jean-loup samaan | NATO School (original) (raw)

Uploads

Papers by jean-loup samaan

The Indian Ocean as a New Political and Security Region

The Indian Ocean as a New Political and Security Region

Over the last five years, interest in cyber-defense has grown in earnest, particularly after the ... more Over the last five years, interest in cyber-defense has grown in earnest, particularly after the cyberattacks against the Estonian government in spring of 2007, the discovery of the GhostNet network targeting the Dali Lama’s diplomatic offices in 2009, and the Stuxnet worm’s disruption of the Iranian nuclear program in 2010. As a result, the US government has made substantial moves in the last two years towards the institutionalization of cyber-defense:

In spite of an uncertain political agenda, the new American administration won’t be able to avoid... more In spite of an uncertain political agenda, the new American administration won’t be able to avoid dealing with the Middle East conflicts and more specifically on the three main regional issues: the exit strategy in Iraq, the diplomatic posture toward Iran and the Israeli-Arab negotiations. So far, one could doubt that the Obama national security team would follow the blueprint from the Clinton era which perceived the Israeli-Palestine conflict as the matrix of all security issues in the Middle East (proliferation, terrorism). At the opposite, there is a high probability that the American military debate will remain «Iraqi-centric» for the next two years. While the withdrawal plan will have to be refined due to the operational feasibility, the mismanagement of the Iraqi refugees’ issue could lead to regional insecurity. Finally, there is still uncertainty regarding the new diplomatic posture toward Iran and Syria. Both changes could have a noteworthy impact on France’s foreign policy...

La defense antimissile israelienne est le resultat de la proliferation balistique au Moyen-Orient... more La defense antimissile israelienne est le resultat de la proliferation balistique au Moyen-Orient entamee a partir des annees 1970. Plus precisement elle est une reaction a l’emploi coercitif qui en est fait par les Etats arabes, notamment avec la guerre des cites Iran-Irak de 1988 et l’envoi de Scuds par Saddam Hussein sur Israel en 1991. Cependant, derouler l’histoire de la defense antimissile israelienne revele la valeur dissuasive encore limitee de ce dispositif. Celui-ci constitue pour les Israeliens un complement a son appareil militaire. En particulier, le ratio cout de l’interception versus cout de la roquette reste au detriment de la defense et invalide l’idee selon laquelle les systemes israeliens dissuaderaient in fine les milices palestiniennes. On peut donc emettre l’hypothese que la defense antimissile israelienne n’aurait un role stabilisateur que dans la partie haute du spectre – la menace de missiles de longue portee – et non dans sa partie basse – la menace de roqu...

Given the contemporary flow of missiles and rockets in the Mediterranean, the security challenge ... more Given the contemporary flow of missiles and rockets in the Mediterranean, the security challenge posed by these arsenals is likely to remain a major concern for European security in coming years. This paper provides, first, an overview of the contemporary security environment, from the spread of Libya’s MANPADs across North Africa to Hezbollah’s missile strategy in the Levant. It then explores three different types of scenarios in which these devices could play a central role. Finally, it underlines the implications for the EU and NATO and offers some policy recommendations regarding military planning and regional partnerships.

Stabilising the Contemporary Middle East and North Africa

Over the last years, the wave of terrorist attacks against cultural artefacts in Mali, Iraq or Sy... more Over the last years, the wave of terrorist attacks against cultural artefacts in Mali, Iraq or Syria has put the defence of cultural heritage on the diplomatic agenda. In the eyes of decision-makers, these destructions demonstrated that heritage was not a collateral damage of war but one of its ostentatious targets. If these developments triggered a momentum on the international stage to launch new policy initiatives, the phenomenon is by no means unprecedented as monuments have been targeted throughout history. Specifically, the notion of protecting cultural property appeared in the eighteenth century in the fallout of the French Revolution with political thinkers considering this mission a collective moral duty. Despite this contemporary momentum, major challenges remain such as the issue of governance among all the stakeholders, the cultural clash between curatorial and military communities, the applicability of the legal framework in the current security environment and finally the operational complexity of defending artefacts in conflict zones.

Terrorism and Political Violence

ABSTRACT As France and Germany have become major targets of jihadist terrorism, the calls for str... more ABSTRACT As France and Germany have become major targets of jihadist terrorism, the calls for stronger cooperation in counterterrorism at the European level have grown in earnest. However, a comparative analysis of the national experiences from both countries evidences significant differences in terms of political culture, institutional division of labor, and legal oversight. Counterterrorism practices can be described following a typology of three broad categories: a military-oriented policy that aims to prevent, deter and retaliate against terrorists; a regulatory policy that strengthens the legal and judicial resources to address the terrorist threat; a diplomatic approach that focuses on negotiations, and sometimes accommodation. Whereas France moved after the 2015 attacks towards a military-oriented policy, Germany has so far opted to sustain its traditional regulatory approach. This article details the differences between Paris and Berlin regarding the contemporary public debate on jihadist terrorism, to the law enforcement framework, to the deradicalization programs as well as to the role of armed forces. The paper identifies a clear divergence in each of these sectors. As the future extent of bi- and multilateral lateral efforts in the field of counterterrorism are likely to rise, these differences should be better taken into account.

Politique étrangère

L’administration Trump a initie une nouvelle strategie pour l’Indo-Pacifique. Cette strategie vis... more L’administration Trump a initie une nouvelle strategie pour l’Indo-Pacifique. Cette strategie vise avant tout a endiguer l’expansion chinoise, en developpant le partenariat avec l’Inde et les cooperations en Asie du Sud-Est. Mais cette posture renforce un jeu a somme nulle qui incite les partenaires de Washington a la prudence. La capacite des Etats-Unis a proposer une alternative a Pekin s’erode tandis que les Etats de cette region cherchent a affirmer leur autonomie strategique.politique etrangere

Strategic Hedging in the Arabian Peninsula: The Politics of the Gulf—Asian Rapprochement

Politique étrangère

En decembre 2016, le gouvernement britannique annoncait son retour « a l’est de Suez ». Or, au-de... more En decembre 2016, le gouvernement britannique annoncait son retour « a l’est de Suez ». Or, au-dela de l’effet d’annonce, la capacite de Londres a jouer un role geopolitique dans la region reste limitee. Londres ne cache pas la priorite qu’elle accorde aux echanges commerciaux, en particulier avec la Chine, au detriment eventuel de l’Inde. Son soft power, en particulier dans le domaine de la formation, lui permet cependant de preserver sa presence hors des jeux de puissance locaux.

Hérodote, 2016

L’espace maritime du Golfe est un reflet des rapports de forces dans la region. Les Etats-Unis y ... more L’espace maritime du Golfe est un reflet des rapports de forces dans la region. Les Etats-Unis y maintiennent une suprematie navale sans rivale tandis que les Francais et les Britanniques restent des acteurs influents. Mais si ces puissances occidentales demeurent fortement presentes, les marines des membres du Conseil de cooperation du Golfe et de l’Iran se developpent a leur tour. Enfin, les puissances asiatiques sont de plus en plus amenees a y deployer leurs moyens militaires en raison de leurs intenses echanges economiques avec le Golfe, sans que cela puisse a ce stade s’apparenter a un veritable rapprochement strategique.

Contemporary Security Policy, 2009

On 21 March 2008, upon the christening of a new French missile-carrying submarine, President Sark... more On 21 March 2008, upon the christening of a new French missile-carrying submarine, President Sarkozy invited France's European allies to join in a dialogue on the idea of Euro-deterrence, but he backed away from specifying French interests which, if attacked, ...

The Indian Ocean as a New Political and Security Region

The Indian Ocean as a New Political and Security Region

Over the last five years, interest in cyber-defense has grown in earnest, particularly after the ... more Over the last five years, interest in cyber-defense has grown in earnest, particularly after the cyberattacks against the Estonian government in spring of 2007, the discovery of the GhostNet network targeting the Dali Lama’s diplomatic offices in 2009, and the Stuxnet worm’s disruption of the Iranian nuclear program in 2010. As a result, the US government has made substantial moves in the last two years towards the institutionalization of cyber-defense:

In spite of an uncertain political agenda, the new American administration won’t be able to avoid... more In spite of an uncertain political agenda, the new American administration won’t be able to avoid dealing with the Middle East conflicts and more specifically on the three main regional issues: the exit strategy in Iraq, the diplomatic posture toward Iran and the Israeli-Arab negotiations. So far, one could doubt that the Obama national security team would follow the blueprint from the Clinton era which perceived the Israeli-Palestine conflict as the matrix of all security issues in the Middle East (proliferation, terrorism). At the opposite, there is a high probability that the American military debate will remain «Iraqi-centric» for the next two years. While the withdrawal plan will have to be refined due to the operational feasibility, the mismanagement of the Iraqi refugees’ issue could lead to regional insecurity. Finally, there is still uncertainty regarding the new diplomatic posture toward Iran and Syria. Both changes could have a noteworthy impact on France’s foreign policy...

La defense antimissile israelienne est le resultat de la proliferation balistique au Moyen-Orient... more La defense antimissile israelienne est le resultat de la proliferation balistique au Moyen-Orient entamee a partir des annees 1970. Plus precisement elle est une reaction a l’emploi coercitif qui en est fait par les Etats arabes, notamment avec la guerre des cites Iran-Irak de 1988 et l’envoi de Scuds par Saddam Hussein sur Israel en 1991. Cependant, derouler l’histoire de la defense antimissile israelienne revele la valeur dissuasive encore limitee de ce dispositif. Celui-ci constitue pour les Israeliens un complement a son appareil militaire. En particulier, le ratio cout de l’interception versus cout de la roquette reste au detriment de la defense et invalide l’idee selon laquelle les systemes israeliens dissuaderaient in fine les milices palestiniennes. On peut donc emettre l’hypothese que la defense antimissile israelienne n’aurait un role stabilisateur que dans la partie haute du spectre – la menace de missiles de longue portee – et non dans sa partie basse – la menace de roqu...

Given the contemporary flow of missiles and rockets in the Mediterranean, the security challenge ... more Given the contemporary flow of missiles and rockets in the Mediterranean, the security challenge posed by these arsenals is likely to remain a major concern for European security in coming years. This paper provides, first, an overview of the contemporary security environment, from the spread of Libya’s MANPADs across North Africa to Hezbollah’s missile strategy in the Levant. It then explores three different types of scenarios in which these devices could play a central role. Finally, it underlines the implications for the EU and NATO and offers some policy recommendations regarding military planning and regional partnerships.

Stabilising the Contemporary Middle East and North Africa

Over the last years, the wave of terrorist attacks against cultural artefacts in Mali, Iraq or Sy... more Over the last years, the wave of terrorist attacks against cultural artefacts in Mali, Iraq or Syria has put the defence of cultural heritage on the diplomatic agenda. In the eyes of decision-makers, these destructions demonstrated that heritage was not a collateral damage of war but one of its ostentatious targets. If these developments triggered a momentum on the international stage to launch new policy initiatives, the phenomenon is by no means unprecedented as monuments have been targeted throughout history. Specifically, the notion of protecting cultural property appeared in the eighteenth century in the fallout of the French Revolution with political thinkers considering this mission a collective moral duty. Despite this contemporary momentum, major challenges remain such as the issue of governance among all the stakeholders, the cultural clash between curatorial and military communities, the applicability of the legal framework in the current security environment and finally the operational complexity of defending artefacts in conflict zones.

Terrorism and Political Violence

ABSTRACT As France and Germany have become major targets of jihadist terrorism, the calls for str... more ABSTRACT As France and Germany have become major targets of jihadist terrorism, the calls for stronger cooperation in counterterrorism at the European level have grown in earnest. However, a comparative analysis of the national experiences from both countries evidences significant differences in terms of political culture, institutional division of labor, and legal oversight. Counterterrorism practices can be described following a typology of three broad categories: a military-oriented policy that aims to prevent, deter and retaliate against terrorists; a regulatory policy that strengthens the legal and judicial resources to address the terrorist threat; a diplomatic approach that focuses on negotiations, and sometimes accommodation. Whereas France moved after the 2015 attacks towards a military-oriented policy, Germany has so far opted to sustain its traditional regulatory approach. This article details the differences between Paris and Berlin regarding the contemporary public debate on jihadist terrorism, to the law enforcement framework, to the deradicalization programs as well as to the role of armed forces. The paper identifies a clear divergence in each of these sectors. As the future extent of bi- and multilateral lateral efforts in the field of counterterrorism are likely to rise, these differences should be better taken into account.

Politique étrangère

L’administration Trump a initie une nouvelle strategie pour l’Indo-Pacifique. Cette strategie vis... more L’administration Trump a initie une nouvelle strategie pour l’Indo-Pacifique. Cette strategie vise avant tout a endiguer l’expansion chinoise, en developpant le partenariat avec l’Inde et les cooperations en Asie du Sud-Est. Mais cette posture renforce un jeu a somme nulle qui incite les partenaires de Washington a la prudence. La capacite des Etats-Unis a proposer une alternative a Pekin s’erode tandis que les Etats de cette region cherchent a affirmer leur autonomie strategique.politique etrangere

Strategic Hedging in the Arabian Peninsula: The Politics of the Gulf—Asian Rapprochement

Politique étrangère

En decembre 2016, le gouvernement britannique annoncait son retour « a l’est de Suez ». Or, au-de... more En decembre 2016, le gouvernement britannique annoncait son retour « a l’est de Suez ». Or, au-dela de l’effet d’annonce, la capacite de Londres a jouer un role geopolitique dans la region reste limitee. Londres ne cache pas la priorite qu’elle accorde aux echanges commerciaux, en particulier avec la Chine, au detriment eventuel de l’Inde. Son soft power, en particulier dans le domaine de la formation, lui permet cependant de preserver sa presence hors des jeux de puissance locaux.

Hérodote, 2016

L’espace maritime du Golfe est un reflet des rapports de forces dans la region. Les Etats-Unis y ... more L’espace maritime du Golfe est un reflet des rapports de forces dans la region. Les Etats-Unis y maintiennent une suprematie navale sans rivale tandis que les Francais et les Britanniques restent des acteurs influents. Mais si ces puissances occidentales demeurent fortement presentes, les marines des membres du Conseil de cooperation du Golfe et de l’Iran se developpent a leur tour. Enfin, les puissances asiatiques sont de plus en plus amenees a y deployer leurs moyens militaires en raison de leurs intenses echanges economiques avec le Golfe, sans que cela puisse a ce stade s’apparenter a un veritable rapprochement strategique.

Contemporary Security Policy, 2009

On 21 March 2008, upon the christening of a new French missile-carrying submarine, President Sark... more On 21 March 2008, upon the christening of a new French missile-carrying submarine, President Sarkozy invited France's European allies to join in a dialogue on the idea of Euro-deterrence, but he backed away from specifying French interests which, if attacked, ...