Khuram Iqbal | National Defence University-NDU- Islamabad- Pakistan (original) (raw)

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Papers by Khuram Iqbal

Journal of Policing, Intelligence and Counter-Terrorism, 2021

Definitional impasse over the issue of violent extremism has adversely affected the scholarly end... more Definitional impasse over the issue of violent extremism has adversely affected the scholarly endeavours to develop a systematic understanding of the threat and policy interventions to counter the phenomenon in its violent and non-violent manifestations. In the absence of clearly defined concepts including ‘radicalisation’, much of the Counter-Terrorism Studies (CTS) research remains ‘subjective’ and politically expedient. This article contributes to the debate on ‘who is radical?’ in the context of Pakistan and ‘how social concepts like radicalisation can be quantified for meaningful scaling of radicalisation and deradicalization?’. The survey of six public sector universities of Islamabad with secular reputation identifies how university youth is vulnerable to radicalism and stresses the need for launching an effective counter-radicalisation campaigns on the university campuses.

Journal of Security and Strategic Analysis, 2021

This paper seeks to dissect the trajectory of Pakistan's elite responses on China-Pakistan Econom... more This paper seeks to dissect the trajectory of Pakistan's elite responses on China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a lynchpin of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). It is argued that CPEC has created frictions within the Pakistani elite, which historically has been more aligned to the US. Using Elite theory, the paper attempts to ascertain why an influential segment of the country's ruling class opposes Beijing's increasing role in the country's strategic, economic, and cultural spheres. Apparently, Pakistan's polity seems euphoric on the rise of China, but a deeply entrenched colonial legacy and a long history of association with the United States still holds sway in Pakistan's governing elite, media houses and civil society organizations. This could possibly hinder Chinese long-term ambitions in Pakistan.

United by Violence, Divided by Cause? A Comparison of Drivers of Radicalisation in Asia and Europe, 2020

The chapter points out that regional political developments, such as the possible withdrawal of f... more The chapter points out that regional political developments, such as the possible withdrawal of foreign forces from Afghanistan, military escalation on the issue of Iran and enhanced Chinese presence positively influences these organisations’ abilities to recuperate ideologically and operationally from battlefield losses since 2013. Thereafter, I will show how the government’s de-radicalisation and counter-terrorism measures might impact the framework conditions of violent groups for the application of strategic violence. In the course of the paper, I will therefore look specifically into the following questions: How have country-wide anti-terrorism campaigns impacted terrorist organisations falling in neo-jihadist, religious-nationalist, sectarian and ethno-nationalist categories since 2013? How might the proposed withdrawal of foreign forces impact TTP, ISIS and al Qaeda? How likely are Shia militant outfits, such as Zainabyoon and Sipah-e-Muhammad, to respond to any military confrontation involving Iran? What are the challenges and prospects of mainstreaming Jamat-u-Dawah?

Pakistan Horizon, 2017

In 1948, the people of Kashmir revolted against the state's forceful annexation with India. But t... more In 1948, the people of Kashmir revolted against the state's forceful annexation with India. But the armed insurrection met with defeat as the rebels lost a major chunk of Kashmir's territory to India. This paper aims to analyse the factors leading to the failure of the first Kashmir insurrection in light of 'The Prerequisites for a Successful Insurgency' put forth by David Galula, the preeminent expert on counter-insurgency and guerrilla warfare. Application of Galula's framework reveals the presence of all four rudiments including a well-defined cause, weaknesses of counter-insurgents, suitable geographic conditions and outside support from Pakistani tribesmen. But the insurrection failed mainly due to undisciplined tribal fighters, their lack of understanding of the human and geographic terrain of Kashmir, serious logistical issues experienced by indigenous Kashmiri fighters and unfavourable weather conditions. The paper advocates for revisiting Galula's framework in light of insurgencies in South Asia, a region that he might have overlooked while theorizing the phenomenon.

Journal of Security and Strategic Analysis, 2019

Regardless of increasing number of organized violent attacks by far right, non-Islamist militants... more Regardless of increasing number of organized violent attacks by far right, non-Islamist militants across the globe, Western policy and scholarly discourse on terrorism remains excessively focused on violent extremism among Muslims. South Asia is no exception, where regional security agenda is often constructed by disproportionately highlighting Islamist extremism and conveniently ignoring Saffron terrorism notwithstanding the second political triumph of Bharatya Janata Party (BJP) under Modi, the political face of Hindu fundamentalists in India. This paper seeks to offer an alternative perspective by focusing on the rising threat of Hindu extremists and how their ascendance to and consolidation of political power in New Delhi will impact South Asian regional security. Using adversarial threat analysis framework, the paper first establishes Hindutva terror as a potent threat, challenging the apologists' notions that tend to downplay this new wave of violence by terming it "acts conducted by isolated fringe elements". The paper also highlights growing acknowledgement of the threat among academia but reluctance of policy makers in and around India to acknowledge Hindutva as a threat, which could further complicate the regional political environment. Since anti-Pakistanism is central to Hindutva ideology, there is a need for Islamabad to adopt countermeasures ad sensitize the world about growing role of Hindu fundamentalists in Indian policy-making process. The paper concludes that the Saffronisation of violence and politics in nuclear-armed India is irreversible thus it will continue to impact South Asian security in most profound manner in the decades to come.

Pakistan Horizon, 2019

Public perceptions matter, especially when it comes to mega developmental projects like CPEC, whi... more Public perceptions matter, especially when it comes to mega developmental projects like CPEC, which can possibly transform the socio-economic and political landscape of a country of more than 200 million people. This paper focuses on the interpretation or perception of China and CPEC among the Pakistani public in real and virtual worlds. The study, based on a survey of a random sample of 385 participants, reflects widespread public support for CPEC as 72 per cent respondents actually believed that CPEC will bring benefits to Pakistan. The data collected in October 2017 indicates that the majority of Pakistanis consider China as a more trustworthy partner than the US, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Iran. Regarding the nature of Pak-China relations, 55 per cent of the respondents termed China-Pakistan friendship as 'interest-based,' which indicates that pragmatism, not emotions, drive the pro-China sentiment among the educated Pakistani public and that the states' narrative of 'higher than the mountains, deeper than the ocean' is received with caution. Analyzing how this project is perceived on social media by various sections of society will help in devising the practicality of this project for the two concerned nations.

COJOURN , 2017

Territorial losses of Daesh, or the Islamic State (IS), in Iraq and Syria have led many to conjur... more Territorial losses of Daesh, or the Islamic State (IS), in Iraq and Syria have led many to conjure the demise of the global terrorist organization. Conditions on ground, however, are ripe for the recuperation of the organization. The presence of extra-regional players, the widening Shia-Sunni divide, the failure of Iraqi and Syrian governments to stabilize the conflict-hit regions and a timely decision by Daesh to activate its sleeper cells in different parts of Europe, Asia and Africa could very much benefit the organization in recovering from battlefield losses or heralding the fourth wave of global jihad. This, then, could further augment the global implications of the rise of IS, including revival of Cold War era "proxy-ism", refugee crises leading to fissures among the community of European nations, the intensification of the sectarian conflict in the Muslim world and "lone wolf" terrorism in the West. The paper seeks to map the possibility of Daesh's recuperation in light of the "terrorist lifecycle" and how this would impact the global peace in general, and in South Asia in particular.

Journal of Policing, Intelligence and Counter-Terrorism, 2019

Counter-narrative is considered an integral component of soft counter-terrorism approaches. This ... more Counter-narrative is considered an integral component of soft counter-terrorism approaches. This paper examines the case study of Egypt and Pakistan, while keeping the former as a reference point to critically evaluate the counter-narrative campaign of the latter in light of Aristotle’s classic work ‘Rhetoric’. Credibility and character of messenger, according to Aristotle, is the most potent weapon in one’s rhetorical arsenal. The paper argues that the public narrative produced and disseminated by the state of Pakistan contains all necessary elements of eﬀective persuasion sans credible messengers, who should ideally come from the peer group of target audience. Besides highlighting the need for a credible messenger, we propose some policy interventions aimed at projecting the state as a responsible and motherly entity. The paper concludes that the state narrative can successfully recapture its political and moral legitimacy through portraying her role not only as the custodian of Islam and defender of Pakistani Muslims but also the provider of equal economic opportunities, good governance and swift justice

For decades, South Asian politics has remained realist-oriented with little or no room for libera... more For decades, South Asian politics has remained realist-oriented with little or no room for liberal ideals such as regionalism. Security-centric approach towards domestic and regional affairs has no doubt curtailed South Asia‘s potential, turning it into the sick man of rising Asia.‘ But the mega developmental projects such as the BRI could herald a new era of liberalism in the region through promoting economic interdependence and connectivity.

Pakistan Horizon , 2017

In 1948 the people of Kashmir revolted against the state’s forceful annexation with India. But th... more In 1948 the people of Kashmir revolted against the state’s forceful annexation with India. But the armed insurrection met with defeat as the rebels lost major chunk of Kashmir’s territory to India. The paper aims to analyse the factors leading to the failure of first Kashmir insurrection in light of "The Prerequisites for a Successful Insurgency" put forth by David Galula, the preeminent expert on counter-insurgency and guerrilla warfare. Application of Galula’s framework reveals the presence of all four rudiments including a well-defined cause, weaknesses of counter-insurgents, suitable geographic conditions and outside support from Pakistani tribesmen. But the insurrection failed mainly due to undisciplined tribal fighters, their lack of understanding of human and geographic terrain of Kashmir, serious logistical issues experienced by indigenous Kashmiri fighters and unfavourable weather conditions.

China International Studies

India’s opposition to the CPEC has further complicated the South Asian geopolitics. Violent extre... more India’s opposition to the CPEC has further complicated the South Asian geopolitics. Violent extremist organizations such as the Baloch Republican Army, the Jamaat-ul-Ahrar and Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, which hitherto operated purely as ideological entities, are now keen on seeking New Delhi’s patronage to fight a common enemy, i.e. Pakistan. It seems, with the inception of the CPEC and subsequent Indian opposition, that the era of ideological terrorism driven by political Islam and sense of vengeance against the West has ended and is replaced by Cold War-era “proxyism,” where different states are increasingly relying on non-state and sub-state actors to pursue their strategic and commercial interests.

Historically in Pakistan, Shiite militancy has remained reactive and selective. But with thousand... more Historically in Pakistan, Shiite militancy has remained reactive and selective. But with thousands of Pakistani Shiites being recruited and trained by Tehran, the landscape of sectarian militancy is likely to undergo a momentous transformation with a possibility of a head-on confrontation between militant fronts of the two opposing sects. This essay assesses the future impact of Shiite mobilization in Pakistan on the country and how it could transform the local sectarian conflict by fueling radicalization and increasing prospects for ISIS to penetrate and exploit local militant groups to its favor.

The Asian region is confronted by an array of traditional and non-traditional security threats em... more The Asian region is confronted by an array of traditional and non-traditional security threats emanating from natural calamities as well as man-made threats of violent extremism. Whereas non-traditional threats have led to collaborative efforts among the community of Asian nations, a cross-regional consensus on the issue of terrorism is yet to emerge. Rhetorically, Asian nations might have pledged collaborative efforts to fight violent extremism, but practically they differ on the threat definition and prioritization. Take for example the ongoing wave of terrorism in the Middle East region, where a number of regional and extra-regional players are jostling for influence and playing off one terrorist group against another. This policy, however, has backfired and led to the
emergence of new and more lethal terrorist organizations such as Daesh. This chapter seeks to examine the trends and shapes of contemporary terrorism in South Asia with a specific focus on the patterns of Daesh’s expansion from the Middle East to Pakistan,
how local terrorist organizations have responded to Daesh’s call for a global holy war and what the future holds for the group in Pakistan. Some specific questions explored
in detail are as follows:
1. What is the extent of Daesh’s penetration into the Pakistani Jihadi landscape
from December 2014 to July 2016?
2. What is the general profile of individuals and groups that have joined Daesh during
the aforementioned period?
3. How is Islamabad responding to the threat?
4. Is Daesh on the run or on the march in Pakistan?

If the ISIS is able to launch one symbolic attack in Indian Kashmir, it will have Lashkar-e-Tayeb... more If the ISIS is able to launch one symbolic attack in Indian Kashmir, it will have Lashkar-e-Tayeba and Jaish-e-Muhammad by the throat.

A short comment (written in mid 2011) on the Afghan draw-down and its implications for Pakistan a... more A short comment (written in mid 2011) on the Afghan draw-down and its implications for Pakistan and China

Suicide bombings increased in Pakistan even though the country is not under foreign occupation an... more Suicide bombings increased in Pakistan even though the country is not under foreign occupation and-barring missile strikes by US drones in the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan-only Pakistani security forces have been acting against the militants. Is this really a manifestation of rising Islamic extremism in Pakistan, or an expression of revenge against the government’s counter-measures that are
perceived to be excessively heavy-handed, disproportionate and indiscriminate? Is suicide bombing a strategy used by desperate militant groups against a stronger enemy, or a phenomenon motivated by
extreme poverty and a sense of deprivation? Is the presence of international forces in Afghanistan a factor fueling suicide attacks in Pakistan? Why are such attacks becoming the most dominant tactic among terrorist organizations in Pakistan? This paper seeks to answer these questions.

Journal of Policing, Intelligence and Counter-Terrorism, 2021

Journal of Security and Strategic Analysis, 2021

United by Violence, Divided by Cause? A Comparison of Drivers of Radicalisation in Asia and Europe, 2020

Pakistan Horizon, 2017

Journal of Security and Strategic Analysis, 2019

Pakistan Horizon, 2019

COJOURN , 2017

Journal of Policing, Intelligence and Counter-Terrorism, 2019

Pakistan Horizon , 2017

China International Studies

Pakistan: Terrorism Ground Zero, 2011

As made abundantly clear in the classified documents recently made public by WikiLeaks, Pakistan ... more As made abundantly clear in the classified documents recently made public by WikiLeaks, Pakistan is the keystone in the international fight against terrorism today. After the US-led coalition targeted terrorist groups operating in Afghanistan, these groups, including al Qaeda and the Taliban, relocated to the Federally Administered Tribal Area of Pakistan. From its base in this remote, inhospitable region of Pakistan, al Qaeda and its associated cells have planned, prepared, and executed numerous terrorist attacks around the world, in addition to supporting and waging insurgencies in Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen, Somalia, and elsewhere.

This book is the first detailed analysis of the myriad insurgent groups working in Pakistan. Written by well-known expert on global terrorism Rohan Gunaratna and Khuram Iqbal, a leading scholar in Pakistan, the book examines and reviews the nature, structure, and agendas of the groups, their links to activists in other countries, such as India and Iran, and the difficulties of defeating terrorism in this part of the world. Drawing on extensive field research and interviews with government officials and former terrorists, the authors argue that Pakistan faces grave and continuing pressures from within, and that without steadfast international goodwill and support, the threats of extremism, terrorism, and insurgency will continue to grow.

This timely and necessary book argues that if the international community is to win the battle against ideological extremism and operational terrorism around the world, then Pakistan should be in the vanguard of the fight.

In January 2007, the students of Lal Masjid (Red Mosque) took over the Children’s Library in Isla... more In January 2007, the students of Lal Masjid (Red Mosque) took over the Children’s Library in Islamabad in protest against the Government of Pakistan’s decision to demolish mosques and seminaries built illegally on government land. After six months of escalating tensions, the crisis culminated in an eight-day siege and eventually ended by an armed assault resulting in over a hundred casualties and even more injured. This tragic outcome of the standoff had a devastating spillover effect as it turned into a rallying cry for Islamist militancy in the country. Based on extensive field research including interviews with key actors on all sides, this book provides an in-depth analytical account of the events that unfolded during the siege, with specific emphasis on the successes and failures of the negotiation process. It outlines important lessons and practical guidelines for crisis negotiators, incident commanders, and political decision-makers in order to provide them with the necessary tools to manage possible similar crises in the future more effectively.

A multi-level analysis of Pakistani human bombs reveals that suicide terrorism is caused by multi... more A multi-level analysis of Pakistani human bombs reveals that suicide terrorism is caused by multiple factors with perceived effectiveness, vengeance, poverty, and religious fundamentalism playing a varying role at the individual, organizational, and environmental levels. Nationalism and resistance to foreign occupation appear as the least relevant factors behind suicide terrorism in Pakistan. The findings of this research are based on a multi-level analysis of suicide bombings, incorporating both primary and secondary data. In this study, the author also decodes personal, demographic, economic and marital characteristics of Pakistani human bombs. On average, Pakistani suicide bombers are the youngest but the deadliest in the world, and more than 71 percent of their victims are civilians. Earlier concepts of a weak link linking terrorism with poverty and illiteracy do not hold up against the recent data gathered on the post-9/11 generation of fighters in Pakistan (in suicidal and non-suicidal categories), as the majority of fighters from a variety of terrorist organizations are economically deprived and semi-literate. The majority of Pakistani human bombs come from rural backgrounds, with very few from major urban centres. Suicide bombings in Pakistan remain a male-dominated phenomenon, with most bombers being single men. Demographic profiling of Pakistani suicide bombers, based on a random sample of 80 failed and successful attackers, dents the notion that American drone strikes play a primary role in promoting terrorism in all its manifestations. The study concludes that previous scholarly attempts to explain suicide bombings are largely based on Middle Eastern data, thus their application in the case of Pakistan can be misleading. The Pakistani case study of suicide terrorism demonstrates unique characteristics, hence it needs to be understood and countered through a context-specific and multi-level approach.

China’s Xinjiang Policies Risk Losing Public Goodwill in Pakistan, 2018

Reports on Beijing’s purported forced re-education programs for Muslims of Xinjiang are depriving... more Reports on Beijing’s purported forced re-education programs for Muslims of Xinjiang are depriving China of her hard-earned public goodwill in the country, where there are frequent displays of solidarity with Muslims suffering elsewhere in the world. The government’s inaction on such issues is often manipulated by terrorist organizations to expand their recruitment base among a large pocket of Pakistani population, which considers its religious obligation to respond to the sufferings of Muslims anywhere in the world. Xinjiang could have similar radicalizing impact on Pakistani population as other international issues such as Palestine, Kashmir, Afghanistan, Iraq and Chechnya have always had.