Bruce Edmonds | Manchester Metropolitan University (original) (raw)

I am Director of the Centre for Policy Modelling, and Senior Research Fellow at the MMU Business School. For Full information see my personal web page at http://bruce.edmonds.name/ or read my blog at: http://bruceedmonds.blogspot.com/

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Papers by Bruce Edmonds

Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation

Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation

PLOS ONE, 2016

Modellers of complex biological or social systems are often faced with an invidious choice: to us... more Modellers of complex biological or social systems are often faced with an invidious choice: to use simple models with few mechanisms that can be fully analysed, or to construct complicated models that include all the features which are thought relevant. The former ensures rigour, the latter relevance. We discuss a method that combines these two approaches, beginning with a complex model and then modelling the complicated model with simpler models. The resulting "chain" of models ensures some rigour and relevance. We illustrate this process on a complex model of voting intentions, constructing a reduced model which agrees well with the predictions of the full model. Experiments with variations of the simpler model yield additional insights which are hidden by the complexity of the full model. This approach facilitated collaboration between social scientists and physicists-the complex model was specified based on the social science literature, and the simpler model constrained to agree (in core aspects) with the complicated model.

Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Mar 31, 2013

The observance of unpredictable episodes of clustered volatility in somedata series has led to th... more The observance of unpredictable episodes of clustered volatility in somedata series has led to the development of models of social processes that will give riseto such clustered volatility. Such models are not, however, validated directly againstqualitative evidence about the behaviour of individuals and how they interact. Anagent based simulation model of the effect of drought on domestic water consumptionis reported here that is the outcome of a process of development involvingstakeholders to inform and validate the model ...

Informatica E Diritto, 2013

This chapter reviews the purpose and use of models from the field of complex systems and, in part... more This chapter reviews the purpose and use of models from the field of complex systems and, in particular, the implications of trying to use models to understand or make decisions within complex situations, such as policy makers usually face. A discussion of the different dimensions one can formalise situations, the different purposes for models and the different kinds of relationship they can have with the policy making process, is followed by an examination of the compromises forced by the complexity of the target issues. Several modelling approaches from complexity science are briefly described, with notes as to their abilities and limitations. These approaches include system dynamics, network theory, information theory, cellular automata, and agent-based modelling. Some examples of policy models are presented and discussed in the context of the previous analysis. Finally we conclude by outlining some of the major pitfalls facing those wishing to use such models for policy evaluation.

Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 2013

The reductionist/holist debate seems an impoverished one, with many participants appearing to ado... more The reductionist/holist debate seems an impoverished one, with many participants appearing to adopt a position first and constructing rationalisations second. Here I propose an intermediate position of pragmatic holism, that irrespective of whether all natural systems are theoretically reducible, for many systems it is completely impractical to attempt such a reduction, also that regardless if whether irreducible `wholes' exist, it

Lecture Notes in Computer Science, 2015

Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, 2014

The Complexity of Social Norms, 2014

Handbook on Complexity and Public Policy, 2015

Perspectives on Culture and Agent-based Simulations, 2013

Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation

Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation

PLOS ONE, 2016

Modellers of complex biological or social systems are often faced with an invidious choice: to us... more Modellers of complex biological or social systems are often faced with an invidious choice: to use simple models with few mechanisms that can be fully analysed, or to construct complicated models that include all the features which are thought relevant. The former ensures rigour, the latter relevance. We discuss a method that combines these two approaches, beginning with a complex model and then modelling the complicated model with simpler models. The resulting "chain" of models ensures some rigour and relevance. We illustrate this process on a complex model of voting intentions, constructing a reduced model which agrees well with the predictions of the full model. Experiments with variations of the simpler model yield additional insights which are hidden by the complexity of the full model. This approach facilitated collaboration between social scientists and physicists-the complex model was specified based on the social science literature, and the simpler model constrained to agree (in core aspects) with the complicated model.

Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Mar 31, 2013

The observance of unpredictable episodes of clustered volatility in somedata series has led to th... more The observance of unpredictable episodes of clustered volatility in somedata series has led to the development of models of social processes that will give riseto such clustered volatility. Such models are not, however, validated directly againstqualitative evidence about the behaviour of individuals and how they interact. Anagent based simulation model of the effect of drought on domestic water consumptionis reported here that is the outcome of a process of development involvingstakeholders to inform and validate the model ...

Informatica E Diritto, 2013

This chapter reviews the purpose and use of models from the field of complex systems and, in part... more This chapter reviews the purpose and use of models from the field of complex systems and, in particular, the implications of trying to use models to understand or make decisions within complex situations, such as policy makers usually face. A discussion of the different dimensions one can formalise situations, the different purposes for models and the different kinds of relationship they can have with the policy making process, is followed by an examination of the compromises forced by the complexity of the target issues. Several modelling approaches from complexity science are briefly described, with notes as to their abilities and limitations. These approaches include system dynamics, network theory, information theory, cellular automata, and agent-based modelling. Some examples of policy models are presented and discussed in the context of the previous analysis. Finally we conclude by outlining some of the major pitfalls facing those wishing to use such models for policy evaluation.

Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 2013

The reductionist/holist debate seems an impoverished one, with many participants appearing to ado... more The reductionist/holist debate seems an impoverished one, with many participants appearing to adopt a position first and constructing rationalisations second. Here I propose an intermediate position of pragmatic holism, that irrespective of whether all natural systems are theoretically reducible, for many systems it is completely impractical to attempt such a reduction, also that regardless if whether irreducible `wholes' exist, it

Lecture Notes in Computer Science, 2015

Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, 2014

The Complexity of Social Norms, 2014

Handbook on Complexity and Public Policy, 2015

Perspectives on Culture and Agent-based Simulations, 2013

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