Anne Goujon | Austrian Academy of Sciences (original) (raw)

Papers by Anne Goujon

The relative sizes of secular and religious populations belong to the most important social chara... more The relative sizes of secular and religious populations belong to the most important social characteristics of each country. In the wake of religious change, family behaviour, including marriage and childbearing, is likely to be altered. European demographic trends, including those of late childbearing and low fertility are also likely to change when there is a growth of religious groups where conversion/secularisation rates are low and childbearing levels are high. We project the membership size of the various religious groupings until 2051 for Austria, a country where the religion question is included in the census, allowing detailed and accurate projections to be made. We consider relative fertility rates, religion-specific emigration and immigration, conversion rates and intergenerational transmission of religious affiliation. Our estimates suggest that the Catholic proportion will decrease from 75% in 2001 to less than 50% in 2051. The Muslim population, which grew from 1% in 1981 to 4% in 2001, will represent 14% to 18% of the Austrian population by 2051, and could represent up to 32% of those below 15 years of age. The Protestants' population share will be stable at around 4%, while up to 34% of the population will be without religion.

ABSTRACT This paper addresses the possible impact of rising smallholder incomes on local non-agri... more ABSTRACT This paper addresses the possible impact of rising smallholder incomes on local non-agricultural development in a case study area located in the Eastern Cape province of South Africa. It determines how increased rural incomes are spent on a mix of goods and services, and debates the implications of these spending patterns for growth in rural areas through the alleviation of demand constraints. These results make it possible to identify areas of intervention necessary for sustaining growth originating from stimulus to tradable agriculture from economic reforms. This paper thus contributes to an emerging literature on the possible impact of promoting smallholder agriculture in South Africa on rural livelihoods.

Elsevier eBooks, 2019

The sheer number of population has been for long the main (and only) consideration about human po... more The sheer number of population has been for long the main (and only) consideration about human population growth in ecological engineering and in other fields that are reflecting on the sustainability of life systems on earth. However with the availability of data on human behavior, we now know that what is important for the future is not only how many people there will be but what they will do in their everyday life which could impact the life systems surrounding them and how equipped they will be to face emerging challenges. Nevertheless, the challenges exist, and in the coming decades, the survival and well-being of humans and the security of environmental resources that support human existence will continue to be challenged by rapid population growth, particularly in less developed regions that are the main contributors to world population that is, sub-Saharan Africa and Southern Asia. While the number of humans is likely to peak within the next 100 years, still a few additional billion people will live on earth. Ecological engineering will be key in understanding the complexities associated with human population growth and devise ways to influence and meet the challenges created by their behavior within life systems.

Economie Et Statistique, Dec 21, 2020

What is the benefit of probabilistic projections? The high and low scenarios proposed by Insee fo... more What is the benefit of probabilistic projections? The high and low scenarios proposed by Insee for France allow us to set the limits of the uncertainty, while the probabilistic projections incorporate the risk in different ways: there are no variants but rather a set of scenarios built on the basis of probability densities. The main advantage of these projections is being able to offer not only a central estimate but also a confidence interval for any derived indicator (for example, the proportion of women among the over 65s in 2070). Vianney Costemalle engages in this exercise for France. In addition to proving the feasibility of these projections by actually carrying them out, he shows some differences compared to the usual Insee projections. The central value of projected fertility for 2070 is the same (1.95 children per woman), but the uncertainty is higher: the 95% confidence interval, assimilated here to the gap between the high and low hypotheses, is [1.63; 2.26] compared with [1.8; 2.1] for the high and low scenarios. Conversely, the mortality scenarios are both more pessimistic and narrower: 88.4 years and 92.0 years for life expectancy at birth for men and women in 2070, plus or minus a year, compared with 90 and 93 years, plus or minus three years, in the high and low scenarios. How do we evaluate the projections? One way of evaluating past projections consists in comparing them with actual developments. Nico Keilman has shown in previous research that, for 40 years, the projections have not come close to reality, concluding that we need to make probabilistic projections (Keilman, 2008). Here, he proposes a method for evaluating this type of projection, and applies it to those of three countries, France, Norway and the Netherlands. This allows him to revisit the projections he participated in 10 years ago and to show that they turned out to be more accurate than official projections, except in the case of France where the adjustments made in 1999 and 2006 were not correctly taken into account in the estimation of the parameters. He also shows that the errors are more marked for certain age groups, either because there is more uncertainty here or because the adjustments related specifically to those ages. How do we build the projections? The components method used in the projections consists in estimating, for each year, net migration by sex and age, deaths by sex and age on the basis of the mortality rates, and the total number of births on the basis of the number of women of childbearing age and the fertility rates by age. The method is very effective as the sex and age of the inhabitants are very easy to forecast: girls aged 10 in 2020 will become women aged 60 in 2070, if they are still alive. These very severe restrictions regarding sex and age enable us to develop population projections that are much more robust than other projections (for example, economic projections) and to propose long time horizons of at least 50 years. Yet other dimensions can also be taken into consideration: residential lifestyle for household projections (Jacquot, 2012), professional situation for labour force projections (Koubi & Marrakchi, 2017), health status for dependent population projections (Lecroart, 2013; Larbi & Roy, 2019); these are traditionally conducted by Insee or DREES by projecting the proportions and applying them to the results of the population projections. The projections can be more complex and dynamic, for example projections by area of residence for sub-national projections (Desrivierre, 2017), in which the rates of internal migration are used to determine the number of internal migrants, with overall consistency guaranteed as each exit from a region becomes an entry into another. Calculating projections by taking into account dimensions other than sex and age? We could also include other dimensions in the projections. This is what Anne Goujon presents in her discussion of the difficulties involved in the exercise using projections based on level of education. She reviews the methods used for multi-state population projections and shows their potential added value (measure of human capital, feedback from education on fertility components, migrations, mortality). By way of example, she addresses other possible additional dimensions: diet, language spoken, political or religious opinions, and References Desrivierre, D. (2017). D'ici 2050, la population augmenterait dans toutes les régions de métropole. Insee Première N° 1652.

Demographic Research, Feb 17, 2022

BACKGROUND Ageing is central in the European Union (EU) policy debate, with all member states bei... more BACKGROUND Ageing is central in the European Union (EU) policy debate, with all member states being concerned about implications of growing shares of older people and declining shares of working-age populations for the sustainability of welfare and health systems. Beyond this general context, ageing patterns differ largely across EU territories because of distinctive demographic and spatial dynamics. OBJECTIVE We study the relative contribution of cohort turnover and migration flows in shaping the demographic evolution of the working-age population at the local level. METHODS Using Eurostat data, we decompose the changes that have occurred in the working-age population into cohort turnover and net migration effects for the 2015-2019 period, at territorial (NUTS3 and urban-intermediate-rural) levels. RESULTS The majority (63%) of European (NUTS3) territories experienced negative cohort turnover effects alongside positive net migration effects during the 2015-2019 period. However, in only 27% of these territories, net migration counterbalanced the deficit in the working-age population due to cohort turnover. CONCLUSIONS In 2015-2019, migration was the underlying force in the evolution of the working-age population, partially compensating for the loss of population due to the cohort turnover. This effect was particularly pronounced in urban areas.

Routledge eBooks, Dec 23, 2021

Population and Environment

The recent debate on population dynamics and climate change has highlighted the importance of ass... more The recent debate on population dynamics and climate change has highlighted the importance of assessing and quantifying disparities in populations’ vulnerability and adopting a forward-looking manner when considering the potential impacts of climate change on different communities and regions. In this article, we overlay demographic projections based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and climate change projections derived from the Representative Concentration Pathways. We focus on populations that are likely to be the most exposed to climate change in the future, namely, African populations in a comparative global context. First, we estimate the share of populations living in rural areas, who would be more dependent on agriculture, as one of the economic sectors mostly affected by climate change. Second, we explore how climate change would worsen the condition of populations living below the poverty line. Finally, we account for low levels of education, as further factors limitin...

International journal of higher education, Feb 6, 2015

Europe's Bologna Process has been identified as a pioneering approach in regional cooperation wit... more Europe's Bologna Process has been identified as a pioneering approach in regional cooperation with respect to the area of higher education. To address the challenges of African higher education, policymakers are recommending regional cooperation that uses the Bologna Process as a model. Based on these recommendations, the African Union Commission (AUC) in 2007 developed a strategic document on higher education harmonization. As higher education reforms are context-specific, the question arises as to how the policy of harmonization of higher education systems in Africa can be implemented in a way that fosters greater regional integration, taking into consideration the context of African higher education systems. This research, which is based mainly on a review of European and African official documents, focuses on the reform issues proposed by the AUC in the harmonization process and compares them with those of the Bologna Process.

Demographic Research, Mar 16, 2010

Using demographic multi-state, cohort-component methods, we produce projections for 120 countries... more Using demographic multi-state, cohort-component methods, we produce projections for 120 countries (covering 93% of the world population in 2005) by five-year age groups, sex, and four levels of educational attainment for the years 2005-2050. Taking into account differentials in fertility and mortality by education level, we present the first systematic global educational attainment projections according to four widely differing education scenarios. The results show the possible range of future educational attainment trends around the world, thereby contributing to long-term economic and social planning at the national and international levels, and to the assessment of the feasibility of international education goals.

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Sep 1, 2007

We report here spatially explicit scenario interpretations for population and economic activity (... more We report here spatially explicit scenario interpretations for population and economic activity (GDP) for the time period 1990 to 2100 based on three scenarios (A2, B1, and B2) from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). At the highest degree of spatial detail, the scenario indicators are calculated at a 0.5 by 0.5 degree resolution. All three scenarios follow the qualitative scenario characteristics, as outlined in the original SRES scenarios. Two scenarios (B1 and B2) also follow (with minor adjustments due to scenario improvements) the original SRES quantifications at the level of 4 and 11 world regions respectively. The quantification of the original SRES A2 scenario has been revised to reflect recent changing perceptions on the demographic outlook of world population growth. In this revised "high population growth" scenario, A2r world population reaches some 12 billion by 2100 (as opposed to some 15 billion in the original SRES A2 scenario) and is characterized by a "delayed fertility transition" that is also mirrored in a delayed (economic) development catch-up, resulting in an initially stagnating and subsequently only very slow reduction in income disparities. The spatially explicit scenario interpretation proceeds via two steps. Through a combination of decomposition and optimization methods, world regional scenario results are first disaggregated to the level of 185 countries. In a subsequent second step, national results are further disaggregated to a grid cell level, taking urbanization and regional (rural-urban) income disparities explicitly into account. A distinguishing feature of the spatially explicit

Confluences en Méditerranée, 2010

Distribution électronique Cairn.info pour L'Harmattan. Distribution électronique Cairn.info pour ... more Distribution électronique Cairn.info pour L'Harmattan. Distribution électronique Cairn.info pour L'Harmattan. La reproduction ou représentation de cet article, notamment par photocopie, n'est autorisée que dans les limites des conditions générales d'utilisation du site ou, le cas échéant, des conditions générales de la licence souscrite par votre établissement. Toute autre reproduction ou représentation, en tout ou partie, sous quelque forme et de quelque manière que ce soit, est interdite sauf accord préalable et écrit de l'éditeur, en dehors des cas prévus par la législation en vigueur en France. Il est précisé que son stockage dans une base de données est également interdit. Article disponible en ligne à l'adresse Article disponible en ligne à l'adresse https://www.cairn.info/revue-confluences-mediterranee-2010-4-page-33.htm Découvrir le sommaire de ce numéro, suivre la revue par email, s'abonner... Flashez ce QR Code pour accéder à la page de ce numéro sur Cairn.info.

Population Studies-a Journal of Demography, Mar 1, 2012

All articles available through Birkbeck ePrints are protected by intellectual property law, inclu... more All articles available through Birkbeck ePrints are protected by intellectual property law, including copyright law. Any use made of the contents should comply with the relevant law.

Demographic Research, Oct 11, 2017

BACKGROUND The unusual fertility increase experienced by several Arab countries in the recent yea... more BACKGROUND The unusual fertility increase experienced by several Arab countries in the recent years is particularly visible in Egypt, where fertility declined very slowly after 2000 and started to increase again between 2008 and 2014. OBJECTIVE We first check the quality and measurement accuracy of Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). The analysis confirms the trend since 2000. We descriptively look for possible underlying causes. METHODS We use quality criteria to check DHS data and control for tempo effect. We also perform a proximate determinants analysis to study the mechanisms affecting fertility, particularly marriage and contraceptive use patterns. RESULTS The trend in fertility, which has been at a level slightly below 3.5 children per woman since 2000, is due to an increase in parity one-to-three children and a steady decline in parity four-and-more children. While changes in contraception use had the largest and a growing suppressing effect before 2000, after the turn of the century there was no change in the impact of either marriage or contraception on fertility. CONCLUSIONS We find that well-educated women between 20 and 29 years lack labour market opportunities. They may have preponed their fertility. Fertility could start declining again once the labour market situation for women has improved. On the other hand, the family model of three children is still widespread in the country.