Patterson Ekeocha - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by Patterson Ekeocha
FIIB Business Review, Jan 5, 2024
SAGE Open
Following the need for more recent rigorous empirical evidence on the role of institutions at sec... more Following the need for more recent rigorous empirical evidence on the role of institutions at sectoral level as well as the conflicting empirical evidences on the institutions-growth relationship in Africa, this study investigated the sectoral impacts of institutional quality in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The study also revisited the role of institutions in the aggregate economy. The system GMM estimation procedure and a panel of 42 SSA countries were used over the period 2010 to 2018. The results indicate that contrary to the widely held view that institutions foster growth and development, the role of institutional quality in sectoral and aggregate economic performance in SSA generally remained muted. However, the results indicate that initial level of real GDP and labor are robust drivers of growth, particularly in the aggregate economy. The study therefore concludes that the sub-region requires institutional reform, enhanced human capital development and capital accumulation to d...
Bussecon Review of Social Sciences (2687-2285), 2019
This paper investigated this disparity in the literature using Nigeria data from 1980 to 2016. In... more This paper investigated this disparity in the literature using Nigeria data from 1980 to 2016. In doing this, energy consumption was disaggregated, and their impacts on economic growth investigated using a modified Ordinary Least Square technique which allows for time gaps in the model. It was observed that only renewable energy impacted on economic growth in the long-run whereas non-renewable energy component impacted on economic growth in the short-run. Therefore, the study sees the impact of energy consumption on economic growth to be indistinct in Nigeria within the period under review. This further buttresses the need for improvement in electricity production and distribution in Nigeria. Given the importance of energy consumption on productivity, the study, therefore, suggests policies/measures that will bring about increasing the supply or improvement of energy production in the country.
Economic and Financial Review, 2017
This Article is brought to you for free and open access by CBN Institutional Repository. It has b... more This Article is brought to you for free and open access by CBN Institutional Repository. It has been accepted for inclusion in Economic and Financial Review by an authorized editor of CBN Institutional Repository. For more information, please contact
Economic and Financial Review, 2017
Fiscal deficit has remained a predominant occurrence at both the Federal and state government lev... more Fiscal deficit has remained a predominant occurrence at both the Federal and state government levels, and this has become a source of concern for economic managers. At the individual state level, a quarter of the state governments consistently ran deficit for more than six consecutive years, from the period 2007 to 2014. More importantly, the combined overall fiscal balance of the state governments has resulted frequently in deficit in the past two decades. Fiscal deficit is not bad in itself, but most of the state governments are running fiscal deficit to sustain recurrent expenses, rather than infrastructure development. Available studies on the determinants of fiscal deficit have not considered cost of governance as an important determinant. Thus, the authors investigated the effect of cost of governance and other determinants, on fiscal deficit across the Nigerian states for the period 2008-2015. Using the dynamic panel of the Arellano-Bond (Difference) GMM Estimators in the Keynesian framework, the results revealed that cost of governance had fueled fiscal deficit at the state level in Nigeria. It also showed that inflation, population size and economic growth had significant impact on fiscal deficit across the Nigerian states. The authors underscored the need for strengthening public financial management reforms, particularly, the Fiscal Responsibility Act, the Medium Term Expenditure Framework, and the treasury single account, at the sub-national level to ensure fiscal discipline. This will enable the state governments to be more prudent and ensure that fiscal deficit is geared towards infrastructure development.
European Journal of Business and Management, 2012
The Nigerian economy witnessed a significant growth turning point from the early 2000s after it r... more The Nigerian economy witnessed a significant growth turning point from the early 2000s after it returned to democratic rule in 1997. But the strong economic growth posted by the country has not served to substantially reduce poverty, inequality, unemployment, exchange rate, inflation and interest rate spread. Consequently, there is a damping effect on consumer confidence, hence low spending. Fixed effect panel model was used to underscore the importance of consumer confidence and expectations in household spending, using data from the CBN survey of consumer expectation across the six geopolitical zones from 2009-2011. The result shows that consumer confidence, current income, income expectation, expected change in the prices of food and durables, and exchange rate are the determinants of consumption in Nigeria. Surprisingly, the short run MPC is substantially larger than the long run MPC, indicative of low savings, perhaps resulting from loss of confidence in interest rate among the households.
This study tries to ascertain the long run determinants of foreign portfolio investment (FPI) in ... more This study tries to ascertain the long run determinants of foreign portfolio investment (FPI) in Nigeria such that appropriate policies will be pursued to attract same in the long run. FPI has grown recently in proportion relative to other types of capital inflows to Nigeria before the wake of global financial crisis. Incidentally, there is no empirical regularity regarding the determinants of FPI. This study tries to add to the stock of knowledge by modelling the long-run determinants of FPI in Nigeria over the period of 1981-2010 converted into quarterly series. The variables considered are, market capitalization, real exchange rate, real interest rate, real gross domestic product and trade openness. The study applies time series analysis specifically the finite distributed lag model and discovers that FPI has a positive long-run relationship with market capitalization, and trade openness in Nigeria. Ongoing efforts therefore to sanitize the capital market should be vigorously pursued.
Central Bank of Nigeria Journal of Applied Statistics
This paper examines spillover effects of U.S monetary policy on macroeconomic fundamentals in Nig... more This paper examines spillover effects of U.S monetary policy on macroeconomic fundamentals in Nigeria from January 1985 to December 2018. The study period is partitioned to account for conventional monetary policy (CMP) period, January 1985 to August 2007 and unconventional monetary policy (UMP) period, September 2007 to December 2018. Guided by relevant pre-tests, we find BEKK-VARMA-CCCMGARCH as the most appropriate model. The study finds significant spillover effects of U.S CMP and UMP on interest rate, exchange rate and inflation rate in Nigeria. We, however, observe that while CMP may be a significant accelerator of shocks persistence on interest rates and exchange rates, the extent to which the UMP accelerate shocks in inflation rate tends to vary for different measures of quantitative easing. Thus, in addition to past own shocks and past own conditional variance of these macro fundamentals, understanding their dynamics cannot be in isolation of their vulnerability to external ...
Oceania’s extra-trade performance is quite considerable relative to its intra-trade. This indicat... more Oceania’s extra-trade performance is quite considerable relative to its intra-trade. This indicates that the Oceania may be susceptible to trade shocks originating from its main trading partners in the global economy. Given that shocks often occur, the presence of such enormous and dynamic external sector makes economic growth in the Oceania vulnerable to shocks. This study, therefore, investigates the dynamics of trade shock transmission between the Oceania and the rest of the global economy. The study constructed generalized trade linkage measures at various degrees of aggregation. The results indicate that the trade linkage between the Oceania and the rest of the global economy is quite substantial, with the total trade linkage index having a mean value of 83%. The results also show that USA, China, Canada, France, Germany, and Japan exert dominant influence on Oceania’s trade and therefore have the potential to spread trade shocks to it. Overall, the findings show that economies...
This study investigated trade shock transmission between Africa, the BRIC and the rest of the glo... more This study investigated trade shock transmission between Africa, the BRIC and the rest of the global economy with a view to understanding the likely disposition of African economies towards trade shocks. The study extended the network approach of Diebold and Yilmaz (2009) by constructing generalized trade linkage measures at various degrees of aggregation. The results indicate that the trade linkage between Africa and the rest of the global economy is quite substantial, with the total trade linkage index having an average value of 87%. We find also that China, USA, UK, Japan, EU, and Canada dominate Africa’s trade and therefore have the potential to spread trade shocks to it. The results further indicate that apart from the BRIC, other regional trading blocs such as Asia, the Americas, and Europe play influential roles in Africa’s trade. Overall, the findings show that African economies are predominantly net receivers of trade shocks originating from the aforementioned dominant sour...
Developing Country Studies, 2012
The paper is an analysis of the federal budget process in Nigeria. It brings to the fore the nagg... more The paper is an analysis of the federal budget process in Nigeria. It brings to the fore the nagging issue of late budget submission by the executive to the National Assembly and the attendant weak budget performance. The paper reiterates the importance of government budgetting in setting priorities and influencing the economy and thus posits that the ability to make timely and sensible fiscal choices is one of the hallmarks of good governance. Incidentally, timely budgeting is far from the norm in Nigeria and the extant laws are unable to address this important fiscal challenge. Unlike other papers on the subject matter, this analysis advances a framework that makes it easier to identify the avenues through which the Executive (President) or the Parliament can and do bungle the various elements of the budget process. The paper concludes by proffering institutional reforms that will correct the identified lapses if timeliness is to be achieved in the budgeting process thus, making budget implementation effective.
This is a study of the properties of the Nigeria's tax system particularly the bases of the compa... more This is a study of the properties of the Nigeria's tax system particularly the bases of the company income tax, value added tax and personal income tax. The results indicate that their bases are not stable (not persistent and volatile). However, while the bases of the company income tax and personal income tax are more sensitive to cyclical swings (current state of the economy over time), that of the value added tax (VAT) is not. The policy implications of these findings support the recent government tax policy reform of a shift in focus in the tax system from direct taxation to indirect taxation. With the tax base of VAT being insensitive to the current state of the economy, the revenue therefrom will not drop sharply when the economy slows down. It will also shield the government from budgetary shortfalls as it will likely cushion against sharp declines in aggregate tax revenues.
International Conference on Applied Economics …, Jan 1, 2008
Just as trade flows result from individuals and countries seeking to maximize their well-being by... more Just as trade flows result from individuals and countries seeking to maximize their well-being by exploiting their own comparative advantage, so too, are capital flows the result of individuals and countries seeking to make themselves better off, moving accumulated assets to wherever they are likely to be most productive. One of such capital flows is the foreign portfolio investment. Foreign portfolio investment (FPI) though volatile in nature is an important source of fund to support investment in an economy that has a wide saving-investment gap like Nigeria. Incidentally, it has grown recently in proportion relative to other types of capital inflow to Nigeria. Several studies have tried to ascertain the determinants of FPI as well as the impacts of such flows on the economy. However, this study tries to model the long-run determinants of FPI in Nigeria over the period of 1986-2006 converted into quarterly series. The variables used are market capitalization, sovereign risk premium, real exchange rate, level of institutional quality, investment, real interest rate, level of financial openness and trade openness. The study applies time series analysis and discovers that there is a long run relationship among some of the variables applied. This is consistent with most findings that time series data are non mean reversing and therefore can only be applied in their levels of stationarity. Obtained results illustrate that FPI is co-integrated with real rate of return on investments in the capital market, real interest rate, and investment implying that these variables are bound together in the long run. The results indicate that FPI is positively related to real rate of return on investments in the capital market, real interest rate, and investment. On the other hand it is negatively related to real exchange rate, market capitalization, trade degree of openness and institutional quality in Nigeria.
FIIB Business Review, Jan 5, 2024
SAGE Open
Following the need for more recent rigorous empirical evidence on the role of institutions at sec... more Following the need for more recent rigorous empirical evidence on the role of institutions at sectoral level as well as the conflicting empirical evidences on the institutions-growth relationship in Africa, this study investigated the sectoral impacts of institutional quality in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The study also revisited the role of institutions in the aggregate economy. The system GMM estimation procedure and a panel of 42 SSA countries were used over the period 2010 to 2018. The results indicate that contrary to the widely held view that institutions foster growth and development, the role of institutional quality in sectoral and aggregate economic performance in SSA generally remained muted. However, the results indicate that initial level of real GDP and labor are robust drivers of growth, particularly in the aggregate economy. The study therefore concludes that the sub-region requires institutional reform, enhanced human capital development and capital accumulation to d...
Bussecon Review of Social Sciences (2687-2285), 2019
This paper investigated this disparity in the literature using Nigeria data from 1980 to 2016. In... more This paper investigated this disparity in the literature using Nigeria data from 1980 to 2016. In doing this, energy consumption was disaggregated, and their impacts on economic growth investigated using a modified Ordinary Least Square technique which allows for time gaps in the model. It was observed that only renewable energy impacted on economic growth in the long-run whereas non-renewable energy component impacted on economic growth in the short-run. Therefore, the study sees the impact of energy consumption on economic growth to be indistinct in Nigeria within the period under review. This further buttresses the need for improvement in electricity production and distribution in Nigeria. Given the importance of energy consumption on productivity, the study, therefore, suggests policies/measures that will bring about increasing the supply or improvement of energy production in the country.
Economic and Financial Review, 2017
This Article is brought to you for free and open access by CBN Institutional Repository. It has b... more This Article is brought to you for free and open access by CBN Institutional Repository. It has been accepted for inclusion in Economic and Financial Review by an authorized editor of CBN Institutional Repository. For more information, please contact
Economic and Financial Review, 2017
Fiscal deficit has remained a predominant occurrence at both the Federal and state government lev... more Fiscal deficit has remained a predominant occurrence at both the Federal and state government levels, and this has become a source of concern for economic managers. At the individual state level, a quarter of the state governments consistently ran deficit for more than six consecutive years, from the period 2007 to 2014. More importantly, the combined overall fiscal balance of the state governments has resulted frequently in deficit in the past two decades. Fiscal deficit is not bad in itself, but most of the state governments are running fiscal deficit to sustain recurrent expenses, rather than infrastructure development. Available studies on the determinants of fiscal deficit have not considered cost of governance as an important determinant. Thus, the authors investigated the effect of cost of governance and other determinants, on fiscal deficit across the Nigerian states for the period 2008-2015. Using the dynamic panel of the Arellano-Bond (Difference) GMM Estimators in the Keynesian framework, the results revealed that cost of governance had fueled fiscal deficit at the state level in Nigeria. It also showed that inflation, population size and economic growth had significant impact on fiscal deficit across the Nigerian states. The authors underscored the need for strengthening public financial management reforms, particularly, the Fiscal Responsibility Act, the Medium Term Expenditure Framework, and the treasury single account, at the sub-national level to ensure fiscal discipline. This will enable the state governments to be more prudent and ensure that fiscal deficit is geared towards infrastructure development.
European Journal of Business and Management, 2012
The Nigerian economy witnessed a significant growth turning point from the early 2000s after it r... more The Nigerian economy witnessed a significant growth turning point from the early 2000s after it returned to democratic rule in 1997. But the strong economic growth posted by the country has not served to substantially reduce poverty, inequality, unemployment, exchange rate, inflation and interest rate spread. Consequently, there is a damping effect on consumer confidence, hence low spending. Fixed effect panel model was used to underscore the importance of consumer confidence and expectations in household spending, using data from the CBN survey of consumer expectation across the six geopolitical zones from 2009-2011. The result shows that consumer confidence, current income, income expectation, expected change in the prices of food and durables, and exchange rate are the determinants of consumption in Nigeria. Surprisingly, the short run MPC is substantially larger than the long run MPC, indicative of low savings, perhaps resulting from loss of confidence in interest rate among the households.
This study tries to ascertain the long run determinants of foreign portfolio investment (FPI) in ... more This study tries to ascertain the long run determinants of foreign portfolio investment (FPI) in Nigeria such that appropriate policies will be pursued to attract same in the long run. FPI has grown recently in proportion relative to other types of capital inflows to Nigeria before the wake of global financial crisis. Incidentally, there is no empirical regularity regarding the determinants of FPI. This study tries to add to the stock of knowledge by modelling the long-run determinants of FPI in Nigeria over the period of 1981-2010 converted into quarterly series. The variables considered are, market capitalization, real exchange rate, real interest rate, real gross domestic product and trade openness. The study applies time series analysis specifically the finite distributed lag model and discovers that FPI has a positive long-run relationship with market capitalization, and trade openness in Nigeria. Ongoing efforts therefore to sanitize the capital market should be vigorously pursued.
Central Bank of Nigeria Journal of Applied Statistics
This paper examines spillover effects of U.S monetary policy on macroeconomic fundamentals in Nig... more This paper examines spillover effects of U.S monetary policy on macroeconomic fundamentals in Nigeria from January 1985 to December 2018. The study period is partitioned to account for conventional monetary policy (CMP) period, January 1985 to August 2007 and unconventional monetary policy (UMP) period, September 2007 to December 2018. Guided by relevant pre-tests, we find BEKK-VARMA-CCCMGARCH as the most appropriate model. The study finds significant spillover effects of U.S CMP and UMP on interest rate, exchange rate and inflation rate in Nigeria. We, however, observe that while CMP may be a significant accelerator of shocks persistence on interest rates and exchange rates, the extent to which the UMP accelerate shocks in inflation rate tends to vary for different measures of quantitative easing. Thus, in addition to past own shocks and past own conditional variance of these macro fundamentals, understanding their dynamics cannot be in isolation of their vulnerability to external ...
Oceania’s extra-trade performance is quite considerable relative to its intra-trade. This indicat... more Oceania’s extra-trade performance is quite considerable relative to its intra-trade. This indicates that the Oceania may be susceptible to trade shocks originating from its main trading partners in the global economy. Given that shocks often occur, the presence of such enormous and dynamic external sector makes economic growth in the Oceania vulnerable to shocks. This study, therefore, investigates the dynamics of trade shock transmission between the Oceania and the rest of the global economy. The study constructed generalized trade linkage measures at various degrees of aggregation. The results indicate that the trade linkage between the Oceania and the rest of the global economy is quite substantial, with the total trade linkage index having a mean value of 83%. The results also show that USA, China, Canada, France, Germany, and Japan exert dominant influence on Oceania’s trade and therefore have the potential to spread trade shocks to it. Overall, the findings show that economies...
This study investigated trade shock transmission between Africa, the BRIC and the rest of the glo... more This study investigated trade shock transmission between Africa, the BRIC and the rest of the global economy with a view to understanding the likely disposition of African economies towards trade shocks. The study extended the network approach of Diebold and Yilmaz (2009) by constructing generalized trade linkage measures at various degrees of aggregation. The results indicate that the trade linkage between Africa and the rest of the global economy is quite substantial, with the total trade linkage index having an average value of 87%. We find also that China, USA, UK, Japan, EU, and Canada dominate Africa’s trade and therefore have the potential to spread trade shocks to it. The results further indicate that apart from the BRIC, other regional trading blocs such as Asia, the Americas, and Europe play influential roles in Africa’s trade. Overall, the findings show that African economies are predominantly net receivers of trade shocks originating from the aforementioned dominant sour...
Developing Country Studies, 2012
The paper is an analysis of the federal budget process in Nigeria. It brings to the fore the nagg... more The paper is an analysis of the federal budget process in Nigeria. It brings to the fore the nagging issue of late budget submission by the executive to the National Assembly and the attendant weak budget performance. The paper reiterates the importance of government budgetting in setting priorities and influencing the economy and thus posits that the ability to make timely and sensible fiscal choices is one of the hallmarks of good governance. Incidentally, timely budgeting is far from the norm in Nigeria and the extant laws are unable to address this important fiscal challenge. Unlike other papers on the subject matter, this analysis advances a framework that makes it easier to identify the avenues through which the Executive (President) or the Parliament can and do bungle the various elements of the budget process. The paper concludes by proffering institutional reforms that will correct the identified lapses if timeliness is to be achieved in the budgeting process thus, making budget implementation effective.
This is a study of the properties of the Nigeria's tax system particularly the bases of the compa... more This is a study of the properties of the Nigeria's tax system particularly the bases of the company income tax, value added tax and personal income tax. The results indicate that their bases are not stable (not persistent and volatile). However, while the bases of the company income tax and personal income tax are more sensitive to cyclical swings (current state of the economy over time), that of the value added tax (VAT) is not. The policy implications of these findings support the recent government tax policy reform of a shift in focus in the tax system from direct taxation to indirect taxation. With the tax base of VAT being insensitive to the current state of the economy, the revenue therefrom will not drop sharply when the economy slows down. It will also shield the government from budgetary shortfalls as it will likely cushion against sharp declines in aggregate tax revenues.
International Conference on Applied Economics …, Jan 1, 2008
Just as trade flows result from individuals and countries seeking to maximize their well-being by... more Just as trade flows result from individuals and countries seeking to maximize their well-being by exploiting their own comparative advantage, so too, are capital flows the result of individuals and countries seeking to make themselves better off, moving accumulated assets to wherever they are likely to be most productive. One of such capital flows is the foreign portfolio investment. Foreign portfolio investment (FPI) though volatile in nature is an important source of fund to support investment in an economy that has a wide saving-investment gap like Nigeria. Incidentally, it has grown recently in proportion relative to other types of capital inflow to Nigeria. Several studies have tried to ascertain the determinants of FPI as well as the impacts of such flows on the economy. However, this study tries to model the long-run determinants of FPI in Nigeria over the period of 1986-2006 converted into quarterly series. The variables used are market capitalization, sovereign risk premium, real exchange rate, level of institutional quality, investment, real interest rate, level of financial openness and trade openness. The study applies time series analysis and discovers that there is a long run relationship among some of the variables applied. This is consistent with most findings that time series data are non mean reversing and therefore can only be applied in their levels of stationarity. Obtained results illustrate that FPI is co-integrated with real rate of return on investments in the capital market, real interest rate, and investment implying that these variables are bound together in the long run. The results indicate that FPI is positively related to real rate of return on investments in the capital market, real interest rate, and investment. On the other hand it is negatively related to real exchange rate, market capitalization, trade degree of openness and institutional quality in Nigeria.