Putin’s War with Ukraine: Voices of CNS Experts on the Russian Invasion (original) (raw)

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• How Ukraine Became a World War
  New Players Are Transforming the Conflict—and Complicating the Path to Ending It
• Emerging and Disruptive Technologies Transform, but Do Not Lift, the Fog of War: Evidence from Russia’s War on Ukraine
  New technologies add more complexity than clarity on battlefields.
• ‘Dual-use’ case: Russian attack drone maker evades Western scrutiny
  A Russian startup drone manufacturer has cashed in on the exploding demand for unmanned aerial vehicles spurred by the war in Ukraine.
• Putin’s Next Escalation Is Coming
  Even without the terror attack in Moscow last week, the Russian president was primed to step up his assault on Ukraine.
• Moscow Attack: How could it Impact the War?
  Hanna Notte joined the BBC’s Ukrainecast to discuss the implications of the Moscow terrorist attack.
• Putin’s Ukraine obsession has blinded him to dangers at home
  Putin’s obsession with Ukraine has made him blind to the real dangers to Russia, lurking abroad and at home.
• Russia’s War on Ukraine: The Implications for the Global Nuclear Order
  A seminar video with speakers Dr. Iryna Maksymenko, Dr. Valeriia Gergiieva, Ms. Valeriia Hesse, and Dr. Tetyana Melnyk.
• Containing Global Russia
  Contending with Russia’s efforts to upend the international order and to advance its own integration projects will be very difficult.
• Russia, the Global South, and Multilateral Nuclear Diplomacy After the Invasion of Ukraine
  The seminar focuses on a recently concluded study on the impact of the Russo-Ukrainian war on the international nuclear negotiating forums and governance bodies (the IAEA, NPT review process and UN First Committee).
• Strategic Stability in Europe after the Russian Invasion of Ukraine
  This report provides an overview of strategic stability in Europe nearly two years after the onset of the further Russian invasion of Ukraine.
• CNS International Advisory Council Meeting Focuses on Nonproliferation Risks of AI and the War in Ukraine
  The event, which included a business session, brought together many CNS alumni, who currently work in various US government agencies.
• OP#58: Dangerous Decline: Russia’s Military and Security Influence in the Global South and the Implications for the United States
  This study argues that Russia seeks to boost its military and security influence in the Global South in light of what it considers a protracted, systemic confrontation with Western states.
• InFocus with Ejaz Haider -Ep 23, Nov 8: The Unraveling of Arms Control and Nonproliferation
  A conversation on the future of arms control and nonproliferation in the wake of Russia’s de-ratification of the CTBT and other ongoing events.
• Russia’s Axis of the Sanctioned
  Moscow Is Bringing Washington’s Enemies Together
• How Russia Globalized the War in Ukraine
  The Kremlin’s Pressure-Point Strategy to Undermine the West
• The Perils of Premature Negotiation Over Ukraine
  Peace talks with Russia are pointless unless Putin gives up his ambition to push the U.S. and NATO from Eastern Europe.
• Why the world must protect nuclear reactors from military attacks. Now.
  While Russia’s actions at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant have received condemnation, its attacks on reactors and nuclear facilities may not be illegal given the fact that no international agreement specifically addresses the issue.
• How to Rebuild the Global Nuclear Order Post-Ukraine?
  Dr. Hecker highlighted the importance of scientists and diplomats working together on these complex issues.
• Podcast Appearance on the Nuclear Dynamics of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine
  CNS expert Josh Pollack, editor of the Nonproliferation Review, made a guest appearance on Julie McDowall’s podcast, “Atomic Hobo.”
• CNS Visiting Fellows Give Perspectives as a Ukrainian and a Russian on the War in Ukraine
  On May 12, 2022, CNS Visiting Fellows Valeriia Hesse and Kirill Iliin gave a talk to The Monterey Rotary Club.
• The Impact of Russia’s Ukraine Invasion in the Middle East and North Africa
  CNS expert Hanna Notte testifies on how the war might affect Moscow’s future interests, role and diplomacy in the region.
• The Impact of the Ukraine War on Missile Diplomacy in the Middle East
  Russian equivocation, U.S. distraction, and Gulf Arab states’ reliance on deterrence and defense will likely undermine prospects for addressing regional missile proliferation through diplomacy.
• CNS Webinar Series: Nuclear Threats and the War in Ukraine
  Watch a series of CNS webinars about the nuclear challenges and risks that have arisen as a result of this unfolding crisis.
• Why deterring Russian use of chemical weapons is a challenge
  There are limits to what the United States and NATO can threaten.
• The day Middlebury graduate students detected the start of the Russia-Ukraine war
  From that moment forward, all other CNS OSINT work in the office screeched to a halt. This night was the first time my work was in response to a real time crisis.
• Why the Ukraine war does not mean more countries should seek nuclear weapons
  The full balance sheet of pros and cons from both Ukraine and earlier cases does not lead to a persuasive argument for nuclear proliferation.
• Russia isn’t likely to use chemical weapons in Ukraine – unless Putin grows desperate
  There are unconfirmed reports Russia used chemical weapons in Ukraine. Syria’s chemical weapons use offers context for this tactic.
• Export Control Dialogue in Context of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine
  The focus of this CNS-organized event was to promote dialogue and discussion between the government and the private sector.
• How the IAEA can help nuclear power plants in Ukraine’s war zone
  Exploration of what the agency can and cannot do to ensure the safety and security of the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant.
• Draconian sanctions ‘on the table’ if Russia violated red line
  CNS expert Philipp Bleek discusses the possibility of Russia using chemical weapons.
• Russian-Ukraine War Updates Interview
  CNS expert Miles Pomper interviewed in English by BeFM, a Korean-English broadcast.
• Russia’s novel strategic weapons: staying ahead of the Americans?
  Examining public data, declassified intelligence, and commercial satellite imagery, the authors identify drivers behind Russia’s pursuit of weapons systems.
• Expert Concerned Russia Could Deploy Small, ‘Tactical’ Nuclear Weapon in Ukraine
  VIDEO: CNS expert on NBC online outlet, XL, discussing Russian nuclear forces and the war with Ukraine
• Would Vladimir Putin use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine?
  As the war approaches Nato’s borders military officials on both sides will have to communicate closely.
• A New Nuclear Arms Race Is a Real Possibility
  History suggests the war in Ukraine could put an end to arms control as we know it.
• In the pages of the Nonproliferation Review: Russia and biological weapons
  Articles analyzing Russia’s long history of fabrications about biological weapons and Russia’s own BW history
• Russian Misinformation About Ukrainian Radiological Weapons Capabilities and Intentions
  A flurry of unsubstantiated and intentionally misleading allegations began prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and continue to this date.
• Would Putin use nuclear weapons? An arms control expert explains what has and hasn’t changed since the invasion of Ukraine
  So far, arms control has played its intended role of limiting the scope and violence in Ukraine.
• The Fallout from Russia’s Attack on Ukrainian Nuclear Facilities
  Why have these civilian nuclear facilities been the object of attack, and what are the likely consequences of this high-risk military action by Moscow?
• How international law applies to attacks on nuclear and associated facilities in Ukraine
  The postwar international system will need to consider stronger legal measures and consider how to enforce such measures.

Monument to Bohdan Khmelnitsky with St. Sophia Cathedral in the background in Kyiv, Ukraine (Src: Shutterstock)

Introduction

Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine has set in motion a catastrophic war, the consequences of which are already tragic. As with all wars, this one also will have many unintended consequences, including with respect to nuclear nonproliferation, arms control, deterrence, disarmament, and risk reduction.

Consistent with the CNS mission of promoting nonproliferation education and analysis, CNS has launched a series of webinars about the nuclear challenges and risks that have arisen as a result of this unfolding crisis. Links the recordings of prior webinars are provided below.

Additionally, this portal provides a compendium of CNS expert analysis and commentary on the war with a particular focus on its nuclear ramifications. It also will provide relevant educational materials for both an expert and more general audience.

Archived Content from 2022

View 2022 Content

• Why the world must protect nuclear reactors from military attacks. Now.
  While Russia’s actions at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant have received condemnation, its attacks on reactors and nuclear facilities may not be illegal given the fact that no international agreement specifically addresses the issue.
  December 15, 2022
• Science Diplomacy, Past and Present | Podcast
  Professors Siegfried Hecker and Michael Gordin moderated by Dr. Hanna Notte
  November 2, 2022
• Covering the War in Ukraine | Podcast
  Clarissa Ward and Joshua Yaffa moderated by Dr. Michael Kimmage
  November 9, 2022
• Podcast Appearance on the Nuclear Dynamics of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine
  CNS expert Josh Pollack, editor of the Nonproliferation Review, made a guest appearance on Julie McDowall’s podcast, “Atomic Hobo.”
  May 23, 2022
  — Josh Pollack in the Atomic Hobo podcast
• The Impact of Russia’s Ukraine Invasion in the Middle East and North Africa
  CNS expert Hanna Notte testifies on how the war might affect Moscow’s future interests, role and diplomacy in the region.
  May 19, 2022
  — Hanna Notte for the House Foreign Affairs Committee
• The Impact of the Ukraine War on Missile Diplomacy in the Middle East
  Russian equivocation, U.S. distraction, and Gulf Arab states’ reliance on deterrence and defense will likely undermine prospects for addressing regional missile proliferation through diplomacy.
  April 29, 2022
  — Hanna Notte for The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
• [VIDEO] The War in Ukraine: Implications for the Use and Proliferation of Chemical and Biological Weapons
  In the fourth episode of the series, a group of experts from the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation, and King’s College London discuss the prospects of Russia using biological and chemical weapons in Ukraine. The experts also discuss how various misinformation campaigns weaken the nonproliferation regime and current international treaties.
  April 25, 2022
• Why deterring Russian use of chemical weapons is a challenge
  There are limits to what the United States and NATO can threaten.
  April 18, 2022
  — Hanna Notte for The Washington Post
• The day Middlebury graduate students detected the start of the Russia-Ukraine war
  From that moment forward, all other CNS OSINT work in the office screeched to a halt. This night was the first time my work was in response to a real time crisis.
  April 14, 2022
  — Tricia A. White
• Why the Ukraine war does not mean more countries should seek nuclear weapons
  The full balance sheet of pros and cons from both Ukraine and earlier cases does not lead to a persuasive argument for nuclear proliferation.
  April 12, 2022
  — Jeffrey Knopf for the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists
• Russia isn’t likely to use chemical weapons in Ukraine – unless Putin grows desperate
  There are unconfirmed reports Russia used chemical weapons in Ukraine. Syria’s chemical weapons use offers context for this tactic.
  April 12, 2022
  — Jeffrey Knopf for The Conversation
• Export Control Dialogue in Context of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine
  The focus of this CNS-organized event was to promote dialogue and discussion between the government and the private sector.
  April 12, 2022
• [VIDEO] U.N. suspends Russia from human rights body, Moscow then quits
  Russia continues to face consequences for its invasion of Ukraine, becoming only the second country to be suspended from the UN Human Rights Council over its alleged atrocities. Meanwhile, the US congress has voted to suspend normal trade relations with Moscow and ban imports of its oil. Dr. Hanna Notte from the James Martin Center for Non-Proliferation Studies in Berlin tells The World what this means for Russia, and what their next move could be.
  April 8,2022
  — Hanna Notte on ABC News
• How the IAEA can help nuclear power plants in Ukraine’s war zone
  What the agency can and cannot do to ensure the safety and security of the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant.
  March 31, 2022
  — Noah Mayhew in The Bulletin.
• [VIDEO] Expert Concerned Russia Could Deploy Small, ‘Tactical’ Nuclear Weapon in Ukraine
  March 28, 2022
  — Sarah Bidgood on NBC’s XL.com.
• [VIDEO] The War in Ukraine and the Future of Arms Control
  In the third episode of the Nuclear Threats and the War in Ukraine, Sir Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor of War Studies at King’s College London and Ms. Sarah Bidgood, Director of the Eurasia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS), discuss the future of arms control. The discussion is moderated by CNS founder and director Dr. William Potter. Ms. Bidgood wrote a recent article in Foreign Policy about the real possibility of a new nuclear arms race.
  March 25, 2022
• Would Vladimir Putin use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine?
  As the war approaches Nato’s borders military officials on both sides will have to communicate closely.
  March 24, 2022
  — Sarah Bidgood for The New Statesman
• [AUDIO] Russian-Ukraine War Updates – Miles Pomper interviewed by Morning Wave in Busan BeFM
  March 17, 2022
  — Miles Pomper interviewed by Morning Wave in Busan BeFM
• [VIDEO] Draconian sanctions ‘on the table’ if Russia violated red line: Dr. Philipp Bleek
  Philipp Bleek discusses the possibility of Russia using chemical weapons.
  March 16, 2022
  — Philipp Bleek on Fox Business
• A New Nuclear Arms Race Is a Real Possibility
  History suggests the war in Ukraine could put an end to arms control as we know it.
  March 15, 2022
  — Sarah Bidgood for Foreign Policy
• This Is a Uniquely Perilous Moment
  Smaller-scale tactical nuclear weapons could bring the great powers into a brutal, deadly, and unprecedented conflict.
  March 14, 2022
  — Nikolai Sokov sited extensively in The Atlantic
• In the pages of the Nonproliferation Review: Russia and biological weapons
  Articles analyzing Russia’s long history of fabrications about biological weapons and Russia’s own BW history.
  March 11, 2022
  — Articles from the CNS Nonproliferation Review
• Amid fears that Russia might stage false-flag chemical/bio attack in Ukraine: Some background readings that might be useful
  March 11, 2022
  — Hanna Notte • @HannaNotte
• Would Putin use nuclear weapons? An arms control expert explains what has and hasn’t changed since the invasion of Ukraine
  So far, arms control has played its intended role of limiting the scope and violence in Ukraine.
  March 10, 2022
  — Miles Pomper in The Conversation
• [VIDEO] Chen Kane interviewed by Deutsche Welle News TV
  March 10, 2022
  — Chen Kane interviewed by Deutsche Welle News TV
• Russian Misinformation About Ukrainian Radiological Weapons Capabilities and Intentions
  A flurry of unsubstantiated and intentionally misleading allegations began prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and continue to this date.
  March 10, 2022
  — by Matthew Goldenberg and William Potter
• The Fallout from Russia’s Attack on Ukrainian Nuclear Facilities
  Why have these civilian nuclear facilities been the object of attack, and what are the likely consequences of this high-risk military action by Moscow?
  March 10, 2022
  — William Potter for War on the Rocks
• [GERMAN][VIDEO] Russland-Expertin Hanna Notte, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, mit einer Bewertung zu Russlands Forderungen im Ukraine-Krieg
  March 8, 2022
  — Hanna Notte interviewed by tagesschau (in German)
• Export Control and Emerging Technology Control in an Era of Strategic Competition
  This paper provides an overview of changes taking place in relation to export controls, particularly from a US perspective.
  March 8, 2022
  — A CNS DC Nonpro Notes paper by Ian Stewart
• How international law applies to attacks on nuclear and associated facilities in Ukraine
  The postwar international system will need to consider stronger legal measures and consider how to enforce such measures.
  March 7, 2022
  — George Moore for the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists
• [VIDEO] Russian Troops Seize Nuclear Power Plant
  March 4, 2022
  — William Potter interviewed by CTV News
• [VIDEO] The War in Ukraine and Reducing the Risk of Nuclear Weapons Use
  Three distinguished scholars discuss the risk that nuclear weapons could be used in the context of the war in Ukraine and the likely impact of the war on the international nonproliferation regime and national decisions to forego nuclear weapons.
  March 3, 2022
• [VIDEO] The Chornobyl Exclusion Zone: Nuclear Safety and Security in Time of War
  Features speaker Kateryna Pavlova, Head of International Department and Public Relations, State Agency of Ukraine on Exclusion Zone Management, former Head of State Agency on Exclusion Zone Management.
  March 1, 2022

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CNS Webinar Series: Nuclear Threats and the War in Ukraine

Watch a series of CNS webinars about the nuclear challenges and risks that have arisen as a result of this unfolding crisis.

• The War in Ukraine: Implications for the Use and Proliferation of Chemical and Biological Weapons

April 25, 2022
In the fourth episode of the series, a group of experts from the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation, and King’s College London discuss the prospects of Russia using biological and chemical weapons in Ukraine. The experts also discuss how various misinformation campaigns weaken the nonproliferation regime and current international treaties. * ### The War in Ukraine and the Future of Arms Control

March 25, 2022
In the third episode of the Nuclear Threats and the War in Ukraine, Sir Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor of War Studies at King’s College London and Ms. Sarah Bidgood, Director of the Eurasia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS), discuss the future of arms control. The discussion is moderated by CNS founder and director Dr. William Potter. Ms. Bidgood wrote a recent article in Foreign Policy about the real possibility of a new nuclear arms race. * ### The War in Ukraine and Reducing the Risk of Nuclear Weapons Use

March 3, 2022
Three distinguished scholars discuss the risk that nuclear weapons could be used in the context of the war in Ukraine and the likely impact of the war on the international nonproliferation regime and national decisions to forego nuclear weapons.

• The Chornobyl Exclusion Zone: Nuclear Safety and Security in Time of War

March 1, 2022
Features speaker Kateryna Pavlova, Head of International Department and Public Relations, State Agency of Ukraine on Exclusion Zone Management, former Head of State Agency on Exclusion Zone Management.

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Educational Resources

Papers

• The Finger on the Button
  Authorizing and executing launch in nuclear-armed states.
  — A CNS Occasional Paper by Jeffrey Lewis and Bruno Tertrais
• Export Control and Emerging Technology Control in an Era of Strategic Competition
  This paper provides an overview of changes taking place in relation to export controls, particularly from a US perspective.
  — A CNS DC Nonpro Notes paper by Ian Stewart

Twitter Threads

• Amid fears that Russia might stage false-flag chemical/bio attack in Ukraine: Some background readings that might be useful
  March 11, 2022
  — Hanna Notte • @HannaNotte
• Identifying the lies of Russian media by exposing satellite imagery of Russian forces being moved to Ukraine’s borders.
  February 23, 2022
  — Jeffrey Lewis • @ArmsControlWonk
• What would Russia’s break with the West mean for nuclear arms control?
  February 14, 2022
  — Hanna Notte • @HannaNotte
• Geolocation Belarus nuclear weapons storage sites
  February 8, 2022
  — Michael Duitsman • @DuitsyWasHere
• Clearing misinformation regarding nuclear weapons that were in Ukraine in 1994 and the decision to return them to Russia
  February 25, 2022
  — Jon Wolfsthal • @JBWolfsthal
• Radiological threats of Russia’s invasion in Ukraine
  February 25, 2022
  — Joshua Pollack • @Joshua_Pollack
• Risk of nuclear escalation due to the invasion
  February 27, 2022
  — Ian Stewart • @ian_j_stewart

Other Links

• Around the halls: Implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
  Brookings experts analyze the implications of the invasion, for Europe, Russia, international order, U.S. foreign policy, and much more, and offer policy recommendations for the United States, European, and other governments.
  — The Brookings Institution

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CNS in the Media

• February 14, 2024: “Russia’s Dangerous New Friends How Moscow Is Partnering With the Axis of Resistance” Hanna Notte in Foreign Affairs
• January 24, 2024: Russia’s Growing Support for Iran and North Korea Hanna Notte on the podcast ‘Thinking the Unthinkable’ for War on the Rocks
• November 20, 2023: “CNS International Advisory Council Meeting Focuses on Nonproliferation Risks of AI and the War in Ukraine” CNS
• November 11, 2023: In the News: What Does the Israel-Gaza Conflict Mean for Russia and Ukraine? Hanna Notte in Middlebury News
• November 9, 2023: “Russia Using Israel-Hamas War To Push Anti-West Narrative, Analysts Say” Hanna Notte in themedialine
• November 9, 2023: “Podcast: What Does Russia Stand to Gain From the Israel-Hamas War?” Hanna Notte in CARNEGIEpolitika
• November 7, 2023: “Israeli Official’s Nuclear Bomb Suggestion Enrages Russia” Nikolai Sokov in Newsweek
• October 23-30, 2023: “Russia Analytical Report” Hanna Notte in Russia Matters
• October 26, 2023: “Putin Is Getting What He Wants” Hanna Notte in The New York Times
• October 19, 2023: Where Does Russia Stand on the Israel-Hamas War?, Hanna Notte for Foreign Policy
• October 18, 2023: New Global Divisions on View as Biden Goes to Israel and Putin to China, Hanna Notte quoted in the New York Times
• October 18, 2023: Israel-Hamas War Creates Prospects, Problems For Russia As It Invades Ukraine And Seeks Clout In Mideast” Hanna Notte in RadioFreeEurope
• October 17, 2023: Europe, Russia, and the Conflict in Gaza, Hanna Notte appeared on CNAS’ Brussels Sprouts podcast
• October 17, 2023: What Putin Stands to Gain From Israel-Hamas War” Hanna Notte in FP
• October 13, 2023: Putin is ready to take advantage of Israel-Gaza war, says Steve Rosenberg” Hanna Notte in BBC
• October 11, 2023: “Russia: A Global Outcast or Still a Desirable Partner?” Hanna Notte in a panel at the Belgrade Security Conference
• October 10, 2023: “Did Russia Have A Hand In The Hamas Attack?” Hanna Notte in WORLDCRUNCH
• October 10, 2023: “What the Israel-Gaza conflict means for Ukraine” Hanna Notte in BBC Ukrainecast with Frank Gardner
• October 09, 2023: Zelenskyy tells NATO Russia and Hamas are ‘same evil,’ while Putin stays silent about Israel attack” Hanna Notte in DAILY KOS
• October 9, 2023: “What Role Does Russia Have To Play In Hamas’s Invasion Of Israel? Q&A With Expert Hanna Notte” Hanna Notte in RFE/RL
• October 07, 2023: “No signs of any imminent nuclear tests at Novaya Zemlya” Thomas Nilsen in The Barents Observer
• September 22, 2023: “Exclusive: Satellite images show increased activity at nuclear test sites in Russia, China and US” Jeffrey Lewis in CNN
• August 15, 2023: “In Search of Resolution” Elena Sokova in kpbs
• July 26, 2023: “Bluffing or not, Putin’s declared deployment of nuclear weapons to Belarus raises tensions” Miles Pomper in abc news
• July 19, 2023: ‘Whither Diplomacy?” Nomsa Ndongwe in Perry World House
• July 18, 2023: “The West Cannot Cure Russia’s Nuclear Fever” Hanna Notte in War on the Rocks
• July 10, 2023: “The evolution of Russia’s relations with the West: A conversation with Hanna Notte” Hanna Notte in CIVILNET
• July 10, 2023: “Ukrainian minister says he fears Russia has ‘no red lines’ to prevent attacks on nuclear plant” Jeffrey Lewis in ABC News
• June 30, 2023: “Satellite imagery shows what could be Wagner’s future camp in Belarus” Jeffrey Lewis in The Washington Post
• May 4, 2023: “Has Vladimir Putin Destroyed the Delicate Nuclear Order?” Siegfried Hecker interviewed in Der Spiegel
• April 4, 2023: “Stationierung von Nuklearwaffen in Belarus: „Das Ziel für einen russischen Atomschlag wäre Polen“” CNS in Tagespiegel
• February 22, 2023: “What happens now after Russia suspends the last nuclear arms treaty with the U.S.?” Sarah Bidgood in NPR
• February 22, 2023: “U.S.-RUSSIAN RELATIONS CAN STILL GET WORSE” Hanna Notte in War on the Rocks
• February 22, 2023: “¿Qué significa que Rusia suspenda su participación en tratado de armas nucleares con EEUU?” Miles Pomper in Univision
• February 22, 2023: “What happens now after Russia suspends the last nuclear arms treaty with the U.S.?” Sarah Bidgood in Wabe
• February 21, 2023: “How the Ukraine war helped the arms trade go boom” Eric Woods in RESPONSIBLE STATECRAFT
• February 19, 2023: “How Russia Is Still Dodging Sanctions — With Help From Companies Everywhere” Eric Woods in WorldCrunch
• February 18, 2023: “The post-Cold War era is gone, a new arms race has arrived” Decker Eveleth in The Times of India
• February 16, 2023: “Up for debate: Would doing less in Ukraine help US prepare for China challenge?” Robert Carlin mentioned in the comments section in The Washington Examiner
• February 4, 2023: [GERMAN] “Rüstungskontrolle in russischer Geiselhaft” Hanna Notte in Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
• January 30, 2023: “Rosatum Ukraine War Effort Sanctions” CNS in The Washington Post
• January 24, 2023: “Hanna Notte: Russia in the Middle East After Ukraine” Hanna Notte in CSIS
• December 2, 2022: “How Bad Are Things Between Russia And The U.S.? They Can’t Even Agree To Discuss Nuclear Weapons Inspections” Nikolai Sokov in the Radio Free Europe
• November 25, 2022: “Krieg in der Ukraine: Für die Russen ist der Einsatz viel höher als in Syrien» Hanna Notte in SRF news
• November 15, 2022: “The Ukrainian War and Weapons Proliferation” Nikolai Sokov at the EU Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Conference
• November 7, 2022: “Russia Analytical Report, Oct. 31-Nov. 7, 2022” Hanna Notte in Russia Matters by Belfer Center *** November 4, 2022: “What if Russia uses a dirty bomb in Ukraine?” Sarah Bidgood in Meduza** *** November 3, 2022: “Don’t Expect Any More Russian Help On The Iran Nuclear Deal” Hanna Notte in the War on the Rocks** *** November 2, 2022: “Waffen für die Ukraine: Verdacht auf Schmuggel ins Ausland” Nikolai Sokov in Telepolis** *** November 2, 2022: “Monterey Conversations: Science Diplomacy, Past and Present | Gordin | Hecker | Notte” Hanna Notte, Siegfried Hecker in Monterey Initiative in Russian Studies** *** October 28, 2022: “Arms Control in Europe After the Russo-Ukrainian War, Really?” Hanna Notte at the Carnegie Nuclear Policy Conference** *** October 27, 2022: “Russia says Ukraine is preparing a ‘dirty bomb.’ Is it true, and what does it mean?” George M. Moore in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists** *** October 27, 2022: “U.S. Program Aims to Keep Sensitive Weapons in Ukraine” Nikolai Sokov in The New York Times** *** October 19, 2022: “What happens if the nukes fall?” Jeffrey Lewis in the Daily Mail** *** October 18, 2022: “Russia is trying to steal Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. Experts doubt Putin can really pull it off” John Carlson in Grid** *** October 17, 2022: “Analysis: What is Russia’s policy on tactical nuclear weapons?” Jeffrey Lewis in Reuters** *** October 15, 2022: “Will Putin Use Nuclear Weapons? Watch These Indicators” Jeffrey Lewis in the Atlantic** *** October 13, 2022: “CYBER: Nuclear War 101” Jeffrey Lewis in CYBER podcast** *** October 10, 2022: “International Security, Nuclear Weapons and the War in Ukraine” Hanna Notte, Federica Dall’Arche in Università di Roma Tre panel** *** October 7, 2022: “‘Armageddon’ warning reflects Biden’s instincts about Putin” Jeffrey Lewis in the Washington Post** *** October 7, 2022: “Ukraine war: Very low chance Russia will use nuclear weapons – expert” Nikolai Sokov in Euro News** *** October 4, 2022: “What’s Putin thinking? Tough to know for nuclear analysts” Nikolai Sokov in the Washington Post** *** September 23, 2022: “Tactical nukes: Why the world is so worried about Russia’s nuclear weapons” Sarah Bidgood in the Washington Post** *** September 23, 2022: “How to Rebuild the Global Nuclear Order Post-Ukraine?” Siegfried Hecker in CNS seminar** *** September 22, 2022: “What does Russia’s military escalation mean for Ukraine and its allies?” Hanna Notte in DW Inside Europe podcast** *** September 22, 2022: “Krieg ist an jedem russischen Küchentisch angekommen” Hanna Notte in NTV** *** September 22, 2022: “Ab heute: Referenden in den russisch-besetzten Gebieten der Ukraine” Hanna Notte in BR24 Thema Des Tages podcast** *** September 21, 2022: “Why the world is so worried about Russia’s ‘tactical’ nuclear weapons” Sarah Bidgood in the Washington Post** *** September 17, 2022: ““Don’t. Don’t. Don’t.” Joe Biden avisa Putin sobre uso de armas nucleares” Elena Sokova in Publico** *** September 16, 2022: “How Ukraine Has Changed Russian Diplomacy” Hanna Notte in Foreign Policy** *** September 14, 2022: “Azerbaijan used Russia’s weakness in Ukraine, expert says” Hanna Notte in DW** *** August 30, 2022: “Russia Walks Out of NPT RevCon” Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova in Press the Button podcast** *** August 29, 2022: “Machiavelli in the Ivory Tower Ep 4: Nuclear Deterrence and the Ukraine War” Hanna Notte, Sarah Bidgood, Jeffrey Lewis in Nonproliferation Monterey episode** *** August 26, 2022: “Russia blocks UN nuclear treaty agreement over Zaporizhzhia clause” Sarah Bidgood in the Guardian** *** August 25, 2022: “The situation at the captured Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in Ukraine just got way more dangerous” Miles Pomper in the Grid News** *** August 6, 2022: “An Increased Risk of Nuclear War?” Nikolai Sokov in NHK Japan** *** August 6, 2022: “What we know about the blast that killed Ukrainian POWs in Olenivka” Steven De La Fuente in the Washington Post** *** August 5, 2022: “Geht Russland im Ukraine-Krieg die Luft aus?” Hanna Notte in BR24** *** August 4, 2022: “Russia ratchets up the danger at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant” Ferenc Dalnoki Veress in Grid** *** July 22, 2022: “Vladimir Putin aims to learn from Iran how sanctions are busted” Hanna Notte in DW** *** July 1, 2022: “Russia-Belarus nuclear sharing would mirror NATO’s—and worsen Europe’s security” Nikolai Sokov in Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists** *** May 30, 2022: “Risks of Nuclear Escalation after the End of War in Ukraine” Nikolai Sokov in Georgetown Journal of International Affairs** *** May 30, 2022: “Private companies track the war in Ukraine in real time” Jeffrey Lewis in PBS** *** May 26, 2022: “Hanna Notte analysiert den russischen Angriffskrieg in der Ukraine” Hanna Notte in Korber Stiftung** *** May 21, 2022: “Guerra nucleare, Putin testa il “Chernobyl volante: il missile che può colpire a distanza illimitata (anche gli Stati Uniti)” Jeffrey Lewis in Il Mattino** *** May 18, 2022: “The Impact of Russia’s Ukraine Invasion in the Middle East and North Africa” Hanna Notte testified to the House Foreign Affairs Committee** *** May 16, 2022: “3 Scenarios for How Putin Could Actually Use Nukes” George M. Moore, Avner Cohen in Politico** *** May 5, 2022: “Campo de batalha da Ucrânia é assombrado pelo legado de armas químicas de Putin” Hanna Notte in Estadao** *** May 4, 2022: “Ukraine’s Battlefield Is Haunted by Putin’s Chemical Weapons Legacy” Hanna Notte in The New York Times** *** May 4, 2022: “Ukraine’s Battlefield Is Haunted by Putin’s Chemical Weapons Legacy” Nikolai Sokov in The New York Times** *** April 29, 2022: “Expertin: Russlands Drohungen Zeichen von Verzweiflung” Hanna Notte in German TV ARD (Morgenmagazin)** *** April 29, 2022: “The Impact of the Ukraine War on Missile Diplomacy in the Middle East” Hanna Notte in The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington** *** April 28, 2022: “Ukraine vs. Russland: Wie endet der Krieg?” Hanna Notte in “Possoch klärt” on BR24** *** “A Gathering Storm, Ukraine”** April 14, 2022 — Hanna Notte in BACK STORY *** “Why the Ukraine war does not mean more countries should seek nuclear weapons”** April 12, 2022 — Jeffrey Knopf in Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists *** “Russia isn’t likely to use chemical weapons in Ukraine – unless Putin grows desperate”** April 12, 2022 — Jeffrey Knopf in The Conversation *** “Аналитик: В Сирии и Украине РФ использует пять схожих тактик”** April 5, 2022 — Hanna Notte in Deutsche Welle *** “STYRKES AV SANKSJONER”** April 5, 2022 — Hanna Notte in Klassekampen *** “Uavhengig russisk journalist: Sanksjonene får eliten til å samle seg bak Putin”** April 5, 2022 — Hanna Notte in Verdens Gang *** “What countries have nuclear weapons, and where are they?”** April 1, 2022 — Miles Pomper in The Conversation *** [VIDEO] U.N. suspends Russia from human rights body, Moscow then quits**

Russia continues to face consequences for its invasion of Ukraine, becoming only the second country to be suspended from the UN Human Rights Council over its alleged atrocities. Meanwhile, the US congress has voted to suspend normal trade relations with Moscow and ban imports of its oil. Dr Hanna Notte from the James Martin Center for Non-Proliferation Studies in Berlin tells The World what this means for Russia, and what their next move could be. April 8,2022 — Hanna Notte on ABC News *** Аналитик: В Сирии и Украине РФ использует пять схожих тактик** Parallels in Russian tactics in Syria vs Ukraine April 5, 2022 — Hanna Notte in _Deutsche Welle *** STYRKES AV SANKSJONER** Russian domestic views on the war in Ukraine and reactions to sanctions April 5, 2022 — Hanna Notte in _Klassekampen *** Uavhengig russisk journalist: Sanksjonene får eliten til å samle seg bak Putin** Russian domestic views on the war in Ukraine and reactions to sanctions April 5, 2022 — Hanna Notte in _Verdens Gang *** Russia promises to open humanitarian corridor in Mariupol** March 31, 2022 — Hanna Notte in _BBC World from 5’30 *** Russia’s Ukraine war builds on tactics it used in Syria, experts say** March 31, 2022 — Hanna Notte in _The Washington Post *** “What Consequences Would Russia Face For Using Chemical Weapons?”** March 30, 2022 — Hanna Notte in _NBC News *** Why the world is so worried about Russia’s ‘tactical’ nuclear weapons** March 29, 2022 — Sarah Bidgood in _The Washington Post *** Setzt Russland im Krieg gegen die Ukraine syrische Söldner ein?** March 29, 2022 — Hanna Notte in _BR24 *** Will western-Russian confrontation shake the middle east?** March 29, 2022 — Hanna Notte in _War on the Rocks *** Expert Concerned Russia Could Deploy Small, ‘Tactical’ Nuclear Weapon in Ukraine** March 28, 2022 — Sarah Bidgood in _NBC Universal *** [VIDEO] Expert Concerned Russia Could Deploy Small, ‘Tactical’ Nuclear Weapon in Ukraine** March 28, 2022 — Sarah Bidgood on NBC’s XL.com *** [AUDIO] Russian-Ukraine War Updates – Miles Pomper interviewed by Morning Wave in Busan BeFM** March 17, 2022 — Miles Pomper interviewed by Morning Wave in Busan BeFM *** [VIDEO] Draconian sanctions ‘on the table’ if Russia violated red line: Dr. Philipp Bleek** Philipp Bleek discusses the possibility of Russia using chemical weapons. March 16, 2022 — Philipp Bleek on Fox Business *** This Is a Uniquely Perilous Moment** Smaller-scale tactical nuclear weapons could bring the great powers into a brutal, deadly, and unprecedented conflict. March 14, 2022 — Nikolai Sokov sited extensively in _The Atlantic *** [VIDEO] Chen Kane interviewed by Deutsche Welle News TV** March 10, 2022 — Chen Kane interviewed by Deutsche Welle News TV *** [GERMAN][VIDEO] Russland-Expertin Hanna Notte, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, mit einer Bewertung zu Russlands Forderungen im Ukraine-Krieg**

March 8, 2022 Hanna Notte interviewed by tagesschau (in German) --- *** [VIDEO] Russian Troops Seize Nuclear Power Plant**

March 4, 2022 William Potter interviewed by CTV News ---

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## Contact CNS Experts

*** William Potter** CNS Founder & Director · Sam Nunn and Richard Lugar Professor of Nonproliferation Studies 831.647.3511 · [email protected] *** Jeffrey Lewis** Director, East Asia Nonproliferation Program (EANP) · Professor 831.647.6616 · [email protected] · @ArmsControlWonk *** George Moore** Scientist-in-Residence · Adjunct Professor 831.647.4613 · [email protected] · @kennmoor *** Hanna Notte** Senior Research Associate, VCDNP [email protected] · [email protected] · @HannaNotte *** Nikolai Sokov** Senior Fellow, VCDNP [email protected] *** Elena Sokova** Executive Director, VCDNP +43 (1) 236 94 82-01 · [email protected] *** Noah Mayhew** Research Associate, VCDNP +43 (1) 236 94 82-04 · [email protected] *** Sarah Bidgood** Director, Eurasia Nonproliferation Program 831.647.3584 · [email protected] *** Ferenc Dalnoki-Veress** Scientist-in-Residence · Adjunct Professor 831.647.4638 · [email protected] *** Ian Stewart** Executive Director, Washington DC Office [email protected] · @ian_j_stewart *** Michael Duitsman** Research Associate 831.647.3559 · [email protected] · @DuitsyWasHere *** Chen Kane** Director, Middle East Nonproliferation Program 202.601.2330 · [email protected] *** Margarita Kalinina-Pohl** Senior Program Manager, Education Program 831.647.6540 · [email protected] *** Robert Shaw** Program Director, Export Control and Nonproliferation Program (XNP) · Adjunct Professor 831.647.6576 · [email protected]

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