Timothy Heleniak | Nordregio - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Timothy Heleniak

Nordic Welfare Research, 2020

The population of the Nordic region has grown substantially during recent decades, though most of... more The population of the Nordic region has grown substantially during recent decades, though most of this growth has been in urban regions. While the Nordic countries are projected to see continued population growth in the future, almost all of the increase will be concentrated in urban centres, with population decline or stagnation in many rural municipalities. This will make it difficult for these regions to remain economically competitive and for national governments to provide a uniform level of services across entire countries. This article provides policymakers at the national, regional, and municipal levels with projections of the size, composition, and geographic distribution of rural populations in the Nordic countries in 2040. In total, remote rural regions will not become depopulated and are projected to grow moderately from 5.3 to 5.5 million persons to 2040, though many will experience significant declines in their total and working-age populations and will have much older age structures. For many rural municipalities in the Nordic region, their population peak was at some point in the distant past, and they should therefore develop policies based on smaller populations.

In Which Direction is Finland Evolving? The Dynamics of Mobility and Migration. X Migration Symposium 2019, 2020

The Nordic countries have been net receivers of people from other countries since the 1970s, but ... more The Nordic countries have been net receivers of people from other countries since the 1970s, but recently the size of these flows has increased considerably. Managing the large influx of newcomers is an enormous challenge to the Nordic countries and the success of the Nordic welfare model. For most of their histories, the populations of the
Nordic countries were rather homogenous but they have become increasingly diverse in recent decades. Managing increased diversity has not proven easy for countries with much longer histories of immigration. The title “the Wary Welcome” conveys the policy dilemmas faced by the Nordic countries. The Nordic countries are prosperous and stable
and are thus prime destinations for migrants from elsewhere in Europe and outside Europe. The Nordic countries also seek to live up to their obligations to take in persons fleeing persecution until international refugee agreements. The populations of the Nordic countries are ageing and there is a perceived need to allow migrants to compensate
for aging and labour shortages. The sharply increased diversity has caused a backlash among some political parties and segments of the population who harken for a return to a previous time of more homogenous Nordic populations or to greatly limit future
immigration. This anti-immigrant sentiment is not unlike other immigrant-receiving Western countries.

European Planning Studies, 2021

Many sparsely-populated regions in Europe are or perceive that they are left behind because of a ... more Many sparsely-populated regions in Europe are or perceive that
they are left behind because of a reduced presence of public and
private services in the area in comparison to more denselypopulated urban areas. One solution that has been proposed to
overcome issues of spatial injustice in these areas is the
digitalization of public services. The use of new technologies can
be a means to provide similar services in rural as in urban areas
and to reduce costs. However, when services are becoming
digitalized, in regions with ageing populations, spatial and social
digital divides might increase. Could policies that deliberately
involve local knowledge and stakeholders overcome such
divides? This article analyses how far place-based strategies for
the digitalization of services can overcome (perceptions of)
spatial injustice in rural and sparsely-populated regions. It is
based on findings from a Swedish and a German case study and
raises the need to give more attention to social and
organizational aspects in rural digitalization policies. We argue
that place-based digitalization policies can make a difference if
planned in a fair, transparent, and inclusive way and considering
local communities’ perceptions of injustice

Population and Environment, 2021

Permafrost thaw is a challenge in many Arctic regions, one that modifies ecosystems and affects i... more Permafrost thaw is a challenge in many Arctic regions, one that modifies ecosystems and affects infrastructure and livelihoods. To date, there have been no demographic studies of the population on permafrost. We present the first estimates of the number of inhabitants on permafrost in the Arctic Circumpolar Permafrost Region (ACPR) and project changes as a result of permafrost thaw. We combine current and projected populations at settlement level with permafrost extent. Key findings indicate that there are 1162 permafrost settlements in the ACPR, accommodating 5 million inhabitants, of whom 1 million live along a coast. Climate-driven permafrost projections suggest that by 2050, 42% of the permafrost settlements will become permafrost-free due to thawing. Among the settlements remaining on permafrost, 42% are in high hazard zones, where the consequences of permafrost thaw will be most severe. In total, 3.3 million people in the ACPR live currently in settlements where permafrost will degrade and ultimately disappear by 2050.

Executive Summary, 2020

This executive summary examines the projected size, composition and geographic distribution of th... more This executive summary examines the projected size, composition and geographic distribution of the population of the Arctic in the future, by examining the population projections carried out by the national and regional statistical offices in each of the Arctic regions.

The executive summary is based on the Nordregio Working Paper, Polar Peoples in the Future: Projections of the Arctic Populations.

Population projections are an input into population policy and are used by policymakers for a variety of planning purposes. Policymakers operating at different levels in the Arctic region should be aware of these population trends and able to plan for them.

Nordregio Working Paper, 2020

Projections of the future size, composition and distribution of the populations of the Arctic sta... more Projections of the future size, composition and distribution of the populations of the Arctic states and regions are useful for policymakers for planning purposes. This paper presents and analyses the most recent population projections undertaken for the Arctic states and regions. Global population growth is projected to continue rising, from the current total of 7.4 billion to 10 billion in 2055. The population of the Arctic, as defined here, is predicted to change little, with a projected population increase of just 1%. However, there will be considerable variation in growth rates among the Arctic regions. Among the Arctic regions of Alaska, Yukon, Nunavut, Iceland, Troms, Khanty-Mansiy okrug and Chukotka, substantial population increases are projected, amounting to more than 10% over the projection period specified for each. Nordland, Finnmark, Pohjoil-Pohjanmaa (North Ostrobothnia) and Nenets autonomous okrug are projected to experience a more modest rate of growth of between 5% and 10%. The population of the Northwest Territories, Greenland, the Faroe Islands, Västerbotten, Norrbotten, Lappi, Yamal-Nenets okrug, Yakutia and Kamchatka oblast are projected to remain roughly the same, neither growing nor declining by more than 5%. Kainuu in Finland, Karelia, Komi, Arkhangel'sk, Murmansk, and Magadan in Russia are projected to undergo reductions in population of more than 5% each. Common trends identified for nearly all Arctic regions in the future are aging populations, more balanced gender ratios between men and women, increased concentrations of population within larger urban settlements, and the depopulation of smaller settlements.

Polar Geography, 2020

Projections of the future size, composition, and distribution of the populations of the Arctic st... more Projections of the future size, composition, and distribution of the populations of the Arctic states and regions are useful for policy
makers in planning. This paper presents and analyzes the most
recent population projections done for the Arctic states and regions. Global population growth is projected to continue increasing from the current total of 7.4 billion to 10 billion in 2055. The population of the Arctic, as defined here, is projected to have little change with a projected population increase of just 1%. However, there will be considerable variation in growth rates among Arctic regions. Alaska, Yukon, Nunavut, Iceland, Troms, the Khanty-Mansiy Okrug, and Chukotka are projected to have a substantial population increase of more than 10% over the
projection period. Nordland, Finnmark, North Ostrobothnia, and
Nenets Autonomous Okrug are projected to have more modest
growth of between 5% and 10%. Kainuu in Finland, Karelia, Komi,
Arkhangel’sk, Murmansk, and Magadan in Russia are projected to
have population declines of more than 5%. Common trends seen in
nearly all Arctic regions in the future are aging populations, more
balanced gender ratios between men and women, increased
population concentration into larger urban settlements, and the
depopulation of smaller settlements.

Polar Record, 2019

Like the northern periphery regions of other Arctic countries, the Russian North had a higher mal... more Like the northern periphery regions of other Arctic countries, the Russian North had a higher male–female sex ratio than the rest of the country. During the two decades following the breakup of the Soviet Union, the male sex ratio in the Russian North declined considerably, from 101 males per 100 females in 1989 to 92 in 2010. The regions and population of the Russian North were greatly impacted by the shift in northern development approaches from the centrally planned system of the Soviet Union to the market-oriented system of Russia. This paper examines the decline in the male population in the Russian North based on data from the 1989, 2002 and 2010 population censuses. The paper finds that only one quarter of the decline in the male sex ratio in the Russian North can be attributed to higher male outmigration and that three quarters are the result of significantly higher and widening gaps between females and males in life expectancy. The conclusion is that men in the Russian North coped with the social and economic upheavals by dying prematurely not by migrating. The leading causes of death for men were cardiovascular diseases and external causes such as murder, suicide and accidents.

Migration Policy Institute, 2018

A small, isolated country in the north Atlantic, Iceland is known for its unique landscape of vol... more A small, isolated country in the north Atlantic, Iceland is known for its unique landscape of volcanoes, glaciers, and waterfalls. It experienced a spectacular banking crisis in 2008 and an equally spectacular eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in 2010, which temporarily brought European air travel to a halt. Due to its geographic location, the population remained isolated and quite homogeneous until recently. As late as the mid-1990s, foreigners who acquired Icelandic citizenship were required to adopt an Icelandic name. However, strong economic growth over the past several decades and a booming tourism sector more recently have drawn greater numbers of immigrants to the island nation—bringing increased diversity to the once-homogeneous society.

This article traces the history of emigration from and immigration to Iceland, focusing on the growth of the immigrant population over the last several decades, the diversification of origins, and various government responses to these changes as Iceland tries to balance economic growth with preserving its culture and language.

NORDREGIO REPORT 2019:6, 2019

This paper is one output of the 2017 to 2020 Nordic Thematic Group for Sustainable Rural Developm... more This paper is one output of the 2017 to 2020 Nordic Thematic Group for Sustainable Rural Development. The purpose of this project is to provide policy makers at the national, regional, and municipal levels an idea of what the size, composition, and geographic distribution of the rural populations in the Nordic countries might look like in 2040. It does this by compiling the population projections done by the national statistical offices of the Nordic countries to examine the size, regional concentration, age distribution, and other characteristics of the rural populations in the Nordic countries in the future. The future size of the both the urban and rural populations are examined to provide context
for the expected population trends in rural areas. A separate policy brief is available which summarizes the key findings.

NORDREGIO WORKING PAPER 2018:1, 2018

The paper starts by examining migration trends into the Nordic countries over recent decades, exa... more The paper starts by examining migration trends into the Nordic countries over recent decades, examining migration as a component of population change, immigration and emigration, net migration by citizenship, net migration by sex, immigration by country of origin, total population of foreign origin, foreign-born people by age, reasons for migration, and flows of refugees and asylum seekers. The conclusions concern the
implications of the integration of recent flows.