Vinicios Sant'Anna | Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) (original) (raw)
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Papers by Vinicios Sant'Anna
MIT Center for Real Estate Research Paper, 2024
Is ethnic segregation in Europe driven by native flight or immigrant self-isolation? If the forme... more Is ethnic segregation in Europe driven by native flight or immigrant self-isolation? If the former, which natives avoid immigrants? Which immigrants? What is the geographic scope of homophilic residential preferences? We answer these questions using a matched panel containing the universe of individuals and properties in Denmark from 1987 through 2017. We take advantage of the quasi-random nature of refugee placements and simulated exogenous Markov-chain predictions to generate experimental variation regarding local immigrant arrivals. We find strong evidence of native flight, even at the building level. Flight is stronger among the old and a reaction to the arrival of low-income immigrants. As neighborhoods become more immigrantdense, housing prices decline, and subsequent move-ins are more likely to be other immigrants or young, low-income native citizens without children.
International Economics, 2024
We study the effect of the bilateral trade integration with China on wage inequality in Brazil. P... more We study the effect of the bilateral trade integration with China on wage inequality in Brazil. Previous studies have documented the contribution of trade opening to the decline in inequality since the 1990s, driven primarily by cross-firm pay differences. We find a sharper reduction in wage inequality over the 2000s, parallel to China’s accession to the WTO. Our analysis of the China shock suggests that some firms are harmed by import competition, especially those in the High-Tech Manufacturing sector, while others profit from increased exports and cheaper inputs. We rationalize these patterns by extending the theoretical framework of Helpman et al. (2017) to include sector heterogeneity in trade exposure and firm-level selection into imports. Our model indicates that the rise of China led to a reduction in cross-firm wage inequality in Brazil by about 5%.
O objetivo do estudo foi estimar os impactos do tempo dos procedimentos portuários sobre as expor... more O objetivo do estudo foi estimar os impactos do tempo dos procedimentos portuários sobre as exportações brasileiras. O trabalho utiliza uma base de dados inovadora com dados de exportações municipais, com distinção do porto utilizado, país de destino e com produtos desagregados de acordo com o sistema harmonizado em 4 dígitos para o período de 2010 a 2012. Uma equação gravitacional em diferenças foi estimada pelo método de efeitos fixos utilizando as exportações municipais relativas (volume e número de setores exportadores) contra medidas de tempo em horas dos procedimentos portuários e outras variáveis de controle. Os resultados da análise descritiva indicam a presença de um gargalo no escoamento da produção brasileira para o mercado internacional, e apontam para a necessidade de investimentos que ampliem a capacidade portuária, reduzindo as ineficiências que geram elevadas porcentagens do tempo de inoperância nos portos brasileiros. Os resultados das estimações indicam que, de modo geral, cada hora adicional na condução dos procedimentos portuários representam custos para os exportadores brasileiros, que podem estar se refletindo em perda da competitividade dos produtos nacionais no exterior. Segundo as estimações realizadas, cada hora adicional de estadia no porto mediano é equivalente a uma redução do volume total das exportações municipais em cerca de 1%. Além disso, uma redução de 10% no tempo de estadia relativo do navio no porto pode aumentar o número de categorias de produtos exportados entre 0,3% e 0,9%.
Economic Modelling, 2023
This paper studies how and why the bilateral trades in manufacturing and services differ in their... more This paper studies how and why the bilateral trades in manufacturing and services differ in their response to changes in the determinants—both theoretically and empirically. We build a unified theoretical framework that incorporates a demand bias toward services and a difference in the degree of national product differentiation between the two product groups. Estimation results support the theoretical predictions. The empirical model includes, among others, two non-standard trade-cost variables: a measure of internet penetration and virtual proximity (the number of bilateral hyperlinks). An important finding is that virtual proximity – thus far ignored in most gravity models – is a strong predictor of aggregate trade in both services and manufacturing. Also, physical distance is an important determinant of bilateral trade in manufacturing and services, even while controlling for virtual proximity.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2021
Housing is a crucial channel through which migration affects the local economy and wealth distrib... more Housing is a crucial channel through which migration affects the local economy and wealth distribution. However, most of what we know about the effects of migration on housing is from studies focused on the inflows of immigrants. This paper quantifies the impact of out-migration on local housing empirically. We study one of the largest ethnically motivated migration shocks in US history, the United States' Mexican repatriation of the 1930s. Using a novel automated matching technique to link houses across the 1930 and 1940 Censuses, we show that repatriating Mexicans during the Great Depression significantly affected housing in various dimensions. Employing an instrumental variable approach, we show that Mexican-occupied houses experienced a disproportionately large devaluation of their house values and rents in cities more exposed to the repatriation. Critically, the repatriation mattered for aggregate outcomes in US cities: it decreased building permit growth rates, the median house value growth, and the median rent growth at the city level. Our results suggest that repatriations have a long-lasting impact, leaving a footprint on the local economy.
This paper estimates the impact of vessels turnaround time on Brazilian exports. To achieve this ... more This paper estimates the impact of vessels turnaround time on Brazilian exports. To achieve this goal, we use a difference gravity equation in order to explore the time variation in port procedures for 16 Brazilian ports. This paper uses a unique database with local exports, taking into account the port used and products aggregated at the four‐digit Harmonized System (HS) level for the period between 2010 and 2012. The estimation results indicate that, in general, each additional hour of delay in port procedures represents costs to Brazilian exporters, which may lead to loss of competitiveness of domestic products abroad. According to the estimates, each additional relative hour of delay in the average port is equivalent to a reduction in relative local exports of ~2%. Moreover, a 10% relative reduction in vessel turnaround time can increase the proportional number of exported product categories by 1%. Therefore, our findings suggest that turnaround time has a statistically significant effect on the intensive and extensive margins of international trade.
Drafts by Vinicios Sant'Anna
Housing is a crucial channel through which migration affects the local economy and wealth distrib... more Housing is a crucial channel through which migration affects the local economy and wealth distribution. However, most of what we know about the effects of migration on housing is from studies focused on the inflows of immigrants. This paper quantifies the impact of out-migration on local housing empirically. We study one of the largest ethnically motivated migration shocks in US history, the United States' Mexican repatriation of the 1930s. Using a novel automated matching technique to link houses across the 1930 and 1940 Censuses, we show that repatriating Mexicans during the Great Depression significantly affected housing in various dimensions. Employing an instrumental variable approach, we show that Mexican-occupied houses experienced a disproportionately large devaluation of their house values and rents in cities more exposed to the repatriation. Critically, the repatriation mattered for aggregate outcomes in US cities: it decreased building permit growth rates, the median house value growth, and the median rent growth at the city level. Our results suggest that repatriations have a long-lasting impact, leaving a footprint on the local economy.
MIT Center for Real Estate Research Paper, 2024
Is ethnic segregation in Europe driven by native flight or immigrant self-isolation? If the forme... more Is ethnic segregation in Europe driven by native flight or immigrant self-isolation? If the former, which natives avoid immigrants? Which immigrants? What is the geographic scope of homophilic residential preferences? We answer these questions using a matched panel containing the universe of individuals and properties in Denmark from 1987 through 2017. We take advantage of the quasi-random nature of refugee placements and simulated exogenous Markov-chain predictions to generate experimental variation regarding local immigrant arrivals. We find strong evidence of native flight, even at the building level. Flight is stronger among the old and a reaction to the arrival of low-income immigrants. As neighborhoods become more immigrantdense, housing prices decline, and subsequent move-ins are more likely to be other immigrants or young, low-income native citizens without children.
International Economics, 2024
We study the effect of the bilateral trade integration with China on wage inequality in Brazil. P... more We study the effect of the bilateral trade integration with China on wage inequality in Brazil. Previous studies have documented the contribution of trade opening to the decline in inequality since the 1990s, driven primarily by cross-firm pay differences. We find a sharper reduction in wage inequality over the 2000s, parallel to China’s accession to the WTO. Our analysis of the China shock suggests that some firms are harmed by import competition, especially those in the High-Tech Manufacturing sector, while others profit from increased exports and cheaper inputs. We rationalize these patterns by extending the theoretical framework of Helpman et al. (2017) to include sector heterogeneity in trade exposure and firm-level selection into imports. Our model indicates that the rise of China led to a reduction in cross-firm wage inequality in Brazil by about 5%.
O objetivo do estudo foi estimar os impactos do tempo dos procedimentos portuários sobre as expor... more O objetivo do estudo foi estimar os impactos do tempo dos procedimentos portuários sobre as exportações brasileiras. O trabalho utiliza uma base de dados inovadora com dados de exportações municipais, com distinção do porto utilizado, país de destino e com produtos desagregados de acordo com o sistema harmonizado em 4 dígitos para o período de 2010 a 2012. Uma equação gravitacional em diferenças foi estimada pelo método de efeitos fixos utilizando as exportações municipais relativas (volume e número de setores exportadores) contra medidas de tempo em horas dos procedimentos portuários e outras variáveis de controle. Os resultados da análise descritiva indicam a presença de um gargalo no escoamento da produção brasileira para o mercado internacional, e apontam para a necessidade de investimentos que ampliem a capacidade portuária, reduzindo as ineficiências que geram elevadas porcentagens do tempo de inoperância nos portos brasileiros. Os resultados das estimações indicam que, de modo geral, cada hora adicional na condução dos procedimentos portuários representam custos para os exportadores brasileiros, que podem estar se refletindo em perda da competitividade dos produtos nacionais no exterior. Segundo as estimações realizadas, cada hora adicional de estadia no porto mediano é equivalente a uma redução do volume total das exportações municipais em cerca de 1%. Além disso, uma redução de 10% no tempo de estadia relativo do navio no porto pode aumentar o número de categorias de produtos exportados entre 0,3% e 0,9%.
Economic Modelling, 2023
This paper studies how and why the bilateral trades in manufacturing and services differ in their... more This paper studies how and why the bilateral trades in manufacturing and services differ in their response to changes in the determinants—both theoretically and empirically. We build a unified theoretical framework that incorporates a demand bias toward services and a difference in the degree of national product differentiation between the two product groups. Estimation results support the theoretical predictions. The empirical model includes, among others, two non-standard trade-cost variables: a measure of internet penetration and virtual proximity (the number of bilateral hyperlinks). An important finding is that virtual proximity – thus far ignored in most gravity models – is a strong predictor of aggregate trade in both services and manufacturing. Also, physical distance is an important determinant of bilateral trade in manufacturing and services, even while controlling for virtual proximity.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2021
Housing is a crucial channel through which migration affects the local economy and wealth distrib... more Housing is a crucial channel through which migration affects the local economy and wealth distribution. However, most of what we know about the effects of migration on housing is from studies focused on the inflows of immigrants. This paper quantifies the impact of out-migration on local housing empirically. We study one of the largest ethnically motivated migration shocks in US history, the United States' Mexican repatriation of the 1930s. Using a novel automated matching technique to link houses across the 1930 and 1940 Censuses, we show that repatriating Mexicans during the Great Depression significantly affected housing in various dimensions. Employing an instrumental variable approach, we show that Mexican-occupied houses experienced a disproportionately large devaluation of their house values and rents in cities more exposed to the repatriation. Critically, the repatriation mattered for aggregate outcomes in US cities: it decreased building permit growth rates, the median house value growth, and the median rent growth at the city level. Our results suggest that repatriations have a long-lasting impact, leaving a footprint on the local economy.
This paper estimates the impact of vessels turnaround time on Brazilian exports. To achieve this ... more This paper estimates the impact of vessels turnaround time on Brazilian exports. To achieve this goal, we use a difference gravity equation in order to explore the time variation in port procedures for 16 Brazilian ports. This paper uses a unique database with local exports, taking into account the port used and products aggregated at the four‐digit Harmonized System (HS) level for the period between 2010 and 2012. The estimation results indicate that, in general, each additional hour of delay in port procedures represents costs to Brazilian exporters, which may lead to loss of competitiveness of domestic products abroad. According to the estimates, each additional relative hour of delay in the average port is equivalent to a reduction in relative local exports of ~2%. Moreover, a 10% relative reduction in vessel turnaround time can increase the proportional number of exported product categories by 1%. Therefore, our findings suggest that turnaround time has a statistically significant effect on the intensive and extensive margins of international trade.
Housing is a crucial channel through which migration affects the local economy and wealth distrib... more Housing is a crucial channel through which migration affects the local economy and wealth distribution. However, most of what we know about the effects of migration on housing is from studies focused on the inflows of immigrants. This paper quantifies the impact of out-migration on local housing empirically. We study one of the largest ethnically motivated migration shocks in US history, the United States' Mexican repatriation of the 1930s. Using a novel automated matching technique to link houses across the 1930 and 1940 Censuses, we show that repatriating Mexicans during the Great Depression significantly affected housing in various dimensions. Employing an instrumental variable approach, we show that Mexican-occupied houses experienced a disproportionately large devaluation of their house values and rents in cities more exposed to the repatriation. Critically, the repatriation mattered for aggregate outcomes in US cities: it decreased building permit growth rates, the median house value growth, and the median rent growth at the city level. Our results suggest that repatriations have a long-lasting impact, leaving a footprint on the local economy.