Roger Pulwarty | National Oceanographic Data Center (original) (raw)
Papers by Roger Pulwarty
Science, 2013
Adaptation requires science that analyzes decisions, identifies vulnerabilities, improves foresig... more Adaptation requires science that analyzes decisions, identifies vulnerabilities, improves foresight, and develops options.
Analyses of temporal (and spatial) variability in a wide range of ocean and atmospheric indices s... more Analyses of temporal (and spatial) variability in a wide range of ocean and atmospheric indices suggest that the annual cycle plays a central role in virtually all of the recognized principal modes of large-scale climatic variability (intraseasonal variability, tropospheric quasi -biennial oscillation, El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events). The major research objective of this thesis is a study of the nature and controls of processes, associated with variability in convection on these timescales, over the region of the South American "monsoon". Variability on multiple timescales are examined using empirical orthogonal functions, lagged correlations and singular spectrum analysis. Unique aspects of the annual cycle of convection over tropical South America are documented in detail. The study shows that the controls of convection and circulation differ from the Northern Hemisphere summer maximum, over Panama and the eastern tropical Pacific, to that in the Amazon Basin...
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts, Dec 1, 2018
... Drought as Hazard: Understanding the Natural and Social Context 17 ervoir and lake levels ...... more ... Drought as Hazard: Understanding the Natural and Social Context 17 ervoir and lake levels ... Monitoring these coping strategies provides a good indicator of the impact of drought on the ... early warning system with a broader remitto warn of other natural disasters and sometimes ...
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts, Dec 1, 2008
Greater energy demands are driving development of domestic energy resources and advancement of fo... more Greater energy demands are driving development of domestic energy resources and advancement of fossil- fuel independent energy technologies. However, water is necessary for most energy production. Greenhouse gas emissions are increasing global temperatures, impacting the quality and quantity of water resources. Warming temperatures are also altering the timing and nature of energy demand. As water is necessary for energy production,
AGUFM, Dec 1, 2008
ABSTRACT Greater energy demands are driving development of domestic energy resources and advancem... more ABSTRACT Greater energy demands are driving development of domestic energy resources and advancement of fossil- fuel independent energy technologies. However, water is necessary for most energy production. Greenhouse gas emissions are increasing global temperatures, impacting the quality and quantity of water resources. Warming temperatures are also altering the timing and nature of energy demand. As water is necessary for energy production, and energy is needed for the water supply, climate change will further exacerbate the interplay between these two sectors and create additional challenges in adaptive planning. The geology of Colorado is such that it has both carbon (oil shale, coal, coal-bed methane) and non-fossil-fuel (geothermal, winds) energy resources. There is an increasing need to develop these resources, but the impact on the region's water supply is often neglected, as is the energy required to support the water infrastructure. The Western US is prone to drought, and Colorado has experienced periodic drought throughout the observational record. Temperatures in Colorado have risen by about 1°C in the past 30 years, and are projected to increase an additional 2°C by 2050. Precipitation is highly variable and will continue to be in the future, but more severe and persistent droughts are anticipated. To investigate the impact of climate change on the energy-water nexus, in order to evaluate the information necessary to undertake more comprehensive regional impact and adaptation studies, the energy intensity of Colorado's water systems, and water usage by energy sector, are presented. The interdependence of water and energy necessitates that scientists work with decision-makers and consider both sectors when developing climate adaptation strategies. This work represents initial efforts towards a more comprehensive, collaborative analysis of climate change impacts on water and energy supply in support of adaptive management approaches in the Western US.
EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts, May 1, 2014
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts, Dec 1, 2018
AGUFM, Dec 1, 2010
The Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) is the focus of the first pilot regional drought early warn... more The Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) is the focus of the first pilot regional drought early warning information system of the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS). In partnership with resource managers from across the basin, a program of needs assessments, collaborative processes, research, and applications was designed and is being implemented. Priority actions involve the drought-sensitive decisions of large reservoir operators, water providers dependent on inter-basin transfers, and ecosystem managers. Identification of drought monitoring and forecasting needs has led to an ongoing UCRB drought monitoring process organized under the leadership of the Colorado state climatologist. Weekly webinars during spring runoff (monthly during the rest of the year) review the latest science, observations and forecasts for variables like streamflow, precipitation, temperature, snowpack, and reservoir storage. Research and applications projects support this collaborative process by developing new insights and tools for drought impact analyses. They include review and improvement of drought indices used in the UCRB, and new tools for making custom, locally-relevant indicators; spatial analysis of water demand in the basin; a low-flow impacts database, including environmental considerations; linkage of National Weather Service climate and hydrological modeling; a monitoring gaps assessment; and enhanced web access to drought information specific to the UCRB via the NIDIS portal. Lessons learned during 2010 will be applied during a second annual cycle in 2011 and then placed in the context of longer-term planning strategies. The findings of the pilot will provide the basis for the design of innovative and sustained practices in the UCRB, as well as expansion of the early warning system to include the Lower Colorado River Basin and to inform adaptation across multiple timescales. The UCRB effort highlights the role of pilot design and implementation as mechanisms for engaging active partnerships among Federal, state, tribal and local entities in responding to a changing environment.
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts, Dec 1, 2013
ABSTRACT BODY: The planning and decision processes in the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Pro... more ABSTRACT BODY: The planning and decision processes in the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program (GCDAMP) strive to balance numerous, often competing, objectives, such as, water supply, hydropower generation, low flow maintenance, maximizing conservation of downstream tributary sand supply, endangered native fish, and other sociocultural resources of Glen Canyon National Recreation Area and Grand Canyon National Park. In this context, use of monitored and predictive information on the warm season floods (at point-to-regional scales) has been identified as lead-information for a new 10-year long controlled flooding experiment (termed the High-Flow Experiment Protocol) intended to determine management options for rebuilding and maintaining sandbars in Grand Canyon; an adaptive strategy that can potentially facilitate improved planning and dam operations. In this work, we focus on a key concern identified by the GCDAMP, related to the timing and volume of tributary sand input from the Paria and Little Colorado Rivers (located 26 and 124 km below the dam, respectively) into the Colorado River in Grand Canyon National Park. Episodic and intraseasonal variations (with links to equatorial and sub-tropical Pacific sea surface temperature variability) in the southwest hydroclimatology are investigated to understand the magnitude, timing and spatial scales of warm season floods from this relatively small, but prolific sand producing drainage of the semi-arid Colorado Plateau. The coupled variations of the flood-driven sediment input (magnitude and timing) from these two drainages into the Colorado River are also investigated. The physical processes, including diagnosis of storms and moisture sources, are mapped alongside the planning and decision processes for the ongoing experimental flood releases from the Glen Canyon Dam which are aimed at achieving restoration and maintenance of sandbars and instream ecology. The GCDAMP represents one of the most visible and widely recognized adaptive management efforts in the world to manage resources under growing environmental uncertainty as climate change and global warming continues.
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts, Dec 1, 2017
Boletín - Organización Meteorológica Mundial, 2019
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts, Dec 16, 2014
Science, 2013
Adaptation requires science that analyzes decisions, identifies vulnerabilities, improves foresig... more Adaptation requires science that analyzes decisions, identifies vulnerabilities, improves foresight, and develops options.
Analyses of temporal (and spatial) variability in a wide range of ocean and atmospheric indices s... more Analyses of temporal (and spatial) variability in a wide range of ocean and atmospheric indices suggest that the annual cycle plays a central role in virtually all of the recognized principal modes of large-scale climatic variability (intraseasonal variability, tropospheric quasi -biennial oscillation, El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events). The major research objective of this thesis is a study of the nature and controls of processes, associated with variability in convection on these timescales, over the region of the South American "monsoon". Variability on multiple timescales are examined using empirical orthogonal functions, lagged correlations and singular spectrum analysis. Unique aspects of the annual cycle of convection over tropical South America are documented in detail. The study shows that the controls of convection and circulation differ from the Northern Hemisphere summer maximum, over Panama and the eastern tropical Pacific, to that in the Amazon Basin...
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts, Dec 1, 2018
... Drought as Hazard: Understanding the Natural and Social Context 17 ervoir and lake levels ...... more ... Drought as Hazard: Understanding the Natural and Social Context 17 ervoir and lake levels ... Monitoring these coping strategies provides a good indicator of the impact of drought on the ... early warning system with a broader remitto warn of other natural disasters and sometimes ...
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts, Dec 1, 2008
Greater energy demands are driving development of domestic energy resources and advancement of fo... more Greater energy demands are driving development of domestic energy resources and advancement of fossil- fuel independent energy technologies. However, water is necessary for most energy production. Greenhouse gas emissions are increasing global temperatures, impacting the quality and quantity of water resources. Warming temperatures are also altering the timing and nature of energy demand. As water is necessary for energy production,
AGUFM, Dec 1, 2008
ABSTRACT Greater energy demands are driving development of domestic energy resources and advancem... more ABSTRACT Greater energy demands are driving development of domestic energy resources and advancement of fossil- fuel independent energy technologies. However, water is necessary for most energy production. Greenhouse gas emissions are increasing global temperatures, impacting the quality and quantity of water resources. Warming temperatures are also altering the timing and nature of energy demand. As water is necessary for energy production, and energy is needed for the water supply, climate change will further exacerbate the interplay between these two sectors and create additional challenges in adaptive planning. The geology of Colorado is such that it has both carbon (oil shale, coal, coal-bed methane) and non-fossil-fuel (geothermal, winds) energy resources. There is an increasing need to develop these resources, but the impact on the region's water supply is often neglected, as is the energy required to support the water infrastructure. The Western US is prone to drought, and Colorado has experienced periodic drought throughout the observational record. Temperatures in Colorado have risen by about 1°C in the past 30 years, and are projected to increase an additional 2°C by 2050. Precipitation is highly variable and will continue to be in the future, but more severe and persistent droughts are anticipated. To investigate the impact of climate change on the energy-water nexus, in order to evaluate the information necessary to undertake more comprehensive regional impact and adaptation studies, the energy intensity of Colorado's water systems, and water usage by energy sector, are presented. The interdependence of water and energy necessitates that scientists work with decision-makers and consider both sectors when developing climate adaptation strategies. This work represents initial efforts towards a more comprehensive, collaborative analysis of climate change impacts on water and energy supply in support of adaptive management approaches in the Western US.
EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts, May 1, 2014
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts, Dec 1, 2018
AGUFM, Dec 1, 2010
The Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) is the focus of the first pilot regional drought early warn... more The Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) is the focus of the first pilot regional drought early warning information system of the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS). In partnership with resource managers from across the basin, a program of needs assessments, collaborative processes, research, and applications was designed and is being implemented. Priority actions involve the drought-sensitive decisions of large reservoir operators, water providers dependent on inter-basin transfers, and ecosystem managers. Identification of drought monitoring and forecasting needs has led to an ongoing UCRB drought monitoring process organized under the leadership of the Colorado state climatologist. Weekly webinars during spring runoff (monthly during the rest of the year) review the latest science, observations and forecasts for variables like streamflow, precipitation, temperature, snowpack, and reservoir storage. Research and applications projects support this collaborative process by developing new insights and tools for drought impact analyses. They include review and improvement of drought indices used in the UCRB, and new tools for making custom, locally-relevant indicators; spatial analysis of water demand in the basin; a low-flow impacts database, including environmental considerations; linkage of National Weather Service climate and hydrological modeling; a monitoring gaps assessment; and enhanced web access to drought information specific to the UCRB via the NIDIS portal. Lessons learned during 2010 will be applied during a second annual cycle in 2011 and then placed in the context of longer-term planning strategies. The findings of the pilot will provide the basis for the design of innovative and sustained practices in the UCRB, as well as expansion of the early warning system to include the Lower Colorado River Basin and to inform adaptation across multiple timescales. The UCRB effort highlights the role of pilot design and implementation as mechanisms for engaging active partnerships among Federal, state, tribal and local entities in responding to a changing environment.
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts, Dec 1, 2013
ABSTRACT BODY: The planning and decision processes in the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Pro... more ABSTRACT BODY: The planning and decision processes in the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program (GCDAMP) strive to balance numerous, often competing, objectives, such as, water supply, hydropower generation, low flow maintenance, maximizing conservation of downstream tributary sand supply, endangered native fish, and other sociocultural resources of Glen Canyon National Recreation Area and Grand Canyon National Park. In this context, use of monitored and predictive information on the warm season floods (at point-to-regional scales) has been identified as lead-information for a new 10-year long controlled flooding experiment (termed the High-Flow Experiment Protocol) intended to determine management options for rebuilding and maintaining sandbars in Grand Canyon; an adaptive strategy that can potentially facilitate improved planning and dam operations. In this work, we focus on a key concern identified by the GCDAMP, related to the timing and volume of tributary sand input from the Paria and Little Colorado Rivers (located 26 and 124 km below the dam, respectively) into the Colorado River in Grand Canyon National Park. Episodic and intraseasonal variations (with links to equatorial and sub-tropical Pacific sea surface temperature variability) in the southwest hydroclimatology are investigated to understand the magnitude, timing and spatial scales of warm season floods from this relatively small, but prolific sand producing drainage of the semi-arid Colorado Plateau. The coupled variations of the flood-driven sediment input (magnitude and timing) from these two drainages into the Colorado River are also investigated. The physical processes, including diagnosis of storms and moisture sources, are mapped alongside the planning and decision processes for the ongoing experimental flood releases from the Glen Canyon Dam which are aimed at achieving restoration and maintenance of sandbars and instream ecology. The GCDAMP represents one of the most visible and widely recognized adaptive management efforts in the world to manage resources under growing environmental uncertainty as climate change and global warming continues.
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts, Dec 1, 2017
Boletín - Organización Meteorológica Mundial, 2019
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts, Dec 16, 2014