Nick Parr | Macquarie University (original) (raw)

Papers by Nick Parr

NIUSSP, 2023

Recent decreases in fertility rates in European countries have fueled gloom and doom about the pr... more Recent decreases in fertility rates in European countries have fueled gloom and doom about the prospect of shrinking populations. As Nick Parr shows, the levels of fertility that would sustain population size differ widely across European countries with differing levels of net migration. For some of these countries the birth rate needed is far below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman. The total fertility rate (TFR) is below the 2.1 "replacement level" in every European country, after a sustained fall in two-thirds of them between 2009 and 2018 (Eurostat 2021), and it is common to see commentary on population trends along the lines of "to sustain population levels the (national) fertility rate needs to be about 2.1 births per woman" (e.g. BBC 2020, Economist 2023). Such views, however, are misconceived.

Population and Development Review, 2023

This paper brings a new perspective to the population growth implications of the low fertility le... more This paper brings a new perspective to the population growth implications of the low fertility levels of European countries. For years between 2009 and 2018, whether constant fertility, mortality, and net migration would generate long-run population growth or population decrease is indicated simply and visually by comparison of the total fertility rate (TFR) to a migration-adjusted replacement level. The results show that, when considered in combination with concurrent net migration and mortality, the population growth implication of low fertility varies between countries and over time. For Sweden, Luxembourg, Belgium, and the United Kingdom for all the years considered the fertility-mortality-migration combination is coherent with longrun population growth. For the former two countries, long-run population growth would be sustained by net migration at current levels even if fertility were to fall to very low levels. In contrast, for every Eastern European country and year considered, unchanged fertility-mortality-migration combination would lead to population decrease. The need for an alternative view of low fertility in terms of whether the TFR is above or below a migration-adjusted replacement level and the need for a migration context-specific view, as distinct from a universal best view, of the desirability of fertility level are discussed.

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 2023

Between 2009 and 2018, the total fertility rate fell in most European countries. In 2018, fertili... more Between 2009 and 2018, the total fertility rate fell in most European countries. In 2018, fertility was below the replacement level throughout Europe. Net migration was positive for two-thirds of European countries. This paper illustrates the implications for long-run population growth of observed net migration-fertilitymortality combinations in 20 European countries over the 2009-18 period by comparing the observed net migration to a zero population growth-related 'replacement level' for net migration. The results show that in several northern and northwestern European countries, the net migration level has been consistently above this replacement level: if the net migration level and fertility and mortality rates remain constant, the population would increase. However, the findings also indicate that in all of the eastern European countries covered, the net migration level has been consistently below the net migration replacement level. The results further show that in Finland, Norway and Switzerland, the long-run implications of having constant fertility-mortality-net migration levels change from leading to population growth to leading to population decline. The opposite pattern is observed in Germany. The feasibility of preventing long-run population decreases through changes in net migration levels is discussed in light of the results.

Journal of Population Research, 2022

Immigration from a diverse range of source countries has been instrumental in increasing the dive... more Immigration from a diverse range of source countries has been instrumental in increasing the diversity of religions among Australia's population. Immigrants' religious adherences may affect their labour market outcomes and integration into the host society more broadly by influencing their accumulation of human capital, work and family-related attitudes and values, social networks, and experiences of discrimination. Such effects of religion may differ between immigrants from different countries of origin. This paper examines the effects of religion and birthplace on unemployment, labour force participation and occupational status using 2016 Australian Census data, paying particular attention to the largest Asian immigrant groups. The results show that religion has stronger effects on labour force participation for females than for males. Christians tend to have higher employment and occupational status than Muslims and Buddhists. The results show the variations in labour force participation and occupational status between people with different religions are generally wider within immigrant groups than among the Australia-born, and the pattern of variation differs between Asian country of birth groups. The study demonstrates the importance of religion to the delineation of the heterogenous paths of economic integration of immigrant populations.

My interest in the topic of this lecture arose out of an investigation of links between early lif... more My interest in the topic of this lecture arose out of an investigation of links between early lifecourse variables, including the number of siblings a person had when growing up, and later lifecourse demographic outcomes, particularly childlessness. Differences in the

The aims of this paper are threefold; (1) to forecast mortality for a wide range of more develope... more The aims of this paper are threefold; (1) to forecast mortality for a wide range of more developed countries from 2010-2050; (2) to project the effects of the forecast mortality patterns on economic support ratios assuming continuation of current fertility, migration and labour force participation; and 3) to calculate changes to labour force participation which would offset these effects. The mortality forecasts are prepared for fourteen countries using the Poisson Common Factor Model proposed by Li (2013). The mortality forecasts show that the projected gains in life expectancy are greatest in Japan, Australia and East-Central Europe, and are least in Netherlands, North America and Sweden, and correlate negatively with fertility and migration levels. The support ratios are projected to fall most over the period to 2050 in Japan, East-Central and Southern Europe, and least in Sweden and Australia. However, except for Poland, some recovery in support ratios is projected for the East-...

ABSTRACT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This study was commissioned by the New South Wales Department of Attor... more ABSTRACT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This study was commissioned by the New South Wales Department of Attorney General and Justice for the purpose of analysing the challenges and opportunities confronting the Local Court of New South Wales as a result of future population movements, and thus providing a basis on which policies regarding the Local Court might be fashioned. From its inception, the study has had the keen support of the Chief Magistrate of New South Wales, Judge Graeme Henson, whose encouragement and assistance we gratefully acknowledge. The study is significant for New South Wales because 95 per cent of all criminal matters, and 90 per cent of all civil matters, finalised in the State are determined in the Local Court. It is thus the only court that the vast majority of New South Wales residents are likely to encounter. The study is also relevant to the Australian judicial system as a whole because the Local Court is the largest court in the land—whether measured by cases lodged or the number of judicial officers—and it is thus in a prime position to lead Australian courts in workforce planning. The Premier’s Department of New South Wales (2003: 8) has described workforce planning as a process that seeks to predict future labour market needs: ‘It requires an understanding of the make-up of the current workforce, an investigation into future service needs and an analysis of the type and size of workforce required to meet them.’ The process requires agencies to identify labour demand and labour supply; analyse gaps between demand and supply; develop an action plan to address those gaps; and implement, monitor and evaluate the plan. The need for workforce planning arises for many reasons, but demographic change is always an important consideration, and hence forms the central focus of the present study. This is because changes in population size, composition and spatial distribution are significant long term determinants of labour demand and supply in many service sectors. This study accordingly seeks to identify the demand and supply of magistrates in New South Wales based on historic trends and plausible assumptions about the future. Three limitations of the study should be noted. First, the data used in the analysis come from a variety of state and federal government sources. While some of these statistics are on the public record, much of it has been provided by 6 relevant agencies specifically for this study and the analysis is necessarily dependent on the quality of the data supplied. Second, the time frame for the projections is limited to the 25 year period from 2011 to 2036. This coincides with the population projections made by the New South Wales Department of Planning, and also looks into the future about as far as historical data on magistrates allows one to look back into the past. Third, the study is confined to a single court in a single state. The conclusions cannot necessarily be extrapolated to other courts in New South Wales or to magistrates’ courts in other states, where different circumstances may lead to different assessments. The study is built on the three pillars of demographic data, criminal conviction data and magistrates’ data—the first and second being relevant to assessing the demand for magistrates, and the third to assessing the supply of magistrates. The first pillar includes projections of the New South Wales population from 2011 to 2036 prepared by the New South Wales Department of Planning. A key finding is that over the next 25 years the population of New South Wales is projected to increase by 26 per cent to 9.07 million. Geographically, increases are projected to be most rapid in outer Sydney, particularly in the North-West and South-West. The population will also age significantly (the median age will increase by 3.3 years), and the proportion of the population aged 20–34 years will fall. The second pillar makes projections of the level of criminal convictions in the Local Court from 2011 to 2036. The reason for the focus on criminal convictions is that, despite the diversity of its jurisdiction, the Local Court’s workload is overwhelmingly criminal—about 95 per cent of all new matters commenced in the Local Court are crime-related, once account is taken of the high proportion of criminal matters within the Court’s children’s jurisdiction. Projections of future criminal conviction levels are based on the assumption that criminal conviction rates (by age, sex and offence type) in 2010 will prevail in the future. This assumption appears reasonable in view of the relative stability of criminal conviction rates in recent years, but it is also necessitated by recent changes in the manner of recording criminal conviction data. A key finding is that over the next 25 years the number of criminal convictions in the Local Court is projected to increase by 16 per cent. This is less than the projected 26 per cent increase in the resident population of New South Wales because…

The New South Wales Local Court is the largest court in Australia. This study seeks to facilitate... more The New South Wales Local Court is the largest court in Australia. This study seeks to facilitate future planning for the Court by making demographic projections of the criminal workload of the Court over the next 25 years (criminal matters account for 95 per cent of its new lodgements). The study applies criminal conviction rates by age, sex and locality to population projections for the state to produce projections of the number of criminal convictions for the state and its geospatial subdivisions. These statistics are used to derive the demand for magistrates and a comparison is then made of the supply of magistrates under different scenarios. The principal finding is that, due to demographic change alone, the number of criminal convictions is projected to increase by 16 per cent by 2036, with nearly all the increase occurring in Sydney, especially in the city’s west and south west. This is less than the projected 26 per cent increase in the population of the state because the po...

In the mid-2000s the Australian Government implemented a series of changes to family policies, mo... more In the mid-2000s the Australian Government implemented a series of changes to family policies, most notably the introduction of a universal, flat-rate at birth payment and an increased subsidisation of child care. This paper examines the effect on couples’ labour supply of these policies using two complimentary empirical approaches: simulations of a dynamic utility maximisation model of a representative couple, and empirical estimation using longitudinal survey data. The results suggest that the payment of a Child Care Rebate of 50% of out-of-pocket costs has produced a modest increase in couples’ combined hours worked. The increase in couples’ hours worked which has resulted from the increased subsidisation of child care has come entirely from the wives. The effect of this regressive child care subsidy has been greater for couples in which the husband is highly educated. The

As a result of changes to the Australian industrial relations framework, long service leave benef... more As a result of changes to the Australian industrial relations framework, long service leave benefits are under review. State and Commonwealth governments are working towards the development of a new national standard for long service leave (LSL). It is, therefore, timely to re-examine the purpose of LSL. How do people use their LSL benefits? What are the main benefits of LSL for employers, employees, and the community as a whole? This paper provides a historical overview of developments, as well as a summary of current trends, and discusses some proposals for improved vesting and portability of benefits.

Australian Population Studies, 2018

Population, Space and Place, 2022

This paper explores the occupational status of immigrant birthplace-generation groups in Australi... more This paper explores the occupational status of immigrant birthplace-generation groups in Australia, a country which emphasises skills in immigrant admissions. Using 2016 data, the occupational statuses of the first, 1.5, and second generations of Australia's China, India, Malaysia, Philippines, and Vietnam birthplace-generation groups are compared to those for the main English-speaking countries, all other countries, and third-and above-generation Australians. The results show that the occupational status of the 1.5-and second-generation Asian groups considered generally exceed that for their first generation counterparts and invariably exceed that for third-and above-generation Australians, even after controlling for a range of confounding factors. For most Asian groups, the 1.5 generation's occupational status exceeds that of the second generation. Modification of the 'segmented assimilation' hypothesis to incorporate a new category of 'hyper-selective differentiation' is proposed to capture the extraordinary upward occupational mobility of most 1.5and second-generation Asian groups in Australia.

Population, Space and Place, 2021

This paper explores the occupational status of immigrant birthplace-generation groups in Australi... more This paper explores the occupational status of immigrant birthplace-generation groups in Australia, a country which emphasises skills in immigrant admissions. Using 2016 data, the occupational statuses of the first, 1.5 and second generations of Australia's China, India, Malaysia, Philippines and Vietnam birthplace-generation groups are compared to those for the Main English-Speaking Countries, all other countries, and third and above-generation Australians. The results show that the occupational status of the 1.5 and second generation Asian groups considered generally exceeds that for their 1 st generation counterparts, and invariably exceeds that for third and above-generation Australians, even after controlling for a range of confounding factors. For most Asian groups, the 1.5 generation's occupational status exceeds that of the second generation. Modification of the 'segmented assimilation' hypothesis to incorporate a new category of 'hyper-selective differentiation' is proposed to capture the extraordinary upward occupational mobility of most 1.5 and second generation Asian groups in Australia.

European Journal of Population

Population Research and Policy Review

Journal of Population Research, Mar 1, 2006

NIUSSP, 2023

Recent decreases in fertility rates in European countries have fueled gloom and doom about the pr... more Recent decreases in fertility rates in European countries have fueled gloom and doom about the prospect of shrinking populations. As Nick Parr shows, the levels of fertility that would sustain population size differ widely across European countries with differing levels of net migration. For some of these countries the birth rate needed is far below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman. The total fertility rate (TFR) is below the 2.1 "replacement level" in every European country, after a sustained fall in two-thirds of them between 2009 and 2018 (Eurostat 2021), and it is common to see commentary on population trends along the lines of "to sustain population levels the (national) fertility rate needs to be about 2.1 births per woman" (e.g. BBC 2020, Economist 2023). Such views, however, are misconceived.

Population and Development Review, 2023

This paper brings a new perspective to the population growth implications of the low fertility le... more This paper brings a new perspective to the population growth implications of the low fertility levels of European countries. For years between 2009 and 2018, whether constant fertility, mortality, and net migration would generate long-run population growth or population decrease is indicated simply and visually by comparison of the total fertility rate (TFR) to a migration-adjusted replacement level. The results show that, when considered in combination with concurrent net migration and mortality, the population growth implication of low fertility varies between countries and over time. For Sweden, Luxembourg, Belgium, and the United Kingdom for all the years considered the fertility-mortality-migration combination is coherent with longrun population growth. For the former two countries, long-run population growth would be sustained by net migration at current levels even if fertility were to fall to very low levels. In contrast, for every Eastern European country and year considered, unchanged fertility-mortality-migration combination would lead to population decrease. The need for an alternative view of low fertility in terms of whether the TFR is above or below a migration-adjusted replacement level and the need for a migration context-specific view, as distinct from a universal best view, of the desirability of fertility level are discussed.

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 2023

Between 2009 and 2018, the total fertility rate fell in most European countries. In 2018, fertili... more Between 2009 and 2018, the total fertility rate fell in most European countries. In 2018, fertility was below the replacement level throughout Europe. Net migration was positive for two-thirds of European countries. This paper illustrates the implications for long-run population growth of observed net migration-fertilitymortality combinations in 20 European countries over the 2009-18 period by comparing the observed net migration to a zero population growth-related 'replacement level' for net migration. The results show that in several northern and northwestern European countries, the net migration level has been consistently above this replacement level: if the net migration level and fertility and mortality rates remain constant, the population would increase. However, the findings also indicate that in all of the eastern European countries covered, the net migration level has been consistently below the net migration replacement level. The results further show that in Finland, Norway and Switzerland, the long-run implications of having constant fertility-mortality-net migration levels change from leading to population growth to leading to population decline. The opposite pattern is observed in Germany. The feasibility of preventing long-run population decreases through changes in net migration levels is discussed in light of the results.

Journal of Population Research, 2022

Immigration from a diverse range of source countries has been instrumental in increasing the dive... more Immigration from a diverse range of source countries has been instrumental in increasing the diversity of religions among Australia's population. Immigrants' religious adherences may affect their labour market outcomes and integration into the host society more broadly by influencing their accumulation of human capital, work and family-related attitudes and values, social networks, and experiences of discrimination. Such effects of religion may differ between immigrants from different countries of origin. This paper examines the effects of religion and birthplace on unemployment, labour force participation and occupational status using 2016 Australian Census data, paying particular attention to the largest Asian immigrant groups. The results show that religion has stronger effects on labour force participation for females than for males. Christians tend to have higher employment and occupational status than Muslims and Buddhists. The results show the variations in labour force participation and occupational status between people with different religions are generally wider within immigrant groups than among the Australia-born, and the pattern of variation differs between Asian country of birth groups. The study demonstrates the importance of religion to the delineation of the heterogenous paths of economic integration of immigrant populations.

My interest in the topic of this lecture arose out of an investigation of links between early lif... more My interest in the topic of this lecture arose out of an investigation of links between early lifecourse variables, including the number of siblings a person had when growing up, and later lifecourse demographic outcomes, particularly childlessness. Differences in the

The aims of this paper are threefold; (1) to forecast mortality for a wide range of more develope... more The aims of this paper are threefold; (1) to forecast mortality for a wide range of more developed countries from 2010-2050; (2) to project the effects of the forecast mortality patterns on economic support ratios assuming continuation of current fertility, migration and labour force participation; and 3) to calculate changes to labour force participation which would offset these effects. The mortality forecasts are prepared for fourteen countries using the Poisson Common Factor Model proposed by Li (2013). The mortality forecasts show that the projected gains in life expectancy are greatest in Japan, Australia and East-Central Europe, and are least in Netherlands, North America and Sweden, and correlate negatively with fertility and migration levels. The support ratios are projected to fall most over the period to 2050 in Japan, East-Central and Southern Europe, and least in Sweden and Australia. However, except for Poland, some recovery in support ratios is projected for the East-...

ABSTRACT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This study was commissioned by the New South Wales Department of Attor... more ABSTRACT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This study was commissioned by the New South Wales Department of Attorney General and Justice for the purpose of analysing the challenges and opportunities confronting the Local Court of New South Wales as a result of future population movements, and thus providing a basis on which policies regarding the Local Court might be fashioned. From its inception, the study has had the keen support of the Chief Magistrate of New South Wales, Judge Graeme Henson, whose encouragement and assistance we gratefully acknowledge. The study is significant for New South Wales because 95 per cent of all criminal matters, and 90 per cent of all civil matters, finalised in the State are determined in the Local Court. It is thus the only court that the vast majority of New South Wales residents are likely to encounter. The study is also relevant to the Australian judicial system as a whole because the Local Court is the largest court in the land—whether measured by cases lodged or the number of judicial officers—and it is thus in a prime position to lead Australian courts in workforce planning. The Premier’s Department of New South Wales (2003: 8) has described workforce planning as a process that seeks to predict future labour market needs: ‘It requires an understanding of the make-up of the current workforce, an investigation into future service needs and an analysis of the type and size of workforce required to meet them.’ The process requires agencies to identify labour demand and labour supply; analyse gaps between demand and supply; develop an action plan to address those gaps; and implement, monitor and evaluate the plan. The need for workforce planning arises for many reasons, but demographic change is always an important consideration, and hence forms the central focus of the present study. This is because changes in population size, composition and spatial distribution are significant long term determinants of labour demand and supply in many service sectors. This study accordingly seeks to identify the demand and supply of magistrates in New South Wales based on historic trends and plausible assumptions about the future. Three limitations of the study should be noted. First, the data used in the analysis come from a variety of state and federal government sources. While some of these statistics are on the public record, much of it has been provided by 6 relevant agencies specifically for this study and the analysis is necessarily dependent on the quality of the data supplied. Second, the time frame for the projections is limited to the 25 year period from 2011 to 2036. This coincides with the population projections made by the New South Wales Department of Planning, and also looks into the future about as far as historical data on magistrates allows one to look back into the past. Third, the study is confined to a single court in a single state. The conclusions cannot necessarily be extrapolated to other courts in New South Wales or to magistrates’ courts in other states, where different circumstances may lead to different assessments. The study is built on the three pillars of demographic data, criminal conviction data and magistrates’ data—the first and second being relevant to assessing the demand for magistrates, and the third to assessing the supply of magistrates. The first pillar includes projections of the New South Wales population from 2011 to 2036 prepared by the New South Wales Department of Planning. A key finding is that over the next 25 years the population of New South Wales is projected to increase by 26 per cent to 9.07 million. Geographically, increases are projected to be most rapid in outer Sydney, particularly in the North-West and South-West. The population will also age significantly (the median age will increase by 3.3 years), and the proportion of the population aged 20–34 years will fall. The second pillar makes projections of the level of criminal convictions in the Local Court from 2011 to 2036. The reason for the focus on criminal convictions is that, despite the diversity of its jurisdiction, the Local Court’s workload is overwhelmingly criminal—about 95 per cent of all new matters commenced in the Local Court are crime-related, once account is taken of the high proportion of criminal matters within the Court’s children’s jurisdiction. Projections of future criminal conviction levels are based on the assumption that criminal conviction rates (by age, sex and offence type) in 2010 will prevail in the future. This assumption appears reasonable in view of the relative stability of criminal conviction rates in recent years, but it is also necessitated by recent changes in the manner of recording criminal conviction data. A key finding is that over the next 25 years the number of criminal convictions in the Local Court is projected to increase by 16 per cent. This is less than the projected 26 per cent increase in the resident population of New South Wales because…

The New South Wales Local Court is the largest court in Australia. This study seeks to facilitate... more The New South Wales Local Court is the largest court in Australia. This study seeks to facilitate future planning for the Court by making demographic projections of the criminal workload of the Court over the next 25 years (criminal matters account for 95 per cent of its new lodgements). The study applies criminal conviction rates by age, sex and locality to population projections for the state to produce projections of the number of criminal convictions for the state and its geospatial subdivisions. These statistics are used to derive the demand for magistrates and a comparison is then made of the supply of magistrates under different scenarios. The principal finding is that, due to demographic change alone, the number of criminal convictions is projected to increase by 16 per cent by 2036, with nearly all the increase occurring in Sydney, especially in the city’s west and south west. This is less than the projected 26 per cent increase in the population of the state because the po...

In the mid-2000s the Australian Government implemented a series of changes to family policies, mo... more In the mid-2000s the Australian Government implemented a series of changes to family policies, most notably the introduction of a universal, flat-rate at birth payment and an increased subsidisation of child care. This paper examines the effect on couples’ labour supply of these policies using two complimentary empirical approaches: simulations of a dynamic utility maximisation model of a representative couple, and empirical estimation using longitudinal survey data. The results suggest that the payment of a Child Care Rebate of 50% of out-of-pocket costs has produced a modest increase in couples’ combined hours worked. The increase in couples’ hours worked which has resulted from the increased subsidisation of child care has come entirely from the wives. The effect of this regressive child care subsidy has been greater for couples in which the husband is highly educated. The

As a result of changes to the Australian industrial relations framework, long service leave benef... more As a result of changes to the Australian industrial relations framework, long service leave benefits are under review. State and Commonwealth governments are working towards the development of a new national standard for long service leave (LSL). It is, therefore, timely to re-examine the purpose of LSL. How do people use their LSL benefits? What are the main benefits of LSL for employers, employees, and the community as a whole? This paper provides a historical overview of developments, as well as a summary of current trends, and discusses some proposals for improved vesting and portability of benefits.

Australian Population Studies, 2018

Population, Space and Place, 2022

This paper explores the occupational status of immigrant birthplace-generation groups in Australi... more This paper explores the occupational status of immigrant birthplace-generation groups in Australia, a country which emphasises skills in immigrant admissions. Using 2016 data, the occupational statuses of the first, 1.5, and second generations of Australia's China, India, Malaysia, Philippines, and Vietnam birthplace-generation groups are compared to those for the main English-speaking countries, all other countries, and third-and above-generation Australians. The results show that the occupational status of the 1.5-and second-generation Asian groups considered generally exceed that for their first generation counterparts and invariably exceed that for third-and above-generation Australians, even after controlling for a range of confounding factors. For most Asian groups, the 1.5 generation's occupational status exceeds that of the second generation. Modification of the 'segmented assimilation' hypothesis to incorporate a new category of 'hyper-selective differentiation' is proposed to capture the extraordinary upward occupational mobility of most 1.5and second-generation Asian groups in Australia.

Population, Space and Place, 2021

This paper explores the occupational status of immigrant birthplace-generation groups in Australi... more This paper explores the occupational status of immigrant birthplace-generation groups in Australia, a country which emphasises skills in immigrant admissions. Using 2016 data, the occupational statuses of the first, 1.5 and second generations of Australia's China, India, Malaysia, Philippines and Vietnam birthplace-generation groups are compared to those for the Main English-Speaking Countries, all other countries, and third and above-generation Australians. The results show that the occupational status of the 1.5 and second generation Asian groups considered generally exceeds that for their 1 st generation counterparts, and invariably exceeds that for third and above-generation Australians, even after controlling for a range of confounding factors. For most Asian groups, the 1.5 generation's occupational status exceeds that of the second generation. Modification of the 'segmented assimilation' hypothesis to incorporate a new category of 'hyper-selective differentiation' is proposed to capture the extraordinary upward occupational mobility of most 1.5 and second generation Asian groups in Australia.

European Journal of Population

Population Research and Policy Review

Journal of Population Research, Mar 1, 2006

Wittgenstein Centre Conference on Causes and Consequences of Depopulation in Vienna, Austria, 2021

This paper examines the differing long run population growth prospects of countries with below (c... more This paper examines the differing long run population growth prospects of countries with below (conventional) replacement level fertility and positive net migration. For individual years between 2009 and 2018 for nine European countries, it compares the TFR to the a replacement level which is adjusted to consider current migration, developed by Parr (2021). Results show in all or almost all years for Sweden, Norway and Switzerland the TFR is above the migration-adjusted replacement level, whilst for Hungary and Italy the TFR is below it. Germany's TFR rose from below migration-adjusted replacement to above it, whilst Finland's TFR fell from above migration-adjusted replacement to below it. The results show the population growth implication growth implication of an NRR below 1.0, when considered in combination with concurrent net migration and mortality, varies between countries and over time.

This paper examines how the retirement savings (known in Australia as superannuation) of Australi... more This paper examines how the retirement savings (known in Australia as superannuation)
of Australian women and men vary according to the numbers of children they have. In
Australia women have historically tended to participate in the labour force less and earn
less income than men due to a range of legal, economic and social barriers (Evans 1996).
Despite the progressive removal of these barriers over time, they continue to do so (ABS
2005). Women also have tended to have less superannuation than men (Ferris and Olsberg 2001; ABS 2001; Kelly 2006). One of the contributory factors to women’s lack of superannuation has undoubtedly been their loss of earnings from having children

Macquarie University, 2018

The Religion, Education and Population (REPstats for short) project was established to provide fr... more The Religion, Education and Population (REPstats for short) project was established to provide free online access to official data for the former British colony now Australian state of New South Wales. Our aim is to make data from as far back as 1821 available in convenient, easy-to-use 21st century formats for the benefit of researchers and the wider community. We hope our project will help to promote a better understanding of the history of the people of New South Wales, particularly the changes in their total number and location, their religious adherences, and their educational participation and attainment.

The project has been developed and funded jointly by the Catholic Education Commission of New South Wales (CECNSW) and Macquarie University. Initially this was under Macquarie University's Enterprise Partnership Scheme. Subsequent financial support was provided by CECNSW and though a Macquarie University Research Infrastructure Scheme (RIS) grant.

The data are drawn from 90 boxes of statistical publications which were given to CECNSW by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. For many of our data sources few hard copies remain and their access is restricted. This project will make them easily accessible to all. In the REPstats data we have endeavoured to retain the nomenclature used in the source publications, which we believe helps to illustrate the social and statistical constructs of the times.

REPstats is a work-in-progress: we anticipate in the future there will be extensive further releases of spreadsheets of data and a significant extension of the range of time series data which can be accessed using "Graphs and Tables". Users may use the "Sign Up" facility to ensure they will be informed when new data are made available.