L. Zotov | Moscow State University (original) (raw)

Papers by L. Zotov

Research paper thumbnail of Earth's rotation, Russian national geodetic report

Research paper thumbnail of Combined Prediction of Earth Orientation Parameters

Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering, 2012

Research paper thumbnail of Chandler wobble excitation reconstruction and analysis

Different methods of geodetic excitation reconstruction from observations of the polar motion are... more Different methods of geodetic excitation reconstruction from observations of the polar motion are compared. Among them Wilson-Jeffreys filter, Tikhonov regularization, Panteleev corrective smoothing. Reconstruction of Chandler excitation is an inverse problem, aggravated by the strong annual oscillation, which is nearby in frequency band. Special attempts to filter annual oscillation out were undertaken, among them the harmonic model subtraction, Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) and Panteleev smoothing. Obtained results compared one with another and with geophysical excitations, such as atmospheric and oceanic angular momentum, El Nino event, solar and lunar tides. Amplitude and phase correlation analysis was performed. Phase change of the Chandler oscillation in the 30-th of the XX century found a partial explanation.

Research paper thumbnail of Gravity changes over Russian rivers basins from GRACE (Chapter 3)

Research paper thumbnail of Many-year variations of river runoff in the Selenga basin

Research paper thumbnail of An Exo-Jupiter candidate in the eclipsing binary FL Lyr

Research paper thumbnail of Achievements of the Earth orientation parameters prediction comparison campaign

Research paper thumbnail of Dynamical Modeling and Excitation Reconstruction as Fundamental of Earth Rotation Prediction

Artificial Satellites, 2010

Dynamical Modeling and Excitation Reconstruction as Fundamental of Earth Rotation Prediction Thou... more Dynamical Modeling and Excitation Reconstruction as Fundamental of Earth Rotation Prediction Though pure mathematical approximations such as regression models and neural networks show good results in Earth rotation forecasting, dynamical modeling remains the only base for the physically meaningful prediction. That assumes the knowledge of cause-effect relationships and physical model of the rotating Earth. Excitation reconstruction from the observed Earth orientation parameters (EOP) is a crucial stage, needed for comparison with known causes, such as tidal forcing, atmospheric (AAM), oceanic (OAM) angular momentum changes, and uncovering unknown ones. We demonstrate different approaches, which can be used to avoid ill-conditionality and amplification of noises during the inversion. We present amplitude and phase studies of the model and reconstructed excitations of Chandler wobble. We found out, that modulation of Chandler excitation is synchronous with 18-yr tidal effects in the E...

Research paper thumbnail of Ea Level and Global Earth Temperature Changes Have Common Oscillations

Odessa Astronomical Publications, 2013

Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) of Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) and Global Average Earth Tempera... more Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) of Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) and Global Average Earth Temperature (HadCRUT4) data revealed pres­ence of quasiperiodic components with periods of 60, 20 and 10 years in both time series. 60-year component of sea level is anticorrelated with long-periodic changes in temperature, while 10 and 20-year components are correlated. The question what can be the nature of these common oscillations is discussed.

Research paper thumbnail of Chandler Wobble and Lod Anomalyes in 2010-2020S

19th Annual Meeting of the Asia Oceania Geosciences Society

Research paper thumbnail of Admittance of the Earth Rotational Response to Zonal Tide Potential

Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 2022

• Admittance coefficients defining the Earth's rotational response to zonal tidal components are ... more • Admittance coefficients defining the Earth's rotational response to zonal tidal components are determined from the length of day changes. • This study applies the full hydro-atmospheric corrections to be removed from the LOD before estimating the admittances. • The dispersion between the estimated admittances and their frequency dependent modelled values between 7 and 35 days is reduced substantially.

Research paper thumbnail of On the variability of the Chandler wobble

The works that we carried out during the last ten years lead to significant progress in the knowl... more The works that we carried out during the last ten years lead to significant progress in the knowledge of the Chandler wobble (CW) of the Earth polar motion (PM). In Zotov and Bizouard (2012) we reconstructed the excitation of this resonant mode by using Panteleev’s corrective filtering. Now we are sure, that this filtering is a regularizing algorithm as far as its parameters are consistently selected with the uncertainty affecting the resonance parameters and the observations. The excitation demonstrated a quasi 20-year amplitude modulation. In the framework of the first order differential linear equation describing the polar motion, it is easy to show that this modulation accounts for the 40-year change of the CW amplitude as well as the splitting of the CW spectra. A simple model of the CW, composed of 80 and 40-year harmonics, accounts for the present minimum in Chandler wobble amplitude, like in 1930s, and also predicts that its amplitude will start to increase in the nearest fu...

Research paper thumbnail of On modulations of the Chandler wobble excitation

Journal of Geodynamics, 2012

We derive the Chandler wobble excitation from the polar motion (PM) observations by using the Pan... more We derive the Chandler wobble excitation from the polar motion (PM) observations by using the Panteleev corrective filtering. The latter method is based on inversion of the Euler-Liouville equation, with additional filtering in the Chandler frequency band. The excitation reconstruction reveals amplitude changes different from the one observed in the Chandler wobble itself. Their main feature, well observable over the length of the day (LOD), is the presence of a 18.6-year amplitude modulation synchronous with the lunar orbital precession cycle and tidal effects. The filtering of oceanic and atmospheric excitation in the Chandler frequency band also reveals a coherent 18.6-year oceanic pattern. Most probably the ocean provide a channel for the tidal energy transfer.

Research paper thumbnail of National Report for the IAG of the IUGG 2011-2014

Geoinformatics Research Papers, 2015

In this National Report are given major results of researches conducted by Russian geodesists in ... more In this National Report are given major results of researches conducted by Russian geodesists in 2011-2014 on the topics of the International Association of Geodesy (IAG) of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG). This report is prepared by the Section of Geodesy of the National Geophysical Committee of Russia. In the report prepared for the XXVI General Assembly of IUGG (Czhech Republic, Prague, 22 June-2 July 2015), the results of principal researches in geodesy, geodynamics, gravimetry, in the studies of geodetic reference frame creation and development, Earth's shape and gravity field, Earth's rotation, geodetic theory, its application and some other directions are briefly described. For some objective reasons not all results obtained by Russian scientists on the problems of geodesy are included in the report. В данном Национальном отчете представлены основные результаты исследований, проводимых российскими геодезистами в 2011-2014 гг., по темам, соответветствующим направлениям деятельности Международной ассоциации геодезии (МАГ) Международного геодезического и геофизического союза (МГГС). Данный отчет подготовлен Секцией геодезии Национального геофизического комитета Российской академии наук. В данном отчете, подготовленном к XXVI Генеральной ассамблее МГГС (Чехия, Прага, 22 июня-2 июля 2015 г.), представлены основные результаты исследований в области геодезии, геодинамики, гравиметрии, создания геодезических систем отсчета, формы и гравитационного поля Земли, вращения Земли, теории геодезии и ее приложений. По понятным причинам, в отчет были включены не все результаты, полученные российскими учеными в области геодезии.

Research paper thumbnail of Singular spectral analysis of GRACE observations

Research paper thumbnail of Singular spectrum analysis of GRACE observations

Research paper thumbnail of Multichannel singular spectrum analysis in application to GRACE and Jason-1 satellites data

Multichannel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) was applied to the Stokes coefficients of the temp... more Multichannel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) was applied to the Stokes coefficients of the temporal gravity filed solutions obtained from the GRACE twin-satellite gravity mapping mission, and to the 10-days gridded maps of Sea Surface Height (SSH) time series from ...

Research paper thumbnail of Achievements of the Earth orientation parameters prediction comparison campaign

Precise transformations between the international celestial and terrestrial reference frames are ... more Precise transformations between the international celestial and terrestrial reference frames are needed for many advanced geodetic and astronomical tasks including positioning and navigation on Earth and in space. To perform this transformation at the time of observation, that is for real-M. Kalarus (B) · W. Kosek time applications, accurate predictions of the Earth orientation parameters (EOP) are needed. The Earth orientation parameters prediction comparison campaign (EOP PCC) that started in October 2005 was organized for the purpose of assessing the accuracy of EOP predictions. This paper summarizes the results of the EOP PCC after nearly two and a half years of operational activity. The ultra short-term (predictions to 10 days into the future), short-term (30 days), and medium-term (500 days) EOP predictions submitted by the participants were evaluated by the same statistical technique based on the mean absolute prediction error using the IERS EOP 05 C04 series as a reference. A combined series of EOP predictions computed as a weighted mean of all submissions available at a given prediction epoch was also evaluated. The combined series is shown to perform very well, as do some of the individual series, especially those using atmospheric angular momentum forecasts. A main conclusion of the EOP PCC is that no single prediction technique performs the best for all EOP components and all prediction intervals.

Research paper thumbnail of Earth's rotation, Russian national geodetic report

Research paper thumbnail of Combined Prediction of Earth Orientation Parameters

Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering, 2012

Research paper thumbnail of Chandler wobble excitation reconstruction and analysis

Different methods of geodetic excitation reconstruction from observations of the polar motion are... more Different methods of geodetic excitation reconstruction from observations of the polar motion are compared. Among them Wilson-Jeffreys filter, Tikhonov regularization, Panteleev corrective smoothing. Reconstruction of Chandler excitation is an inverse problem, aggravated by the strong annual oscillation, which is nearby in frequency band. Special attempts to filter annual oscillation out were undertaken, among them the harmonic model subtraction, Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) and Panteleev smoothing. Obtained results compared one with another and with geophysical excitations, such as atmospheric and oceanic angular momentum, El Nino event, solar and lunar tides. Amplitude and phase correlation analysis was performed. Phase change of the Chandler oscillation in the 30-th of the XX century found a partial explanation.

Research paper thumbnail of Gravity changes over Russian rivers basins from GRACE (Chapter 3)

Research paper thumbnail of Many-year variations of river runoff in the Selenga basin

Research paper thumbnail of An Exo-Jupiter candidate in the eclipsing binary FL Lyr

Research paper thumbnail of Achievements of the Earth orientation parameters prediction comparison campaign

Research paper thumbnail of Dynamical Modeling and Excitation Reconstruction as Fundamental of Earth Rotation Prediction

Artificial Satellites, 2010

Dynamical Modeling and Excitation Reconstruction as Fundamental of Earth Rotation Prediction Thou... more Dynamical Modeling and Excitation Reconstruction as Fundamental of Earth Rotation Prediction Though pure mathematical approximations such as regression models and neural networks show good results in Earth rotation forecasting, dynamical modeling remains the only base for the physically meaningful prediction. That assumes the knowledge of cause-effect relationships and physical model of the rotating Earth. Excitation reconstruction from the observed Earth orientation parameters (EOP) is a crucial stage, needed for comparison with known causes, such as tidal forcing, atmospheric (AAM), oceanic (OAM) angular momentum changes, and uncovering unknown ones. We demonstrate different approaches, which can be used to avoid ill-conditionality and amplification of noises during the inversion. We present amplitude and phase studies of the model and reconstructed excitations of Chandler wobble. We found out, that modulation of Chandler excitation is synchronous with 18-yr tidal effects in the E...

Research paper thumbnail of Ea Level and Global Earth Temperature Changes Have Common Oscillations

Odessa Astronomical Publications, 2013

Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) of Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) and Global Average Earth Tempera... more Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) of Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) and Global Average Earth Temperature (HadCRUT4) data revealed pres­ence of quasiperiodic components with periods of 60, 20 and 10 years in both time series. 60-year component of sea level is anticorrelated with long-periodic changes in temperature, while 10 and 20-year components are correlated. The question what can be the nature of these common oscillations is discussed.

Research paper thumbnail of Chandler Wobble and Lod Anomalyes in 2010-2020S

19th Annual Meeting of the Asia Oceania Geosciences Society

Research paper thumbnail of Admittance of the Earth Rotational Response to Zonal Tide Potential

Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 2022

• Admittance coefficients defining the Earth's rotational response to zonal tidal components are ... more • Admittance coefficients defining the Earth's rotational response to zonal tidal components are determined from the length of day changes. • This study applies the full hydro-atmospheric corrections to be removed from the LOD before estimating the admittances. • The dispersion between the estimated admittances and their frequency dependent modelled values between 7 and 35 days is reduced substantially.

Research paper thumbnail of On the variability of the Chandler wobble

The works that we carried out during the last ten years lead to significant progress in the knowl... more The works that we carried out during the last ten years lead to significant progress in the knowledge of the Chandler wobble (CW) of the Earth polar motion (PM). In Zotov and Bizouard (2012) we reconstructed the excitation of this resonant mode by using Panteleev’s corrective filtering. Now we are sure, that this filtering is a regularizing algorithm as far as its parameters are consistently selected with the uncertainty affecting the resonance parameters and the observations. The excitation demonstrated a quasi 20-year amplitude modulation. In the framework of the first order differential linear equation describing the polar motion, it is easy to show that this modulation accounts for the 40-year change of the CW amplitude as well as the splitting of the CW spectra. A simple model of the CW, composed of 80 and 40-year harmonics, accounts for the present minimum in Chandler wobble amplitude, like in 1930s, and also predicts that its amplitude will start to increase in the nearest fu...

Research paper thumbnail of On modulations of the Chandler wobble excitation

Journal of Geodynamics, 2012

We derive the Chandler wobble excitation from the polar motion (PM) observations by using the Pan... more We derive the Chandler wobble excitation from the polar motion (PM) observations by using the Panteleev corrective filtering. The latter method is based on inversion of the Euler-Liouville equation, with additional filtering in the Chandler frequency band. The excitation reconstruction reveals amplitude changes different from the one observed in the Chandler wobble itself. Their main feature, well observable over the length of the day (LOD), is the presence of a 18.6-year amplitude modulation synchronous with the lunar orbital precession cycle and tidal effects. The filtering of oceanic and atmospheric excitation in the Chandler frequency band also reveals a coherent 18.6-year oceanic pattern. Most probably the ocean provide a channel for the tidal energy transfer.

Research paper thumbnail of National Report for the IAG of the IUGG 2011-2014

Geoinformatics Research Papers, 2015

In this National Report are given major results of researches conducted by Russian geodesists in ... more In this National Report are given major results of researches conducted by Russian geodesists in 2011-2014 on the topics of the International Association of Geodesy (IAG) of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG). This report is prepared by the Section of Geodesy of the National Geophysical Committee of Russia. In the report prepared for the XXVI General Assembly of IUGG (Czhech Republic, Prague, 22 June-2 July 2015), the results of principal researches in geodesy, geodynamics, gravimetry, in the studies of geodetic reference frame creation and development, Earth's shape and gravity field, Earth's rotation, geodetic theory, its application and some other directions are briefly described. For some objective reasons not all results obtained by Russian scientists on the problems of geodesy are included in the report. В данном Национальном отчете представлены основные результаты исследований, проводимых российскими геодезистами в 2011-2014 гг., по темам, соответветствующим направлениям деятельности Международной ассоциации геодезии (МАГ) Международного геодезического и геофизического союза (МГГС). Данный отчет подготовлен Секцией геодезии Национального геофизического комитета Российской академии наук. В данном отчете, подготовленном к XXVI Генеральной ассамблее МГГС (Чехия, Прага, 22 июня-2 июля 2015 г.), представлены основные результаты исследований в области геодезии, геодинамики, гравиметрии, создания геодезических систем отсчета, формы и гравитационного поля Земли, вращения Земли, теории геодезии и ее приложений. По понятным причинам, в отчет были включены не все результаты, полученные российскими учеными в области геодезии.

Research paper thumbnail of Singular spectral analysis of GRACE observations

Research paper thumbnail of Singular spectrum analysis of GRACE observations

Research paper thumbnail of Multichannel singular spectrum analysis in application to GRACE and Jason-1 satellites data

Multichannel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) was applied to the Stokes coefficients of the temp... more Multichannel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) was applied to the Stokes coefficients of the temporal gravity filed solutions obtained from the GRACE twin-satellite gravity mapping mission, and to the 10-days gridded maps of Sea Surface Height (SSH) time series from ...

Research paper thumbnail of Achievements of the Earth orientation parameters prediction comparison campaign

Precise transformations between the international celestial and terrestrial reference frames are ... more Precise transformations between the international celestial and terrestrial reference frames are needed for many advanced geodetic and astronomical tasks including positioning and navigation on Earth and in space. To perform this transformation at the time of observation, that is for real-M. Kalarus (B) · W. Kosek time applications, accurate predictions of the Earth orientation parameters (EOP) are needed. The Earth orientation parameters prediction comparison campaign (EOP PCC) that started in October 2005 was organized for the purpose of assessing the accuracy of EOP predictions. This paper summarizes the results of the EOP PCC after nearly two and a half years of operational activity. The ultra short-term (predictions to 10 days into the future), short-term (30 days), and medium-term (500 days) EOP predictions submitted by the participants were evaluated by the same statistical technique based on the mean absolute prediction error using the IERS EOP 05 C04 series as a reference. A combined series of EOP predictions computed as a weighted mean of all submissions available at a given prediction epoch was also evaluated. The combined series is shown to perform very well, as do some of the individual series, especially those using atmospheric angular momentum forecasts. A main conclusion of the EOP PCC is that no single prediction technique performs the best for all EOP components and all prediction intervals.