Dr. Santosh Murlidhar Pingale | National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee (original) (raw)

Papers by Dr. Santosh Murlidhar Pingale

Sustainable Water Resources Management

In the present study, climate change effects on surface water availability and crop water demand ... more In the present study, climate change effects on surface water availability and crop water demand (CWD) were evaluated in the Birr watershed (a sub-watershed of Abbay Basin), Ethiopia. The Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)-Africa data output of Hadley Global Environment Model 2-Earth System (HadGEM2-ES) was selected under the representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios. The seasonal and annual streamflow trends in the watershed were assessed using the Mann–Kendall (MK) test and Sen’s slope at 5% significance level. The surface water availability was assessed using the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) model. The HBV model showed a satisfactory performance during calibration (R2 = 0.89) and validation (R2 = 0.85). The future water availability was simulated under climate change scenarios. The future projected streamflow indicates that minimum flow may decrease under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, revealing significant downward shifts in the years 2035 and 2055, respectively. Similarly, the 1 day and 7 days maximum flow under RCP8.5 and 90 days flow under RCP4.5 are expected to decrease significantly and a considerable shift may occur in the 2060s and 2030s, respectively. Contrarily, both the minimum and maximum flow may not change significantly under the RCP2.6 scenario. Current and future water demand for the maize crop was estimated using the CROPWAT. The result indicated that irrigation water requirement (IWR) for maize crop may be increased throughout the growing periods, especially, during the development stage. Therefore, this study may contribute to the planning and implementation of the sustainable water resources development strategies and help to mitigate the consequences of climatic change, especially on commonly grown crops in the region.

International Journal of Hydrology, Jan 4, 2018

Water resources problem issues have been the focus of increasing international concern and discus... more Water resources problem issues have been the focus of increasing international concern and discussions. Water resources are the main economic background of a country. In recent years, the amount of renewable water resources in the world decreased by the increasing number of population and water demand, climate change, pollution, deforestation and urbanization. These problems are still prominent issues in Huai River basin. Generally, the main problems faced in the basin are climate change effect, flooding, water shortage and water pollution. The rate of those problems in Huai river basin is higher than other river basins of China. Since the area is highly productive but the amount of water resources does not satisfy the demand for different purposes. To solve those problems researchers and stakeholders must find a long-term solution by identifying the affected areas. This paper presents the overview of water resources problem of the basin for future study, action plan, and work.

Groundwater is an important component of the hydrologic cycle and its significance is quite high ... more Groundwater is an important component of the hydrologic cycle and its significance is quite high due to the lack of surface water and is an important source of fresh water. The amount of surface water alone is not enough to meet the demands of increasing population and increased needs for different purposes due to technological advances. Hence, the need of the hour is to increase groundwater sources and manage them effectively for their sustainable growth. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to map groundwater potential (GWP) zones of the Shipra river basin in India using advanced machine learning and geospatial techniques. Nine factors were used as effective factors such as slope degree, altitude, plan curvature, topographic wetness index (TWI), profile curvature, topographic factor, drainage density, slope aspect, and land use/land cover. The models adopted in this study were classification and regression tree (CART), boosted regression tree (BRT), and random forest (RF...

Rapid urbanization and quest for development at individual and State level necessitate the urge f... more Rapid urbanization and quest for development at individual and State level necessitate the urge for exploring the consequences of it on the natural resources available. In the present paper, an attempt has been made to assess the land use/land cover (LULC) change and urban water demand for the Dehradun city from the Indian Himalayan region over the period of time. The urban water demand was calculated by using census data and is further extrapolated to 2050 by using polynomial trend line. The LULC changes were analysed for the years 2001 to 2018 using geospatial techniques. The six different LULC classes were identified in the study area which includes agriculture, barren land, forest, shrubs, urban settlement and water. The significant variations have been observed in areas of urban settlement class (increase by 73.53%) and agriculture class (decrease by 49.67%) from 2001 to 2018. This was well depicted through change detection matrix. The results also indicated that the urbanizati...

Proper planning and management of available natural resources is necessary for progress and econo... more Proper planning and management of available natural resources is necessary for progress and economic development in agriculture which are main stay of people leaving in the hilly region. The morphometric analysis of watershed coupled with soil, land use and slope can play a vital role in predicting the hydrological behavior of a watershed, engineering and site suitability aspect. An attempt has been made to study the morphometric characteristics of Maun watershed which is located in Tehri-Garhwal district of Uttarakhand. The study area is located between 78 o 22‟ 28” to 78 o 24‟ 57”E longitude and 30 o 17‟ 19” to 30 o 18‟ 52”N latitude and covers an area of 8.71 km 2 . The qualitative analysis of the morphometric characteristics of the basin have been done and computed using GIS software. The drainage network in the study area is dendritic to sub-dendritic which indicates the influence of lithology and terrain on drainage pattern. The results clearly indicate relations among various...

Arabian Journal of Geosciences

The impact of land use/land cover (LULC) change on the stream flow of the Shaya catchment was ass... more The impact of land use/land cover (LULC) change on the stream flow of the Shaya catchment was assessed by employing the MIKE SHE hydrological model. The digital elevation model, soil, LULC, climate, and stream flow data were used as model inputs. The LULC was analyzed from different years of satellite imageries using ERDAS IMAGINE software package and its accuracy was verified following the standard procedures. Trend and shift detection analysis were also conducted to study the effect of rainfall on stream flow using the Mann–Kendall (MK) and Pettit tests, respectively. The result showed that there is a significant expansion of settlement and agricultural area, while there was a decrease of bare land, forest, and bush land in the catchment. In contrary, rangeland was increased from the year 1987 to 2000 and then decreased from 2000 to 2015. The performance of the MIKE SHE hydrological model was very good both during model calibration and validation periods. It has been observed that rainfall did not show any significant trends and shifts, but the stream flow was increased significantly in the two decades. In this study, the effects of LULC change on the stream flow in the study area have been distinguished: the mean monthly stream flow was increased during the wet season, while it was decreased during the dry season. Therefore, we recommend concerned bodies to monitor and take appropriate control of the LULC changes, especially settlement and deforestation, before it makes acute problems of the hydrologic imbalance in the catchment.

Hydrological Sciences Journal

ABSTRACT Land use/land cover (LULC) changes due to natural and anthropogenic interference have al... more ABSTRACT Land use/land cover (LULC) changes due to natural and anthropogenic interference have altered the hydrological processes of the Omo-Gibe basin, Ethiopia. In this study, hydrological modelling and remote sensing techniques were used to assess LULC changes in water availability in the basin. The LULCs were classified from satellite imagery from 1987 to 2017 using normalized difference indices, and the changes were observed to be significant for the basin. The calibration and validation performance of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model using the observed streamflow and sediment yield for the basin was satisfactory. Afterwards, the SWAT was used to simulate the runoffs and sediment yields for different management practices such as introducing filter strips, parallel terracing, and reforestation. The sediment yields in critical sub-basins of Omo-Gibe reduced significantly on reforestation as the best practice. The study outputs are helpful for the various stakeholders and policymakers in managing water resources properly.

Modeling Earth Systems and Environment

In the present study, the rainfall-runoff modeling was carried out using MIKE 11 NAM model at the... more In the present study, the rainfall-runoff modeling was carried out using MIKE 11 NAM model at the Shaya catchment in Ethiopia. The nine parameters of the model were optimized using observed rainfall, evaporation and observed streamflow during calibration (1990–2008) of the model. The validation of the model was done using an independent data for the period from 2009 to 2015. The model performance was evaluated using statistical performance indicators, such as correlation coefficient ( R ), Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient (NSE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Percentage of Bias (PBAIS). The model performance was showed a good agreement between the observed and simulated runoff during the calibration ( R = 0.93; NSE = 0.86; RMSE = 3.16 and PBIAS = − 1.58) and validation ( R = 0.92; NSE = 0.83; RMSE = 4.04 and PBIAS = − 0.88). The results revealed that there is a very good agreement between the observed and computed runoff, particularly the low runoff compared to the high runoff in the Shaya catchment. High flow phenomena are often not caught by hydrological models but the low and average flows do. Therefore, this indicates that the model can be used for future hydrological modeling in the area successfully.

Earth Systems and Environment

The present study examines the trends of hydro-climatic parameters over the Black Volta Basin in ... more The present study examines the trends of hydro-climatic parameters over the Black Volta Basin in Ghana. Trend analysis was carried at different time scales (i.e., monthly, seasonal, and annual) from 1961 to 2016. Modified Mann–Kendall (MMK) test, Sen’s slope estimates, and Pettit–Mann–Whitney test were applied to compute the existence of a trend, the degree of change, and probable change point, respectively. The results revealed that there are warming trends over the entire Black Volta Basin. Both temperature extremes, i.e., highest and lowest (annual, seasonal, and monthly scale), for upstream and downstream region revealed an increasing trend. The annual rainfall in the upstream region depicted a downward trend, while downstream showed an increasing trend in the Basin. The seasonal trend analysis for rainfall depicted a falling trend (@ Sen’s slopes − 0.47 and − 0.69) with a percentage change over the 56 years − 19.66% and − 19.30%, respectively, for upstream and downstream regions during the dry periods. While, the rainy season showed a decreasing rainfall trend (@ Sen’s slope − 0.71 and percentage change − 4.41%) for the upstream region and increasing (@ + 0.71 & 4.39%) for the downstream. However, annual rainfall for the sites in the Basin depicted a decreasing trend (@ − 0.88 and − 4.76%) for upstream and an increasing trend (@ + 0.16 with 0.81% change) for downstream region. Annual streamflow revealed an increasing trend (@ + 0.02 with a 1.53% change) over the 43 years for upstream and a decreasing trend (@—0.41 and − 15.04% change) for downstream region at Chache-Bole. Therefore, this study output will be helpful for different stakeholders and policymakers within the Black Volta Basin of the West African sub-region toward improving decisions on water resources management.

Meteorological Applications

International Journal of Hydrology

Applied Geomatics

The present study was carried out to identify the extent of flood hazard on the Fogera floodplain... more The present study was carried out to identify the extent of flood hazard on the Fogera floodplain in the Ribb catchment of the Blue Nile River basin in Ethiopia. A coupled 1 dimensional (D) and 2D hydrodynamic model (i.e., MIKE FLOOD) was used to simulate the flood inundation extent and flooding depth under climate change scenario in the study area. MIKE FLOOD coupled with a SWAT was used to simulate the floods hazard maps under short-term (2030s) and long-term (the 2060s) future climate projections for the RCP4.5 scenario. The results were revealed that the future minimum and maximum temperature can be increased to 1.99 °C and 2.65 °C, respectively. The average annual rainfall can be increased in the future. The dimensionless inflow hydrograph was best fitted with Gumbel distribution for the 100 years return period. This was derived from an output of the hydrological model and then fed into MIKE FLOOD to generate the flood hazard maps. The intensity of annual floods was indicated an increasing trend under the RCP4.5 scenario. The model was calibrated using the historical hydro-meteorological data, measured River cross-section data, and Lake Tana water level. The result of flood frequency analysis showed that a flow value of 100 year return period can be expected to 290 m3/s, 346 m3/s, and 367 m3/s for historical, short-term, and long-term time periods, respectively. The prepared flood hazard map indicated that the flooded area can be expected to 57.72 km2, 59.3 km2, and 61.01 km2 for the base period, 2030s, and 2060s, respectively, while the depth of inundated flood flow in the study area may be anticipated to a depth of 4.23 m, 4.68 m, and 4.96 m for similar time periods, respectively. Therefore, this study will be helpful for the decision makers to take the decision about the planning for the flood mitigation measures in the study region.

Applied Geomatics

In this study, the impact of land use/land cover (LULC) change and climate variability on hydrolo... more In this study, the impact of land use/land cover (LULC) change and climate variability on hydrological processes was assessed and simulated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in the Upper Brantas river basin, Indonesia. The Mann–Kendall (MK) test was used to analyze the spatial variations and temporal trends of the hydro-climatic variables in the basin. The model performance was assessed by using statistical indicators like coefficient of determination (R2), Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSE), the ratio of root mean square error to measured standard deviation (RSR), and percentage bias (PBIAS). These were found to be 0.905, 0.997, 0.061, and 5.7 during calibration and 0.916, 0.995, 0.071, and −6.967 during validation, respectively. During 1989–2006, LULC changes were found to be 26.12% forest, converted to 1.3% grassland, 0.03% water, 14.58% urban area, 6.77% mixed plants, and 3.44% rice fields. The integrated effects of the LULC change and climate variability decreased surface runoff, groundwater, lateral flow, and streamflow by −4.44, −2.27, −4.47, and −5.50%, respectively, but evapotranspiration (ET) increased to 0.63%. LULC change increased surface runoff by 20.14%, ET 0.03%, and streamflow 0.29%, but decreased in groundwater by −9.65% and lateral flow by −3.70%. The climate variability decreased surface runoff, groundwater, lateral flow, and streamflow by −19.07, −1.50, −0.53, and −5.78%, respectively. Both climate variability and LULC changes influence the hydrological processes. Therefore, this study recommends that the above two aspects should be taken into consideration for water resources planning and management in the study region in Indonesia.

Water

In most of the Indian cities, around half of the urban water requirement is fulfilled by groundwa... more In most of the Indian cities, around half of the urban water requirement is fulfilled by groundwater. Recently, seasonal urban droughts have been frequently witnessed globally, which adds more stress to groundwater systems. Excessive pumping and increasing demands in several Indian cities impose a high risk of running out of groundwater storage, which could potentially affect millions of lives in the future. In this paper, groundwater level changes have been comprehensively assessed for seven densely populated and rapidly growing secondary cities across India. Several statistical analyses were performed to detect the trends and non-stationarity in the groundwater level (GWL). Also, the influence of rainfall and land use/land cover changes (LULC) on the GWL was explored. The results suggest that overall, the groundwater level was found to vary between ±10 cm/year in the majority of the wells. Further, the non-stationarity analysis revealed a high impact of rainfall and LULC due to cl...

springer, 2019

In the present study, climate change effects on surface water availability and crop water demand ... more In the present study, climate change effects on surface water availability and crop water demand (CWD) were evaluated in
the Birr watershed (a sub-watershed of Abbay Basin), Ethiopia. The Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment
(CORDEX)-Africa data output of Hadley Global Environment Model 2-Earth System (HadGEM2-ES) was selected under
the representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios. The seasonal and annual streamflow trends in the watershed
were assessed using the Mann–Kendall (MK) test and Sen’s slope at 5% significance level. The surface water availability
was assessed using the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) model. The HBV model showed a satisfactory
performance during calibration (R2 = 0.89) and validation (R2 = 0.85). The future water availability was simulated under
climate change scenarios. The future projected streamflow indicates that minimum flow may decrease under RCP4.5 and
RCP8.5 scenarios, revealing significant downward shifts in the years 2035 and 2055, respectively. Similarly, the 1 day and
7 days maximum flow under RCP8.5 and 90 days flow under RCP4.5 are expected to decrease significantly and a considerable shift may occur in the 2060s and 2030s, respectively. Contrarily, both the minimum and maximum flow may not
change significantly under the RCP2.6 scenario. Current and future water demand for the maize crop was estimated using
the CROPWAT. The result indicated that irrigation water requirement (IWR) for maize crop may be increased throughout
the growing periods, especially, during the development stage. Therefore, this study may contribute to the planning and
implementation of the sustainable water resources development strategies and help to mitigate the consequences of climatic
change, especially on commonly grown crops in the region.
Keywords CWD · IWR · HBV model · Trend analysis · Climate change · Ethiopia

Sustainable Water Resources Management

International Journal of Hydrology, Jan 4, 2018

Arabian Journal of Geosciences

Hydrological Sciences Journal

Modeling Earth Systems and Environment

Earth Systems and Environment

Meteorological Applications

International Journal of Hydrology

Applied Geomatics

Water

springer, 2019

In the present study, climate change effects on surface water availability and crop water demand ... more In the present study, climate change effects on surface water availability and crop water demand (CWD) were evaluated in
the Birr watershed (a sub-watershed of Abbay Basin), Ethiopia. The Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment
(CORDEX)-Africa data output of Hadley Global Environment Model 2-Earth System (HadGEM2-ES) was selected under
the representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios. The seasonal and annual streamflow trends in the watershed
were assessed using the Mann–Kendall (MK) test and Sen’s slope at 5% significance level. The surface water availability
was assessed using the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) model. The HBV model showed a satisfactory
performance during calibration (R2 = 0.89) and validation (R2 = 0.85). The future water availability was simulated under
climate change scenarios. The future projected streamflow indicates that minimum flow may decrease under RCP4.5 and
RCP8.5 scenarios, revealing significant downward shifts in the years 2035 and 2055, respectively. Similarly, the 1 day and
7 days maximum flow under RCP8.5 and 90 days flow under RCP4.5 are expected to decrease significantly and a considerable shift may occur in the 2060s and 2030s, respectively. Contrarily, both the minimum and maximum flow may not
change significantly under the RCP2.6 scenario. Current and future water demand for the maize crop was estimated using
the CROPWAT. The result indicated that irrigation water requirement (IWR) for maize crop may be increased throughout
the growing periods, especially, during the development stage. Therefore, this study may contribute to the planning and
implementation of the sustainable water resources development strategies and help to mitigate the consequences of climatic
change, especially on commonly grown crops in the region.
Keywords CWD · IWR · HBV model · Trend analysis · Climate change · Ethiopia