Kuan-Hui Elaine Lin | National Taiwan Normal University (original) (raw)

Uploads

Papers by Kuan-Hui Elaine Lin

The agricultural impacts of tropical cyclones remain the primary threat to livelihoods in Southea... more The agricultural impacts of tropical cyclones remain the primary threat to livelihoods in Southeast Asia and Latin America. The impacts take two forms, one is windthrow, i.e. uprooted or snapped trees, caused by strong wind, and the other is hydrogeological effects from heavy precipitation. The empirical effects are different for the two forms. However, little previous research has been devoted to distinguishing the two effects to estimate agricultural losses, and even fewer have used moderate-resolution (10 m resolution) images. This study presents a methodological progression to address this deficiency. First, an object-based image analytical method distinguishes the two effects using Satellite Pour l'Observation de la Terre – 5 satellite images. Various object-based features are compared to acquire their spectral, textural, and geometric characteristics for the interpretation. Second, a public participation geographical information system (PPGIS) approach is developed that combines community empowerment and collaborative field survey to rebuild and represent ground truth during disasters for image validation. The method is applied to a case study of typhoon Bopha that struck Compostela Valley, eastern Mindanao, the Philippines in December 2012. Our assessment indicates that the producer accuracy reaches 88.9% for debris and mud flows and 83.3% for windthrow, and user accuracy reaches 94% and 81%, respectively. The result indicates that the proposed methods have great potential for distinguishing the two effects. It also highlights the efficacy of integrating PPGIS with remote sensing, for image validation purposes and in practice to enhance local residents' environmental consciousness for enhancing adaptive capacity in resource limited regions.

The theoretical relationships between resilience and vulnerability have long been debated, but li... more The theoretical relationships between resilience and vulnerability have long been debated, but limited research has been done to test their relationships from an empirical perspective. This study presents an important case to demonstrate the empirical verification of the relationships. After reviewing relevant theories, we propose revisions of two widely adopted disaster risk and vulnerability formulas and apply them in a Taiwanese case of Typhoon Morakot. The data incorporate four natural hazard data sets, a Taiwan Social Change Survey of nonvictims as the reference group, and a longitudinal data set of Social Impact and Recovery Survey for Typhoon Morakot victims (2010–2012). With those data, two sets of models were constructed based on the two revised formulas. The first set of models estimates a disaster risk, defined as the probability and expected value of victimization determined by the typhoon hazard, household’s exposure, and contextual vulnerability composed of social class, ethnicity, education, and family status. The second set of models estimates an affected household’s outcome vulnerability, defined as the continuous trajectory of household living condition consisted of exposure, contextual vulnerability, and resilience. In the second set, outcome vulnerability is measured through household income pre- and post-disaster to depict the impact and dynamism; resilience is measured through social capital variables. Logit, ordinal linear regression (OLS), and fixed-effect regression were applied to statistically estimate the models. The results highlight that contextual vulnerability deteriorates the disaster risk of typhoon. Resilience has an impact on outcome vulnerability, but its effect is uncertain, likely to be restricted in the disaster recovery.

在聯合國國際減災辦公室及政府間氣候變遷小組所定義的風險分析架構上，本研究將地震風險視為地震危害度(hazard)、人口-建物暴露性(exposure)與脆弱性(vulnerability)的總體... more 在聯合國國際減災辦公室及政府間氣候變遷小組所定義的風險分析架構上，本研究將地震風險視為地震危害度(hazard)、人口-建物暴露性(exposure)與脆弱性(vulnerability)的總體函數。以集集地震數據作為分析案例，我們整合了人口、房屋稅、所得稅、強地動與集集地震各村里死亡人數的數據，並透過建立四個嵌套(nested)統計模型，以Poisson迴歸模型進行估計，分別檢測代表危害度、暴露性與脆弱性之不同變量及其交互項變量，對地震死亡人數的影響。研究結果顯示，模型中所有變量對於地震死亡人數都具有統計上顯著的效應，其中地震的災害變量與人口建物暴露變量的效果最為顯著，震動強度、斷層經過與集合式住宅倒塌三者的交互作用，是造成集集地震死亡的首要因素。和這些變量相較下，社會脆弱性的變量(性別比、幼年人口、家戶所得、所得標準差)雖然較弱，但有顯著的邊際效用，會擴大地震死亡人數。在學術價值上，本研究突顯跨領域理論與數據整合，對於分析與理解地震災難風險的重要性。在社會實務上，本研究建議應強化都市規劃、區域計畫、建築法規與社會扶助等機制，以降低對地震災害的暴險率與社會脆弱性。

The paper assesses the loss and damage from flash floods/landslide, the level of adaptive capacit... more The paper assesses the loss and damage from flash floods/landslide,
the level of adaptive capacity, and the livelihood vulnerabilities of different
groups of communities due to typhoon Bopha, which affected many
communities in the province of Compostela Valley in December 2012. Huge
rocks and timbers/logs buried many community settlements, business areas and farms. A survey was conducted in three case study villages in New Bataan and the survey data were analysed using descriptive and quantitative (factor and cluster) analyses. Typologies for the four clusters according to level of adaptive capacity were identified including very high adaptive capacity (cluster 2), high adaptive capacity (cluster 1), low adaptive capacity (cluster 4) and very low adaptive capacity (cluster 3). The results of the analysis showed that recovery potential of the respondents from the most affected village and who belong in clusters 2 and 4 will depend a lot on the sustainability of livelihood assistance.

Loss and damage from floods and landslides are escalating in the Philippines due to increasing fr... more Loss and damage from floods and landslides are escalating in the
Philippines due to increasing frequency and intensity of typhoons. This paper investigates the types and scale of loss and damage in two municipalities that were affected by typhoon-induced floods and landslides in 2004 and 2012. It assesses people’s preferences on adaptation measures and perceptions on human-nature links on occurrence of disasters. It reveals that human loss and property damage are causing psychological distress to affected people, undermining capacity to adapt to the next disasters. Many vulnerable people are not aware of the link between climate and land use change. Moreover, many depend on unsustainable land use for source of livelihoods particularly after disasters. The preference for measures to reduce landslide risks through
reforestation and logging/mining prevention is thus low. Insurance is not a preferred mechanism for reducing risks because regular payment of premium is not affordable to vulnerable people.

In Kasperson, Rober E. and Mimi Berberian (eds.) Integrating Science and Policy- Vulnerability an... more In Kasperson, Rober E. and Mimi Berberian (eds.) Integrating Science and Policy- Vulnerability and Resilience in Global Environmental Change. Washington, D.C.: Earthscan. Pp.233-268

從化石燃料走向再生(乾淨)能源; 從咖啡色經濟走向綠色經濟; 從如常模型(business-as-usual, BAU)走向低碳經濟與彈性社會。在2015年底的COP21巴黎會議後，很有可能不再... more 從化石燃料走向再生(乾淨)能源; 從咖啡色經濟走向綠色經濟; 從如常模型(business-as-usual, BAU)走向低碳經濟與彈性社會。在2015年底的COP21巴黎會議後，很有可能不再只是國際政治談判的願景，而是一個具有法定約束力的國際減排規範，以達成全球均溫增加不高於 2°C的轉型目標。然而更艱辛的問題是，該如何在全球各行動體不同的利益與不同的行動尺度上進行轉型？

The theoretical importance of understanding how livelihoods shape local vulnerability to the effe... more The theoretical importance of understanding how livelihoods shape local vulnerability to the effects of climate change has received broad attention, but with relatively few attempts to produce and implement an analytical framework based on the theory. This study develops a livelihood vulnerability analytical framework, and applies it to the case of rural indigenous communities of Taiwan that are regularly exposed to typhoons and associated geological hazards. Measures of the factors influencing how typhoons impact these indigenous communities (sensitivities), and of the abilities of such communities to respond in anticipatory or reactive modes (adaptive capacities) are also included. The study is based on mixed qualitative and quantitative analysis, combining data from in‐person interviews and surveys from 2006 to 2009. Livelihood vulnerability narratives are developed accordingly, together with a spatially‐explicit livelihood vulnerability index to diagnose the dimensionality and the distribution of vulnerability across the area. Three patterns of livelihood vulnerability are found including least vulnerable communities in the remotest area with relatively abundant livelihood capitals to mitigate vulnerability, intermediate vulnerability communities which are doubly exposed to market and typhoon‐associated stresses, and the most vulnerable communities trapped in poverty and vulnerability loops. The patterns reveal strong spatial relationships of social development beginning with the Japanese colonial government (1895–1945) and continuing through the Kuomintang Chinese government (1945–present). This historical development shaped the original human‐environmental conditions in each community and the inequality continues to expand due to increased hazard risk and inappropriate policy interventions. This study highlights the need for future research to develop a continuous program for longitudinally tracking the dynamism of the three patterns of vulnerability.

脆弱性研究在2001年政府間氣候變遷第二工作小組以『衝擊、適應性與脆弱性』為題，重新定義脆弱性概念，使其成為氣候變遷科學的學術典範後，脆弱性成為氣候變遷、災害風險、災難管理、永續發展等學門的重要... more 脆弱性研究在2001年政府間氣候變遷第二工作小組以『衝擊、適應性與脆弱性』為題，重新定義脆弱性概念，使其成為氣候變遷科學的學術典範後，脆弱性成為氣候變遷、災害風險、災難管理、永續發展等學門的重要研究領域。儘管脆弱性在國際上具有相當高的應用性，然台灣學界對脆弱性領域的認識與應用普遍多偏向實證主義取徑下的災害風險分析，而忽略了脆弱性自二次大戰以來從行為地理學、後馬克思主義、實在論、後現代主義、女性主義、生態理論等思潮吸取養份所形成的豐富多元樣貌。此侷限也反應出雖然1990年代末開始，英文期刊便出現不少優秀的論文以回顧脆弱性概念的發展與演繹，然華文學界本身卻少有優良的回顧論文。因此本文從二十世紀中災害研究的典範起始，引領讀者認識二次大戰後學術典範移轉所演育出的兩個脆弱性早期最重要的思潮，並論述這些早期思潮如何和其他思想論辯與交融，形成近代脆弱性多元論述的形態。文中梳理了當代脆弱性在不同知識論下所形成的五種不同分析取徑，並深入探討當前台灣脆弱性研究在這廣博的理論思潮、研究方法與社會應用上的特性。文末批判了當前台灣脆弱性研究在思維與方法上的單向與局限性，並提出開拓不同思潮以進行台灣本土脆弱性(適應性)研究之必要，以形成台灣在其特殊性上的主體論述，並有助於增強和國際學界的對話。

因為人類活動而引起的環境快速變化，在幾年之間已嚴重衝擊地球的生物、物理及化學系統，此現象不僅呈現在地球總體的指數變化中，如平均氣溫的不斷升高等，地球上的每個次區域與次系統，也都面臨不同程度氣候變... more 因為人類活動而引起的環境快速變化，在幾年之間已嚴重衝擊地球的生物、物理及化學系統，此現象不僅呈現在地球總體的指數變化中，如平均氣溫的不斷升高等，地球上的每個次區域與次系統，也都面臨不同程度氣候變遷而造成的災害衝擊，極端與異常氣候的發生更常在地區 (local) 造成嚴重的威脅。這些現象都對人類社會造成極大的衝擊，並說明了人類系統在面對自然環境變化時所顯現出的脆弱性，此外，更認知到人類系統不同的特質與能力，會反應受不同環境衝擊發生後的影響程度，因此近年來國際上在進行環境衝擊研究時多從衝擊為主的研究取徑 (impacts-led approach)，轉移到以脆弱性為主的取徑 (vulnerability-led approach)。
以衝擊為主的研究取徑主要是分析物理性災害的演化，傳統上乃根據環境變遷模式及人口預測，以檢視未來哪些人類群體及系統會曝露在此災害下。而脆弱性研究取徑則處理決定人們如何回應並處理災害底層之社會、經濟、政治、文化及制度性因素，透過因素分析以評估一個地區、系統或人類群體，在面對一範圍內現存或預期衝擊或災害時的脆弱性。因此脆弱性取徑在評估人們如何適應 (adapt) 或加強能力以面對現存威脅的需求上是很有用的分析工具。為了掌握環境變化對人類所造成的衝擊並對其進行評估，國際上許多科學團體正積極建立脆弱性的評估系統，以確認造成人類脆弱的環境與社會經濟因素，並找尋降低脆弱性的方法以增強人們對環境變遷的適應。

The paper reports on the World Social Science (WSS) Fellows seminar on Risk Interpretation and Ac... more The paper reports on the World Social Science (WSS)
Fellows seminar on Risk Interpretation and Action (RIA),
undertaken in New Zealand in December, 2013. This
seminar was coordinated by the WSS Fellows program of
the International Social Science Council (ISSC), the RIA
working group of the Integrated Research on Disaster
Risk (IRDR) program, the IRDR International Center of
Excellence Taipei, the International START Secretariat
and the Royal Society of New Zealand. Twenty-five
early career researchers from around the world were
selected to review the RIA framework under the theme
of ‘decision-making under conditions of uncertainty’, and
develop novel theoretical approaches to respond to and
improve this framework. Six working groups emerged
during the seminar: 1. the assessment of water-related
risks in megacities; 2. rethinking risk communication;
3. the embodiment of uncertainty; 4. communication
in resettlement and reconstruction phases; 5. the
integration of indigenous knowledge in disaster risk
reduction; and 6. multi-scale policy implementation for
natural hazard risk reduction. This article documents
the seminar and initial outcomes from the six groups
organized; and concludes with the collective views of
the participants on the RIA framework.

This study discusses the relationship between poverty and vulnerability. It investigates how vuln... more This study discusses the relationship between poverty and vulnerability. It investigates how vulnerability can be integrated into the livelihood framework for poverty alleviation and vulnerability mitigation, as well as the development of adaptive livelihood mechanisms to combat increased risk from natural disasters. Vulnerability is conventionally viewed as risk factors threatening livelihoods; this study provides new insights into vulnerability by viewing vulnerability as endogenous to the development process and embedded in everyday lives and livelihood practices. Poverty and vulnerability reduction are holistically grounded in the coupling of human and environmental systems to facilitate positive feedback loop between human economic activity and the environment. Social and cultural capitals are highlighted in this study for the significant role they play in inspiring positive change and empowering inner (grass roots) and outer (social welfare institutions) networks as well as social learning to help people to adapt during development.

While disaster studies researchers usually view risk as a function of hazard, exposure, and vulne... more While disaster studies researchers usually view risk as a function of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, few studies have systematically examined the relationships among the various physical and socioeconomic determinants underlying disasters, and fewer have 5 done so through seismic risk analysis. In the context of the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan, this study constructs five hypothetical models to test dierent determinants that aect disaster fatality at the village level, namely seismic hazard intensity, population, building fragility, demographics and socioeconomics. The Poisson Regression Model is used to estimate the impact of natural hazards and social factors on 10 fatality. Results indicate that although all of the determinants have an impact on the specific dimension of seismic fatality, some indicators of social inequality, such as gender ratio, dependency ratio, income and its SD, are the driving determinants deteriorating vulnerability to seismic risk. These findings have strong social implications for policy interventions to mitigate such disasters. This study presents an interdisciplinary 15 investigation into social and physical determinants in seismic risk.