Saquib Mehmood | NED University of Engineering and Technology (original) (raw)
Papers by Saquib Mehmood
Climate change is the key issue confronting humanity today. In addition to raising the specter of... more Climate change is the key issue confronting humanity today. In addition to raising the specter of looming ecological disaster, it is also the fundamental human development issue of our time. The impacts of climate change will be transferred to human communities in lopsided proportions with the maximum costs transferred to the poorest and the most vulnerable. Evidently then, fighting poverty and fighting the impacts of climate change have a strategic linkage which needs to be explored for effective policy making. Climate change and human development are locked in dialectic, with changes in one affecting the other. Thus many adverse effects of climate change can be forestalled by focusing on development, and this focus can reciprocally help fighting the causes of climate change. The global climate change regime overseen by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is a complex governance mechanism, with responsibility to coordinate climate change action among states. The global solution to the perils of climate change has crystallized in the form of two competing strategies, mitigation and adaptation, with the former aimed at the causes and the latter at addressing the effects of climate change. Since the developed countries have a disproportionately large carbon footprint, mitigation would not succeed without a cooperative framework involving commitments from all advanced industrialized countries. Meanwhile, the socioeconomic costs will continue to be borne by the less developed countries who must adapt to alleviate the impacts. Closer analysis suggests that current global efforts are biased in favour of mitigation at the cost of adaptation which is more germane to human development. Understanding the reasons for this bias is the key to understanding the mystery surrounding global inaction on adaptation and thus development. This article critically explores the history and functioning of the international climate regime to discover these reasons. The second component of a critical analysis is of course the exploration of alternatives towards positive action. Therefore, an evaluation of the potential of 'microfinance' as a strategy for financing adaptation is also a part of this study. Finally, the employment of microfinance as a strategic approach for adaptation efforts at the societal level is conceptualized with the dual aim of creating employment opportunities and thus poverty alleviation, as well as mobilizing the vast human resource currently neglected in the global discourse on climate change. 2
This paper aims to: Determine viability of NDN as an independent supply route through an evalua... more This paper aims to:
Determine viability of NDN as an independent supply route through an evaluation of existing and projected logistic requirements against the infrastructural constraints.
Examine geopolitical and geoeconomic facets of the issue through evaluation of the regional perspective and feasibility of long term infrastructure development proposals.
Identify challenges and opportunities for Pakistan in the medium to long term in the wake of this development.
Recommend measures to minimize the immediate adverse effects of activation of northern routes for Pakistan while focusing on medium and long term benefits from the project
This essay explores the dynamics of Indian grand strategy through the framework of Alastair Iain ... more This essay explores the dynamics of Indian grand strategy through the framework of Alastair Iain Johnston's theory of strategic culture. The essay contends that within the prevalent discursive paradigms, Nehruvianism remains the dominant Indian strategic culture due to its attraction to a broad spectrum of Indian thinkers as well as its utility in serving as a point of reference for other paradigms. Exploring only the " Central Paradigm " or the " Symbolic Discourse " of Nehruvianism, the paper posits that the symbolic discourse of a strategic culture is not viewed uniformly across different societies and thus subject to a variety of interpretations based on historical experience of each society. Adopting the post-structural textual strategy of deconstruction of a discourse through double reading, the essay reinterprets the symbolic discourse of Nehruvianism from a Pakistani perspective. It concludes that the widely differing interpretations of the same discourse in India and Pakistan are reflective of the limitations of discourse interpretation, and that durable peace may be achieved in case of India through shifting the discourse to the moderating influence of Nehruvianism and in case of Pakistan through shedding the Kautiliyan glasses which it uses to interpret its symbolic discourse.
A thematic analysis of Kaplan's book engaging with the sources, and inspirations behind the work.
Drafts by Saquib Mehmood
We have investigated the problem of C.splendens abundance on Unguja Island, Zanzibar despite repe... more We have investigated the problem of C.splendens abundance on Unguja Island, Zanzibar despite repeated attempts to contain it. We found that past efforts were based on culling programmes which reduced the abundance as long as the programmes lasted, but the problem resurfaced shortly after conclusion of these programmes allegedly due to paucity of funding. We have focused in particular on the two latest culling events on the Island, first in the early to mid 1990s and the second, between 2012 and 2013. We developed two population models to analyze population dynamics in two different types of habitats which we identified on the Island. We categorized these habitats on the basis of “access” to food in relation to its “abundance”. The first imposes a spatial constraint on carrying capacity due to limited access to resource irrespective of its abundance, and a simple Ricker density dependent model was applied to analyze it. We termed it, Type-1 habitat. Type-2 habitat is not constrained by space and its carrying capacity increases over time. We, therefore, developed a population model for a habitat with increasing carrying capacity, taking into account the anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic factors which affect food abundance. We also reconstructed past population estimates on the basis of our habitat classification and found that the C.splendens abundance was over estimated by at least 100% in the last survey conducted in 2009 due to methodological and processing errors. Model results indicated that culling was ineffective in containing abundance in the past because the population rebounded at higher rates of growth at the conclusion of programmes, due to resolution of space or food contest. We then identified three possible pathways on the two models to control the problem. We found that the “food access reduction pathway” which is focused on controlling anthropogenic organic surplus through waste management with no culling, offered the most effective, resource efficient and durable solution. The culling only pathway offered the least effective, resource inefficient and temporary resolution of the problem. The combination pathway (culling and access reduction) offered equal benefits as the access reduction pathway but was the most resource inefficient and the contribution of culling in it wore off as soon as it was terminated.
This paper problematizes the grand strategic interaction between the US grand strategy of liberal... more This paper problematizes the grand strategic interaction between the US grand strategy of liberal hegemony with its corresponding implement of " Pivot " or " Rebalance " in Asia Pacific and the Chinese grand strategy of Peaceful Rise. This interaction generates two crucial paradoxes, namely the " Integration Paradox " for the Chinese grand strategy and the " Entrapment Paradox " for the US grand strategy. Translated to costs, these paradoxes manifest themselves as alliance management costs for both principal actors in the Asia Pacific Theater. The continual adjustment of these costs engenders an unstable strategic environment in the region where the regional states are confronted with the dilemma of investing in dichotomous security and economic partnerships. This paper posits that the emerging geostrategic dynamics in the Asia Pacific will be centered around resolution of this dilemma. Employing the relational contracting theory that views alliances as forms of contracted security relations with their attendant management costs, the four geostrategic dynamics identified in the paper include " alliance erosion " and " coercion " by China, and " entrapment risk reduction " and " enhanced economic integration " by the United States. The paper concludes that the emerging struggle between the principal actors in the region will be over alliances and partnerships.
This paper investigates the links between climate change, the mechanisms of global political econ... more This paper investigates the links between climate change, the mechanisms of global political economy and the pattern of relations among states. Robert Cox's critical theory links the elements of production with the structure of the world order through consideration of the interaction among the triad of: material forces, ideas and institutions, together constituting a historical structure subject to transformation through counter-hegemonic forces. World order as used in this study is defined as the pattern of relations among states constituted as a function of global political economy and held in place by means of institutional hegemony. Thus the impending change in world order due to climate change, in the limited sense of this research, represents a potential change in the structure of global political economy. The paper hypothesizes that the emerging discourses on climate change have the potential to unleash sufficiently powerful social forces to impact the structure of global political economy. The paper takes world order (or the structure of global political economy) as a level of analysis for interaction between the human and the natural world as well as the object of transformation through this interaction. Antonio Gramsci's concept of hegemony and counter-hegemony is used to investigate three climate change discourses with the potential respectively of maintaining, transitioning and transforming the World Order. The paper concludes that the prevailing order is untenable and will either transition over time or will transform, if it meets the projections of its associated discourse.
Climate change is the key issue confronting humanity today. In addition to raising the specter of... more Climate change is the key issue confronting humanity today. In addition to raising the specter of looming ecological disaster, it is also the fundamental human development issue of our time. The impacts of climate change will be transferred to human communities in lopsided proportions with the maximum costs transferred to the poorest and the most vulnerable. Evidently then, fighting poverty and fighting the impacts of climate change have a strategic linkage which needs to be explored for effective policy making. Climate change and human development are locked in dialectic, with changes in one affecting the other. Thus many adverse effects of climate change can be forestalled by focusing on development, and this focus can reciprocally help fighting the causes of climate change. The global climate change regime overseen by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is a complex governance mechanism, with responsibility to coordinate climate change action among states. The global solution to the perils of climate change has crystallized in the form of two competing strategies, mitigation and adaptation, with the former aimed at the causes and the latter at addressing the effects of climate change. Since the developed countries have a disproportionately large carbon footprint, mitigation would not succeed without a cooperative framework involving commitments from all advanced industrialized countries. Meanwhile, the socioeconomic costs will continue to be borne by the less developed countries who must adapt to alleviate the impacts. Closer analysis suggests that current global efforts are biased in favour of mitigation at the cost of adaptation which is more germane to human development. Understanding the reasons for this bias is the key to understanding the mystery surrounding global inaction on adaptation and thus development. This article critically explores the history and functioning of the international climate regime to discover these reasons. The second component of a critical analysis is of course the exploration of alternatives towards positive action. Therefore, an evaluation of the potential of 'microfinance' as a strategy for financing adaptation is also a part of this study. Finally, the employment of microfinance as a strategic approach for adaptation efforts at the societal level is conceptualized with the dual aim of creating employment opportunities and thus poverty alleviation, as well as mobilizing the vast human resource currently neglected in the global discourse on climate change. 2
Teaching Documents by Saquib Mehmood
Iqra University, 2019
This lecture emanates from reflection and synthesis of my past work which encompasses the history... more This lecture emanates from reflection and synthesis of my past work which encompasses the history and functioning of global environmental governance and the interaction between the science of climate change and the social forces. It may be termed as a mid-term review of how accurate or how misguided I was in my analysis and predictions. Let me first briefly summarize my previous argument in order to put the matters in context.
Iqra University, 2019
This lecture emanates from reflection and synthesis of my past work which encompasses the history... more This lecture emanates from reflection and synthesis of my past work which encompasses the history and functioning of global environmental governance and the interaction between the science of climate change and the social forces. It may be termed as a mid-term review of how accurate or how misguided I was in my analysis and predictions. Let me first briefly summarize my previous argument in order to put the matters in context.
Lecture at NDU (Manuscript)
This paper problematizes the " uncertainties " typical to climate science, and in particular to t... more This paper problematizes the " uncertainties " typical to climate science, and in particular to the paradigm of climate simulations. These uncertainties have three major implications. First, the scientific knowledge produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is reliant on consensus for its legitimation; second, abrupt climate change and climate tipping points are underestimated by the IPCC as uncertainties regarding their occurrence are of a magnitude that does not allow consensus; and third, the legitimation practice through consensus also determines the future direction of the political discourse on climate change. The paper posits that these uncertainties lead to a political discourse that favours technological solutions in preference to control over socioeconomic drivers of climate change, and thus serves to conserve the existing structure of global political-economy. The paper examines the issue within the historical structure of modernity due to the anthropogenic origins of climate change associated with the onset of the age of modernity. The paper concludes that the greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) can be controlled through two parallel processes i.e. socioeconomic changes and mitigation through technology, but the former is ignored in favour of the latter.
These lectures aim to examine the political evolution of China to the present times by utilizing ... more These lectures aim to examine the political evolution of China to the present times by utilizing the devices suggested by both Francis Fukuyama and Samuel P. Huntington’s work. In the analysis, Fukuyama’s argument is given precedence but only with a view to impart a chronological structure to the central argument of the essay. Since Huntington’s argument is more relevant to the more recent times, therefore, it finds its application in discussion of contemporary China. The central argument of this essay is that a variety of factors impact the development of political order in a state or society ranging from the original circumstances of a state’s formation, the central principle that the society adopts for according legitimacy to political power, the dominant ideological proclivities of the society as well as its political institutions and finally the impact of material and social changes due to exogenous factors such as technological and economic development.
Thesis Chapters by Saquib Mehmood
The central puzzle that this research aims to address is whether instrumental rationality alone i... more The central puzzle that this research aims to address is whether instrumental rationality alone is the determinant of an actor’s social behaviour. The problem is framed within the context of the debate between the Rationalist and Constructivist scholarship in the discipline of International Relations. Although there are several epistemological, ontological and analytical angles to this debate but two emerge as most relevant to this inquiry. First, whether ideas have any place in formulation of foreign policy of a state; and second, if that is the case then where do they come from and how do they influence this process? Rationalists, represented in this study by neorealists, have resolved the problem through a major move: that is by making units of the international structure functionally similar, states are expected to pursue similar ends based on utility maximization. Thus, grand strategy, which denotes strategic behaviour of states at the highest level, is agnostic with respect to the ends and becomes only a function of means. Constructivists, represented in this study by all schools of thought who consider ideas as partly or entirely influencing strategic action, have not come up with a coherent response. A major theoretical effort made by Alexander Wendt in response to neorealist claims also ends up subsuming the individual identities of the actors in the larger culture of international politics where actors pursue shared goals; and thus the only distinction in their grand strategies is in terms of means. Another category introduced by Constructivists is of Strategic Culture that aims to explain the departure of actors’ strategic conduct from instrumentality due to influence of their cultural proclivities. This also ends up making distinctions among various grand strategies along the scale of means, not of ends. Strategic culturists such as Alastair Iain Johnston also do not take into account the influence of the strategic environment on an actor’s strategic behaviour. This study takes up the matters from here and makes a simple proposition that ideational categories such as culture and ideology are determinants of the ends of grand strategy, not its means. The major theoretical move made in this study is to challenge the neorealist conception of functionally similar units and introduce the category of Civilization-States which in the contemporary era are successors to their old civilizations and culture. Their formative ideologies, represented as worldviews in this study, transmitted across time exert a major influence in formulating the ends of their grand strategies. Engaging with the major concepts of the English School of International Relations, this study proposes a theory of grand strategy in which the actors’ ends as derived from their worldviews are pitched against the international order which represents the strategic environment, and are measured on the scale of revisionism to status quo with respect to it. The theory is then tested by considering the case of China at four points in time. First, at the formative or pre-dynastic period (before 221 BC) and subsequently during the former Han era (202 BC-9 AD) when the Confucian ideology was adopted as official orthodoxy, during late Qing period (1839-1911 AD) when it clashed with the Western international order, and during late Communist period (1976-2015 AD) when China recovered the material basis of its power. The study concludes that the failure of Qing dynasty to maintain the Sino-centric world order was due to internal contradictions in its worldview generated by external influences, and that the contemporary Chinese worldview is not at a major variance from the precepts of the prevalent liberal international order and, therefore, China is only a mildly revisionist state only aiming to slowly erode the United States’ hegemony.
Talks by Saquib Mehmood
TEDx Ziauddin University, 2018
TEDx Talk
Climate change is the key issue confronting humanity today. In addition to raising the specter of... more Climate change is the key issue confronting humanity today. In addition to raising the specter of looming ecological disaster, it is also the fundamental human development issue of our time. The impacts of climate change will be transferred to human communities in lopsided proportions with the maximum costs transferred to the poorest and the most vulnerable. Evidently then, fighting poverty and fighting the impacts of climate change have a strategic linkage which needs to be explored for effective policy making. Climate change and human development are locked in dialectic, with changes in one affecting the other. Thus many adverse effects of climate change can be forestalled by focusing on development, and this focus can reciprocally help fighting the causes of climate change. The global climate change regime overseen by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is a complex governance mechanism, with responsibility to coordinate climate change action among states. The global solution to the perils of climate change has crystallized in the form of two competing strategies, mitigation and adaptation, with the former aimed at the causes and the latter at addressing the effects of climate change. Since the developed countries have a disproportionately large carbon footprint, mitigation would not succeed without a cooperative framework involving commitments from all advanced industrialized countries. Meanwhile, the socioeconomic costs will continue to be borne by the less developed countries who must adapt to alleviate the impacts. Closer analysis suggests that current global efforts are biased in favour of mitigation at the cost of adaptation which is more germane to human development. Understanding the reasons for this bias is the key to understanding the mystery surrounding global inaction on adaptation and thus development. This article critically explores the history and functioning of the international climate regime to discover these reasons. The second component of a critical analysis is of course the exploration of alternatives towards positive action. Therefore, an evaluation of the potential of 'microfinance' as a strategy for financing adaptation is also a part of this study. Finally, the employment of microfinance as a strategic approach for adaptation efforts at the societal level is conceptualized with the dual aim of creating employment opportunities and thus poverty alleviation, as well as mobilizing the vast human resource currently neglected in the global discourse on climate change. 2
This paper aims to: Determine viability of NDN as an independent supply route through an evalua... more This paper aims to:
Determine viability of NDN as an independent supply route through an evaluation of existing and projected logistic requirements against the infrastructural constraints.
Examine geopolitical and geoeconomic facets of the issue through evaluation of the regional perspective and feasibility of long term infrastructure development proposals.
Identify challenges and opportunities for Pakistan in the medium to long term in the wake of this development.
Recommend measures to minimize the immediate adverse effects of activation of northern routes for Pakistan while focusing on medium and long term benefits from the project
This essay explores the dynamics of Indian grand strategy through the framework of Alastair Iain ... more This essay explores the dynamics of Indian grand strategy through the framework of Alastair Iain Johnston's theory of strategic culture. The essay contends that within the prevalent discursive paradigms, Nehruvianism remains the dominant Indian strategic culture due to its attraction to a broad spectrum of Indian thinkers as well as its utility in serving as a point of reference for other paradigms. Exploring only the " Central Paradigm " or the " Symbolic Discourse " of Nehruvianism, the paper posits that the symbolic discourse of a strategic culture is not viewed uniformly across different societies and thus subject to a variety of interpretations based on historical experience of each society. Adopting the post-structural textual strategy of deconstruction of a discourse through double reading, the essay reinterprets the symbolic discourse of Nehruvianism from a Pakistani perspective. It concludes that the widely differing interpretations of the same discourse in India and Pakistan are reflective of the limitations of discourse interpretation, and that durable peace may be achieved in case of India through shifting the discourse to the moderating influence of Nehruvianism and in case of Pakistan through shedding the Kautiliyan glasses which it uses to interpret its symbolic discourse.
A thematic analysis of Kaplan's book engaging with the sources, and inspirations behind the work.
We have investigated the problem of C.splendens abundance on Unguja Island, Zanzibar despite repe... more We have investigated the problem of C.splendens abundance on Unguja Island, Zanzibar despite repeated attempts to contain it. We found that past efforts were based on culling programmes which reduced the abundance as long as the programmes lasted, but the problem resurfaced shortly after conclusion of these programmes allegedly due to paucity of funding. We have focused in particular on the two latest culling events on the Island, first in the early to mid 1990s and the second, between 2012 and 2013. We developed two population models to analyze population dynamics in two different types of habitats which we identified on the Island. We categorized these habitats on the basis of “access” to food in relation to its “abundance”. The first imposes a spatial constraint on carrying capacity due to limited access to resource irrespective of its abundance, and a simple Ricker density dependent model was applied to analyze it. We termed it, Type-1 habitat. Type-2 habitat is not constrained by space and its carrying capacity increases over time. We, therefore, developed a population model for a habitat with increasing carrying capacity, taking into account the anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic factors which affect food abundance. We also reconstructed past population estimates on the basis of our habitat classification and found that the C.splendens abundance was over estimated by at least 100% in the last survey conducted in 2009 due to methodological and processing errors. Model results indicated that culling was ineffective in containing abundance in the past because the population rebounded at higher rates of growth at the conclusion of programmes, due to resolution of space or food contest. We then identified three possible pathways on the two models to control the problem. We found that the “food access reduction pathway” which is focused on controlling anthropogenic organic surplus through waste management with no culling, offered the most effective, resource efficient and durable solution. The culling only pathway offered the least effective, resource inefficient and temporary resolution of the problem. The combination pathway (culling and access reduction) offered equal benefits as the access reduction pathway but was the most resource inefficient and the contribution of culling in it wore off as soon as it was terminated.
This paper problematizes the grand strategic interaction between the US grand strategy of liberal... more This paper problematizes the grand strategic interaction between the US grand strategy of liberal hegemony with its corresponding implement of " Pivot " or " Rebalance " in Asia Pacific and the Chinese grand strategy of Peaceful Rise. This interaction generates two crucial paradoxes, namely the " Integration Paradox " for the Chinese grand strategy and the " Entrapment Paradox " for the US grand strategy. Translated to costs, these paradoxes manifest themselves as alliance management costs for both principal actors in the Asia Pacific Theater. The continual adjustment of these costs engenders an unstable strategic environment in the region where the regional states are confronted with the dilemma of investing in dichotomous security and economic partnerships. This paper posits that the emerging geostrategic dynamics in the Asia Pacific will be centered around resolution of this dilemma. Employing the relational contracting theory that views alliances as forms of contracted security relations with their attendant management costs, the four geostrategic dynamics identified in the paper include " alliance erosion " and " coercion " by China, and " entrapment risk reduction " and " enhanced economic integration " by the United States. The paper concludes that the emerging struggle between the principal actors in the region will be over alliances and partnerships.
This paper investigates the links between climate change, the mechanisms of global political econ... more This paper investigates the links between climate change, the mechanisms of global political economy and the pattern of relations among states. Robert Cox's critical theory links the elements of production with the structure of the world order through consideration of the interaction among the triad of: material forces, ideas and institutions, together constituting a historical structure subject to transformation through counter-hegemonic forces. World order as used in this study is defined as the pattern of relations among states constituted as a function of global political economy and held in place by means of institutional hegemony. Thus the impending change in world order due to climate change, in the limited sense of this research, represents a potential change in the structure of global political economy. The paper hypothesizes that the emerging discourses on climate change have the potential to unleash sufficiently powerful social forces to impact the structure of global political economy. The paper takes world order (or the structure of global political economy) as a level of analysis for interaction between the human and the natural world as well as the object of transformation through this interaction. Antonio Gramsci's concept of hegemony and counter-hegemony is used to investigate three climate change discourses with the potential respectively of maintaining, transitioning and transforming the World Order. The paper concludes that the prevailing order is untenable and will either transition over time or will transform, if it meets the projections of its associated discourse.
Climate change is the key issue confronting humanity today. In addition to raising the specter of... more Climate change is the key issue confronting humanity today. In addition to raising the specter of looming ecological disaster, it is also the fundamental human development issue of our time. The impacts of climate change will be transferred to human communities in lopsided proportions with the maximum costs transferred to the poorest and the most vulnerable. Evidently then, fighting poverty and fighting the impacts of climate change have a strategic linkage which needs to be explored for effective policy making. Climate change and human development are locked in dialectic, with changes in one affecting the other. Thus many adverse effects of climate change can be forestalled by focusing on development, and this focus can reciprocally help fighting the causes of climate change. The global climate change regime overseen by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is a complex governance mechanism, with responsibility to coordinate climate change action among states. The global solution to the perils of climate change has crystallized in the form of two competing strategies, mitigation and adaptation, with the former aimed at the causes and the latter at addressing the effects of climate change. Since the developed countries have a disproportionately large carbon footprint, mitigation would not succeed without a cooperative framework involving commitments from all advanced industrialized countries. Meanwhile, the socioeconomic costs will continue to be borne by the less developed countries who must adapt to alleviate the impacts. Closer analysis suggests that current global efforts are biased in favour of mitigation at the cost of adaptation which is more germane to human development. Understanding the reasons for this bias is the key to understanding the mystery surrounding global inaction on adaptation and thus development. This article critically explores the history and functioning of the international climate regime to discover these reasons. The second component of a critical analysis is of course the exploration of alternatives towards positive action. Therefore, an evaluation of the potential of 'microfinance' as a strategy for financing adaptation is also a part of this study. Finally, the employment of microfinance as a strategic approach for adaptation efforts at the societal level is conceptualized with the dual aim of creating employment opportunities and thus poverty alleviation, as well as mobilizing the vast human resource currently neglected in the global discourse on climate change. 2
Iqra University, 2019
This lecture emanates from reflection and synthesis of my past work which encompasses the history... more This lecture emanates from reflection and synthesis of my past work which encompasses the history and functioning of global environmental governance and the interaction between the science of climate change and the social forces. It may be termed as a mid-term review of how accurate or how misguided I was in my analysis and predictions. Let me first briefly summarize my previous argument in order to put the matters in context.
Iqra University, 2019
This lecture emanates from reflection and synthesis of my past work which encompasses the history... more This lecture emanates from reflection and synthesis of my past work which encompasses the history and functioning of global environmental governance and the interaction between the science of climate change and the social forces. It may be termed as a mid-term review of how accurate or how misguided I was in my analysis and predictions. Let me first briefly summarize my previous argument in order to put the matters in context.
Lecture at NDU (Manuscript)
This paper problematizes the " uncertainties " typical to climate science, and in particular to t... more This paper problematizes the " uncertainties " typical to climate science, and in particular to the paradigm of climate simulations. These uncertainties have three major implications. First, the scientific knowledge produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is reliant on consensus for its legitimation; second, abrupt climate change and climate tipping points are underestimated by the IPCC as uncertainties regarding their occurrence are of a magnitude that does not allow consensus; and third, the legitimation practice through consensus also determines the future direction of the political discourse on climate change. The paper posits that these uncertainties lead to a political discourse that favours technological solutions in preference to control over socioeconomic drivers of climate change, and thus serves to conserve the existing structure of global political-economy. The paper examines the issue within the historical structure of modernity due to the anthropogenic origins of climate change associated with the onset of the age of modernity. The paper concludes that the greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) can be controlled through two parallel processes i.e. socioeconomic changes and mitigation through technology, but the former is ignored in favour of the latter.
These lectures aim to examine the political evolution of China to the present times by utilizing ... more These lectures aim to examine the political evolution of China to the present times by utilizing the devices suggested by both Francis Fukuyama and Samuel P. Huntington’s work. In the analysis, Fukuyama’s argument is given precedence but only with a view to impart a chronological structure to the central argument of the essay. Since Huntington’s argument is more relevant to the more recent times, therefore, it finds its application in discussion of contemporary China. The central argument of this essay is that a variety of factors impact the development of political order in a state or society ranging from the original circumstances of a state’s formation, the central principle that the society adopts for according legitimacy to political power, the dominant ideological proclivities of the society as well as its political institutions and finally the impact of material and social changes due to exogenous factors such as technological and economic development.
The central puzzle that this research aims to address is whether instrumental rationality alone i... more The central puzzle that this research aims to address is whether instrumental rationality alone is the determinant of an actor’s social behaviour. The problem is framed within the context of the debate between the Rationalist and Constructivist scholarship in the discipline of International Relations. Although there are several epistemological, ontological and analytical angles to this debate but two emerge as most relevant to this inquiry. First, whether ideas have any place in formulation of foreign policy of a state; and second, if that is the case then where do they come from and how do they influence this process? Rationalists, represented in this study by neorealists, have resolved the problem through a major move: that is by making units of the international structure functionally similar, states are expected to pursue similar ends based on utility maximization. Thus, grand strategy, which denotes strategic behaviour of states at the highest level, is agnostic with respect to the ends and becomes only a function of means. Constructivists, represented in this study by all schools of thought who consider ideas as partly or entirely influencing strategic action, have not come up with a coherent response. A major theoretical effort made by Alexander Wendt in response to neorealist claims also ends up subsuming the individual identities of the actors in the larger culture of international politics where actors pursue shared goals; and thus the only distinction in their grand strategies is in terms of means. Another category introduced by Constructivists is of Strategic Culture that aims to explain the departure of actors’ strategic conduct from instrumentality due to influence of their cultural proclivities. This also ends up making distinctions among various grand strategies along the scale of means, not of ends. Strategic culturists such as Alastair Iain Johnston also do not take into account the influence of the strategic environment on an actor’s strategic behaviour. This study takes up the matters from here and makes a simple proposition that ideational categories such as culture and ideology are determinants of the ends of grand strategy, not its means. The major theoretical move made in this study is to challenge the neorealist conception of functionally similar units and introduce the category of Civilization-States which in the contemporary era are successors to their old civilizations and culture. Their formative ideologies, represented as worldviews in this study, transmitted across time exert a major influence in formulating the ends of their grand strategies. Engaging with the major concepts of the English School of International Relations, this study proposes a theory of grand strategy in which the actors’ ends as derived from their worldviews are pitched against the international order which represents the strategic environment, and are measured on the scale of revisionism to status quo with respect to it. The theory is then tested by considering the case of China at four points in time. First, at the formative or pre-dynastic period (before 221 BC) and subsequently during the former Han era (202 BC-9 AD) when the Confucian ideology was adopted as official orthodoxy, during late Qing period (1839-1911 AD) when it clashed with the Western international order, and during late Communist period (1976-2015 AD) when China recovered the material basis of its power. The study concludes that the failure of Qing dynasty to maintain the Sino-centric world order was due to internal contradictions in its worldview generated by external influences, and that the contemporary Chinese worldview is not at a major variance from the precepts of the prevalent liberal international order and, therefore, China is only a mildly revisionist state only aiming to slowly erode the United States’ hegemony.
TEDx Ziauddin University, 2018
TEDx Talk