Sakari Ahvenainen | Finnish National Defence University (original) (raw)

Papers by Sakari Ahvenainen

Johdannon mukaan artikkelissa "tarkastellaan sodankayntia, viestiyhteyksien merkitysta, vies... more Johdannon mukaan artikkelissa "tarkastellaan sodankayntia, viestiyhteyksien merkitysta, viestijarjestelmille asetettavia vaatimuksia seka niiden valossa jaakariprikaatin paaviestijarjestelmaa, yhtyman viestijarjestelmaa, yvi:a. Ensimmaisessa luvussa tarkastellaan kokonaisuutta, johon viestiyhteydet liittyvat Toisessa luvussa tarkastellaan viestiyhteyksien merkitysta ja niille asetettavia vaatimuksia. Kolmannessa luvussa tarkastellaan viestiyhteyksia vihollisen toiminnan kohteena. Neljannessa luvussa esitellaan yhtyman viestijarjestelma ja sen ominaisuudet ja niista seuraavat vaikutukset mm. johtamiseen." Yhteenvedossa todetaan muun muassa, etta "Nykyaikaisen sodankaynnin vaatima nopeus ja varmuus tiedonkasittelyssa ja - valityksessa ei ole mahdollista ilman hyvin toimivia viestiyhteyksia Miltei kaikki sodankaynnin osajarjestelmat, ase-, valvonta-, tiedustelu- ja johtamisjarjestelmat ovat erittain riippuvaisia viestiyhteyksista. Yhtyman viestijarjestelmaautomaattisena...

Tiede Ja Ase (Yearbook of the Finnish Society of Military Sciences), 2003

Tieto, sodankäynti ja tiedon merkitys tulevaisuudessa (In Finnish) Information, warfare and mean... more Tieto, sodankäynti ja tiedon merkitys tulevaisuudessa (In Finnish)

Information, warfare and meaning of information in the future

Tiede Ja Ase (Yearbook of the Finnish Society of Military Sciences), 2007

Sotilas- ja siviiliteknologian eroista – evolutiivinen ja systeeminen tarkastelu (in Finnish) Ab... more Sotilas- ja siviiliteknologian eroista – evolutiivinen ja systeeminen tarkastelu (in Finnish)

About the differences of military and civilian technology - evolutive and systemic point of view.

Tiede Ja Ase (Yearbook of the Finnish Society of Military Sciences), 1994

Sodankäynnistä, elektroniikasta ja elsosta (in Finnish) About warfare, electronics and electroni... more Sodankäynnistä, elektroniikasta ja elsosta (in Finnish)

About warfare, electronics and electronic warfare

Understanding the chaotic, complex and constantly evolving warfare of our time is a pivotal chall... more Understanding the chaotic, complex and constantly evolving warfare of our time is a pivotal challenge for every warfare theoretician and military leader. " A matter of life and death, a road either to safety or to ruin " as Sunzi said. This consciousness-raising article presents two tentative scientific theories, namely systems theory and evolution, that have been used successfully elsewhere. We then analyse whether they can be applied to war and cyberwar at the very basic level. Although some of the findings may seem trivial, we nonetheless do show that there is something not quite so trivial underneath. Some of these " trivial " findings even challenge our current understanding of warfare in some details, and as we all know, the devil is in the details. Firstly, systems theory discusses systems, their environments and the system-environment interactions. Applied to cyberwar this means that cyberwar can be considered a logical product of its environment, e.g. global computer technology and information society. Systems theory is also about new system levels produced via emergence, a new integrated pattern of parts. These levels can be found in the history of warfare and cyberwar is a new level of warfare at the global level. This emergence and its new patterns explain some of the chaos that is characteristic of modern global (cyber-)war. Secondly, evolution is about changes in systems over time. This article presents cyberwar as a new logical evolutive change in warfare and presents the four mega changes preceding it. To strengthen the analysis and get some feedback, Sunzi and Clausewitz were evaluated to see whether their writings in fact contain some general system-theoretical and evolutive ideas. And the answer is yes, they did. We conclude that at the state level cyberwar is not so different from traditional war. However, the distinguishing feature of cyberwar is its global aspect and in that respect it differs greatly from traditional warfare. According to this article, about 73 percent (8/11) of the general features of warfare are not general features of cyberwar. We argue that cyberwar has already taken place-in the late 80s-at a global level. It was an example of Sunzi's extreme that to win without fighting is the ultimate skill in war. We argue too that the first one-and-a-half-year long cyberwar between states was fought already in the late 90s. In both cases it was a conflict between the USA and the Soviet Union (Russia). Furthermore, two non-trivial conclusions of this article are advice on how to educate a military strategist and the real military meaning of information age and cyberwar.

This article was selected 8th July 2016 as the best PhD paper in ECCWS 2016 conference out of 11 ... more This article was selected 8th July 2016 as the best PhD paper in ECCWS 2016 conference out of 11 PhD papers, although together with an other technical paper.

This article introduces and extends a less known model of history of warfare. It is based on one of the largest academic research projects ever carried out on warfare. It also evaluates the extended version for postmodern warfare as an application and a prediction of the model. The original work is a model of the evolutive phases of warfare. It was published in 1942 as a part of a book " A Study of War " , in two-volumes by Quincy Wright, a pacifist and professor of law. The evolutive phases of warfare were animalistic warfare (up to 50,000 BC), primitive warfare (after 50,000 BC), historical warfare (after 3000 BC) and modern warfare (after 1500 AD). New information technology made it possible to create bigger human organizations and caused bigger wars in these phases. These technologies and their levels were protolanguage (clan), language (tribe), writing (state) and printing press (cultures?). This article points out that cybernetics and systems theory support the interpretation of the Wright's model of history of warfare although both cybernetics and systems theory have been introduced after the publication of Wright's book. The presented model predicts the warfare of our time in a surprisingly accurate, though general manner. The next mega phase of warfare, the postmodern warfare, will have at least the following qualities:
- It will introduce a new kind of communication technology following the printing press
- Its main organizational level is global
- Its main accounts are not science and technology, as they were the main accounts for the fourth phase (1500–2000 AD), but something else
- As a new mega phase, its application and patterns are new and emergent and thus a surprise to us all
- It will be a short phase which will only last some 50 years
- Its ongoing transition period will include change and chaos and a rearrangement of everything we know.

In this article warfare is studied as a multi face, evolutionary, information and acting based sy... more In this article warfare is studied as a multi face, evolutionary, information and acting based system. Central element of this study is Quincy Wright's evolutionary theory of war. It lets us to predict the future, which is based on technology, complexity, specialization, increased size of systems and increased information content. Warfare as an evolutionary system is an adaptive system, a chameleon. This also predicts a change of warfare in the future. We are in a middle of the global change towards global information warfare. But what is the role of global war against terrorism?

“What Can We Say About Cyberwar Based on Cybernetics?” article examines the basics of cyberwar, m... more “What Can We Say About Cyberwar Based on Cybernetics?” article examines the basics of cyberwar, mostly cybernetics. It also deals with cyberspace as a new global infrastructure
and cyberwar as a global level of warfare. The focus of the article is also on the types and levels of cybernetic information and their importance in cyberwar. It also studies the human
and the computer as cybernetic systems and as targets of cyberwar. Ahvenainen points out eight logical types of cyberwar and claims that essentially Sun Tzu’s and Clausewitz’s understandings of warfare similar to the cybernetic process and that John Boyd’s OODA loop is a cybernetic process. According to him, computer programs and integrated chips combined with human understanding comprise the heart of cyberwar.

This paper pays attention on the meaning of information superiority. Traditionally, the definitio... more This paper pays attention on the meaning of information superiority. Traditionally, the definitions of information superiority have emphasized the management of data and information. This paper describes and applies the concepts created in the fields of information and knowledge management and the theories of time to increase understanding about the contents of information superiority. The paper uses Popper's three worlds as a theoretical framework to classify the components of information superiority.

The aim of this paper is to increase understanding about the acquisition of information superiori... more The aim of this paper is to increase understanding about the acquisition of information superiority (IS). The first hypothesis of this paper is that IS as a military action needs a holistic and systematic approach to become real. Some principal point of views to the complexity of IS are presented: IS as a source for relative advantage and OODA- loop expanded from command and control to universal object-oriented acting. The second hypothesis is that the acquisition of IS requires increasing time-divergent communication conducted in networks. IS is a complex undertaking but fortunately in a real world only relative IS is needed, not an absolute one.

The interesting problem of the article was: What is the past, present and possibly future signifi... more The interesting problem of the article was: What is the past, present and possibly future significance of information and information technology in the evolution of mankind? Based on systems theory the significance has been remarkable. The new systems level requires the interaction possibilities and connections of its specialized parts. These include the quantity of information corresponding to the new level and its complexity and the corresponding communications system for the communication between the components of the enlarged system. Information and information technology are tools for complexity management. The former is the message and the latter is its medium.
The significant changes in the information technology for the evolution of mankind have been the emergence of speech, the invention of writing, the invention of printing and lastly the global integrated electronic information technology culminating in the Internet. The growth of the system size has made possible a continually expanding specialization and division of labor. Specialization itself has made possible a better and broader technology and that itself a better well-being, at least more material goods, including artifacts. The development of information technology is part of this broader development. The next mega phase after the printing era is most evidently the global integrated electronic information technology that culminates in the global computer network, the Internet. Its central task in the context of this article is complexity management at the global level. At the same time complexity management changes every aspect of our life such as science. Next to the theoretical and experimental science comes computational science that can only be created with computers. Complexity management and information rise up to be the new emergent explanatory models for the new global level — at least at the hypothetical level. These come after the technology and science of the previous, cultural level. Trade and technology seem to anticipate political and organizational development.

Talks by Sakari Ahvenainen

Book Reviews by Sakari Ahvenainen

Purpose This article is a report for Finnish Defense University course “Critical Infrastructure ... more Purpose

This article is a report for Finnish Defense University course “Critical Infrastructure protection 2013” for post graduate students. This article analyses the chapter “Origin” of the course book by professor Ted G Lewis “Critical Infrastructure Protection in Homeland Security: Defending a Networked Nation” [1] in order to find some new insight to the origin of critical infrastructure protection (CIP) and to find some new ideas for Finnish CIP activity.

The objective of this article is to answer the following question:

What is the origin of critical infrastructure protection based on (1) professor Ted G Lewis’s course book, (2) formal concept analysis and (3) evolution?

Methodology
The process used in this article is evolutionary induction introduced by Karl Popper, Austrian-British professor and philosopher of science. It condenses to a process of (1) a starting point, an interesting problem, (2) its first interpretations, tentative theories, (3) processing information (critical thinking and sorting out of mistakes) and finally (4) output, new interpretation of the starting point and birth of new problems. [2, p. 287]

Findings
It is found in the article that science of critical infrastructure protection is a very new phenomenon but that critical infrastructure protection is as old as critical infrastructure itself. The first critical infrastructure for humans was the territory. Its protection was the origin of infrastructure protection, not National Communications System (NCS) in 1963. For Homo sapiens, modern man, this means at least some 100,000 years. And basically territory is the critical infrastructure for all animals and plants. It is also found in the article that the critical infrastructure protection and its science have more than ten evolutionary phases.

Originality/value
Even though “critical infrastructure protection” as a word is quite new, the phenomenon of “critical infrastructure protection” is old. The origin of critical infrastructure protection is farther away in history and has more steps in this article than presented by Lewis. This is according to evolution, the idea that all things have history, the only possible exception being Big Bang as a part of our universe.

Conference Presentations by Sakari Ahvenainen

Cybernetics: Theory of General Information Influence? - Information, Computers and Humans as an E... more Cybernetics: Theory of General Information Influence? - Information, Computers and Humans as an Essence of Postmodern Warfare
Sakari Ahvenainen

National Defence University
sakari.ahvenainen@kolumbus.fi

Key words: cybernetics, information theory, computers, humans, postmodern warfare, information actors, theory, influence, cyberwar

Have you ever heard of (Russian) psychotronic warfare? This article presents an analytical model of cyberwar. One of its outcomes is a systematic classification in which psychotronic warfare is a part of 20 logical and holistic types of cyberwar.

Thus in this article we will present a systematic, scientific, holistic and balanced model to understanding information based postmodern warfare and society. Today this model or theory is as important as thermodynamics was in the 19th century. This theory, as a working hypothesis is cybernetics. It has two principal information actors, humans and computers. They are in the core of postmodern warfare and society. With some add-ons we have basic tools to systematically study cyberwar.

Warfare is a very complex social activity and so it is missing good predicting theories. Since the WW II, contemporary warfare has been dominated by information and complexity on especially doctrinal level. First this was seen in Command, Control and Communication Counter-Measuress (C3CM), then in Information Warfare (IW) and Information Operations (IO), then in Network-Centric Warfare (NCW), Effect-Based Operations (EBO), Operational Design (OD) and chaoplexic warfare, combination of chaos and complexity. Surprisingly, there is still no information theory that has been more widely accepted and used to study warfare, not at least in the West.

For our information age we need a science dealing with information. In a time of this kind of major change we live now, there is a real possibility to miss the essence of the change and so endanger for example the future of one’s nation or its ranking among other nations. This is especially true, because a change of this kind is often emergent and hard to predict by observing the level where it is forming.

Similarly, earlier, in the industrialization starting in the 18th century a new science was necessary. The “engine” of this change was the steam engine and for it a completely new science, thermo-dynamics was needed. Accordingly, the engine of our time is the computer and its science, as a working hypothesis, cybernetics.

We approached our research problem by making a hypothesis and testing it. Our problem was to investigate if there is a scientific theory to study and to understand the complex, networked and global postmodern warfare. To select our hypothesis, we had some preliminary notices and intuitions, even some previous articles as a pre-knowledge dealing with some aspects of this problem. Our working hypothesis, basically trial and error, was that this theory able to deal with postmodern warfare is cybernetics, the theory of complex systems using goals, controls and information. To test our hypothesis, we studied the basic elements of cybernetic systems and compared them with warfare and if it had too these cybernetic parts, structure and dynamics.

The main observation of our study was: Cybernetics is a less used and understood theory in warfare, although for example John Boyd’s famous OODA-loop (Observation - Orientation – Decision and Actions) is a pure and very principled cybernetic model, but not often discussed as a such. Cybernetics has been developed in the last decades in management, social sciences, philosophy and organization theory. There is even a new kind of general post-Wiener mathematical cybernetic theory, theory of enformatics (energic information). Cybernetics is not death, and not just a mathematical control theory of contemporary technological sciences.

Further on, we noticed that warfare is a cybernetic process in every one of its levels: combat techniques, tactics, operational art, strategy and grand strategy at coalition level. Warfare is a complex phenomenon and has goals, controls and information processing. These cybernetic part of warfare are for example sensors (intelligence, recognition and surveillance), decision making units (commanders and staffs) and effectors (task executing subunits, artillery, air support, electronic warfare units, information warfare units, …). Also humans and computers have these same cybernetic parts. We find out that computer should be considered also as a research tool to rule the complexity of postmodern global warfare and global society, not just a tool to automate systems and things. Cyborgs, as an integration of humans and computers are also as a prediction, parts of this era. Further on, there is a second cyberspace inside human brains, beside the generally known cyberspace of computers, for example internet. There are three levels of cybernetic information influence on humans and computers: (1) setup value or goal (mind!), (2) models of reality or interpretative information and (3) signals or input and output information. This observation on three levels is potentially a base for Psychological Operations, mind control?

Maybe the most interesting observation was that our model generates systematically 20 (2 * 2 * 5) different cyberwar types. The first division is by types of dimension or domains; concrete physical atomic world or abstract cybernetic information world, 2 possibilities. The second division is by actors; humans or computers, 2 possibilities. The last division is by targets; human or computer information, their physical cybernetic parts or their common environment, including non-cybernetic part of humans and computers, 5 possibilities. One of this types of cyberwar is the Russian psychotronic warfare, use of computers against human computer operator. Simulation happens also in human minds, not just in computers and is for example basic element of mental training to perfect athletics for better performance.

Implication of our research is that we live in an era of information, which means mainly two information actors, humans and computers. Cybernetics is a working hypothesis of a science for our information age. Cyberneticly mind is the setup value, the highest part of human cybernetic information as a target of warfare. Internet is the new global source and battlefield of information in our age and globally important in fighting for the minds and hearts. The combination of humans and computers is important, as the cyborg – notion suggests.

Computer is the tool to unveil the secrets of the complexity of our time and to rule the highest human organization that is forming, the global mankind. We have to move for good from modern and parts (mass society and mass or attrition warfare) to the postmodern and whole (precision or information warfare). Part of this transition is the increased targeting of human mind, decision makers and people as a core target of postmodern warfare. This suggest doctrine like strategic communication. Information is the new domain, present in many (every?) military application, but nothing old will disappear for good as for example atoms are necessary to form the physical structures of cybernetic systems, like humans and computers. Cybernetics is, according to our analyses, a theory of postmodern warfare and society.

For future research we suggest that we should take also in the West a deeper and a new look for cybernetics and warfare as a cybernetic process, even to promote it as the main candidate of science of our age. It is already a candidate for a new main discipline in philosophy as for example Luciano Floridi’s work suggest. This concerns especially complex systems, which are the real challenge of our age.