for decades. Still, their problems recently have been exacerbated by foreclosed and vacated properties, especially in low- and moderate-income (LMI) areas.
Efforts to revitalize troubled neighborhoods have depended largely on investments in housing. Typically, these investments have involved the rehabilitation of single-family, owner-occupied housing, but some have involved new construction or the rehabilitation of rental housing. Much of the funding for these investments comes from foundations, private donations, or government sources, such as Community Development Block Grants. Generally, these funds are channeled into projects through community development corporations (CDCs) or other nonprofit entities.

While the impetus for these investments is partly to provide suitable and affordable housing, neighborhood revitalization is equally important for most CDCs. Despite considerable interest and experience in affordable housing investments in LMI neighborhoods, there is little research to inform funders, developers, and others about the spillover effects on surrounding areas.

This article explores the impact of CDC housing investments in LMI neighborhoods on neighborhood quality by estimating the effect of that investment on the value of nearby houses. Property values are a good measure of overall neighborhood impacts because they show the willingness of homeowners (or investors) to pay for neighborhood attributes. This article provides evidence that CDC housing investments in LMI neighborhoods generally increase the values of nearby homes, which in turn suggests that the investments engender quality improvements in the neighborhood. Section I examines the motivation behind housing investments in LMI communities and highlights potential neighborhood spillovers. Section II discusses the data used in the analysis and the analytical method. Section III provides results from the analysis.

ECONOMIC REVIEW, 2013

he worst recession in U.S. postwar history, starting in late 2007, hit low- and moderate-income (... more he worst recession in U.S. postwar history, starting in late 2007, hit low- and moderate-income (LMI) individuals and families especially hard. Since the country’s anemic recovery began in mid-2009, the LMI population has continued to fare worse than higher-income groups. Significant numbers of formerly middle- and higher-income families have newly entered the ranks of the LMI population, and a growing number of those seeking public aid for food or housing are requesting it for the first time. It is not just that the LMI population has been hit harder than the population as a whole, but they have also faced unique, adverse conditions on several fronts. This article evaluates the economic circumstances of the LMI population over the course of the recession and recovery, making use of a specialized survey.

ECONOMIC REVIEW, 2020

Although the U.S. labor market has seen strong growth in recent years, labor market conditions ha... more Although the U.S. labor market has seen strong growth in recent years, labor market conditions have been weaker in low-and moderate-income (LMI) communities. In particular, residents in LMI communities are much less likely to work than residents in higher-income (non-LMI) communities. As of 2017, 35 percent of residents in LMI communities age 18-64 were not working compared with 24.9 percent in non-LMI communities.

In this article, I use a formal text analysis of a unique set of survey comments to examine prominent obstacles to working, and compare the prevalence of these obstacles, or "employment barriers," in LMI and non-LMI communities. I find that lower educational attainment and lack of access to transportation and childcare are among the most prominent barriers to employment, and these problems are especially prevalent in LMI communities. Although public assistance, disabilities, and chronic health conditions are considerably more prevalent in LMI communities, they are not especially prominent barriers in the text analysis.

Section I documents the difference in employment rates between LMI and non-LMI communities, showing persistent gaps that are increasing over time. Section II conducts a formal text analysis of survey comments to identify the most prominent barriers to employment. Section III compares statistics on the prevalence of these employment

ECONOMIC REVIEW, 2016

Owner-occupied housing has become more affordable in most markets since the housing crisis. In co... more Owner-occupied housing has become more affordable in most markets since the housing crisis. In contrast, many renters and their advocates have reported that rental housing has become increasingly unaffordable. National trends seem to support these reports: from 2010 to 2015, growth in median rent outpaced inflation by 0.6 percent per year. Over the same period, rent growth outpaced income growth by 1 percentage point per year. However, national data on rent affordability may mask important details about local markets. Affordability—and changes in affordability—vary widely across metropolitan statistical areas. Kelly Edmiston examines patterns in rent affordability for both low- and middle-income households and across metropolitan areas. He finds that only a few areas have seen significant changes in affordability over the past five years. These areas typically have small populations and an institution or industry that in some sense dominates the area.

ECONOMIC REVIEW, 2018

Participation in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) has increased sharply over ... more Participation in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) has increased sharply over the past 20 years. Average monthly participation grew from 17.3 million people in 2001 to a peak of 47.6 million people in 2013. Although participation declined somewhat as the economy recovered from the Great Recession, SNAP participation remains well above its pre-recession level. Kelly D. Edmiston investigates the forces driving long-term patterns in SNAP participation as well as its cyclical variation. He finds that three structural factors—legislative and programmatic changes, poverty, and a rising share of the working population not in the labor force—have made the largest contributions to SNAP participation over time. His results suggest growth in SNAP participation is unlikely to unwind in the near future.

THE ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMY OF POLITICAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCE, 2017

As college costs increase and more students fund their education through borrowing, debt load and... more As college costs increase and more students fund their education through borrowing, debt load and delinquency rates have become significant problems. this article discusses the impacts of the federal student loan repayment relief programs that are available. the implications of relief plans on borrowers' costs and the federal budget vary by plan and for different loan amounts and income levels, making it challenging for policy-makers to design programs that adequately balance risks between borrowers and taxpayers. existing programs are also complicated, making it difficult for borrowers to make informed decisions on repayment programs. We examine how the various programs work in practice and consider their likely outcomes over a set of income-debt-program scenarios, bringing clarity to the repayment environment. We find that lower-income borrowers and borrowers who will have significant remaining balances forgiven at the end of the required repayment period are generally more likely to benefit from loan relief programs, but participation of these borrowers can be very costly.

NATIONAL TAX JOURNAL, 2001

The National Tax Association's project on the taxation of telecommunications and electronic com... more The National Tax Association's project on the taxation of telecommunications and
electronic commerce recommended that each state employing a sales and use tax
consider adopting a single statewide rate rather than continue with the number of rates currently in use. This recommendation was made in response to the criticism that current state sales and use tax schemes are too complex to expect multi-state vendors to collect and remit the sales tax in thousands of state and local jurisdictions. This article reviews the history of single rate suggestions and the problems for state and local governments that are expected to develop under such a proposal. The feasibility of adopting such a policy in five states, California, Georgia, New York, Tennessee, and Utah, is analyzed. The results of the examination reveal that the proposal is administratively feasible and simplification could be achieved. In some states the adoption if a single rate would result in modest tax revenue shifts, but in others the revenue readjustments would be significant. All states would face sizable political obstacles to a single rate proposal. We conclude that states should consider using a single rate for use tax collections and continue the use of multiple rates for in-state sales tax collections. Regardless, states must actively pursue polices to simplify their current tax processes at every opportunity.

PUBLIC FINANCE REVIEW, 2000

Decentralized systems of government finance give rise to fiscal disparities due to interjurisdict... more Decentralized systems of government finance give rise to fiscal disparities due to interjurisdictional variations in tax bases and expenditure needs. Intergovernmental aid is used to address such disparities. This article explores changes in local tax capacity and intergovernmental aid resulting from urban shopping malls that extract retail sales and sales tax revenue away from surrounding areas, especially rural counties. A model is developed and estimated to determine the impact of urban malls on local government sales tax bases, controlling for sales tax rate differentials and other factors. The results reveal a 15.9% decline in the sales tax base for counties in close proximity to two new malls. The analysis is extended to examine impacts of changing local tax capacity on state education aid. Based on the program considered here, less than 20% of the loss in own-source revenue is recovered through increased aid.

Economic Bulletin (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City), 2019

Since 2011, 74 hospitals have closed in rural counties isolated from larger towns (towns of 10,00... more Since 2011, 74 hospitals have closed in rural counties isolated from larger towns (towns of 10,000 residents or more). I evaluate the implications for employment and wage growth in these counties and find that hospital closures are associated with substantially lower annual growth in county employment and total wages compared to similar counties without hospital closures. Smaller counties with a greater share of hospital employment in total employment are likely to see the most severe economic effects.

Social Science Research Network, 2003

Social Science Research Network, 2018

The American Review of Public Administration, Mar 1, 2003

This article presents a self-contained yet comprehensive discussion of the prospects of state and... more This article presents a self-contained yet comprehensive discussion of the prospects of state and local electronic government (e-government), the status of its development across the states and local communities, and the difficult challenges faced in making it a reality. In taking a very broad approach to e-government, the hope is that the analysis helps to bring perspective to the issue and to synthesize a literature that is increasingly becoming a series of disconnected case studies. Although the prospects at all levels of government for improving public services, reducing costs, and enhancing the democratic process are high, e-government has been penetrating state government much more rapidly than local government. The most salient obstacles to full penetration of e-government seem to be proper marketing, privacy issues, equity, and financing.

Research working paper, 2017

Journal of Regional Science, Feb 1, 2006

Public Finance Review, Nov 7, 2011

There is a substantial literature that assesses the distributional impact of the mortgage interes... more There is a substantial literature that assesses the distributional impact of the mortgage interest and state and local property tax deductions and the disparate incentives for buying a home across income groups, but virtually no work exists that evaluates the secondary effect on the provision of local public services. In this paper we evaluate the impact that disparate homeowner tax subsidies have on the provision of local public services, specifically, schools. Performing a path analysis, we find that a 100 percent increase in the average homeowner tax subsidy yields a ten percent increase in local public school spending per student.

Public Finance Review, 2007

Social Science Research Network, 2018

Public administration and development, 2002

Social Science Research Network, 2012

Journal of Regional Science, May 1, 2004

Social Science Research Network, 2005

Social Science Research Network, 2004

International Tax and Public Finance, Sep 1, 2004

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Jun 1, 2001

The nexus of race and insurance is one of four regulatory priorities for the National Association... more The nexus of race and insurance is one of four regulatory priorities for the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) in 2022 and has been a key initiative since 2020. As part of this initiative, the Health Innovations Working Group was charged to “evaluate mechanisms to resolve disparities through improving access to care, including . . . the use of alternative payment models and value-based payments and their impact on exacerbating or ameliorating disparities and social determinants of health.” This report is an effort to assist the HIWG in fulfilling this directive.

Econometric Reviews, 2013

The worst recession in U.S. postwar history, starting in late 2007, confronted low- and moderate-... more The worst recession in U.S. postwar history, starting in late 2007, confronted low- and moderate-income families and individuals with distinct challenges. To address the severe lack of data on the "LMI," population, the Kansas City Fed launched its LMI Survey in 2009. ; Distributed to more than 700 organizations that provide services to the LMI population, the Survey elicits a wealth of qualitative reporting. It also produces quantitative data, including several quarterly indexes that track changes in LMI financial conditions over time. ; Edmiston summarizes insights from the Survey on how the recession and anemic recovery have affected job availability for the LMI population, affordable housing, access to credit and demand for basic services. The findings are useful for policymakers seeking to promote financial success among the 30 million U.S. families classified as LMI.

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Apr 1, 2001

Social Science Research Network, 2016

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2005