Shijie Lu | University of Notre Dame (original) (raw)
Papers by Shijie Lu
Journal of Marketing Research, Mar 22, 2023
Marketers frequently create social media content (i.e., firm-generated content; FGC) to ignite in... more Marketers frequently create social media content (i.e., firm-generated content; FGC) to ignite interest in new movies. Thus, there is a clear need to understand the magnitude and heterogeneity of the effect of FGC on movie demand and associated user-generated content (UGC). The authors empirically examine the complex interactions among FGC, UGC, and sales using social media (tweet) data that are normally available to firms. They investigate two potential mechanisms by which FGC may drive box office revenues: (1) a direct mechanism, such that users who see FGC directly drive revenue, and (2) an indirect "ripple effect," by which FGC increases movie-related UGC, which then drives consumption. By analyzing 145,502 firm-generated and 5.9 million user-generated Twitter posts associated with 159 movies, the authors find a positive and significant effect of FGC on movie sales, which UGC fully mediates, which supports the indirect ripple effect reasoning. Impressions of FGC by followers of firm accounts, as opposed to nonfollowers of firm accounts, mainly drive the effect of FGC on UGC. In addition, FGC by movie accounts is more effective than that by actors and studios. Firms' regular posts with a movie-specific hashtag are more effective than replies, retweets, and posts without the hashtag. The finding of the ripple effect suggests that movie executives should focus on creating FGC that sparks conversations among followers when new movies are released.
Journal of Marketing, Jan 2, 2023
Journal of Consumer Research, 2021
Persuasion success is often related to hard-to-measure characteristics, such as the way the persu... more Persuasion success is often related to hard-to-measure characteristics, such as the way the persuader speaks. To examine how vocal tones impact persuasion in an online appeal, this research measures persuaders’ vocal tones in Kickstarter video pitches using novel audio mining technology. Connecting vocal tone dimensions with real-world funding outcomes offers insight into the impact of vocal tones on receivers’ actions. The core hypothesis of this paper is that a successful persuasion attempt is associated with vocal tones denoting (1) focus, (2) low stress, and (3) stable emotions. These three vocal tone dimensions—which are in line with the stereotype content model—matter because they allow receivers to make inferences about a persuader’s competence. The hypotheses are tested with a large-scale empirical study using Kickstarter data, which is then replicated in a different category. In addition, two controlled experiments provide evidence that perceptions of competence mediate the...
Management Science, 2019
Anecdotal evidence suggests that counterfeiting/piracy can help create online word of mouth (WOM)... more Anecdotal evidence suggests that counterfeiting/piracy can help create online word of mouth (WOM) and through this boost demand, but how powerful is such WOM? To answer this question, we conduct a descriptive study with some attempts to establish near causality. We estimate the impact of piracy on WOM and ultimately revenue by applying a panel data method to all movies widely released in the United States from 2015 to 2017. In identifying the effects of piracy we make inventive use of Russian piracy data to construct instrument variables for piracy in the United States. This is possible because the key piracy site, The Pirate Bay, has been blocked in Russia since 2015. We find movies with prerelease piracy are associated with lower revenues despite the WOM effect. Critically, however, we show a positive correlation between postrelease piracy and WOM volume, and we extend the field by finding that the presence of postrelease piracy is associated with an approximately 3.0% increase in...
Journal of Marketing, 2020
A sizable portion of online movie reviews contain spoilers, defined as information that premature... more A sizable portion of online movie reviews contain spoilers, defined as information that prematurely resolves plot uncertainty. In this research, the authors study the consequences of spoiler reviews using data on box office revenue and online word of mouth for movies released in the United States. To capture the degree of information in spoiler review text that reduces plot uncertainty, the authors propose a spoiler intensity metric and measure it using a correlated topic model. Using a dynamic panel model with movie fixed effects and instrumental variables, the authors find a significant and positive relationship between spoiler intensity and box office revenue with an elasticity of .06. The positive effect of spoiler intensity is greater for movies with a limited release, smaller advertising spending, and moderate user ratings, and is stronger in the earlier days after the movie’s release. Using an event study and online experiments, the authors provide further evidence that spoil...
Marketing Science, 2021
This paper examines the effect of over-the-top media services on consumers’ search for pirated vi... more This paper examines the effect of over-the-top media services on consumers’ search for pirated video content in the entertainment industry
Marketing Science, 2014
Paid search has become the mainstream platform for online advertising, further intensifying compe... more Paid search has become the mainstream platform for online advertising, further intensifying competition between advertisers. The main objective of this research is twofold. On the one hand, we want to understand, in the context of paid-search advertising, the effects of competition (measured by the number of ads on the paid-search listings) on click volume and the cost per click (CPC) of paid-search ads. On the other hand, we are interested in understanding the determinants of competition, that is, how various demand and supply factors affect the entry probability of firms and, consequently, the total number of entrants for a keyword. We regard each keyword as a market and build an integrative model consisting of three key components: (i) the realized click volume of each entrant as a function of the baseline click volume and the decay factor; (ii) the vector of realized CPCs of those entrants as a function of the decay factor and the order statistics of the value per click at an equilibrium condition; and (iii) the number of entrants, the product of the number of potential entrants multiplied by the entry probability; the entry probability is determined by the expected revenue (a function of expected click volume, CPC, and value per click) and the entry cost at the equilibrium condition of an incomplete information game. The proposed modeling framework entails several econometric challenges. To cope with these challenges, we develop a Bayesian estimation approach to make model inferences. Our proposed model is applied to a data set of 1,597 keywords associated with digital camera/video and their accessories with full information on competition. Our empirical analysis indicates that the number of competing ads has a significant impact on the baseline click volume, decay factor, and value per click. These findings help paid-search advertisers assess the impact of competition on their entry decisions and advertising profitability. In the counterfactual analysis, we investigate the profit implication of two polices for the paid-search host: raising the decay factor by encouraging consumers to engage in more in-depth search/click-through and providing coupons to advertisers.
Marketing Science, 2021
As live streaming of events gains traction, pay-what-you-want (PWYW) pricing strategies are emerg... more As live streaming of events gains traction, pay-what-you-want (PWYW) pricing strategies are emerging as critical monetization tools. We assess the viability of PWYW by examining the relationship between popularity (i.e., audience size) of a live streaming event and the revenue it generates under a PWYW scheme. On the one hand, increasing audience size may enhance voluntary payment/tips if social image concerns are important, because larger audiences amplify the utility pertaining to social image. On the other hand, increasing audience size may reduce tips if gaining the broadcaster’s reciprocal acts motivates tipping because larger audiences are associated with fiercer competition for reciprocity. To examine these trade-offs in the relationship between audience size and revenue under PWYW, we manipulate audience size by exogenously adding synthetic viewers in live streaming shows on a platform in China. The results reveal a mostly positive relationship between audience size and average tip per viewer, which suggests that social image concerns dominate seeking reciprocity. In support of herding, adding synthetic viewers also increases the number of real viewers. Social image concerns and herding together explain the finding that adding one additional viewer improves the tipping revenue per minute by approximately .01 Yuan (1% of the mean level). Further, famous female broadcasters who use recognition-related words frequently during the event benefit the most from an increase in audience size. Overall, the results indicate that revenues under PWYW do not scale linearly and support the relevance of social image concerns in driving individual payment decisions under PWYW.
Management Science, 2020
Anecdotal evidence suggests that counterfeiting/piracy can help create online word of mouth (WOM)... more Anecdotal evidence suggests that counterfeiting/piracy can help create online word of mouth (WOM) and through this boost demand, but how powerful is such WOM? To answer this question, we conduct a descriptive study with some attempts to establish near causality. We estimate the impact of piracy on WOM and ultimately revenue by applying a panel data method to all movies widely released in the United States from 2015 to 2017. In identifying the effects of piracy we make inventive use of Russian piracy data to construct instrument variables for piracy in the United States. This is possible because the key piracy site, The Pirate Bay, has been blocked in Russia since 2015. We find movies with prerelease piracy are associated with lower revenues despite the WOM effect. Critically, however, we show a positive correlation between postrelease piracy and WOM volume, and we extend the field by finding that the presence of postrelease piracy is associated with an approximately 3.0% increase in box office revenue. We also note the impact of a raid by the Swedish Police that temporarily took down The Pirate Bay website in December 2014. The period when the site was down experienced a decline in WOM volume and revenues, consistent with the effect of lower postrelease piracy predicted by our models. Our findings suggest approaches to target scarce antipiracy resources, such as focusing on tackling damaging prerelease piracy.
Marketing Science, 2016
As Internet advertising infomediaries nowadays provide rich competition information, sponsored se... more As Internet advertising infomediaries nowadays provide rich competition information, sponsored search advertisers are becoming more strategic when selecting keywords. This paper empirically examines the spillover effects in advertisers’ keyword market entry decisions, that is, how an advertiser’s likelihood of using a keyword is affected by competitors’ keyword entry decisions. We develop a structural model to characterize advertisers’ keyword market entry decisions. We apply the model to a panel data set of 1,252 laptop-related keywords mainly used by 28 manufacturers, retailers, and comparison websites that advertise on Google. Our analysis leads to several interesting findings. First, an advertiser’s expected position affects the nature of the competition. In particular, the spillover effect from below-ranked competitors is always positive, while the spillover effect from above-ranked competitors is either positive or negative. Second, the spillover effect from above-ranked ads is directionally affected by firms’ product-line characteristics: the effect among firms offering homogenous products (e.g., comparison sites) is negative, whereas the effect among firms with more differentiated products (e.g., manufacturers and retailers) is positive. Third, the spillover effect from above-ranked ads is directionally affected by firms’ positions in a distribution channel: the effect from upstream (downstream) on downstream (upstream) firms tends to be negative (positive). Finally, a downstream firm is more likely to learn new keywords from an upstream firm but not vice versa. Our counterfactual simulations demonstrate that the keyword-specific competition information provided by infomediaries can improve the search engine’s revenue by about 5.7%.
Journal of Marketing, 2021
A sizable portion of online movie reviews contain spoilers, defined as information that premature... more A sizable portion of online movie reviews contain spoilers, defined as information that prematurely resolves plot uncertainty. In this research, the authors study the consequences of spoiler reviews using data on box office revenue and online word of mouth for movies released in the United States. To capture the degree of information in spoiler review text that reduces plot uncertainty, the authors propose a spoiler intensity metric and measure it using a correlated topic model. Using a dynamic panel model with movie fixed effects and instrumental variables, the authors find a significant and positive relationship between spoiler intensity and box office revenue with an elasticity of .06. The positive effect of spoiler intensity is greater for movies with a limited release, smaller advertising spending, and moderate user ratings, and is stronger in the earlier days after the movie’s release. Using an event study and online experiments, the authors provide further evidence that spoiler reviews can help consumers reduce their uncertainty about the quality of movies, consequently encouraging theater visits. Thus, movie studios may benefit from consumers’ access to plot-intense reviews and should actively monitor the content of spoiler reviews to better forecast box office performance.
Marketing Science, 2021
The rise of over-the-top (OTT) video streaming services has raised the question of how this new f... more The rise of over-the-top (OTT) video streaming services has raised the question of how this new form of digital media affects consumer search for pirated content. We address this question by using Netflix’s unexpected announcement of a global market expansion in January 2016 and the subsequent block by the primary telecommunications firm in Indonesia as an exogenous shock to the supply of OTT services in that country. Using synthetic control methods, we compare the change in piracy search between Indonesia and 40 Asian countries where Netflix simultaneously entered and remained available. Netflix’s failure to launch in Indonesia leads to a 19.7% increase in search for pirated movies and TV shows in Indonesia, relative to the other countries, suggesting a net substitution of piracy for OTT services. Comparison of treatment effects between exclusive and nonexclusive content shows that the treatment effect is driven by both a combination of an expansion of the market for piracy and a substitution between piracy and OTT services. We also find that the treatment effect is stronger for less dialogue-oriented content, which is consistent with the greater appeal of dialogue-light content to non–English-speaking consumers.
Marketing Science, 2015
This paper examines position auctions with budget-constrained advertisers, a dominant bidding env... more This paper examines position auctions with budget-constrained advertisers, a dominant bidding environment used by publishers to allocate positions in online advertising. Budget constraints play a crucial role in equilibrium bidding by inducing advertisers to strategically deplete a higher-ranked advertiser’s budget to gain in rank. This strategic consideration has consequences for the advertisers’ profits and the publisher’s revenue. An advertiser’s profit can strictly decrease with her budget when competition for an advertising space (e.g., a keyword) is intense. The publisher’s revenue can also strictly decrease when an increase in the higher-ranked advertiser’s budget induces the lower-ranked rival to reduce her bid, due to her inability to deplete the higher-ranked advertiser’s budget. Several managerial implications for advertisers and publishers are discussed.
Journal of Consumer Research, 2021
Persuasion success is often related to hard-to-measure characteristics, such as the way the persu... more Persuasion success is often related to hard-to-measure characteristics, such as the way the persuader speaks. To examine how vocal tones impact persuasion in an online appeal, this research measures persuaders’ vocal tones in Kickstarter video pitches using novel audio mining technology. Connecting vocal tone dimensions with real-world funding outcomes offers insight into the impact of vocal tones on receivers’ actions. The core hypothesis of this paper is that a successful persuasion attempt is associated with vocal tones denoting (1) focus, (2) low stress, and (3) stable emotions. These three vocal tone dimensions—which are in line with the stereotype content model—matter because they allow receivers to make inferences about a persuader’s competence. The hypotheses are tested with a large-scale empirical study using Kickstarter data, which is then replicated in a different category. In addition, two controlled experiments provide evidence that perceptions of competence mediate the impact of the three vocal tones on persuasion attempt success. The results identify key indicators of persuasion attempt success and suggest a greater role for audio mining in academic consumer research.
Journal of Marketing Research, Mar 22, 2023
Marketers frequently create social media content (i.e., firm-generated content; FGC) to ignite in... more Marketers frequently create social media content (i.e., firm-generated content; FGC) to ignite interest in new movies. Thus, there is a clear need to understand the magnitude and heterogeneity of the effect of FGC on movie demand and associated user-generated content (UGC). The authors empirically examine the complex interactions among FGC, UGC, and sales using social media (tweet) data that are normally available to firms. They investigate two potential mechanisms by which FGC may drive box office revenues: (1) a direct mechanism, such that users who see FGC directly drive revenue, and (2) an indirect "ripple effect," by which FGC increases movie-related UGC, which then drives consumption. By analyzing 145,502 firm-generated and 5.9 million user-generated Twitter posts associated with 159 movies, the authors find a positive and significant effect of FGC on movie sales, which UGC fully mediates, which supports the indirect ripple effect reasoning. Impressions of FGC by followers of firm accounts, as opposed to nonfollowers of firm accounts, mainly drive the effect of FGC on UGC. In addition, FGC by movie accounts is more effective than that by actors and studios. Firms' regular posts with a movie-specific hashtag are more effective than replies, retweets, and posts without the hashtag. The finding of the ripple effect suggests that movie executives should focus on creating FGC that sparks conversations among followers when new movies are released.
Journal of Marketing, Jan 2, 2023
Journal of Consumer Research, 2021
Persuasion success is often related to hard-to-measure characteristics, such as the way the persu... more Persuasion success is often related to hard-to-measure characteristics, such as the way the persuader speaks. To examine how vocal tones impact persuasion in an online appeal, this research measures persuaders’ vocal tones in Kickstarter video pitches using novel audio mining technology. Connecting vocal tone dimensions with real-world funding outcomes offers insight into the impact of vocal tones on receivers’ actions. The core hypothesis of this paper is that a successful persuasion attempt is associated with vocal tones denoting (1) focus, (2) low stress, and (3) stable emotions. These three vocal tone dimensions—which are in line with the stereotype content model—matter because they allow receivers to make inferences about a persuader’s competence. The hypotheses are tested with a large-scale empirical study using Kickstarter data, which is then replicated in a different category. In addition, two controlled experiments provide evidence that perceptions of competence mediate the...
Management Science, 2019
Anecdotal evidence suggests that counterfeiting/piracy can help create online word of mouth (WOM)... more Anecdotal evidence suggests that counterfeiting/piracy can help create online word of mouth (WOM) and through this boost demand, but how powerful is such WOM? To answer this question, we conduct a descriptive study with some attempts to establish near causality. We estimate the impact of piracy on WOM and ultimately revenue by applying a panel data method to all movies widely released in the United States from 2015 to 2017. In identifying the effects of piracy we make inventive use of Russian piracy data to construct instrument variables for piracy in the United States. This is possible because the key piracy site, The Pirate Bay, has been blocked in Russia since 2015. We find movies with prerelease piracy are associated with lower revenues despite the WOM effect. Critically, however, we show a positive correlation between postrelease piracy and WOM volume, and we extend the field by finding that the presence of postrelease piracy is associated with an approximately 3.0% increase in...
Journal of Marketing, 2020
A sizable portion of online movie reviews contain spoilers, defined as information that premature... more A sizable portion of online movie reviews contain spoilers, defined as information that prematurely resolves plot uncertainty. In this research, the authors study the consequences of spoiler reviews using data on box office revenue and online word of mouth for movies released in the United States. To capture the degree of information in spoiler review text that reduces plot uncertainty, the authors propose a spoiler intensity metric and measure it using a correlated topic model. Using a dynamic panel model with movie fixed effects and instrumental variables, the authors find a significant and positive relationship between spoiler intensity and box office revenue with an elasticity of .06. The positive effect of spoiler intensity is greater for movies with a limited release, smaller advertising spending, and moderate user ratings, and is stronger in the earlier days after the movie’s release. Using an event study and online experiments, the authors provide further evidence that spoil...
Marketing Science, 2021
This paper examines the effect of over-the-top media services on consumers’ search for pirated vi... more This paper examines the effect of over-the-top media services on consumers’ search for pirated video content in the entertainment industry
Marketing Science, 2014
Paid search has become the mainstream platform for online advertising, further intensifying compe... more Paid search has become the mainstream platform for online advertising, further intensifying competition between advertisers. The main objective of this research is twofold. On the one hand, we want to understand, in the context of paid-search advertising, the effects of competition (measured by the number of ads on the paid-search listings) on click volume and the cost per click (CPC) of paid-search ads. On the other hand, we are interested in understanding the determinants of competition, that is, how various demand and supply factors affect the entry probability of firms and, consequently, the total number of entrants for a keyword. We regard each keyword as a market and build an integrative model consisting of three key components: (i) the realized click volume of each entrant as a function of the baseline click volume and the decay factor; (ii) the vector of realized CPCs of those entrants as a function of the decay factor and the order statistics of the value per click at an equilibrium condition; and (iii) the number of entrants, the product of the number of potential entrants multiplied by the entry probability; the entry probability is determined by the expected revenue (a function of expected click volume, CPC, and value per click) and the entry cost at the equilibrium condition of an incomplete information game. The proposed modeling framework entails several econometric challenges. To cope with these challenges, we develop a Bayesian estimation approach to make model inferences. Our proposed model is applied to a data set of 1,597 keywords associated with digital camera/video and their accessories with full information on competition. Our empirical analysis indicates that the number of competing ads has a significant impact on the baseline click volume, decay factor, and value per click. These findings help paid-search advertisers assess the impact of competition on their entry decisions and advertising profitability. In the counterfactual analysis, we investigate the profit implication of two polices for the paid-search host: raising the decay factor by encouraging consumers to engage in more in-depth search/click-through and providing coupons to advertisers.
Marketing Science, 2021
As live streaming of events gains traction, pay-what-you-want (PWYW) pricing strategies are emerg... more As live streaming of events gains traction, pay-what-you-want (PWYW) pricing strategies are emerging as critical monetization tools. We assess the viability of PWYW by examining the relationship between popularity (i.e., audience size) of a live streaming event and the revenue it generates under a PWYW scheme. On the one hand, increasing audience size may enhance voluntary payment/tips if social image concerns are important, because larger audiences amplify the utility pertaining to social image. On the other hand, increasing audience size may reduce tips if gaining the broadcaster’s reciprocal acts motivates tipping because larger audiences are associated with fiercer competition for reciprocity. To examine these trade-offs in the relationship between audience size and revenue under PWYW, we manipulate audience size by exogenously adding synthetic viewers in live streaming shows on a platform in China. The results reveal a mostly positive relationship between audience size and average tip per viewer, which suggests that social image concerns dominate seeking reciprocity. In support of herding, adding synthetic viewers also increases the number of real viewers. Social image concerns and herding together explain the finding that adding one additional viewer improves the tipping revenue per minute by approximately .01 Yuan (1% of the mean level). Further, famous female broadcasters who use recognition-related words frequently during the event benefit the most from an increase in audience size. Overall, the results indicate that revenues under PWYW do not scale linearly and support the relevance of social image concerns in driving individual payment decisions under PWYW.
Management Science, 2020
Anecdotal evidence suggests that counterfeiting/piracy can help create online word of mouth (WOM)... more Anecdotal evidence suggests that counterfeiting/piracy can help create online word of mouth (WOM) and through this boost demand, but how powerful is such WOM? To answer this question, we conduct a descriptive study with some attempts to establish near causality. We estimate the impact of piracy on WOM and ultimately revenue by applying a panel data method to all movies widely released in the United States from 2015 to 2017. In identifying the effects of piracy we make inventive use of Russian piracy data to construct instrument variables for piracy in the United States. This is possible because the key piracy site, The Pirate Bay, has been blocked in Russia since 2015. We find movies with prerelease piracy are associated with lower revenues despite the WOM effect. Critically, however, we show a positive correlation between postrelease piracy and WOM volume, and we extend the field by finding that the presence of postrelease piracy is associated with an approximately 3.0% increase in box office revenue. We also note the impact of a raid by the Swedish Police that temporarily took down The Pirate Bay website in December 2014. The period when the site was down experienced a decline in WOM volume and revenues, consistent with the effect of lower postrelease piracy predicted by our models. Our findings suggest approaches to target scarce antipiracy resources, such as focusing on tackling damaging prerelease piracy.
Marketing Science, 2016
As Internet advertising infomediaries nowadays provide rich competition information, sponsored se... more As Internet advertising infomediaries nowadays provide rich competition information, sponsored search advertisers are becoming more strategic when selecting keywords. This paper empirically examines the spillover effects in advertisers’ keyword market entry decisions, that is, how an advertiser’s likelihood of using a keyword is affected by competitors’ keyword entry decisions. We develop a structural model to characterize advertisers’ keyword market entry decisions. We apply the model to a panel data set of 1,252 laptop-related keywords mainly used by 28 manufacturers, retailers, and comparison websites that advertise on Google. Our analysis leads to several interesting findings. First, an advertiser’s expected position affects the nature of the competition. In particular, the spillover effect from below-ranked competitors is always positive, while the spillover effect from above-ranked competitors is either positive or negative. Second, the spillover effect from above-ranked ads is directionally affected by firms’ product-line characteristics: the effect among firms offering homogenous products (e.g., comparison sites) is negative, whereas the effect among firms with more differentiated products (e.g., manufacturers and retailers) is positive. Third, the spillover effect from above-ranked ads is directionally affected by firms’ positions in a distribution channel: the effect from upstream (downstream) on downstream (upstream) firms tends to be negative (positive). Finally, a downstream firm is more likely to learn new keywords from an upstream firm but not vice versa. Our counterfactual simulations demonstrate that the keyword-specific competition information provided by infomediaries can improve the search engine’s revenue by about 5.7%.
Journal of Marketing, 2021
A sizable portion of online movie reviews contain spoilers, defined as information that premature... more A sizable portion of online movie reviews contain spoilers, defined as information that prematurely resolves plot uncertainty. In this research, the authors study the consequences of spoiler reviews using data on box office revenue and online word of mouth for movies released in the United States. To capture the degree of information in spoiler review text that reduces plot uncertainty, the authors propose a spoiler intensity metric and measure it using a correlated topic model. Using a dynamic panel model with movie fixed effects and instrumental variables, the authors find a significant and positive relationship between spoiler intensity and box office revenue with an elasticity of .06. The positive effect of spoiler intensity is greater for movies with a limited release, smaller advertising spending, and moderate user ratings, and is stronger in the earlier days after the movie’s release. Using an event study and online experiments, the authors provide further evidence that spoiler reviews can help consumers reduce their uncertainty about the quality of movies, consequently encouraging theater visits. Thus, movie studios may benefit from consumers’ access to plot-intense reviews and should actively monitor the content of spoiler reviews to better forecast box office performance.
Marketing Science, 2021
The rise of over-the-top (OTT) video streaming services has raised the question of how this new f... more The rise of over-the-top (OTT) video streaming services has raised the question of how this new form of digital media affects consumer search for pirated content. We address this question by using Netflix’s unexpected announcement of a global market expansion in January 2016 and the subsequent block by the primary telecommunications firm in Indonesia as an exogenous shock to the supply of OTT services in that country. Using synthetic control methods, we compare the change in piracy search between Indonesia and 40 Asian countries where Netflix simultaneously entered and remained available. Netflix’s failure to launch in Indonesia leads to a 19.7% increase in search for pirated movies and TV shows in Indonesia, relative to the other countries, suggesting a net substitution of piracy for OTT services. Comparison of treatment effects between exclusive and nonexclusive content shows that the treatment effect is driven by both a combination of an expansion of the market for piracy and a substitution between piracy and OTT services. We also find that the treatment effect is stronger for less dialogue-oriented content, which is consistent with the greater appeal of dialogue-light content to non–English-speaking consumers.
Marketing Science, 2015
This paper examines position auctions with budget-constrained advertisers, a dominant bidding env... more This paper examines position auctions with budget-constrained advertisers, a dominant bidding environment used by publishers to allocate positions in online advertising. Budget constraints play a crucial role in equilibrium bidding by inducing advertisers to strategically deplete a higher-ranked advertiser’s budget to gain in rank. This strategic consideration has consequences for the advertisers’ profits and the publisher’s revenue. An advertiser’s profit can strictly decrease with her budget when competition for an advertising space (e.g., a keyword) is intense. The publisher’s revenue can also strictly decrease when an increase in the higher-ranked advertiser’s budget induces the lower-ranked rival to reduce her bid, due to her inability to deplete the higher-ranked advertiser’s budget. Several managerial implications for advertisers and publishers are discussed.
Journal of Consumer Research, 2021
Persuasion success is often related to hard-to-measure characteristics, such as the way the persu... more Persuasion success is often related to hard-to-measure characteristics, such as the way the persuader speaks. To examine how vocal tones impact persuasion in an online appeal, this research measures persuaders’ vocal tones in Kickstarter video pitches using novel audio mining technology. Connecting vocal tone dimensions with real-world funding outcomes offers insight into the impact of vocal tones on receivers’ actions. The core hypothesis of this paper is that a successful persuasion attempt is associated with vocal tones denoting (1) focus, (2) low stress, and (3) stable emotions. These three vocal tone dimensions—which are in line with the stereotype content model—matter because they allow receivers to make inferences about a persuader’s competence. The hypotheses are tested with a large-scale empirical study using Kickstarter data, which is then replicated in a different category. In addition, two controlled experiments provide evidence that perceptions of competence mediate the impact of the three vocal tones on persuasion attempt success. The results identify key indicators of persuasion attempt success and suggest a greater role for audio mining in academic consumer research.